NY135: Sexy Sedilla Semi-Open - Town Wins

[kanyeknowsbest]

I'm going to have to keep disagreeing with you on this Idher, I am convinced that the majority of scum were in the group of people who were neither on the wagon nor tried to stop it. Also, I am really not seeing anything that makes saporo a better lynch than chair or zepher.

UT is flipped town. Sapo is asking for an alternative lynch on Empking know that a)it wasn't going to happen, which leads to b)free "towncred" for arguing against a townflip when UT flips without necessarily needing to push an alternative wagon, which is win all around for scum considering UT still got lynched.

You do remember that SpyreX and I were also trying to deflect that wagon off of UT, right? You also remember that you came in and hammered him without saying anything while we were in the process of trying to move the wagon, right? I guess while we're talking about this, do you have anything to say on that subject?

[Magister Ludi]

Mastin, why do you think the scum were all on the empking wagon, as opposed to all off, or a mixture?

[mastin2]

Put briefly:

TOWN:
02. MrZepher x Swag136 (force-replaced and blacklisted D1)
07. Îdher (Amrun + Ether hydra) x | x
15. Oversoul x

NULL
01. saporovirus x | x The Mask (replaced out D1) (town-lean)
16. kunkstar7 x (?)

SUSPECT:
05. Magister Ludi Knight of Cydonia (replaced out D3) (

Formerly

Mutually exclusive with Kayne

.)
06. kanyeknowsbest x (

Formerly

Mutually exclusive with Ludi/KoC;

Currently

Mutually exclusive with Yosarian2

.)
09. SpyreX (

Mutually exclusive with Chair

.)
13. Chair (implosion + Misder) (

Mutually exclusive with SpyreX

.)
17. Yosarian2 x Parabollocks (replaced out D1) (Town Lean;

Mutually exclusive with Kayne

.)

Three names are scum. Spy/Chair is one. Kayne/KoC-Ludi/Yos2 is two. (Potentially [but doubtfully] three.) The third is likely one of my null reads. (It depends on whether {Kayne, KoC/Ludi, Yos2} contains one or two scum.)

[kanyeknowsbest]

Also, since we keep quoting that votecount and its hella buggin me,

@Mod: Is there any mistake in this vote count?

Empking (8): SpyreX, Knight of Cydonia, T-Bone, kanyeknowsbest, Yosarian2, Oversoul, Hiraki, saporovirus

As far as I can tell, Hiraki's vote was on Oversoul, and the actual hammer came from Empking. I noticed this during the night, but vote stealer is not on the list of potential roles, it was a lynch anyways, and Hiraki ended up dead so I didn't feel it important to bring up.

[kanyeknowsbest]

Why do you think Ludi and I are mutually exclusive with Yos? Also can you explain your Zepher town read?

[mastin2]

Mastin, why do you think the scum were all on the empking wagon, as opposed to all off, or a mixture?

I don't.
I think two were on, one was off.

The scum knew he was getting lynched, they wanted to get the bookie shot. Additionally, lynching Empking is (theoretically) free town-cred.
It's the same thing with SK/Opposite Scumfaction Lynches when you think about it. Lynching the SK/OSF looks pro-town, right? It's something nobody's supposed to be suspicious of; you helped lynch scum! Thing is, I've found SK/OSF Lynches to contain a significantly higher percentage of scum than normal.

Same thing applies to here--confirmed scum; NOT lynching Empking would be considered scummy, right? Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight?
(No. For the multiple reasons outlined in-thread. But they didn't think that at the time.)

Why WOULDN'T there be more than one scum on the wagon? There should be two.
While theoretically possible to be three, like I said, I don't think they'd risk all three.

Two, on the other hand, is perfectly acceptable.

[Magister Ludi]

Mastin, it looks to me like you are trying to chain a grip of lynches and scum reads around an event that was apparently going to be happening no matter what: that being the empking scum lynch.

[mastin2]

Why do you think Ludi and I are mutually exclusive with Yos? Also can you explain your Zepher town read?

You read that wrong. KoC was mutually exclusive with you. As in, I read that one of you was town, the other scum. I'm less convinced of this now, and need to look into it some more.

Currently, I believe that you and Yosarian2 are mutually exclusive alignments, and that one of you is scum and the other is town.

Also can you explain your Zepher town read?

Swag was obv-town. Simple as that. Zepher's play seemed to be town as well. I didn't see scum Motivation in his moves. I didn't see scum Tone in his posts. I didn't see any condemning interactions from him. And speaking in more traditional scumhunting terms, I don't see any real evidence against him. The same applies to his predecessor, only moreso. The guy's obv-town.

[mastin2]

Mastin, it looks to me like you are trying to chain a grip of lynches and scum reads around an event that was apparently going to be happening no matter what: that being the empking scum lynch.

^For the record.

Lines like these are beginning to tip the scales in Ludi's direction.

As in, making Ludi scum.

[Magister Ludi]

That post was left unfinished. Anyways, continuing,

Empking was going to be lynched, and I'm not entirely sure where you are getting the thoery that multiple scum had to be on the wagon, when just as easily you could have said multiple scum are probably OFF the wagon and going from there.

To me it reads as arbitarly assigning a scum tell to something that is at best null, and then deciding something

has

to be done because of that tell.

~~~

I mean, if you were scum, you sure as hell would know the thought process you're running through right now, and would try as hard as possible to stay off the wagon and then push the fact scum were probably on the wagon, no?

[mastin2]

No, Ludi. Just no.

It doesn't work that way.

If I were scum, I'd be saying exactly what happened in the game, since that's what my biased viewpoint says would look the most likely.

In other words, if I were scum, there'd be two scum on the wagon and I'd be the scum off.

If you meant in general, well, I'm seeing pretty much equal numbers of people push "scum on" as "scum off". If anything, there's a slight margin in favor of "scum off", which pretty much guarantees the correct answer is "scum on". (What? Makes sense to ME! )

[SpyreX]

Zephyr coming in and correcting you mastin, more than anything, makes me think town.

[Îdher]

Guys. Why aren't you voting Sapo yet? (Also, I have no idea where Mastin got his mutually exclusive sets. Kanye and Yosarian are both town. Wasn't Sapo in your top 3 at the end of yesterday? What the fuck has she done since then?)

This back and forth about where the scum were is still idiotic. They

needed

the Emplynch to happen yesterday--not later--and the town shouldn't have fallen for it.

-Ether

[mastin2]

Zephyr coming in and correcting you mastin, more than anything, makes me think town.

Among many other reasons, this is one of the things, too.

[Magister Ludi]

[mastin2]

...Oh. I mis-remembered. I was thinking I had Mask as a previous town-read.

BLASTED MEMORY!

(It always lies...)

[SpyreX]

No. We're not lynching Chair or Zephyr. That is not how this is going to go down.

Your criteria is completely backwards. There were 15 players alive yesterday. That gave the town 7 lynches total to find the scum. By lynching Empking yesterday instead of putting it off (or giving a potential vig a night to deal with him, which would have worked), we brought that number down to 5. We know now that the bookie can't guess every night; keeping the scum guessing would weaken them. Lynching Empking cost us two lynches instead of one, and freed up the bookie target for other purposes.

We already knew Empking was scum at that point. We didn't need confirmation of his alignment to update our reads on other players. Nothing was accomplished by lynching him sooner, except wasting a lynch--and giving us a wagon full of scum to look at. No one except Hiraki was actually trying to keep Empking alive out of some perceived townishness. They were trying to save a lynch that we should absolutely have been able to save.

-Ether

I'm not even sure where to begin with this.

But lets make it clear:

A worst-case 2-1 is still better than a worst case 2-0. You find scum, you lynch scum. Period.

Aside from the fact that, while pretty obvious, it wasn't even guaranteed there was a bookie EVEN WITH that it was still absolutely the right call. If I could do that again today I would. Scum can not win a phyrric game with even a bookie.

Again, because this whole argument is bunk:

Scum can not win a phyrric game with even a bookie.

[SpyreX]

And that is assuming super awesome bookie. The ONLY way Empking wasn't the right lynch is...

1-shot bookie. That is it.

[Îdher]

08. Hiraki,

Vanilla Townie

, killed Night 2

[SpyreX]

And that would be a vig shot on someone who.... defended Empking.

Huh, fancy that.

[mastin2]

That re-orders the Null list. Sapo moves below Kunk (dead-on null, and I suspect will remain dead-on null the entire game. [Which probably means Kunk's town. ]) Sapo is Null, heavy (HEAVY) scum-lean.

Scratch that. Sapo's scum. Kunk's town.
{Kayne, Yos2, KoC/Ludi} contains 1 scum. (80% sure of that, now. 19% being 2 scum. A gratuitous 1% for all-town, which quite frankly I find pretty much impossible.)

{SpyreX, Chair} contains 1 scum.

{SpyreX, Knight of Cydonia, kanyeknowsbest, Yosarian2, saporovirus}
Sapo's one of the scum. Since all three of KoC, Kayne, and Yos2 are on the wagon, that means that SpyreX is more likely town, which makes Chair looking far more likely scum.

Yeah, this is looking nice. Real nice.

Let's take a stab at the dark.

I'll be checking into this further, but for now?

Calling It

: The scumteam is Saporovirus, Chair, and Magister Ludi.

Unvote, Vote: Chair

.

[mastin2]

([/leaving]. Will be back in a couple hours or so.)

[SpyreX]

Actually what point is that trying to prove?

Yes, IF there's a vig who is wrong every night AND there's a bookie who picks right every day we lose? Yea.

How that equates to lynching Empking was a bad idea I'll never know.

YESSS mastin YESS

[Îdher]

You cannot seriously be this thick.

Take three guesses who would have eaten that bullet if Empking hadn't already met a stupider fate. Obviously the scum didn't know whether there was a vig or not--but why on Earth would they want to take the risk, and waste a shot or two in the process?

-Ether

[Îdher]

Mastin why the fuck aren't you voting Sapo.