Mini 1122: Mafia.Exe Game Over

[Llamarble]

I am aware you unvoted Krazy to prevent a selfhammer.
I just can't imagine thinking somebody has fakeclaimed, unvoting them to prevent self-lynch, and then voting for someone else.

Anyway, I am pretty sure I want to lynch Nathaniel today, and if he flips scum I'll know your alignment tomorrow for sure regardless.

[Mute]

All scum have to do to arrange a quickhammer is
"if someone votes for a townie, wake up at 5:30 AM and set your online status to visible."
Daytalk isn't required. Scum had plenty of opportunity to set up quickhammering times overnight.

You sure would know that wouldn't ya? Lemme guess was that your plan all along?

Yes, my reads have gone back and forth on a number of players.
It has already been proven that there is a scum roleblocker in the game.
Saying the fact that I got roleblocked somehow makes me guiltier is deeply moronic.

=_=
Okay lemme see if I can break it down simpler for you to why you getting RB'd is a load of shit.
1) You are scum.
2) Tracker is a safe-claim for a RB'er to make as they're one in the same, in essence. Say you block someone, and the kill goes through; you can they use that to say "Well I tracked X and nothing happened." This is what happened with Krazy. CS is confirmed mason and town, so your "tracking" him is now a moot argument. All that remains is buttons, whom you say you tracked and nothing happened. Nathan you tracked and you were RB'd.
Process of elimination?
*Buttons and Llama are scum.
Even if Llama succeeded in getting Nathan/myself lynched, that's a scum-win right there.
Even if Llama succeeded in being today's lynch, that'd cast suspicion on me, heavy suspicion on nathan, and none on buttons... providing Llama doesn't flip RB. If Llama flips RB then we assume him saying "oh I targeted Nathan to track at night" is a ploy to get Nathan mislynched D6 pending Llama's D5 lynch.

I'm not "orchestrating blind mice along."
I am pointing out obvious optimal lylo play guidelines that town from my last game failed to follow.

"town your last game"
1) were you town your last game?
2) define last game, as I can say that about at least two games I've played that I can consider my "last game(s)"
3) Apples to Apples. Or in other words, saying the same thing but with an attemptedly more positive spin to it.
Why did town fail to follow it that game? What makes optimal play in one game the standard optimal play all across the board?

"BTW that's now two people (me and nath) that think your claim is too good to be true."
Is the only thing that makes me hesitant about Nathmute team.
Good distancing, but not unbelievable.

Lemme rephrase that last part, without the double negative. I hate seeing double negatives.
"Good distancing, but believable." Or with context "... the only thing that makes me hesitant about a nath-mute team; good distancing, but I can believe it." So, you believe it, yet doubt it. So, me pointing out two people having the same opinion aka agreeing is somehow distancing? How does that make sense? It doesn't! You can't take a step closer to someone and be getting away from them at the same time.
"Hey mute just said he was buddying up to nath!"
Wrong-- pointing out that nath and I called into question Llama's claim is not buddying. Pointing out that we both think his claim is shit is just that. We only agree on that point, that your claim of tracker is shit. I came to realize your claim made perfect sense for a RB'er to make.

WITH KRAZY FAKE-CLAIMING COP, and there not being a counter claim, SCUM didn't need to worry about there being a cop this game. SCUM CAN SAY WITH ABSOLUTE SAFETY "well I tracked this guy and nothing happened" without the risk of there being any cop investigations.

I suck at explaining shit so lemme try to rephrase that so it makes better sense, and see if my flow of logic is sound.

>D2: Krazy fakeclaims cop.
-Grey counters with a doc claim.
-NO COUNTER-COP-CLAIMS, = Scum are guaranteed knowledge of there not being a cop this game.
-RB'er, seeing this opportunity, can take his scum-role and turn it into a town PR by reverse logic.
>D4(or was it day 3? fuck if I remember): Llama [fake]claims tracker
-claims Buttons, CS, and Krazy were tracked. Buttons = nothing, CS = nothing, Krazy = scum-flipped by this point.
>D5: Claims was blocked.
-scum Rb'er is still alive, so entirely believable.
--claims Nathan was the intended target.
*btw, even if I was the intended track, this point'd still make sense. So really, anytime you see me mention nathan being tracked you can just as easily substitute him for me*
-Town, "convinced" of the claim of tracker, agrees to lynch the person the tracker could not track.
-scum wins the game.
THIS IS NOT ACCEPTABLE. SCUMTEAM = LLAMA AND BUTTONS.
FUCK WAITING. ALL MY HOPES. FINAL DESTINATION. NO ITEMS.
VOTE: LLAMARBLE


You think I've got tunnel vision? I do. Thing is, that's how it is for snipers.

[Llamarble]

Well I guess we deserve to lose this game if Mute is town.
He has spent the entire game assuming I'm scum and trying to come up with reasons for it being true.
Unfortunately I'm not sure if he's fake scumhunting or just a VI in confirmation bias mode,
so I'm not going to crossvote immediately in hopes he's town and takes his vote off.

None of that wall made any sense or demonstrated any likelihood of me being scum.
I was utterly steadfast in my conviction that Krazy was scum and voted him BEFORE the claim shenanigans,
which means I would have to have planned my tracker claim from the beginning with no idea how it would interact with town PRs.
Same goes for my changes in stance on Buttons & Conspiracy.
Mute, you have never so much as attempted to explain why you believe all the ridiculous things you'd have to believe if I were scum.
EXPLAINING HOW TO PLAY LYLO IS NOT SCUMMY.
I am not going to vote Nath right now, because simply waiting will tell me whether you're scum or not while voting Nath stakes all hopes on Nath/Mute scumteam. In Lovers multiball, we had team A voting person B and team C voting person D in lylo. This is dumb because town autoloses unless the team is A+C, B + D, A + D, or B + C. Turned out it was A + C, but nobody was listening when I said to take that into account in their reads.

[Mute]

"I was utterly steadfast in my conviction that Krazy was scum and voted him BEFORE the claim shenanigans,
which means I would have to have planned my tracker claim from the beginning with no idea how it would interact with town PRs."

Okay, you voted him, big whoop. That still doesn't diminish anything about your claim as tracker and how krazy claiming cop tested the waters for counter claims. It, in fact, doesn't discredit that at all. I know there's a logical fallacy term for that, to use one instance to disprove something unrelated but in the same instance. what that is exactly is beyond me.

"
He has spent the entire game assuming I'm scum and trying to come up with reasons for it being true.
Unfortunately I'm not sure if he's fake scumhunting or just a VI in confirmation bias mode,"
Correct me if I'm wrong but how exactly does

this

make sense?
Of course I'm assuming your scum, and finding reasons for it to be true. THIS is called scumhunting. You find a person you suspect to be scum, build a case on them, and push for their lynch if you feel strongly enough about your evidence for them. So, you're discrediting my suspicion on you by discrediting my scumhunting, and scumhunting in general. Yeah okay.

"Mute, you have never so much as attempted to explain why you believe all the ridiculous things you'd have to believe if I were scum."
I believe you are scum, and stated why. Do I have to explain now why i believe what I believe in, and you being scum is not acceptable? Oh boy, I think I'm feeling the vapors. Someone, catch me, I think I might faint.

"EXPLAINING HOW TO PLAY LYLO IS NOT SCUMMY."
No, you're right, it's not inherently. Saying "okay we shouldn't do X because of Y" isn't, it's playing it safe. You're going a step further and planning out "okay if X happens, then X'. If Y happens, then Y' or Z'. If Z happens, then fuckall I don't know." This is not playing it safe at all, nor just explaining "optimal" Lylo play.

"I am not going to vote Nath right now, because simply waiting will tell me whether you're scum or not while voting Nath stakes all hopes on Nath/Mute scumteam. In Lovers multiball, we had team A voting person B and team C voting person D in lylo. This is dumb because town autoloses unless the team is A+C, B + D, A + D, or B + C. Turned out it was A + C, but nobody was listening when I said to take that into account in their reads."
>using one game to justify another.
Maybe it's just me but I don't let things that happen in one game affect my other games. You still never told me your role in that game, and I'm not in the mood to go read through it.

[Llamarble]

"Okay, you voted him, big whoop. That still doesn't diminish anything about your claim as tracker and how krazy claiming cop tested the waters for counter claims. It, in fact, doesn't discredit that at all. I know there's a logical fallacy term for that, to use one instance to disprove something unrelated but in the same instance. what that is exactly is beyond me."
Makes absolutely no sense of any kind. What exactly are you saying happened?

The difference between scumhunting and what you've been doing is that scumhunting is reading the game and trying to figure out which players being scum best explains events. What you have been doing is picking a player in one of your very first posts, then arguing they are scum regardless of how the situation changes, reframing the case to try and justify your scumread on me every time new information arises. And you've done it very badly.

I pointed out several situations that are implausible if I am scum. Ignoring them and continuing on is just bad play.
I can assure you, if somebody says "it is implausible that I am scum because X,"
I will investigate X and either explain why X could have been faked or unvote.
(see me not thinking NathMute are the scumteam after Conspiracy's point for an example of town reevaluating a read in the face of evidence)

Using one game to justify another:
I saw town do something that is unwise in a game of mine and do not want the same thing to happen in this game.

Overall you're kind of like a creationist who says "sure there's bones but we don't have all the bones so you're scum whee!"

[Nathanael]

checking in.

will read and post later or tomorrow, when I have time.

[Llamarble]

Whee, I'm still alive! P(Mutescum) increases every moment I'm not dead.
Then again several players seem to simply not be around.
Oh well, we'll see what's going on soon enough.

[Mute]

Hey Llama, it's been at least 24 hours now.
If you were town then both the scum'd have voted and quick-lynched you. You just confirmed yourself scum.

[Llamarble]

I would indeed have expected scum to make a move to quicklynch by now if Mute was town,
And at this point we are definitely going to lose if Mute is town regardless as I see no chance he'll ever vote for scum.
VOTE: Mute
Tomorrow I shall marshall my reasons why I am town and he's scum, including an analysis of both possible buddy pairings.

@Buttons: I thought Tox could be scum with you with your "KRAZY WOULD HAVE TO BE A MORON TO FAKECLAIM HERE" being honest irritation with your buddies. I found a Nath + Buttons scumteam less likely to be dysfunctional enough to let Krazy hang himself D2. I also noticed that although MME was gone much of the time, him not getting replaced until much later in the game was making me think he had been active at night or somesuch. And Tox + you as a scumteam resolved the "having to buy Tox coming out and advocating a strategy guaranteeing him to lose" quandary. It avoided having to believe in Mute + Nath or Mute bussing Tox. Overall it was a case of "4AM retarded epiphany syndrome" similar to when I voted Xine.

[Mute]

Oh so you're voting for me because you don't think I'll vote for scum, right?
That is what you said just then.
"And at this point we are definitely going to lose if Mute is town regardless as I see no chance he'll ever vote for scum."
It's only after the fact that you vote that you say "I'll make my reasons tomorrow why he's scum."

Jesus christ. You, in Lylo, are voting me because you don't want me alive, whether I am town or not. You are willing to throw the game just to see me die.
Wow.


Llama, you're scum, that is why scum cannot quicklynch. If you were town, then both scum, who have had at least 24 hours to do so, would have voted you and won the game.
One more thing, then I'm taking a step back from this game because, lol, just lol.
"What you have been doing is picking a player in one of your very first posts, then arguing they are scum regardless of how the situation changes, reframing the case to try and justify your scumread on me every time new information arises. And you've done it very badly."
So in essence, you're discrediting my case by discrediting your case.
-I use information that arises through the game to add to my read and case of you.
-You use information that arises through the game to change your reads on every player.
The common thread is we both use whatever information that arises in the game to adjust our views.


Hell, has anyone even done any VCA's yet? I'd think that'd shed a good deal of light on this whole thing too.

[Llamarble]

I am voting you because I don't think you're town and because if you're town we're going to lose. That's how lylo crossvoting works.
I won't be "making reasons to think you're scum" tomorrow, I'll be marshalling them.
As in organizing things I've already noticed in order to demonstrate to Conspiracy and whoever else is town that you are mafia.

"Using information that arises through the game to add to my read and case of you"
IS EXACTLY WHAT SCUM DO. THEY BUILD CASES TO PUSH MISLYNCHES INSTEAD OF TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE GAME.
"Using information that arises through the game to change your reads on every player"
IS WHAT TOWN DO. WE ARE USING INFORMATION AVAILABLE TO US TO FIGURE OUT WHO IS SCUM, SO OUR READS ARE MUTABLE AS WE THINK ABOUT THE GAME.

Sure, town players push lynches on people they're suspicious of. But they also try to figure out what's going on in the game overall.
Mute has spent the entire game trying to lynch me while paying absolutely minimal attention to who could be a buddy / what is going on overall.

[TheButtonmen]

Mute / Llamarble:

You've made your feelings about each other clear, could you please can it until we hear from CS and more importantly Nath?

[Llamarble]

Huh, that was an alarming Buttons post; Only purposes I can see for it are:
A. Telling Nath he's here so they can QH
B. Mediating to make it look like he's not a mutebuddy.

I don't think I've ever seen a post asking disagreeing players to shut up before when the fate of the game rests on figuring out which of the two is scum.

[Mute]

Simple.
I caught you. Back when I said you were the RB and why I thought that and called you and him scum together. Us bickering just got him nervous as all hell. So, under the guise of "Okay guys you've had your fun with the ball now share," he's saying "DUDE STFU YOU'RE KILLING US!!!"
Though buttons, that raises the question: I called you scum, were you not aware? Well, what've you got to say to that other than "shut up and let CS/Nathan post?"

[Llamarble]

BTW Mute voting me while thinking Krazy is fakeclaiming makes NO townsense.

How doesn't it?

I'm voting my biggest scum candidate

, and taking note of others I'm curious about.

Nope. Been the town doctor since I got my role PM. No pick and choose. Krazy is definitely, definitely, definitely scum.

... Mute... uh... yeah, your logic blows chunks.

I'd go into this long diatribe about how that's not the case but my track record with life shows otherwise that my logic is rarely the same as others.

During this D2 post Mute's vote is on me, not Krazy, implying I was higher on his suspect list.
Even though he claimed to be _convinced_ Krazy was HORSETNT fakeclaiming, he supposedly believed me to be more likely scum than Krazy.
This makes NO EFFING SENSE if Mute is town.
A strong belief that a player is lying about their role should, in hypotownmute's mind, utterly outweigh the type of feeble garbage Mute had spewed to that point.

[TheButtonmen]

I don't think I've ever seen a post asking disagreeing players to shut up before when the fate of the game rests on figuring out which of the two is scum.

You guys are just repeating yourself over and over and filling up the thread.

A) CS is conf. town so I want to hear what he thinks.
B) I still aren't really comfortable with Nath and I don't want him to just be able to lurk through as even if he lynch 1 of Llamarble / Mute and hit scum today there is still tommorrow to think of.

[Llamarble]

Okay, I'm going to put down my simplest and strongest proof of me being town before I go to bed and

UNVOTE MUTE

rather than leave my vote unattended overnight. The purpose here is to demonstrate clearly the effects of my tracking results on my play:

D1, I was somewhat suspicious of Krazy's slot and listed it in my scumpile.
My first post of D2, I have received "Krazy targeted DRK" and am pretty much convinced he's scum. Hence:

Yay, the day returned just as I did!
DRKtown & BGGtown make me think Krazy is indeed scum. DRK was very suspicious of Krazy and then died. Krazy spent all day tunneling town and attacking people I have town reads on without really explaining. He did explain why bgg was scummy, but that was a pretty easy situation for scum to fake a case in. And he was in the middle of the bggwagon, as scum often are.

At the moment I think GreyIce is piss-poor town, but if bgg flips town (and Xine by relation) then GreyIce would be in my top 3 with Llamarble and Hiraki.

This, coupled with tunneling on bgg looks like a plan to lynch the easy townie and follow it up by attacking other players all of whom look town to me. I don't see how a bgg townflip exonerates Xine at all; she was hardly reluctant to lynch him. Greedling didn't do anything except wagon Xine though (a reason I found him suspicious yesterday), so Krazyscum doesn't necessarily imply Xinescum regardless.

VOTE: Krazy

And after Krazy claims, proving conclusively he's a liar rather than some town PR who targeted the night-death, I write

I don't see how any cop in their right mind would investigate PGOdoc. I find mafia risking a roleblock on a claimed possible PGO weird too. Unless RBing a PGO does not result in death (because of the RB), in which case it would make perfect sense.

I still find Grey infinitely more likely to be town than Krazy regardless.

I don't know what motivated the copclaim out of the gate D2 though. Maybe setting up bussing or something. Neruz's last is weird too. Who votes for somebody and then says "if he flips scum, go ahead and lynch me!" Anyway,

CONFIRM VOTE: KRAZY

I never show even slight doubt Krazy is scum for the duration of the day.
Having proved N1 action, on to N2:

My reads shortly before N2 (Woo my townalliance was all town):

TOWN ALLIANCE OF DOOM:
Llama
Grey
Neruz
Hiraki

Town:
Nathanael
Pappums

Probably town:
Xine (some of her stuff just feels forthright to me; I guess I'll go into some detail at some point)
MME

Scumteam:
TBM
Mute
Krazy

I have a very very good feeling about this.

But then after N2, when I have been informed TBM visited noone:

Yay, we were right!
Though I suppose it may have been impossible to be wrong between TBM/Grey.
I've not really been seeing Xinescum, but I'll keep reading her and trying.

I read TBM again and I can see the misguided town angle for him.

Currently I'm pondering MME & Mute & have to look more at Xine.
And I need to check on my Hirakitown read.

I soon disagree with Xine on her scumread of TBM & list TBM as "Likely Town" in my next scumlist.
This complete readflip on TBM was the result of role information I received.

And finally N3.
Before (I also had put conspiracy scummiest on some previous lists, but here's a clear demonstration right before night):

It's a logical analysis of actions vs. what looks like town thinking situation, so I've had problems making up my mind.
My best guess for a non Xine team is Conspiracy / MME or Conspiracy / Hiraki.

After:

I'D LIKE TO SOLVE THE PUZZLE

VOTE: XTOXM

SCUMBUDDY: NATHANAEL

Though Hiraki could replace one of them.

Poof!
Scumread on Conspiracy has vanished in favor of the other players who are now twice as likely due to my "did not visit" result.

Clearly, my reads reflect my results.
If you want to believe I'm scum, you have to believe I've been preparing this fakeclaim the entire game and utterly trashed my buddy D2.
Scum just don't do things like preparing a tracker claim the whole game through because there are all sorts of ways the setup can wreck that plan.
And scum don't just obliterate their buddies for no reason while minimizing towncred gained by telling them to fakeclaim.

Mute has continually failed to address the fact that these two aspects of my behavior fundamentally do not make sense from scum.

[Mute]

Did you miss where I said krazy's fakeclaiming cop gave scum a damn near 100% certainty of there being no town investigative power roles via the lack of a counter claim?

You say I don't pay attention.

[Llamarble]

Town investigative power roles would not counterclaim unless it was necessary to keep Grey from getting lynched, and it wasn't.
Also I came out blasting Krazy before there was any possibility of counterclaimage.
So scum had ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA what manner of town investigative power roles existed at that point.

[Nathanael]

The Llama/Mute back and forth is nice and all, but I have something better.

there is one thing I know for sure now: Mute and Llama are not scum together. There is just no way Mute would have voted his buddy like that in Lylo (unless it was a planned double bus, but in that case Llama would have kept his vote on Mute).
this tells me that

Button has to be scum FOR SURE

.

VOTE: TheButtonman

I am not going to move my vote, since Buttons is confirmed scum to me.

If buttons flips RB, Llama is confirmed scum; so if we move the decision between Llama/Mute to tomorrow we have a chance that the problem will solve itself. Also, a day more will gain more information anyway.
There is therefore absolutely no reason to decide between Llama and Mute today.

[ConSpiracy]

Sorry guys, I have been away for a little bit, it is Queen´s day today and yesterday it was my last day on school (which took a night, a day and another night to party.
I am nog going to say anything at the moment, I like to read the discussion between you.
I want TBM to read the post above and tell me what he thinks.

@mod: I will be V/LA from monday 2 may till thursday 6 may.

[Llamarble]

Huh, I suppose at least one of Nath/Buttons has to be scum and therefore this Nath vote on Buttons can't result in a QH.
If Buttons and Nath are both on at the same time and make /Notquickhammer posts it would be useful (Mute would then be truly confirmed scum to me).
The logic behind Nath's Buttonvote is accurate from his perspective if he's town, but still leaves the overall lynch decision up to Conspiracy.
Assuming no quickhammers in the near future, we'll be able to entirely rule out Me + Mute & Nath + Buttons.

[Exe]

Hello.

Vote Count #1

Day 5

Llamarble

(1): Mute,

TheButtonmen

(1): Nathanael,

Nathanael

(0):

Mute

(0):

ConSpiracy

(0):

No Lynch

(0):

Not Voting

: TheButtonmen, ConSpiracy, Llamarble,

With

5

alive it takes

3

to lynch.
Deadline for Day 5 is

12:00 PM EST 5/12/11.

[TheButtonmen]

I got called out unexpectedly tonight / Post by afternoon EST of sunday.

[Llamarble]

IMPORTANT NOTE: DO NOT AT ANY TIME DECLARE V/LA WITH A SPECFIC END DATE IN THREAD OR MENTION YOU'RE GOING OUT FOR THE NIGHT AND WILL BE BACK IN X HOURS.

I will assume your scum trying to arrange a time when both members of the scum team will be online.

I got called out unexpectedly tonight / Post by afternoon EST of sunday.

Ha.

Conspiracy will decide who gets lynched today;
whomever he votes we all should vote since if he votes town we're losing no matter what.

I would like for Mute and I and Nath/Buttons to go on at the same time and /notquickhammer to unambiguously disprove those pairs.
Then if we lynch Mute and he flips goon, I'm confirmed town and Buttons is confirmed town and we automatically win.
If Mute flips RB, I'll know who the scum is tomorrow (or be dead)