NY135: Sexy Sedilla Semi-Open - Town Wins

[mastin2]

Do note. With a Goon-Spy-flip, scum had no rolecop. In other words, scum had no way of knowing for sure LLD was scum. Using "I lynched LLD!" as an excuse is not valid, since he didn't KNOW for sure that LLD was scum.

Tl;dr?

VOTE: Magister Ludi. Third time's the charm.

[Oversoul]

Sprex hoping onto Ythan an Ethos bullshitting makes me think Mastin's slot is town.

And y'all can thank me later for LLD.

I was always suspicious of Spyrex.
VOTE: Ludi

Partial v/la so I won't be adding much content.

[mastin2]

That was the hammer.

It's over, Ludi. Town wins.

[kanyeknowsbest]

yep.

[Faraday]

=====Consider the thread Locked=====


(Reck has no net but his phone so I'll post the votecount and flip and stuff in a second)

[Faraday]

Magister Ludi (3): mastin2, MrZepher, Oversoul
MrZepher (1) Magister Ludi

Not voting: Kanyeknowsbest

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

LYNCH HAS BEEN REACHED!

[Faraday]

Magister Ludi,

Vanilla Townie

, lynched Day 5

Night 5 begins. Deadline is in (expired on 2011-08-09 20:28:05).

[xRECKONERx]

kanyeknowsbest,

Vanilla Townie

, killed Night 5

It is now Day 6. With 3 alive (and a tree stump!), it takes 2 to lynch.

[Oversoul]

I am pretty sure it is Zepher.

[mastin2]

(Typed during the night, for the most part.)
I have no excuses. If you're expecting me to defend my play, I will not. Nothing justifies a failure of this magnitude. I was just that sure on Ludi. Everything fit into place, perfectly, with Ludi. It just made so much sense, as Ludi.

Yet it wasn't Ludi.

The gambit failed.


I'll accept, 100%, the entire blame for a town loss. Nobody else should receive any flak for what was completely and totally driven by me. I'll take all the criticisms. I'll take all the people calling me Honorary Scumbag. I'll accept pretty much half the playerlist vowing never to play with me again, due to my failure.

I deserve it all.


But before the game ends.

I do have one last request. Oversoul and MrZepher, please don't vote me, yet. If the voter is town, the scum quickhammers me for an instant scum victory. If the voter is scum, and the remaining player does not vote for me, then the voter is scum, and they've robbed me of my one last chance to find the scum. Of my last chance to get so much as a slimmer of redemption this game.

As scum, you know that you've likely already gotten a cheap victory, courtesy of me. Since you've gained that easy win, you can at least honor my last request and return the favor by letting me try to find you.

As town, you 'know' that I'm already 'caught scum', and won't be fighting my way out of a loss. You'll be voting me, anyway, so I have nothing to gain from waiting other than personal pride. It's something you'd understand if you were in my situation. That instead of achieving an actual victory, I'm looking for a personal one. If our situations were reversed, you'd be asking the same of me, to get one final chance, one final shot at finding the scum, even though it's in vain and you've already lost. And I'd grant it to you.


Kunk, I realize that you should be thinking I'm scum, too. And I realize you have no vote, no thanks to me. :/ But I do want your help. Assuming Oversoul and MrZepher agree to my request, I'd like you to give your feedback on who you think would be scum if you didn't think it was me.

(But, heck. I'd think I was scum if I didn't know I wasn't.)


Tl;dr?

I won't argue against my lynch. Within a weak, I fully expect to be dead, and for scum to win. I just want something to take from this game that wouldn't be a complete and total failure. To end on a high note. You can allow a defeated man that much, can't you?

[mastin2]

(For the curious, the only part I modified is where you see "Oversoul and MrZepher", I had "*survivor's names here*".)

Oh, and just for the record--I went into last night heavily leaning towards kayne/oversoul being the nightkill, and whoever lived among them to be more likely than Zepher to be the last scum.

[Oversoul]

(For the curious, the only part I modified is where you see "Oversoul and MrZepher", I had "*survivor's names here*".)

Oh, and just for the record--I went into last night heavily leaning towards kayne/oversoul being the nightkill, and whoever lived among them to be more likely than Zepher to be the last scum.

Did you seriously just imply that I wad scum?

[mastin2]

Since Kayne would probably analyze this, I suppose it's my job to take his place.

Really, really town

04. Mastin2
09.

SpyreX

Town

12.

Untrod Tripod

x
07.

Îdher

(Amrun + Ether hydra) x
05. Magister Ludi

Null

01.

Lady Lambdadelta

02. MrZepher
03.

dramonic

06.

kanyeknowsbest

13.

Chair

(implosion + Misder)
14.

T-Bone

x
15. Oversoul

Scum

16.

kunkstar7

17.

Yosarian2

08.

Hiraki

Really, really scum

10.

Ethos

(Slaxx + Regfan hydra)

Yosarian2

(8):

Lady Lambdadelta

, mastin2,

Untrod Tripod

,

Chair

,

SpyreX

,

Empking

,

Hiraki

, MrZepher

Untrod Tripod

(9):

Chair

, mastin2,

T-Bone

,

Ethos

,

Hiraki

,

Magister Ludi

, MrZepher,

Yosarian2

,

kunkstar7

Empking

(8):

SpyreX

,

Magister Ludi

,

T-Bone

,

kanyeknowsbest

,

Yosarian2

, Oversoul,

Lady Lambdadelta

,

Empking

Chair

(6):

SpyreX

,

kanyeknowsbest

, mastin2,

Yosarian2

,

kunkstar7

,

LLD

Lady Lambdadelta

(5):

kunkstar7

,

Îdher

, MrZepher,

Chair

, Oversoul

Other wagons of note
Ethos (5): kanyeknowsbest,

Untrod Tripod

,

Hiraki

,

SpyreX

, Mastin2
Empking (5):

Îdher

,

Ethos

,

kunkstar7

,

Lady Lambdadelta

,

Yosarian2

annnd i was waiting to post this. ludi not lookin too hot here. ive got more to say about that but ill save it til tomorrow.

Empking's list isn't very helpful, since from my view, the two are identical--both in null.

The order might be important, though. Might. If he did them most to least, then that makes a huge difference, but it's hard to tell if he did or not.

Looking at it, it looks like he just put in the playerlist from the first post and moved the town/really town/scum/really scum to their appropriate spots. So much for that idea.

Also, note that if the final scum is on Oversoul, every single scumbag in the game was on the Empking wagon. (I knew it was scum-driven, but was it really *THAT* scum driven?!?)

Did you seriously just imply that I wad scum?

That's what I believed when I typed the above, yes. But 1: I need to remain as objective as possible. I need to think things through as logically as I possibly can, since my instinct for the first time in forever has consistently been failing me. And 2: The above analysis kinda suggests you're not. All the scum on the Empking wagon was--as I mentioned at the time--something which seemed too bold for them to do.

[mastin2]

D'oh. There's *always* one mistake.

Town
12. Untrod Tripod x
07. Îdher (Amrun + Ether hydra) x
05. Magister Ludi

Ludi's name should be blue.

(Also, to elaborate on the above. I actually thought you were going to die, Oversoul, and that Kayne was the last scum. I knew no scum in their right minds would kill either me or Zepher, after all. I evaluated things and concluded it was possible Kayne was town and would die, but that it'd make you, Oversoul, more likely to be scum due to it. Yet now I'm doubting that.

I hate this. I hate being so weak. So doubtful. I'm used to being so confident, so sure of myself. Ludi's had the ultimate psychological victory over me, in that regard. But it's what happened.)

[Oversoul]

I think Ludi was on to something. Zepher is most likely the last scum a d I have had a town read on your slot for a while. Who convinced Kunk to stump?

[mastin2]

Make that two.

Other wagons of note
Ethos (5): kanyeknowsbest,

Kayne's name should be blue as well.

Still, that doesn't change the situation. Let's remove the fluff.

Yosarian2 (8): Lady Lambdadelta, mastin2, SpyreX, Empking, MrZepher
Untrod Tripod (9): mastin2, MrZepher,
Empking (8): SpyreX, Oversoul, Lady Lambdadelta, Empking
Chair (6): SpyreX, mastin2, LLD
Lady Lambdadelta (5): MrZepher, Oversoul

Other wagons of note
Ethos (5): SpyreX, Mastin2
Empking (5): Lady Lambdadelta

If you don't understand what I just did, I just removed all the town names from there, leaving only unconfirmed and scum. It's a little easier to get perspective on things that way. It also shows we have some conflicting data.
-The Yos2 wagon is obviously scum-driven. You can tell that; it has 3/4 confirmed scum. For the final scum to be me or Zepher, that'd mean all four scum went onto the Yosarian2 wagon, which makes less sense than even Empking.
-The Empking wagon was also scum-driven; it ALSO has 3/4 confirmed scum. For the final scum to be Oversoul, that'd ALSO mean all four scum were on a wagon, in this case, bussing Empking.

The two essentially invalidate the VCA for those wagons, since they counter each other. The Empking one looks more likely, admittedly, but that conflicts with the UT wagon, which strongly suggests at least one scum, since the wagon shouldn't have been all-town.

A tl;dr version?

This VCA is contradicting itself, and therefore, I'm not going to be able to learn anything from it.


Oversoul: it was me who led that. I alone was responsible.

[mastin2]

I'm going to try and widen the scale. Do every single mod-listed votecount. Believe it or not, I've only done it on this kind of a scale, this late in the game, once before in my entire career--and that was as an alt.

Though we technically have four alive, this is effectively 3p lylo. I can count the number of times that's happened on a single hand.
-Once (town) as an alt. I used a similar strategy to point towards the last scum. I didn't use VCA exclusively, so nor shall I use it exclusively this game.
-Once (town) when I was invited into the 3P lylo. I came in, on the day of lylo, read my predecessor's ISO, along with the ISO of flipped scum, and a few pages which I skimmed, plus my fellow replacers and their replacees' isos. I was about 70% confident enough in my read, not enough to cast the first vote--I tricked the scum into voting me first, allowing me to jump up to 100% and vote back.
-Once (scum) in a Marathon, where I dayvigged my partner the second I was capable of doing so and basically coasted to the endgame.

That's it. (When you play the way I do, you tend not to live for very long. )


So, I'm going to be trying to take examples from the first two. The second one is what I attempted to do on replacing in--but never finished. The first one I think I'll review, see what I did there.

I'm going to give this game my all to try and find out who it is. 'Cause really, I'm clueless. It's really 50/50. (Okay. So it varies. Sometimes, I'll see something which tips the scales to 55/45, or even 60/40. Then something which tips it the other way. To 45/55 or even 40/60. And then with the two conflicting images in my mind, it resets to be 50/50. So effectively 50/50. )

I've done this before. (Not often, but it's happened.) I can do it again. (The time as an alt was a relatively fast game with pretty short deadlines. I think Days were only a week long. So, I'll inflict a self-challenge to beat my old record [something like six days] and do it in only five.)

[Magister Ludi]

Go town

[mastin2]

I'll also be reviewing my old notes. See what I can dig up there. In Desert Mafia, I was basically completely lost in the situation, for instance, and read my notes. My notes were awesome, in that they contained the entire scumteam, which I now was more sure of thanks to having the additional info.

I sincerely doubt I have that in my notes for this game, but you never know until you look! (I am so neglectful of my notes... )

[Oversoul]

Sorry Ludi. I really thought everyone was right about your slot.

[kunkstar7]

More comments later but no one vote just yet. Maatin's posts are giving me fake vibes, but before today i was sure mastinvludi was townvtown. I also dont think empking would fill the towntown cat. With only scum, but thats questionable as well.

[MrZepher]

The fuck.

Quite frankly, I'm pretty sure Oversoul should be dead by now.
He's been the only close to confirmed this entire game, yet he hasn't once died.

Also, OF COURSE THE EMPKING WAGON WAS SCUM DRIVEN. IT WAS BOOKIED.
I wouldn't expect any less than every scum in the game to have been on that wagon.
It would have benefited them to distance at least a little.

Mastin is being "I just fucked up. OMG." Mastin (which means he's town), as opposed to "I messed up, BUT..." Mastin (which would mean he's scum)
They may SEEM similar, but there's a distinct difference. Town Mastin is willing to take a step back and see wtf just happened.

By what I'm going to blatantly point point out as flimsy PoE it would have to be Oversoul.
The only real super solid suspicion I have comes from SpyreX's comments blatantly calling Oversoul either fresh town, or crafty scum.

This is where I'm sitting right now.

[mastin2]

Alright.

This is just creeping me out.

The confirmed town player is showing suspicions of me.
Yet both the other players with votes are calling me town. In practically an identical manner, no less. (Honestly, if Zepher had shown suspicion of me, I'd be thinking a lot stronger that he was town and Oversoul was scum. But BOTH calling me town?!? You're not making this easy on me. >_<)

More comments later

Looking forward to this, since I

do

need some help, here. No matter how much I try to keep to traditional "sane" views, I'm Mastin. Standard Logic is not my strongsuit.

[mastin2]

Oh, and random note:

Mastin is being "I just fucked up. OMG." Mastin (which means he's town), as opposed to "I messed up, BUT..." Mastin (which would mean he's scum)
They may SEEM similar, but there's a distinct difference. Town Mastin is willing to take a step back and see wtf just happened.

Ironically enough, in my Guide To Scumhunting, in the Tone section, I have a section on "change in tone", which says that changing from confident to doubtful is harder to fake as scum, whereas keeping confidence is overall null since it's easier to fake as scum but still comes from legitimate townies.

...That makes more sense when you see the wording in the Guide. But needless to say, this is actually the exact scenario you describe. "Wrong but continues on, anyway" isn't itself scummy, in that arrogant town does it just as often as scum faking arrogant town, but it is easier for the scum to pull off convincingly. Essentially, "easier to ignore your mistakes than address them".

"Wrong and suddenly shows extreme doubt" isn't itself a town-tell, but it's harder for scum to fake because, well, they already knew they were wrong before.

Essentially, exactly what you said. It's easier to go, "I messed up, BUT..." than it is to go, "...I...screwed up......" (Bonus points for those who can figure out what that's a quote of. Loved that show.) I might work your wording into my guide, so thanks for the inspiration.

(Of course, by revealing that I knew the difference between them before-hand, I kinda invalidate your tell and make it null. )

Anyway, I've gotten through about five or so of my VCAs. (I've been doing other things, for the most part.) I'll post them when I finish. They'll be IIoA at first, since it's hard to actually see useful information without actually seeing the colors, which I can only do after posting. I'll analyze after posting, naturally. (But so far, I've made a discovery which tipped the scales!
...To 51/49. )

[Oversoul]

The key to winning this game is LLD. The scum didn't know her alignment, and she played with an arrogance, like Spyrex, that she wouldn't get caught. Her reads Are were discussion should start in my opinion.