NY136: The Death of ReaperCharlie (GAME OVER, Town win!)

[DemonHybrid]

Two posts since the day start and he votes Shanba after I post a wall

Alright, mastin. But if this is the zonk, remind me never to play lets make a deal with you ever again. I never liked being in costume anyway

Unvote, Vote: killerjester

[DemonHybrid]

Sleep now, kiddies

[killerjester]

..I thought I was clear on this.

Of course I'd vote Shanba. It was between you and him in my mind for this day. I'm more confident about you being town now that Bowser's flipped scum, as I've said before I think there was only one scum in the neighbors. That leaves Shanba. Does KJ-logic make sense?

[mastin2]

Not really, no. Not from a town mind-set, anyway.

[killerjester]

Right then, which part is confusing?

[ToastyToast]

Gonna have to disagree on you guys there.

Chaining lynches? Maybe you can make a case there, but given his opinion (there is only one anti-town in neighborhood), it makes sense. Not saying this is something town would say, just acknowledging that there are better suspects. We're probably going to get little info. out of Shanba, so i'm leaning that wagon right now.

Vote:Shanba

[MrBuddyLee]

DH posted the definitive case against Shanba. Has anyone played against Shanbascum enough to know whether outright defense of scumpartners is his style as scum?

I'm less likely to pay close attention to detail as scum
I'm more likely to lurk as scum
I like playing scum less and am therefore less likely to get involved with the game.

I love this honesty. Thank you.


I'm feeling saporo as scum more powerfully than I'm feeling Shanba. Yesterday, saporo jumped off Parama at L-2 to give him a chance to make his case, then jumped on Hrez instead of back on Parama without explaining the logic behind her abandonment of the Paramawagon.

KJ entered the game and claimed to find Parama suspect, which looked less sketchy than saporo's blatant protection. A few questions.

I don't think Demon is the SK.
DH hasn't given me the vibes of an SK
I'm more confident about you(DH) being town now that Bowser's flipped scum, as I've said before I think there was only one scum in the neighbors.

@KJ

: Can you please go into a little more detail on your DH comments? Also on this:

Out of Demon and Shanba, one of them is very likely to be scum.

You seemed to have had strong scumvibes on DH, but apparently they were specific to him being mafia, not SK? What's the nature of that read of yours? My initial take is that you seem to have had DemonHybrid locked in as your neighborscum as an alternative to Paramascum, but you didn't seem to consider the possibility that both could be scum/SK. So I'd like to hear a little more about your significantly nuanced DH read.

[Iecerint]

Saporo also called Parama "hopefully town lol" when she first started posting and was kinda awkward when people asked her about it.

I thought it was a towntell at the time because my honest reaction to the early game was similarly "I hope Parama is town lol," but in retrospect...

[mastin2]

@MBL:

Why no vote on either KJ or Shanba when neither is even close to being lynched?

[Hydra]

I'm derping on my partner, so I'm doing a bit of an info dump here as opposed to in our QT (promise to try to dig into QT later, Ludi, reallly, swears for real, and not like the last swear that got us prodded, really reals this time )

Okay;

Iec suxx0rs due to lack of kill attempt since it tells us jack all if Mafia are scared by his list of top suspects. His lack of death vaguely points towards that they aren't scared at all but if there was a RBer yadda, yadda, hey. I'm going to claim I'll go back and look at Meran's last few top suspects to figure out why he was a better kill than a Vig, but I'll probably just get Ludi to do it and then ruminate over his findings. We'll see.

(Oh, and if the pattern continues, Hydra [considered town by most people, identical to PJ] will be poisoned tonight

This is interesting to me, because it says to me 'newbie SK' I agree with the pattern you're noticing and am curious if you agree that suggests newb SK. I'm not going to go into deep analysis of optimal SK kills, but this tends to suggest the SK isn't thought of as very townish and/or is newbie - yeah? Paired with lack of Iec kill...well...SK probably wants Vig alive and may be NK immune so that gets super WIFOM, but I think the belief he's in the more suspect pool or mushy middle pool is very high.

Meran leaned town on Yos.
Meran was killed.
I think Yos is probably mislynch waiting to happen if we think he's scum (and I know both I and Ludi have had pretty consistent town reads on him) - discuss.
I *might* think he's SK off of PJ kill, but that tosses wrench in my thoughts about his kills thus far.
SK is either NK immune or not on Iec's list

Who is on that list?

DemonHybrid
saporovirus

Leaning not SK on DH methinks. He would have had to gamble for anyone believing he was 'protected' or would have had to argue scum RBed Iec. *Maybe* expected Iec dead, but, c'mon, that was risky for him to do and if he was wrong about RB he was basically claiming SK to scum team - balls that would be, casaba melon sized ones.

I'm happy enough with the KJ vote Ludi put us on.
I'm against Yos and DH wagons actually. (Mastin, you're probably half right with some of your thoughts, but ease back on the assured right business, yeah? Give me your thoughts on my own SK ramblings and try to sell me on DH SK, but I'm thinking you're wrong.)
That's me for now.

[mastin2]

1. DemonHybrid
2. Pine** earworm* Ythan
3. mastin2 Snow White**
4. Iecerint
5. killerjester saporovirus
8. CrashTextDummie Hrezs*
11. MrBuddyLee***
13. Yosarian2
14. Shanba***
16. Hydra (Thor655 + Magister Ludi)**
18. ToastyToast kondi2424**

Tell me, who in this list is a newb?

Pine, our absent player?
KJ, one of our preferred lynches?
ToastyToast, the neighbor-considered-confirmed-town?

...Yeah. More likely than not, your thought about newb-SK is wrong. The list in this game is pretty much pure vets. (Heck, Pine's a dang-good player [especially as scum] when he actually plays the game, so I don't really consider him a newb, either.)

You'll note Yos2 is not anyone's top choice for the lynch today. He needs to die, well before lylo, but he's not a lynch candidate. Shanba/KJ are the popular two. (And I'd be willing to lynch DH as an SK, too, but, well, I'm not sure I can convince you.)

Considering we have a vig and the mafia, it's not unreasonable to assume the SK is NK-immune. It's pretty standard, in fact. It also fits with the flavor. Both the vig and scum kills are shooting. That means something like "Bulletproof" would protect the SK from both kills.

That also invalidates the "not on Iece's list" part.

So, yeah. It's valuable insight on your part, Thor, but I happen to think you've come to the wrong conclusions on this matter. I still stick by DH as the SK. I might build a case later if there's interest, but really, I'm not sure there would be.

[killerjester]

You seemed to have had strong scumvibes on DH, but apparently they were specific to him being mafia, not SK? What's the nature of that read of yours? My initial take is that you seem to have had DemonHybrid locked in as your neighborscum as an alternative to Paramascum, but you didn't seem to consider the possibility that both could be scum/SK. So I'd like to hear a little more about your significantly nuanced DH read.

The scum reads I got from DH were simple, subtle hints that he used to consistently remind us that the neighborhood was a 3-town group. He's also heavily attacked Shanba and Yos2, which I saw as either legitimate suspicions or scum-bussing. And lastly, maybe the only hint I've gotten that he might be SK - he really hasn't been hunting the SK this game. I think DH-SK would try to play off the presence of a SK as not important, stressing that the mafia were the bigger threat. I find selective scumhunting to be an anti-town tell with 2 or more killing factions.

However, I got many more town reads from him, especially since Bowser flipped scum. I'll skip the boring parts (the tone of some of his posts sounded extremely genuine to me, and other suck minor things), so here are the big three things. First, yeah I don't think Amrun put in a 1/1/1 setup. The entire thought feels a little bastardy in the sense that putting both killing factions in such an easily-outtable group seems a little imbalanced for the anti-town. I'm not saying it couldn't happen, just that I thought it was unlikely - my other evidence is much stronger. Second, the part where DH's suggestions of a 3-town neighborhood

were

so subtle that I really don't believe it follows with the claim DH was acting out of survival. I think a DH-SK would have defended Parama/Bowser much more than he has, because an SK-neighbor really

can't

assume there's going to be a second anti-town in the neighbors to take the fall for him. And kondi was pretty much accepted to be town, so DH-SK would've probably seen himself getting lynched on the chance that Parama/Bowser flipped town. Lastly, though notably less important, I think his QT comments in #1044 are town-driven. Maybe it's WIFOM, and that's why I don't see it as a strong town-tell, but I don't think DH-SK would be THAT concerned about leaving a dying wish to Toast had the Mafia/Vig taken him out during the night as why would anyone listen to an SK fliP?

@Toast, I would like you to confirm on that last part

MBL hit the nail on the head though when he said most of my scumvibes were specific to a DH-scum, not SK. The SK tells I see in CTD/Yos2 are much stronger. I'd see CTD as a stronger SK suspect than Yos2, since Bowser bussed Yos2 (admittedly weak, though). Neither have really been looking for the SK, which follows with the selective scumhunting I've mentioned above. If I had to guess, I'd say CTD is the SK and Yos2 is scum.

[DemonHybrid]

If I had to guess, I'd say CTD is the SK and Yos2 is scum.

Unvote

. Maybe your Shanba vote had merit after all and I mistook the first two of your posts this day as badgering around until a wagon started (that was my point against you).

Vote: Shanba

.

[DemonHybrid]

Can we lynch the much-more-sure-to-be-scum Shanba instead of the ehh-he-kind-of-had-a-few-iffy-posts-but-he-makes-good-valid-points-especially-the-one-against-CTD killerjester?

[DemonHybrid]

mastin, lynch Shanba with us.

[DemonHybrid]

Furthermore, Iecerint might even be a good candidate for an SK. A

vig claim

and short one-sentence posts for the majority of his

latest

posts (though a strong beginning onslaught of information)

Food for thought. I mean, I guess Iecerint could have not used his action, but he said that after MERANSIEL THE TRACKER died soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[DemonHybrid]

Wait, never mind. I forgot there were 3 kills the first night and that petroleum was the one that was poisoned, not Meran.

FORGET WHAT I SAID I'M FIGURING SHIT OUT HERE

[ToastyToast]

@mastin: I'm not THAT newbish.

@killerjester:
What happened in the QT

DH: Im gonna die. KILL SHANBA AND YOSARIAN WITH FIRE
TT: Um, no. I'm way more likely to die. Shanba and yosarian are sumspects. sry bout having you there too
DH: k we're pseudo masons now

[DemonHybrid]

"It's okay, we're pseudo masons now", otherwise correct.

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm glad the Bowser lynch went through. Seeing as I don't agree with Mastin2 on DH (he struck me as group scum, not SK), and I don't find two scum-neighbors very likely at all, it looks like I was on the wrong track yesterday.

Hydra: Your NK-speculation is useless bordering on dangerous. I'd greatly appreciate us not going down that road any further.

Killerjester has all but confirmed himself as scum of some flavor with his posts today. He has a serious hard-on for the SK, virtually all his thinking seems to center around that role. This is a

very

reliable scumtell in my book. Either he's group scum who spent all night SK-hunting or he's the SK himself. Most amusing is that he got SK-vibes off of DH for

not

SK-hunting, which is about the clearest possible indicator that he does not have the mindset of a pro-town player.

Either way I want him gone.

vote: killerjester

[CrashTextDummie]

Can we lynch the much-more-sure-to-be-scum Shanba instead of the ehh-he-kind-of-had-a-few-iffy-posts-but-he-makes-good-valid-points-especially-the-one-against-CTD killerjester?

What good valid point has killerjester made against me, pray tell?

[killerjester]

So I'm anti-town for talking about the SK when MBL asks me about the SK? I think you're trying to twist what I'm saying into scummy play, moreso out of OMGUS than anything else - considering I'm confscum only after I call you out.

But I'll humor you. Who do you think the serial killer is if I flip group scum/town?

[CrashTextDummie]

You are proposing a hypothetical in which you're scum. Good show.

I don't really care who the SK is at this point.

DIE, SCUM, DIE.

[ToastyToast]

@CTD: Why no mention of yosarian and shanba? What do you think of the shanba wagon?

[CrashTextDummie]

Because I haven't read back yet to determine how the Bowser flip influences my reads on them. I think any wagon that isn't KJ right now is foolish since he basically claimed scum.