Chuck Season 1 - GAME OVER

[PeregrineV]

Dana voting:
ReaperCharlie-Ragnarokio-EmpKing-PeregrineV-mikeburnfire-EP
mikeburnfire-Ragnarokio-Magua

ReaperCharlie voting:
Ant-Thor-Dana-Thor-MoS-Dana-MoS-Magua-mikeburnfire-Dana-MoS

CDB voting:
EP-PeregrineV
No votes

ooba voting:
CDB-mikeburnfire-Ant-Thor-Ant-EP-ReaperCharlie-EP
Dana-Ant-Dana-MoS

Magua voting:
Ant-EP
ooba-Rag-Ant-Dana-MoS-Dana

More later.

[Thor665]

Why is ant probably town, thor?

A serial killer and a scumteam in a 13 player game seems too fast. I think LyLo would be day 2 under those conditions.

I already outlined how it could work. Congratulations on not contributing anything.

@Pere - what a wonderful graph...with no conclusions. Congratulations on not contributing anything.

@CDB - thank you for the promise of eventually contributing something.

@MoI - oh dear gawd show up and fulfill yourself and react to my call!

In other news, I hate you all.

[PeregrineV]

@Thor- You're welcome

I always put out the raw data for town use. In this case, it's just the order of voting for those players.
(My) conclusions will be after I get all of the players patterns up, if any can be made.
Otherwise, it will be for use alongside other information.

Still looking for MoS to come clean about his "role", since he, too lived through the night.

[mikeburnfire]

MoS, Ant, and Thor are high on my scum radar right now.

I don't trust MoS at all. Not only does he take the cop claim at face value, but after Ooba linked Ant and MoS together as a possible scumteam, Ooba ends up dead instead of the two claimed power roles. I want to hear his role and how he is supposedly confirmed right now. Looking over his posts, I see that he spent the majority of Day 1 attacking Dana, which would normally be a point in his favor. However, MoS is a crafty bastard, and would be smart enough to buss his scumbuddy like that. His most recent post highlighting his own suspicions of dana right before the lynch don't help either.

Ant defended dana from MoS Here. Worth noting. If your cop claim is true, then I'm willing to bet that you visited Peregrene last night. Am I correct?

I hadn't seriously considered Thor until the dana flip. He voted Dana early jokingly and stays on him for a long time without reason. Then, when the wagons started to heat up, he unvoted and went after Rag and Penguin. Day 2 he went after Rag, then randomly dana for no reason, THEN says that he thinks dana is strongly town (even though he is voting him). He keeps saying that his vote on dana is "Gut", but then he says Magua's gut vote is so suspicious that he votes Magua. However, he then vote dana again, who didn't have many votes. Dana seemed to get really defensive when RC linked him to Thor, which might explain why he was killed. And Dana gets really upset when I don't answer his Thor question. Overall, there's a lot to answer for here.

[Ragnarokio]

I already outlined how it could work. Congratulations on not contributing anything.

You missed my first question.

13 alive to start. 1 scum flip thus far, 8 alive now. I'm guessing an SK (assassinated?) and scum (killed). Certainly due to the lack of a kill Night 1 one of the scum factions (killed) was on top of the doctor situation. This bears out with their chosen kill of ooba, as they're recognizing fear of a Doc. Odds are two scum left, plus SK third party, which means we're functionally in a pseudo mylo *right now*.

Unless you mean that the scumteam wasn't allowed to nightkill N1, then the problem with this is that it's 4 scum, 9 town, with two kills per night.

Day 2 starts like this, in the worst possible scenario.
3Maf
1SK
6Town

With a town lynch, and two town nightkills, that puts the scum to town ratio to 4:3, which is a town loss.

[Thor665]

I hadn't seriously considered Thor until the dana flip. He voted Dana early jokingly and stays on him for a long time without reason. Then, when the wagons started to heat up, he unvoted and went after Rag and Penguin. Day 2 he went after Rag, then randomly dana for no reason, THEN says that he thinks dana is strongly town (even though he is voting him). He keeps saying that his vote on dana is "Gut", but then he says Magua's gut vote is so suspicious that he votes Magua. However, he then vote dana again, who didn't have many votes. Dana seemed to get really defensive when RC linked him to Thor, which might explain why he was killed. And Dana gets really upset when I don't answer his Thor question. Overall, there's a lot to answer for here.

I think you're confusing "I don't understand his play" with "his play is scummy" You certainly drastically misunderstood the Magua vote, and also are showing an inability to read how the wagons happened and what my vote on dana, when it happened at the end of yesterday, means.

Ask some questions and I'll clarify - but the short answer is "open your eyes, I'm so freakin' obv. town it's silly...also my beard is waaay too sexy to be legal"

Frankly most of your suspicions are, right at the moment, premature and silly. We need more activity and more information before we start galloping whole hog at claimed PRs.

Question

Finally - please quote where I called dana strong town while I was voting him - I don't recall that part. Quote or die in a fire as a horrible misrepresenting fool whom I will kill.

@Rag - I did correct myself to a 2 scum team as being less scary. You have continued to say nothing though, so congratulations on that. Who is your top suspect currently?

[Thor665]

Ant defended dana from MoS Here. Worth noting. If your cop claim is true, then I'm willing to bet that you visited Peregrene last night. Am I correct?

If Pere *and* MBF are town than I want it on record that our loss was based off of town not reading anything and drawing conclusions with no meaning.
If even one of them is town I may still claim this.

[PeregrineV]

MoS, Ant, and Thor are high on my scum radar right now.

I don't trust MoS at all. Not only does he take the cop claim at face value, but after Ooba linked Ant and MoS together as a possible scumteam, Ooba ends up dead instead of the two claimed power roles. I want to hear his role and how he is supposedly confirmed right now. Looking over his posts, I see that he spent the majority of Day 1 attacking Dana, which would normally be a point in his favor. However, MoS is a crafty bastard, and would be smart enough to buss his scumbuddy like that. His most recent post highlighting his own suspicions of dana right before the lynch don't help either.

Ant defended dana from MoS Here. Worth noting. If your cop claim is true, then I'm willing to bet that you visited Peregrene last night. Am I correct?

I hadn't seriously considered Thor until the dana flip. He voted Dana early jokingly and stays on him for a long time without reason. Then, when the wagons started to heat up, he unvoted and went after Rag and Penguin. Day 2 he went after Rag, then randomly dana for no reason, THEN says that he thinks dana is strongly town (even though he is voting him). He keeps saying that his vote on dana is "Gut", but then he says Magua's gut vote is so suspicious that he votes Magua. However, he then vote dana again, who didn't have many votes. Dana seemed to get really defensive when RC linked him to Thor, which might explain why he was killed. And Dana gets really upset when I don't answer his Thor question. Overall, there's a lot to answer for here.

Waiting for a MoS response to earlier "claim".
Saw exactly two MoS posts where he "attacks" Dana. Can you link to more?
Ant claimed cop Chuck, and no one counterclaimed name or role (MoS claimed something).
Ant checked EmpKing (town).

[Ragnarokio]

Ant was pretty indirect about revealing his results, I didn't get it the first few times through either.

[Ragnarokio]

@Rag - I did correct myself to a 2 scum team as being less scary. You have continued to say nothing though, so congratulations on that. Who is your top suspect currently?

You.

A mafia team of 2 is pretty unbalanced for the mafia. Especially in a game with another killing role.

You still haven't answered my question.

[Thor665]

@Rag - if you fail to understand what someone says on the first readthrough - read twice. He was really quite obvious. Also, MBF missed an entire discussion people had about Ant's target, so...

Your 'question' was "Why is Ant highly likely town" which isn't what I said at all, also I stated my reasons already - here they are again;
Ant is highly unlikely to be scum unless scum is the assissinated team, and kill is the SK. I'm sticking to trusting him for now.

Are you advocating that one of the killers is not scum? Because if you think 2 scum + SK is bad for scum, and 3 scum + SK is too powerful for scum, than you must be advancing that one of the kills is Vig. Which flavor do you believe is a pro-town kill?

[Ragnarokio]

I'm not trying to advocate anything, I don't know what the setup is. A vig would probably be more likely than a serial killer, though killing both RC and Magua is a little bad, like you said. I guess a vig being redirected to ooba would be possible, though mafia redirector and roleblocker seems unlikely as well. When things don't add up in many directions, it's best to not try and force it to fit, is how I generally think.

I don't understand the logical jump between who made the kills and ant's alignment.

[Ant_to_the_max]

Pssst...lunch break right now, but I only have my phone on me.

Thor beat me to it, but ITT: People can't read

Pere case is mainly built around him quickly jumping off the dana wagon last minute to ensure that the lynch would be EP. Look back on D1 on how he kept his vote on dana but didn't really believe in her lynch. D2 I brought it up and we had a small argument. He was clearly denying that he was connected to dana because of it.

Then look at his change of vote after I claim. Nothing but a vote. No comment about the events going on. I also picked up that vibe from Empking as well. I was assuming the vig (yes I am assuming it is a vig at this point would have been a bit smarter than he was but I believe it should be fairly obvious who it is. Unless there is something else going on, but I will figure that out when people actually answer my question >:( )

[mikeburnfire]

Thor, you aren't confirmed town, and I will continue to suspect you up until you are. Deal with it.

Finally - please quote where I called dana strong town while I was voting him
Peregrene,
MoS expressed suspicion or desire to lynch Dana here, here, here, here, and beginning of day 2 [url=http://ww ... 60712]here.

Ant claimed cop Chuck, and no one counterclaimed name or role (MoS claimed something).

Ant's claim seemed desperate, to out the real cop. Wouldn't surprise me if the real cop is still hiding. And just because Chuck is flavor good guy doesn't mean hes in-game good guy. Also, yes, possibly a safe-claim.

Will reread Pere later.

[mikeburnfire]

I believe it should be fairly obvious who it is.

If you don't stop these vague posts, I will lynch you.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Sorry, just got back from my V/LA as noted before the lynch.

I like ponies.

Ant should be able to confirm my role now. I used Ant to confirm myself because I felt he was the most likely to live through the night. The scum wouldn't know whether it's more important to kill me or Ant, and they'd also be worried about hitting doc protection as well. Thus, if they wanted a guaranteed kill it makes sense they'd go for someone else. I didn't take into account the possibility of two kills going off last night, but luckily that logic extends to a second scum kill, if that's what it is.

I trust Ant more than anyone else simply because I don't see us having an unchallenged cop/Chuck claim. I don't see us having neither role in the game, and thus a claimed role is someone I trust more than the rest of you, who are statistically more likely to be scum. If there is another cop who stayed quiet, now is the time to come forward. Waiting any longer will just hurt us badly, because we need to be able to use the information we have and not throw it all out the window because of uncertainty. I would suggest that every player claim now whether or not they are a cop, because I see no reason for them to stay quiet at this point, now that they've had time to get a second result.

I am not a cop.

The ooba kill makes sense as mafia or sk, while I'd guess the Magua kill is either vig or sk. If we have a mafia and vig kill, I'd guess the vig killed Magua since he seemed pretty scummy. Additionally, I could see an SK trying to hit mafia to take out the competition. I don't see why mafia would kill Magua, though, since there was strong suspicion that he was scum with dana. Thus I would conclude that ooba was killed by mafia, and Magua was killed by a vig or sk.

Gut says that if Dana was scum and Magua was town, then Thor should be dana's scumbuddy since it wasn't Magua. I will have to recheck all of that, though. Now that we know there is either an SK or a Vig, I'll look at stuff with that in mind as well.

[mikeburnfire]

Oh yes, that makes sense. Confirm your role to the person most likely to be targetted by mafia. That way, even if he survives, the two of you can be linked even more than you were yesterday.

vote: MoS

[Mastermind of Sin]

What? I just explained why Ant was likely *not* to be targeted by mafia...he was the most likely to receive doc protection. How does what you said make any sense at all?

As for the supposed "connection" between Ant and I, see my debunking of that yesterday. That case was a completely one-sided fabrication. I chose Ant to confirm because he was our claimed power role, and because my role is most useful when I have a protown person confirm it. Having the person I chose to confirm me be scum would have made my role relatively worthless, and thus I had to choose the person that was most likely to be protown, and I'll trust claim evidence over my gut reads any day, especially after the way Hydra Mafia ended up.

[Ragnarokio]

confirming your role to someone who isn't confirmed town or a claimed cop might have been safer.

[Mastermind of Sin]

How would that have made sense? If I confirm my role to someone we have absolutely no reason to trust, then their word confirming my role means absolutely nothing.

[Mastermind of Sin]

EBWOP: I purposefully created the ambiguous dichotomy of power role claims in order to prevent the scum from killing Ant or myself. Thus, I felt relatively safe in my choice. I had no reason to think any of the rest of you would survive the night, so it would have been a crapshoot. That wouldn't have been smart or helpful at all.

[Ragnarokio]

You had no reason to think that any of the rest of us would survive the night? When there are 2-3 high priority scum targets alive?

[Ragnarokio]

Vote: MoS

[Mastermind of Sin]

You had no reason to think that any of the rest of us would survive the night? When there are 2-3 high priority scum targets alive?

You had reason to believe that Ant or I would die? When we are both high priority protection targets and there was no dead doctor?

FoS: Ragnarokio

[Ragnarokio]

Claimed power roles and confirmed townies are usually pretty high on scum hitlists.