Mini 1140 - Mafia Mishmash...Game Over!!

[Scott Brosius]

About the Haylen being suspicious being alive, I wrote that before I saw the cop softclaim. So that point no longer applies, I was posting my thoughts as I read through D3 did not realize the cop softclaim had happened.

The lynches were crappy because they were anti-town scummy players that almost begged to be lynched. The result D2 wasn't crappy, its crappy that we cannot really gather any information from it because the lynchees brought it upon themselves.

I see the vote. I have no opinion on it, there really isn't any reasoning on it except the list of players who aren't scum and that leaves me.

They both are most likely not town just based on numbers. There are 8 people left. Excluding me there are 2-3 scum out of 7. You are most likely town, that's 6. If they are both town that leaves basically 2-3 scum in 4 people. That seems wrong. I lean towards CMAR's claim being fake because of the previously mentioned JK tending to be scum claim, and that he claimed second. This allowed him to fit the one-shot flavor and not look as dubious. We already had a protective role in Weak Doctor, so JK seems a bit much as well. I also really hate his WE SHOULD LYNCH VOLK TODAY, yet doesn't even bother to place a vote on him. He also never specifically said he was a town JK.

It's not null to want a NL. It will only benefit scum. Right now we have an advantage. Why let scum lessen that advantage and decide who to kill. We get more information off of a wagon and a flip, than letting scum probably pick you off given the cop softclaim result.

Meh, volk can live for the time being. I would rather get rid of the potential scum PR.

Unvote
Vote: CMAR

Saying anytime you have an even number you should NL is flawed.

Is there anyway we can get a deadline extension at least until CMAR is replaced?

[bgg1996]

To Vollkan:
I think we're already pretty certain that I'm town. It would increase it from a 99% to a 100%.
And Regfan has listed the downsides:

1) Removal of Bggs opinion.
2) Allowance of mafia to have extra time to converse and plot possible ways to progress.
3) Removal of the ability for us to place votes to gauge reactions due to it leading to a potential lylo.
4) Addition of extra night activity leading to some players losing interest in the game and not performing as well.

And I don't think you understand what I'm saying about choice. I mean that you can't say "maybe the mafia will kill one of the others, and it won't be as bad", because they would only do so if they judged the outcome to be worse for town.

[bgg1996]

About the Haylen being suspicious being alive, I wrote that before I saw the cop softclaim. So that point no longer applies, I was posting my thoughts as I read through D3 did not realize the cop softclaim had happened.

The lynches were crappy because they were anti-town scummy players that almost begged to be lynched. The result D2 wasn't crappy, its crappy that we cannot really gather any information from it because the lynchees brought it upon themselves.

Andrew brought it upon himself for being so obviously an SK. Didn't you all see it?

I see the vote. I have no opinion on it, there really isn't any reasoning on it except the list of players who aren't scum and that leaves me.

But you aren't afraid at all? If we assume mylo, it only takes one more town vote on you, and you're dead.

They both are most likely not town just based on numbers. There are 8 people left. Excluding me there are 2-3 scum out of 7. You are most likely town, that's 6. If they are both town that leaves basically 2-3 scum in 4 people. That seems wrong.

You realize that you could say the exact same thing about any other of those 5 people. And it shouldn't start to seem wrong until it's 3 scum out of 2 people.

It's not null to want a NL. It will only benefit scum. Right now we have an advantage. Why let scum lessen that advantage and decide who to kill. We get more information off of a wagon and a flip, than letting scum probably pick you off given the cop softclaim result.

I'm not saying that NLing is the right choice, but you can't come up with any better suspicions than that guy who said to NL? You realize that this is probably mylo, don't you?

Saying anytime you have an even number you should NL is flawed.

Speaking generally, no, it isn't.
We would always want to get to lylo, as opposed to mylo.
If there are 5 town, 3 scum, we're at mylo, and we should NL.
If there are 6 town, and 2 scum, we would lynch a town, they would kill a town, and we would be at 4 town, 2 scum, mylo. If we lynched scum, they would kill town, then we lynched town, then they killed town, we would be at 3 town, 1 scum, mylo.
Either way, we would be better off if we NLed. Killing off a random town would be good in a mylo situation because it makes it more likely that scum is lynched, becuase you couldn't kill the town, because he died. Usually, the increased odds of lynching scum would outweigh the cons listed above. The exceptions are PRs and confirmed towns. We are debating whether we should do it with 2 claimed one-shot PRs, and a cop-cleared townie.

[subgenius]

And I don't think you understand what I'm saying about choice. I mean that you can't say "maybe the mafia will kill one of the others, and it won't be as bad", because they would only do so if they judged the outcome to be worse for town.

And I don't think you understand that what is worst for town is up for debate. It's a debate that I'd prefer not to go into, but it's not at all clear cut.

We already had a protective role in Weak Doctor, so JK seems a bit much as well.

This is a point that hadn't occurred to me, and it makes a certain amount of sense. It's definitely setup speculation, but I find it at least somewhat compelling.

[vollkan]

It's not null to want a NL. It will only benefit scum. Right now we have an advantage. Why let scum lessen that advantage and decide who to kill. We get more information off of a wagon and a flip, than letting scum probably pick you off given the cop softclaim result.

And if we mislynch?

I think we're already pretty certain that I'm town. It would increase it from a 99% to a 100%.
And Regfan has listed the downsides

1) Removal of Bggs opinion.
2) Allowance of mafia to have extra time to converse and plot possible ways to progress.
3) Removal of the ability for us to place votes to gauge reactions due to it leading to a potential lylo.
4) Addition of extra night activity leading to some players losing interest in the game and not performing as well.

I've quoted my response to Regfan's downsides below, because I think it highlights the theory differences between me, on one hand, and you and him (and the other NL opponents) on the other:

1) We already have bgg's opinion on everything that has transpired so far. His semi-confirmed status means his opinions are probably genuine, but that's really the end of it. Remember: NL always deprives the town of one townie's perspective, but it's still almost uniformly accepted as the best move in MYLO. I may be speaking only for myself here, but I can't conceive of any situation in which, despite his semi-confirmed status, I would trust bgg's judgment over my own.
2) I accept that this is a con; but I don't think night discussion is likely to be sufficiently influential on the day game to override the pros
3) As somebody who has designed a playstyle that pre-commits my vote, I take a particularly dim view of the value of reaction-gauging, let alone so late in a game.
4) Seriously? Given that a Happily Ever After cycle is exceptionally unlikely, the timeframe you are talking about is most likely only the length of a single night phase. I'd be amazed if anybody would lose touch with the game in that time.

1) Completely understandable.
2) I think night discussion plays a bigger part then you're giving it credit for but aruguing over this is trival.
3) I can understand where you're coming from given your play-style but I'm a big fan of reaction testing and pressure voting in certain scenarios so we're going to have to agree to disagree with this con.
4) I've seen far too many games end in mafia wins purely due to the fact that town nl'ing too often when they shouldn't have.

And I don't think you understand what I'm saying about choice. I mean that you can't say "maybe the mafia will kill one of the others, and it won't be as bad", because they would only do so if they judged the outcome to be worse for town.

That's what I thought you were saying...but my response mustn't have been clear, so I'll try to be clearer:

Mafia will make whatever decision they think will maximise their chances of winning. Factors that they will have to weigh up in making that decision include:
a) Threat posed by CMAR-town's power
b) Threat posed by Haylen-town's power
c) Threat posed by BGG-town
d) Who will be lynched if bgg-town dies?
e) Who will be lynched if CMAR-town dies?
f) Who will be lynched if Haylen-town dies?

It's overly-simplistic to think: "BGG is semi-confirmed and not going to be lynched, so no matter what he will be NKed" because it ignores all the threat judgments that scum would rationally be need to be making. It's already clear that it is by no means certain that Haylen and CMAR would be lynched, which poses a huge problem for scum if either Haylen or CMAR is town.

And so, mafia, despite being the informed faction, is left having to make difficult probability and risk judgments. For obvious reasons, I think it's a bad idea to debate what we think the best or even most likely strategy for mafia in that situation would be. Likewise, as SubG has already said, it's a bad idea to debate what would be "worst" for town. The point is that, by forcing mafia to make such a difficult judgment and force a flip, we get more information and a more accurate lynch tomorrow. In contrast, lynching today, with a high likelihood of it being MYLO, when nobody has any confident suspicions, is a recipe for disaster.

[Regfan]

NL means if any of Haylen or CMAR is legitimate and they do block a night kill at some point in the game, we will be at mylo again and not have an added mslynch.
Lynching today and if Haylen or CMAR is legitimate and do block a night kill we gain an added msylnch.

[subgenius]

NL means if any of Haylen or CMAR is legitimate and they do block a night kill at some point in the game, we will be at mylo again and not have an added mslynch.
Lynching today and if Haylen or CMAR is legitimate and do block a night kill we gain an added msylnch.

Are you confident enough in Haylen's and CMAR's alignment and ability to correctly pick their targets to potentially leave the game in their hands if we mislynch?

In addition, you haven't even voted for anyone, so unless you're going to push for someone's lynch, arguing against a NL amounts to little more than idle chitchat since the way things are going now, we'll probably end up NL'ing at the deadline anyway. Who do you want to lynch?

[Scott Brosius]

If we mislynch, then maybe its 3v3 worst case scenario. Not every scum WC is 1/2 of the remaining players either. Anyway, if we do mislynch, then these potential one-shot redirecting, JK, whatever else is out there should act. There could easily be 2 scum. I think we have enough solid scum suspects that a lynch is worthwhile. Also a flip gives town PRs a better chance to help town. If there's another role tracker, hider, anything, it is one less option to investigate/jail/redirect/whatever and allows them to make more informed decisions.

@bgg Concerning the vote on me, I'm not worried. On that line of logic, I voted CMAR and many others have chimed in after. Is it telling that scum haven't rushed in to hammer CMAR under your logic that it only takes 2 on a wagon to setup a potential mislynch? Doesn't that give scumpoints to CMAR?

[Scott Brosius]

Anyone not voting looks like they are skulking around waiting for the right opportunity to place a vote. We are very close to deadline.

[Regfan]

Are you confident enough in Haylen's and CMAR's alignment and ability to correctly pick their targets to potentially leave the game in their hands if we mislynch?

In addition, you haven't even voted for anyone, so unless you're going to push for someone's lynch, arguing against a NL amounts to little more than idle chitchat since the way things are going now, we'll probably end up NL'ing at the deadline anyway. Who do you want to lynch?

I don't believe both are scum, so yes I'm confident enough that one is town and I believe their likelyhood to pick correctly is bettered by lynching today. I honestly am failing to see any real advantage towards a no lynch, so yesI am indeed confident enough to lynch today. In regards to my reads at the moment:

People I'm not comfortable lynching today:

vollkan - Null, haven't found anything allignment revealing by him, I can understand his push for a NL in some way because he doesn't trust Bggs judgement.
curiouskarmadog - Had a minor town-read on before he replaced out, Scottys intial posts solidify this read, not comfortable lynching today.
bgg1996 - Cop clear.
subgenius - Consistent town-read on him.

People I would consider lynching today:

Maxous - Null at the moment, he seems to be floating through, I'll need to do some more reading into him before making a final judgement
Haylen/CryMeARiver - One of these two are scum, that much I'm sure of, going to need to do some re-reading on them though but at the moment if I had to place a vote it would be on CMAR.

[subgenius]

I still think we should lynch today though.

I will be voting Cry Me A River before the end of the day. He is my pick.

Why the change of heart?

[bgg1996]

Alright. I think it's either Scott Brosius/Maxous/CryMeARiver, or Scott Brosius/Maxous. Either way, we can get away with lynching CMAR today.
But only if you all promise to lynch the other two if CMAR comes up clean.

[bgg1996]

Actually, it probably could be other combinations, but they all either include CMAR, so it's still good.

[havingfitz]

Votecount 3.6:

CryMeARiver - 2 (subgenius, Scott Brosius)

Scott Brosius - 1 (bgg1996)
No Lynch - 1 (vollkan)

Not voting: (CryMeARiver, Haylen, Regfan, Maxous)

With 8 players left it’s 5 to lynch.

CryMeARiver did not find a replacement for himself as requested and did not answer his 2nd prod. Thanks CMAR. He is being replaced.

I will extend the deadline until 0200 EST, April 28th. This date will not be extended regardless of when/if a replacement is found.

Day 3 deadline is 0200 EST, April 28th.

[Regfan]

Haylen - Correct me if mistaken but I believe we're still waiting for your reads on everyone in the game.

[Haylen]

Regfan, the time difference between your post and my last post is roughly 9 hrs. Which happens to be the 9 hours I particularly enjoy sleeping in. I'm getting sick of people making comments like that when they can't be bothered to find out someone's timezone and think about what that person might be doing during that time.

Who I would be happy lynching today and a summarised why

CryMeARiver - really really not liking his one shot JK claim. All scum would need to do to confirm it is no kill and have him say he jailkeeped a really scummy townie, then get that townie lynched and win the game. Plus how he's played during the game and saying how he knows he's played badly. Didn't he claim early aswell?

Vollkun - I'm not liking how he jumped on what subgenius had twisted. Even if Subgenius had got it wrong, it still looked opportunistic.

Subgenius - For misrepping me. But I can't remember if he made a good defense against that. I want to re-read our 'exchange'.

Not sure.

Bgg - I DON'T KNOW. I might be being paranoid or I might not be.
No lynch - I will feel really gutted if it's mylo right now and we mislynch a townie. Even with power roles. Would this be the safer option? If so why the heck is Vollkun pushing it if I think he's scum? To look good? I don't know.

[Maxous]

Scott switched his vote from Vollkan quite easily. Particulary after stating "Vollkan is surely scum"

NL means if any of Haylen or CMAR is legitimate and they do block a night kill at some point in the game, we will be at mylo again and not have an added mslynch.
Lynching today and if Haylen or CMAR is legitimate and do block a night kill we gain an added msylnch.

If Haylen or CMAR blocked a kill then we would know who they blocked, therefore knowing somebody is mafia.

If we mislynch, then maybe its 3v3 worst case scenario. Not every scum WC is 1/2 of the remaining players either.

That is not an assumption we can afford to base decisions on.

Doesn't that give scumpoints to CMAR?

Maybe.
Alternatively it could be a 2 mafia set-up.
Or (assuming you are town) it could mean Subgenius is mafia

I still think we should lynch today though.

I will be voting Cry Me A River before the end of the day. He is my pick.

Why the change of heart?

What change of heart?
The first statement is 'I would like to lynch.'
The second statement is 'I would like to lynch River'

No lynch - I will feel really gutted if it's mylo right now and we mislynch a townie. Even with power roles. Would this be the safer option?

Depends.
In a all-vanilla set-up yes.
Factoring in power roles quite possibly not - Such as yours for example.

And I don't think you understand what I'm saying about choice. I mean that you can't say "maybe the mafia will kill one of the others, and it won't be as bad", because they would only do so if they judged the outcome to be worse for town.

Not quite, it's based on what is best for the mafia.
While the two often interwine they don't always.
For example the mafia might see your suspicion of town player X and think 'If we leave Bgg alive he will vote player X to get lynched. So we should kill this other town player A who suspects mafia player Y, so mafia player Y won't get lynched. This way we can win in the next day period.'

Alright. I think it's either Scott Brosius/Maxous/CryMeARiver, or Scott Brosius/Maxous. Either way, we can get away with lynching CMAR today.
But only if you all promise to lynch the other two if CMAR comes up clean.

Is your suspicion of me purely because of process of elimination?
Is Haylen town only because of her claim?
Again, mafia re-directors exist. It is feasible in a game with town power-roles and a third party.

To Vollkan:
I think we're already pretty certain that I'm town. It would increase it from a 99% to a 100%.

I don't think it is quite that certain.

I think we have enough solid scum suspects that a lynch is worthwhile.

Considering that everybody has mentioned that River is quite possibly mafia - I agree.

[subgenius]

I still think we should lynch today though.

I will be voting Cry Me A River before the end of the day. He is my pick.

Why the change of heart?

What change of heart?
The first statement is 'I would like to lynch.'
The second statement is 'I would like to lynch River'

Oops, freudian reading slip. I remembered that you were one of the first to broach the possibility of NL'ing today and read the first post as "I still don't think we should lynch today." My mistake.

[vollkan]

If we mislynch, then maybe its 3v3 worst case scenario. Not every scum WC is 1/2 of the remaining players either. Anyway, if we do mislynch, then these potential one-shot redirecting, JK, whatever else is out there should act. There could easily be 2 scum. I think we have enough solid scum suspects that a lynch is worthwhile. Also a flip gives town PRs a better chance to help town. If there's another role tracker, hider, anything, it is one less option to investigate/jail/redirect/whatever and allows them to make more informed decisions.

Now that minis generally have shifted to 13-player games and now that we know that this game in particualr is relatively PR-heavy, it is far more likely that there are 3 mafia than 2. It is also highly likely that at least one of the claimed PRs at the moment is scum. I'm not willing to risk losing the game based on the off chance that they might use their powers correctly.

[havingfitz]

Hinduragi replaces CMAR. Welcome him. Thanks Hinduragi!

[Hinduragi]

Reading. I'll do my best to make it quick and post my opinion on the game so far before the weekend ends. I'm not making any guarantees but I should be ready by then.

[bgg1996]

Hinduragi, no, you have to claim this instant. Before reading.

[Hinduragi]

Why? I'm at L-3. Is this MyLo/LyLo? Have you guys mass claimed while CMAR wasn't here?

[Regfan]

Yes.
Just to catch you up to date, Bgg is the cops clear before he died. Haylen claimed a one shot redirected and we're all waiting on you to claim.

[Hinduragi]

Ok. I'm a one shot jailkeeper.