Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

[TheButtonmen]

D4VC5:

LlamaFluff (4): mith, Amrun, ChrisB, Llamamarble

Amrun (1): DH
Chris (1): LlamaFluff

Not Voting (2): Equinox,

With 7 alive it's 4 to lynch.

That's a lynch!

[TheButtonmen]

LlamaFluff the Vanilla Townie

has been lynched!

Night 4 starts now and ends July 16th 19:00 EST.

[TheButtonmen]

DemonHybrid the Vanilla Townie

has been killed!

Welcome to Day 5!

[TheButtonmen]

All other Team Mafia games are finished so all eyes on us!

[Equinox]

Well, at least that means Llamarble isn't a scumbag trying to get a LyLo mislynch on me because DemonHybrid was his last possible partner, but it does mean that I am going to yell at him for his hammer because I WASN'T DONE. Sigh.

I'm over 400 miles away right now, so you guys will hear from me when I get home late Sunday or early Monday.

[Llamarble]

Well my impression of what was going on has pretty much exploded.
Full reread will happen soon.
I can explain some of the things that lead to my Fluffhammer if people want me to but I'd rather just get on with life and lynch scum today.
Basically the times he and DH attacked each other were not when the other was vulnerable and Fluff was posting a lot of things that reminded me of how I think as scum and Fluff + Amrun was nagging at me as well even though Amrun was voting Fluff.
Sorry Equi for interrupting you; I kind of derpepiphanied and thought I was ending the game.

In case anybody didn't notice we are now in lylo.
A single town vote for town now loses for us if scum are organized, so we have to be careful about voting and consider voting strategy.
Basically if all 3 town have to choose correctly our chances of survival are about 1/8
(though in practice somewhat better because can beat random at picking scum).
I hate the idea of random lynching, but 2/5 is much better than 1/8.
One answer to this is to pick somebody as obvtown and sheep them; if everyone is convinced I am town I can do it.
Obviously I'd listen to council and take everyone's opinions into consideration.
Randomly choosing a player to place the first vote and then proceeding normally is also decent strategy since it may force scum to vote first.

[Equinox]

So I just remembered what I'm looking at; 2 of {Amrun, Chris B, mith} are scum FMPOV, which means I shall be at least half-right no matter what. Ihihi.

It's party tiiiiiiime.

[mith]

I won't be voting for Llamarble, and I can't see myself voting for Chris B either unless he does something super-scummy today. So it's down to Amrun and Equinox for me. I also think Amrun-Equinox is the most likely pairing by PoE (and in that case, it doesn't matter who I vote for), but I keep changing my mind on which of the two is more likely to be scum if they aren't buddies.

Looking at them individually, I lean toward Amrun... her entrance in this game was strong and looked pro-town, but lately, not so much (though that may be skewed by the personal stuff she's dealing with, so I'm trying to keep that in mind). The reaction to DH's Sotty hammer still bugs me, for example. Equinox, on the other hand, has more consistently felt like she's doing genuine scumhunting. One point in her favor for me is how she has behaved toward the wagons. She's been a big factor in derailing two L-1 wagons - on DH (confirmed town) and Llamarble (very likely town) - yet jumped on the DGB wagon and made no attempt to turn that one elsewhere. That seems backwards from what I would expect scum to do.

If I look at pairings, it goes the other way. They could be scum together, and that's a wash. The could both be scum with Chris, if we're wrong about the daytalk thing - in fact, Fluff was arguing that Equinox-Chris made a lot of sense (though I don't see why it's a better fit than Amrun-Chris). But Amrun-Marble is completely out of the question, while Equinox-Marble is not; I wouldn't say it's

high

on the likelihood scale - as I said yesterday, Equinox's calm/patient reaction to that wagon doesn't feel like a scumbuddy reaction - but it's the only Marble pairing that makes any sense. The posts to start today are making me a little more paranoid about that pairing... Marble's hammer was odd and 1454 sorta brushes that aside, while also possibly providing a hint at the nightkill motive (granted, DH makes sense as a kill for any other pairing); then the suggestion from Marble that we sheep him? Ugh.

Anyway, need to review some things - ISOs of everyone, Fluff's comments on Chris yesterday in case I'm just stuck in a blind spot there, the end-of-day wagons...

As far as voting strategy goes, I hate random

voting

, so the idea of deciding any game on the flip of a coin would be anathema to me even if I didn't think we could do better by using our heads (and I do). The default of "townies think about the individual players and the possible pairings and vote when you are sufficiently confident in someone being scum" works well enough - it forces scum to act unnaturally indecisive, so they have to either go ahead and vote first (reducing the game) or stall in hopes that a townie votes (possibly slipping up in the process). If not for the Equinox-Marble possibility, letting Marble decide who votes first wouldn't be a bad option. (Or, for that matter, just letting Marble decide the lynch, as he suggests.) But with that out there, I'm extremely reluctant to put this in his hands.

[Amrun]

What happened to I can't be scum with anyone but DH, mith?

[mith]

Fluff wasn't scum. I must have been wrong about one of my assumptions yesterday (Equinox not scum with Marble because of her reaction to the wagon; Amrun not scum because of her entrance; Chris B not scum because of the daytalk slip). I definitely feel most strongly about the daytalk thing, but I am going to reconsider everything.

[Chris B]

I rarely like listing suspects, but I think it would be worth everyone doing so. 1-4,

[Chris B]

Sorry, misclicked. 1-4 from scum to town.

1 - Equinox. I've been suspicious from the start, and I didn't like her 'I'm totally going to vote soon' shit yesterday.

2 - Llamarble - I didn't like that hammer yesterday, nor the 'let's not dwell on the past' stuff.

3 - Amrun - Very close to second place here. I continue to not be able to read Amrun, and that concerns me.

4 - Mith - If he's town, I've been played badly.

[Amrun]

If he's TOWN?

So you think Equinox/Llamarble is the scumteam?

I was about to post that I want to lynch one of Equinox/mith today, but Chris B's latest post is terrible. I can't get over the daytalk, so I won't lynch him and will have to settle for lynching his partner if he is actually scum.

I favor an Equi lynch over a mith lynch. Mith's thoughts are pretty similar to my own at this stage.

[Equinox]

I'm almost home, folks! I'll address mith's longer post when I'm not staring at a tiny screen in noontime sunlight.

Chris B, would you rather I vote LlamaFluff like Llamarble did yesterday and then let the mod lock the thread before I could present thoughts on Amrun and mith? What would be the scum motivation behind waiting to hammer?

Scum are still chomping at the bit to have their final mislynch be me. Amrun and Chris B are practically drooling there, and mith could be too but I need to read that wall better when I get home.

Come on, scum, don't be chicken. You know you want to end the game quickly before anyone finds out it's youuuuu.

[Chris B]

If he's TOWN?

Typo. I meant 'If he's scum'. Obviously.

So you think Equinox/Llamarble is the scumteam?

Not necessarily. I don't know who the team are. Hell, I'm having difficulty figuring out one scum member. I don't know who two are.

I was about to post that I want to lynch one of Equinox/mith today, but Chris B's latest post is terrible. I can't get over the daytalk, so I won't lynch him and will have to settle for lynching his partner if he is actually scum.

I favor an Equi lynch over a mith lynch. Mith's thoughts are pretty similar to my own at this stage.

Interesting. I've got Equi, but I haven't got Mith. So your 1-4 are, in order, Equinox, Mith, Me and Llamarble?

[Chris B]

I'm almost home, folks! I'll address mith's longer post when I'm not staring at a tiny screen in noontime sunlight.

Chris B, would you rather I vote LlamaFluff like Llamarble did yesterday and then let the mod lock the thread before I could present thoughts on Amrun and mith? What would be the scum motivation behind waiting to hammer?

I'd rather you get on with it and give your thoughts, rather than keep promising thoughts and action. Considering I pointed out I didn't like the way Llamarble handled that, it's fairly clear that's not what I think.

Scum are still chomping at the bit to have their final mislynch be me. Amrun and Chris B are practically drooling there, and mith could be too but I need to read that wall better when I get home.

Come on, scum, don't be chicken. You know you want to end the game quickly before anyone finds out it's youuuuu.

Since you're mentioning three people, obviously town are chomping at the bit as well.

[Equinox]

Okay, I was bored and read mith's post anyway. I like his post over Amrun's and Chris B's, but I need to think it over more to make sure I'm not just biased due to his read of me.

Amrun, what are your present thoughts about Llamarble?

EBWOPreview: It was 2 AM when I made that post, Chris B, and I'd spent all night reading. No way I was going to not post, and there was no way I was going to trawl through mith's posts that late at night.

I do admit to procrastinating the next morning, though, so make of that what you will.

[Equinox]

Scum are still chomping at the bit to have their final mislynch be me. Amrun and Chris B are practically drooling there, and mith could be too but I need to read that wall better when I get home.

Come on, scum, don't be chicken. You know you want to end the game quickly before anyone finds out it's youuuuu.

Since you're mentioning three people, obviously town are chomping at the bit as well.

Nope. Only two people are. My job is to figure out who the third one is, as they'll sound genuine about me as opposed to, "We're almost there, can someone just vote Equinox already so that we can win this thing rawr?"

[Equinox]

I bring greetings from Faraday.

mith, how would you describe the DemonHybrid-mith interaction?

[Amrun]

Llamarble is town. Very town.

[Equinox]

Llamarble is town. Very town.

Yes. I gathered that much. Why?

[Equinox]

I bring more greetings from Faraday... this time with some drinks fresh from the grapevine. Chris B, you were considered just as town as -- if not more than -- DemonHybrid. If I'm scum, why are you still alive?

[Amrun]

The way his wagon built cut down his possible partners, we lynched the only one truly remaining, and some of his posts from yesterday all point to town.

What do YOU think of Llamarble, Equinox?

[Equinox]

Before I answer your question, Amrun...

we lynched the only one truly remaining

Why am I not a possible partner to Llamarble?

[Amrun]

Well, you're not TOTALLY ruled out, but how okay you were with his wagon suggests you are not scum with him, and if you two arte partners, I want to lynch you anyway.