Mafia Invictus ~ Game Over!

[DrippingGoofball]

I think I might have fallen in love with Illuminati.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'll bet that there are at least two and probably at least 3 scum in this group. Rest of the scum were probably early on that wagon (scum points for Naut and Zach).

Other than the fact that you are on the Spyrex wagon you have any logic to support why you think this?

Because a pants on head quicklynch of Town player Spyrex says to me "More scum on than not". Clear as day.

[DrippingGoofball]

There could be all the scum, or no scum on the lulzwagon. Aynthing in between.

I put an average number of scum in my algorithm.

[MagnaofIllusion]

There could be all the scum, or no scum on the lulzwagon. Aynthing in between.

I put an average number of scum in my algorithm.

I know you do .. and I appreciate the solid scientific method to your madness.

But I will eat the hat that Spyrex invariably would have had he lived if more scum are off that wagon than on.

[DrippingGoofball]

That's assuming perfect scum knowledge and scum being online to apply this perfect knowledge. It was too fast, some scums were sleeping in bed, while others were chuckling and not posting... and others were already safe on the early wagon.

I could buy the "no scum on caboose" theory, and what have you there? Myself (borderline position), Fate, and silavor-town.

[Zachrulez]

Anyway, now that Fate-Gamma talky time is over.

ZACH

(that was to get your attention so you won't miss it from me+Fate everywhere)
Let's go into some stuff. First of all- you said that your big scumteam people are:

Gut/VitaminR/Gamma

First- based on your experience do you think the most likely explanation for Vitamin's agreeing with me here-

I like the above from Gamma. Particularly the Ban, Benmage, Duplicity, and Nautilius pieces are similar to my own thinking.

is that we're both scum together or do you think this game is unique and it normally doesn't happen but we're scum anyway? (or some other 3rd option I'm not thinking of)

See, you're trying to beat off my logic with linking logic. I find scummy actions from you, I find scummy actions from him. Links need not apply. (They are the road to ruin.) His presence after looking at his iso is low enough to be scum.

Second- I'll understand if you don't believe me but I didn't push for sila to die faster so I could make a big case on you today, I pushed on him so we could get on with the game- MoI and sila were both decent lynches and it was pretty clear that nobody besides the two of them were going to die that day, and pretty much everyone that wasn't voting MoI had a chance to hammer him in the 20 something hours that he was at L-1. Once dance unvoted I didn't think MoI would get lynched at all that day and was tired of nobody on the MoI wagon being willing to push for his lynch or even talk about other lynches except Fate.
Do you think that any big realizations or something would have occurred that can't happen now if the game had gone on for another 12 hours or so? The only thing I can think of is that Baby Spice might have looked a little townier and not have been the invictus'd if dance had agreed with Baby Spice to the point that he chose to ignore the invictus wagon, and some people are still saying today that she might be up for lynch if she wasn't dead.

Point stands that you failed to inquire me about my suspicions and used my lack of elaboration against me. You can't seriously push that when you could have done something about it the day before, it points to a mentality of just wanting to lynch someone as opposed to actually being interested in my motivations, that's the point I am making.

As it is, my vote only evened the wagons yeah? Anything can happen as deadline approaches. (Which is why I tend to hold out with my vote as long as possible, but my V/LA made that a little harder this time around.)

Third- This is mostly because having 3 whole points looks cooler than just two but did you ever have a read on Quilford?

It was in flux. I don't remember anything that gave me an overly strong read either way. Off memory he voted me without explanation which left me scratching my head, but couldn't get anything solid because I don't remember any explanation or thought process to it, the lack of any would lean me to a read of scum.

Anything else you need from me?

I still want Gut to hang. (Notice the correlation to a realistic chance of lynch to him suddenly caring.) I'd take lynches of Gamma, Vitamin R, or Naut at this point as well. Won't join a Magna wagon unless it's the only possible lynch at deadline.

[Gammagooey]

Zach you made a comment saying that Vitamin was scum with an arrow pointing to his post that agreed with mine. That KIND of indicated to me that you thought he was scummy because of that post and the link to me, not because he's individually scummy.

As for the second part Fate says I'm a hypocrite so I can clearly do whatever I want. Yeah you didn't post a bunch of reasonings for people and you were V/LA. But I still think that your vote-hop to Magna and then off and then onto Gut without actually going over why Magna is scummy is a lot more likely to come from scum than town. To me it reads like you hopping on Magna for doing something that you think is legitimately scummy and will get him lynched and then hopping off when you don't have anything else to actually support the vote, instead of getting on and off because of a change in your read on him.

Anything else you need from me?

Since Illuminati never got back to me I'll use that question again and ask for a few odd reads or reasonings for things.

[DrippingGoofball]

I still want Gut to hang. (Notice the correlation to a realistic chance of lynch to him suddenly caring.)

BINGO

[Gammagooey]

DGB if Gut is town and gets lynched what do you think will happen tomorrow?

[Gammagooey]

also aren't you still voting for Zach.

[DrippingGoofball]

Is the correct answer: MoI is going to be wagon'ed within a inch of his life, again?

[DrippingGoofball]

also aren't you still voting for Zach.

Hey if I don't try, I'll never happen.

[MagnaofIllusion]

DGB if Gut is town and gets lynched what do you think will happen tomorrow?

And if MoI is Town ( I am, but you are playing the What if Game) and gets lynch what do you think will happen tomorrow?

[Gammagooey]

Is the correct answer: MoI is going to be wagon'ed within a inch of his life, again?

Almost. The correct answer is MoI gets lynched tomorrow regardless of his alignment. And assuming that Gut is town and town is invictus'd tonight tomorrow is probably LYLO since a scum win-condition check occurs before any invictus kill goes out and I'm expecting 4 scum in the game. Although I would be fairly surprised if all three of Illum/Gut/MoI were town but I'd rather have a lynch that's not guaranteed to be on one dude tomorrow.

----

If MoI-town gets lynched then I'm HOPING people will finally go over shit before voting since all of the "obvscum" would be dead and flipped town but I may be being too optimistic.

[Gammagooey]

Actually you know what there's a more sane way to do this.

Invictus wagon now uses 2 votes. If the first target is dead then you get moved to the second one in the final votecount. It'll make it so we don't have to deal with all this bullshit tomorrow if one of Gut/MoI gets lynched, flips town, and the other would normally be tomorrow's lynch since nobody wants to invictus the people they're voting right now.

And if Tar or other really want they can use his group thing and just choose one of the top 2-3 wagons, with punishment of graveyard sadfaces if they choose wrong and it isn't the top wagon.

Primary invictus: MoI
Secondary invictus: Illuminati

Invictus votecount:
Illuminati(4): Nautilius, VitaminR, Fate, Gut
MoI(2): Ban, Gamma
Duplicity(1): Tarhalindur
Nautilius(2): Illuminati, Benmage
Gammagooey(2): Zach

Invictus votecount if MoI is lynched
Illuminati(5): Nautilius, VitaminR, Fate, Gut, Gamma
Duplicity(1): Tarhalindur
Nautilius(2): Illuminati, Benmage
Gammagooey(1): Zach

[Gammagooey]

Oh one more thing.

@ Illuminati, Duplicity, and Benmage- how do you feel about zachrulez?

[Ban]

Uh, I hate days like yesterday. All set to come home and the big man in charge walks up and says he needs me to stay for another fifteen hours. Apparently replying with "I don't actually work for you, and no consultant works that long" is just met with a "then I'll shoot you and dump your body in the lake." And here's a hint, don't laugh because he'll shoot you and chain you to a desk where you wake up doing calculus problems. Which is weird because the company specialized in using specialized analytical logarithms to maximize efficiency in distribution routes... No idea what they needed the calculus for. Plus, they don't even use desks... where the hell did that thing come from? Do they just keep one in storage for this exact situation?

Anyway, enough of my boring life stories.

Conversation on quill.

This is admittedly a possible explanation for the KK kill. It is NOT, however, the only possible explanation.

I like your thinking but I'm sad to see the idea that was in my head not included on your list. With my own semi-known feelings on gamma aside, shouldn't the fact that Gamma being scum hinges on certain scum power roles being present and that the possibility that he was killed for this reason exists imply that he should be shelved at least until a scum power role is caught?

I mean it's cool to say "The possibility that gamma is scum exists if certain other things exist", but it still seems like lynching him without some suggesting you're right is illogical. I realize you're up for lynching anyone of your four which is cool, I only say this because you mentioned you would be voting him if not for MOI and that seems like wasted focus to me.

Anyway, not all that important... just thought I would weigh in on past conversations that are probably over and don't need my input.

Your point about there being a potential scum doctor, bulletproof or alternate power preventing an Invicitus occuring makes no sense when it comes to your read on Quilford. A failed invictus vote and no invictus death would leads towards it being abundantly obvious that something prevented the invicidus kill going through which again throws attention and suspicion onto Quilford. There legitimately is no scum motivation for Quilford to shoot at KK at all as it would lead to a likely 1 for 1 trade which is something mafia would avoid at all costs.

See, you're looking at it in retrospect. Night one, scum couldn't have known that there was only going to be one kill, they also couldn't have known that invictus's would be so easy to tell apart from other kills. I literally went into night expecting 5 or 6 deaths. A missing invictus would be easy to cover up, and with so many possibilities like KK changed it, or a town doc stopped it, or even if a bodyguard died it could be argued that one protected Quill. furthermore, the age old "i'm bulletproof" wouldn't suggest anything. In fact, if gamma was bulletproof then the scum could have planned on that to make him look town. I.e. Scum kill KK, knowing quill won't die, dawn arrives and they argue that scum wouldn't have killed KK therefore quill is town. Instant scum='confo' town status. Definitely worth wasting a BP shot in my opinion. And this isn't even factoring in my own ideas on the matter.

I know lynching gamma is currently illogical, but in the event he does flip scum I could certainly see you as his partner here.

I confound you because I'm hard to read. I never really bleed pro-townness. Frankly, I care more about a potential Gut mislynch than a silavor one. CES is my little brother. I'm one of the players here who knows him well and that his playstyle is generally scummy, so I feel like I need to speak up. And I always feel kinda bad when he's mislynched.

Did you know he was Gut this whole time, or did you just find out?

Btw, you asked why I didn't refer to meta when I voted Magna. I don't really remember why, but I remember I had a reason for it? That's kinda a bad answer, but it's true. I was a little nervous about placing that vote generally. I was worried it would look scummy to hop on another wagon after SpyreX (I generally am not a bandwagonny player), but it was where my gut was telling me to go. It may have been because I was afraid to get into a detailed argument with Magna about his meta. My vote was really based on a gut impression rather than anything that's really easy to pinpoint and I think I was worried about getting drawn into a lengthy discussion about it.

No... I can't let you win me over with your charming and beguiling ways. You'll end up hurting me just like last time... For the record, I can understand this. But I'm sure you'll understand when I tell you this isn't exactly something that relieves my suspicions on you.

Oh fuck me... Hindu bodgy guarded quil... its so simple... I keep neglecting bodyguard stops invictus kills.

Fyi a scum doc wouldn't.

A scum doc wouldn't what? What do you know that I don't?

[Zachrulez]

Zach you made a comment saying that Vitamin was scum with an arrow pointing to his post that agreed with mine. That KIND of indicated to me that you thought he was scummy because of that post and the link to me, not because he's individually scummy.

As for the second part Fate says I'm a hypocrite so I can clearly do whatever I want. Yeah you didn't post a bunch of reasonings for people and you were V/LA. But I still think that your vote-hop to Magna and then off and then onto Gut without actually going over why Magna is scummy is a lot more likely to come from scum than town. To me it reads like you hopping on Magna for doing something that you think is legitimately scummy and will get him lynched and then hopping off when you don't have anything else to actually support the vote, instead of getting on and off because of a change in your read on him.

Anything else you need from me?

Since Illuminati never got back to me I'll use that question again and ask for a few odd reads or reasonings for things.

Fair enough.

So you think my actions indicate a link of myself and Magna? (Mostly for the purpose of understanding the basis of your read.)

[Zachrulez]

DGB's absolute Town for this last exercise. I specifically gave her every wagon and she properly excluded the Fate RVS and the doubled Silavor / MoI wagons.

Interesting that Zach and Fate both show up as the top outputs and both are Town reads for me. I'm guessing that my 'Hiding in Town reads' scum is one of those two ...

People give me too much credit as scum, but to help you out a little bit I know for a fact it's not me, and I highly doubt Fate is scum. I've had a town on town feel from the fighting both of you have been doing, but if one of you HAD to be scum, I'd put my money on you more than I would for Fate. But that's IF... don't think you guys are scum.

[Zachrulez]

Oh and invictus votes.

Invictus: Naut and Vitamin R

Gamma moves down the suspicion list a bit. Still feel uneasy about him, but I can understand some of his issues with me at least.

[Ban]

Note to self: Benmage/Duplicity interactions read VERY STRONGLY scumbuddy at this point.

Note to self, look into Ben more. Would you think this still holds true even if Gamma ends up town?

Bullshit. If Quilford is bulletproof and planning on trueclaiming that ability, he can just claim that when asked to claim and answer questions about why he's alive. Likewise, a stopped Invictus on a non-bulletproof Quilford could have been explained by a player protecting him (which, as a matter of fact, is what appears to have happened), with the only risk being when targets are claimed at massclaim.

In fact, if I were scum who knew that KK had stated an invictus on a scum who I knew would be protected, I'd happily kill KK so I could falseclear my buddy with the WIFOM logic "scum would never risk killing a player who they knew was targeting a townie, so buddy X is effectively confirmed town".

Wait, why does that logic sound suspiciously familiar? It's almost like a few players have been using that exact train of logic in the thread for a while...

Do you have an opening for an adoring fan? DGB keeps me pretty busy but I'm fairly certain I could spare a few moments for you if needed.

Tar a chain reaction kill meant invictus went through.... so there was no quil doc or quil bpv.

How do you know? Scum can't plan on a town Body Guard 'interfering'. Body Guard happens fist, so there is no reason there couldn't have also been some scum plan in the works.

Also I really hate being late to this party... *shakes head* I am not liking this recurring theme from Ben 'knowing' stuff.

Scumputer looks good per my initial reads aside from Dup appearing so low. still I sorta excluded him from the Fate Pentaverate so I suppose that kinda makes sense.

Blah blah blah, yell yell yell, old man stuff... que the 'nu-uh!' 'uh-ha' routine...

I don't actually trust Tar's spread sheet. Most of it seems spot on, but it put Gamma in Fate's group instead of in Dup's where he belongs. It's a small hiccup but ultimately leads me to doubt it's authenticity. Then again, I'm an idiot so what do I know right.

[Ban]

Invictus wagon now uses 2 votes. If the first target is dead then you get moved to the second one in the final votecount. It'll make it so we don't have to deal with all this bullshit tomorrow if one of Gut/MoI gets lynched, flips town, and the other would normally be tomorrow's lynch since nobody wants to invictus the people they're voting right now.

so this is only if you're invictusing gut/Moi... alright...

Invictus: Moi, Sub-Invictus: Dup

I agree with your "dead Moi means less distractions tomorrow" even if I don't actually think he's likely scum. Dup goes both ways between my scum group combos so he's the obvious backup.

Unvote:, Vote: Duplicity

I'd still hammer MOI over gut if it came to it but given how the game inevitably plays out I'm sure someone else will do it long before I need to bastardize my own beliefs.

[Gammagooey]

So you think my actions indicate a link of myself and Magna? (Mostly for the purpose of understanding the basis of your read.)

It's more that I think you didn't have a real suspicion of Magna when you hopped on his wagon even though you knew it could definitely lead to his lynch, it's a little more likely to be you-scum+magna-town than both of you being scum but I can see you voting him-scum like that too if you thought he would get quicknoosed for it and have the ends justify the means.

You should still give me those odd reads and reasonings by the way.

[Gammagooey]

Invictus votecount:
Illuminati(4): Nautilius, VitaminR, Fate, Gut
MoI(2): Ban, Gamma
Duplicity(1): Tarhalindur
Nautilius(3): Illuminati, Benmage, Zachrulez

Invictus votecount if MoI is lynched
Illuminati(5): Nautilius, VitaminR, Fate, Gut, Gamma
Duplicity(2): Tarhalindur, Ban
Nautilius(3): Illuminati, Benmage, Zach
Gammagooey(1): Zach

[Zachrulez]

So you think my actions indicate a link of myself and Magna? (Mostly for the purpose of understanding the basis of your read.)

It's more that I think you didn't have a real suspicion of Magna when you hopped on his wagon even though you knew it could definitely lead to his lynch, it's a little more likely to be you-scum+magna-town than both of you being scum but I can see you voting him-scum like that too if you thought he would get quicknoosed for it and have the ends justify the means.

You should still give me those odd reads and reasonings by the way.

I think I've given all the ones that matter.