- With 10players alive, it takes6to lynch
- Deadline for the end of day five is Wednesday 11th May @ 8am CST
- sathorisis V/LA
- Furcolowhas been prodded
Cold War Mafia - GAME OVER!!
-
-
Sotty7 That Damn Good
- That Damn Good
- That Damn Good
- Posts: 6744
- Joined: October 7, 2005
- Location: Minnesota
13th vote count of day 5
PeregrineV - 4 -smargaret, Beasts of the Sea, The Fonz, Lowell
bvoigt - 2 -Enigma, Sathoris
Enigma - 3 -Furcolow, ThAdmiral, bvoigt
Beasts of the sea - 1 -PeregrineV
Not voting - 0 -No one
-
-
PeregrineV Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21275
- Joined: February 23, 2011
- Location: Zendikar
bvoigt wrote:There are 6 communist claims and 4 capitalist claims, I believe. 4 communists and 6 capitalists would make it even. So if you do want to outguess the mod, we have 3 scum out of the communist claims and 1 out of the capitalists.
Enigma wrote:Re setup:Nearly(Note not every) all 12p games have 3 scum teams. 2*3 scum teams is balanced for a 24p setup. I bid you all good luck in outguessing the mod. And as a result now, the optimal play for one Soviet scum left is to not Night Kill just to add to your confusion.
That's true, but when you consider crosskills, 2 scumteams of 4 each make more sense. I was in a 16-player game that had 2 scumteams of 3. However, I don't really see the point of arguing about it. Peregrine, why are you so concerned about the number of scum remaining?
Because of this:
Yeah, it is in the mafia team's best interest to have us keep chasing ghosts and lynching town. Knowing what we are truly up against benefits us.
If you knew for a fact there were 4 mafia left and 6 town, your entire scumhunting strategy is different than if you are only looking for 2 that are on the same team.
For example, this is Scott's post:
Scott Brosius wrote:bvoigt wrote:Feysal wrote:Furcolow [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2931914#p2931914]#1825[/url] wrote:It's looking like 8 vs 4 vs 2.
Why so pessimistic? 8-4-2 could be possible, but I think 10-3-1 is at least equally possible.
I think a 3-man scumteam would have a tough time in a 24-player game. With a Day 1 lynch, crosskill, and good vig shot, they could be eliminated by Day 2 in a worst-case scenario.
Yeah I would guess more likely 8-4-2, small chance of 3 man teams with some random third parties running around but given no flips and seemingly no SK 8-4-2 makes the most sense.
Now, at this point, we have 2 dead soviet scum, and are speculating on the total mafia team size. Would you just out and out tell the size of your team, "hey guys, only one left!"? Or would you strongly hint at the correct number? Or would you grudgingly admit the correct number, but speculate highly that the incorrect number is correct?
I'll elbaorate more in another post where I give smaraget my player reads.I will haveLimited Accesson weekends.-
-
PeregrineV Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21275
- Joined: February 23, 2011
- Location: Zendikar
smargaret wrote:... earlier on this page I was town, now I'm scum.
I'll give those reads after you do the same.
I still have you in a town spot. But, I could be wrong. And your still scummy (if it's this word which is confusing, then I can use "making posts and doing things that make me think you are a mafiateand/orthat make me want to lynch you for them."
Since I think there are two:
ThAd-us, TheFonz-othsov, bvoigt-sov, PeregrineV-sov, smargaret-othus- town
Sathoris-othsov, Enigma-us- I think town but can't be 100% sure
Furcolow-sov, Lowell-sov- Maybe of the last US scum that lied about nationality. If not, then one of two above.
Beasts of the Sea-othus- US scum
If there are really four left-then 4 of the bottom five. But, logic tells me 2.I will haveLimited Accesson weekends.-
-
The Fonz Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9014
- Joined: April 2, 2007
- Location: UK
-
-
PeregrineV Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21275
- Joined: February 23, 2011
- Location: Zendikar
@TheFonz- I happen to believe she is town. To me, the setup helps confirm this (once again, to me). And I think the setup is one tool the town has. Apparently most people think the lynch is the only tool, and so post one or two lines with lynch so-and-so.
Like here, and here and here and here
And
here, here,and here.
My point is that it's kind of common and accepted in the beginning of a game. But with 10 players left, 5 days of voting, 4 flipped scum, understanding the flavor somewhat, and trying to guess how the setup affects the endgame, we have a ton more tools to use.
But, it seems like the more I use them instead of one-liners, the more votes I get.I will haveLimited Accesson weekends.-
-
PeregrineV Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21275
- Joined: February 23, 2011
- Location: Zendikar
-
-
PeregrineV Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21275
- Joined: February 23, 2011
- Location: Zendikar
EBQOP:
@Everyone else who hasn't yet:
Please give your read on the remaining players below. Also, your opinions on 2 remaining US scum, 3 US +1 Soviet scum, or other scum totals is also appreciated.
1 Beasts of the Sea
4 Enigma
6 PeregrineV
8 ThAdmiral
10 Furcolow
11 Lowell
13 smargaret
18 bvoigt
22 The Fonz
24 SathroisI will haveLimited Accesson weekends.-
-
bvoigt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2256
- Joined: September 18, 2010
@Peregrine: I'm still thinking 3 US + 1 Soviet remaining.
For scum in the capitalist claims, I'd say either smarg or Enigma. ThAd and BotS are pretty town.
From the communist claims, my top candidates are Sathoris and Lowell. That leaves Fonz, Furc, and you. Unfortunately, I had town reads on all 3. Hmm...is it a bad idea to assume the game is 12 capitalists and 12 communists?-
-
PeregrineV Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21275
- Joined: February 23, 2011
- Location: Zendikar
-
-
bvoigt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2256
- Joined: September 18, 2010
PeregrineV wrote:@bvoigt- based on nationality claims Enigma and ThAd are both claiming US. Wouldn't that mean they are both US scum, at least? and the off-country you have smargaret?
I still haven't done the nationality analysis, but 12-12 makes sense, for flavor balance.
No, I don't think that makes them both scum.-
-
Furcolow To Be Frank
- To Be Frank
- To Be Frank
- Posts: 5402
- Joined: March 21, 2010
- Location: Kentucky
-
-
Beasts of the Sea Townie
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 40
- Joined: November 16, 2010
The Fonz wrote:ii) Precisely one of the living American Mafia claimed American, the other two claimed other nationalities.
I wouldn't be surprised if the American scum claimed soviets since the heat is obviously on the Americans now and less on the Soviets.
PeregrineV wrote:So, Mr Beasts of the Sea. You believe there to be 3 American scum and 1 Soviet scum left.
I think you are the remaining Soviet scum and I think Enigma is USA scum, with The Fonz being USA by association. To be honest, my scum read on The Fonz has gone down today since he is now doing some actual scumhunting instead of standing by his policy lynches only. I'll revisit this when Enigma flips.
4 Enigma - USA Scum
6 PeregrineV - Soviet Scum
8 ThAdmiral - Leaning Town
10 Furcolow - Town
11 Lowell - Town
13 smargaret - Leaning Town
18 bvoigt - Leaning Town
22 The Fonz - USA Scum, pending Enigma's flip
24 Sathrois - USA Scum, POE
The Fonz wrote:Peregrine, is there any particular reason you're so set on there being no Soviets left?
Yes, because he's the remaining Soviet. It couldn't be anymore obvious.
The question is, do we want to kill off the remaining Soviet team (PV) and eliminate a night kill, or kill a USA scum (Enigma) and hope for cross kills? I'm leaning towards eliminating a night kill for sure, because hoping for cross kills is not as sure of a bet as killing off a scum team for certain.-
-
PeregrineV Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21275
- Joined: February 23, 2011
- Location: Zendikar
Beasts of the Sea wrote:The Fonz wrote:ii) Precisely one of the living American Mafia claimed American, the other two claimed other nationalities.
I wouldn't be surprised if the American scum claimed soviets since the heat is obviously on the Americans now and less on the Soviets.
PeregrineV wrote:So, Mr Beasts of the Sea. You believe there to be 3 American scum and 1 Soviet scum left.
I think you are the remaining Soviet scum and I think Enigma is USA scum, with The Fonz being USA by association. To be honest, my scum read on The Fonz has gone down today since he is now doing some actual scumhunting instead of standing by his policy lynches only. I'll revisit this when Enigma flips.
4 Enigma - USA Scum
6 PeregrineV - Soviet Scum
8 ThAdmiral - Leaning Town
10 Furcolow - Town
11 Lowell - Town
13 smargaret - Leaning Town
18 bvoigt - Leaning Town
22 The Fonz - USA Scum, pending Enigma's flip
24 Sathrois - USA Scum, POE
The Fonz wrote:Peregrine, is there any particular reason you're so set on there being no Soviets left?
Yes, because he's the remaining Soviet. It couldn't be anymore obvious.
The question is, do we want to kill off the remaining Soviet team (PV) and eliminate a night kill, or kill a USA scum (Enigma) and hope for cross kills? I'm leaning towards eliminating a night kill for sure, because hoping for cross kills is not as sure of a bet as killing off a scum team for certain.
The question is more like, do we lynch Beasts today, and if he is town, I'll shut up and be the lynch tomorrow. Wouldn't that be groovy?
No more me and my craaaaaaazzzzzzzzyyyyyyyyy ideas.I will haveLimited Accesson weekends.-
-
ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5920
- Joined: September 20, 2006
- Location: The Hills
-
-
The Fonz Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9014
- Joined: April 2, 2007
- Location: UK
PeregrineV wrote:@bvoigt- based on nationality claims Enigma and ThAd are both claiming US. Wouldn't that mean they are both US scum, at least? and the off-country you have smargaret?
SCUM. LIE. ABOUT. THEIR. ROLES. ALL. THE. FUCKING. TIME. If there were two US mafia remaining with actual American rolenames then the absolute last thing in the world I'd expect them to do is both claim American.
There is fairly obviously an American Mafioso hidden in the claimed Soviets. You can say what you want about outguessing the mod, but it is simply not fair to have two more soviet town than American town for the Soviet scum to hide in.
Also, you know who hasn't really produced any original scumhunting content today, and has completely not been called on it? Sathoris. I know he's had v/la issues, but he's also made filler posts like these:
Sathoris wrote:Che flipping town cuban roleblocker raised a few eyebrows.
Sathoris wrote:Furcolow wrote:Enigma just claimed Lyndon Johnson
vote: Enigma
LBJ isn't out of place here, unless there's something I'm missing?
Sathoris wrote:The Fonz wrote:One, you're sheeping Enigma here. Two, let me rephrase that without the spin you put on it: "Fonz is creating content, giving opinions and reads, and trying to convince other people of them."
I'll respond to BoTS separately.
That's your side of the coin.
Sathoris wrote:PeregrineV wrote:@smargaret- I'm sorry you feel that way. I will try to be more like you.
You promised analyis aswell. But your latest post was just the same, plus you added a (useless) question.
Sathoris wrote:
Don't assume anything based on nationalities and names. Scott turned out to be J Edgar Hoover. Someone you would classify as 'the protector of peace and common sense'.
The only real argument he's made all day is 'Peregrine is scummy for thinking it might be 8-2.' And that's a bad one. He's said a lot of things that kind of look semi-relevant, but don't actually help figure anything out or shed new light on the game.
You know what? Fuck it. I'm not going to continue to support a wagon pushed by smargaret and Sathoris, along with Beasts, who despite saying Enigma is scum and I am his partner with unspecified 'ties' is quite happy to push the counterwagon.
Unvote, vote: Enigma-
-
The Fonz Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9014
- Joined: April 2, 2007
- Location: UK
-
-
ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5920
- Joined: September 20, 2006
- Location: The Hills
-
-
ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5920
- Joined: September 20, 2006
- Location: The Hills
-
-
The Fonz Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 9014
- Joined: April 2, 2007
- Location: UK
-
-
PeregrineV Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21275
- Joined: February 23, 2011
- Location: Zendikar
15 bunnylover Che Guevara - Cuban Roleblocker.
3 RedCoyote John Glenn, US Odd-Night Vigilante.
20 LlamaFluff John F Kennedy, US Townie
23 hohum Harold Wilson, British Townie
16 Amrun Joseph McCarthy - US Blacklister
2 Debonair Danny DiPietro Edward R Murrow - US Townie
9 VP Baltar Ho Chi Minh - Vietnamese Soviet Mafia Goon
21 nachomma8 Josep Broz Tito - Yugoslavian Townie
17 gonnano Janos Kadar - Soviet Mafia Goon
12 XScorpion Leonid Brezhnev, Soviet Townie
5 Feysal Erich Honecker - Soviet Neighbour
14 Scott Brosius J Edgar Hoover - US Mafia Jailkeeper
7 LynchMePls Nikita Kruschev - Sovier Watcher
19 Stephoscope Andrei Gromyko - Soviet Mafia Rolecop
The Fonz wrote:
Full player/nationality claim list:
Americans:
ThAdmiral
Enigma
Other Free World:
Beasts of the Sea - French
Smargaret - West German
Soviets:
Bvoigt
Lowell
Furcolow
PeregrineV
Other Communist:
Myself - Polish
Sathoris - Albanian
11 US and 13 Soviet. One of the Soviets is lying.I will haveLimited Accesson weekends.-
-
PeregrineV Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21275
- Joined: February 23, 2011
- Location: Zendikar
-
-
PeregrineV Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21275
- Joined: February 23, 2011
- Location: Zendikar
-
-
PeregrineV Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21275
- Joined: February 23, 2011
- Location: Zendikar
Revamp:
Since I think there are two:
ThAd-us, TheFonz-othsov, bvoigt-sov, PeregrineV-sov, smargaret-othus- town, Furcolow-sov
Sathoris-othsov, Enigma-us- I think town but can't be 100% sure
Lowell-sov- Last US scum that lied about nationality.
Beasts of the Sea-othus- US scum
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
@smargaret- Can we have your remaining scum thoguthts and player list please now?
@Lowell- Can you provide your thoughts on the final breakdown of scum remaining and list where you believe each player to be?
@Sathoris- Can you provide your thoughts on the final breakdown of scum remaining and list where you believe each player to be?
@Enigma- Can you provide your thoughts on the final breakdown of scum remaining and list where you believe each player to be?I will haveLimited Accesson weekends.-
-
ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5920
- Joined: September 20, 2006
- Location: The Hills
The Fonz wrote:ThAd, do you agree with this statement?
I wrote:There is fairly obviously an American Mafioso hidden in the claimed Soviets. You can say what you want about outguessing the mod, but it is simply not fair to have two more soviet town than American town for the Soviet scum to hide in.
This is probably right. Unless there are 4 soviet and 3 us.Don't ask me to provide self meta-
-
bvoigt Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2256
- Joined: September 18, 2010
Copyright © MafiaScum. All rights reserved.