ASOIAF: Test of Faith Mafia (Game Over!)

[Thor665]

How does cult not win if Espeonage is limited kill SK?
I already outlined how that worked.

[Magua]

Because, Thor, if Espeonage is limited kill SK, cult will never have enough votes to force a lynch without either Espeonage helping or mafia shooting Espeonage. Neither of which are going to happen.

[Thor665]

You're in one of two situations:
Mafia shoots SpyreX: It's now you + me (town) vs Espeonage (SK) vs Nexus (mafia)
Mafia shoots me: It's now you + SpyreX (cult) vs Espeonage (SK) vs Nexus (mafia).

How do you win?

By being in the second setup and lynching Nexus.
Espeo has no kills left so then we lynch him and CUlt wins and I win - derpy doo.
Does that excite you for my answer?

By being in the first setup - it will actually be Thor (town) Magua (cult) Espeo (SK) and Nexus (mafia)
At that point we lynch Nexus and then no matter who we lynch I lose.

So, as I said, I win by becoming cult.

You're disagreeing with the setups you provided now?

[Thor665]

Because, Magua, seriously. I know you're cult, you have to be, everyone else is cult or mafia or SK already.

So, unless cult is stupider than hell you're cult right now.
If you're town than you should go with the reverse, know that I'm cult right now, and your way of winning is by becoming cult. So let's lynch a mafia, recruit my cute backside, and get me to a wincon.

[Thor665]

Oh. and if by some magic you really are town, than town's only chance of winning is lynching scum anyway so...wtf?

[Magua]

You're disagreeing with the setups you provided now?

I'm disagreeing with your ability to count.

Show me this hypothetical vote count you think that's going to occur tomorrow that leads to a cult win, under the assumption that Espeonage is a limited-kill SK who loses regardless of who is lynched in a 4-way endgame.

So, unless cult is stupider than hell you're cult right now.

This game.

Are you concerned about what Espeonage is going to say or who he's going to want lynched?

Oh. and if by some magic you really are town, than town's only chance of winning is lynching scum anyway so...wtf?

If Espeonage is cult, he knows who the scum are.

[Thor665]

Show me this hypothetical vote count you think that's going to occur tomorrow that leads to a cult win, under the assumption that Espeonage is a limited-kill SK who loses regardless of who is lynched in a 4-way endgame.

Kingmaker. And it's a hell of a lot larger chance than my current chance which is 'snowflake in hell'.
Show me the hypothetical where cult def. loses? They'll have two of needed 3 votes - and since Espeo can't win no matter what they can bribe him with 'at least it'll end the game faster' As soon as you're SK and are claiming with, like four days to go you're basically admitting you've lost.

Are you concerned about what Espeonage is going to say or who he's going to want lynched?

If Espeonage is cult, he knows who the scum are.

If Espeonage is cult and wants to claim that I care about what he says.
If he's not...well, I'm fine hearing it, but I don't see how it will really help.

I've already said I'm happy to sheep any claimed cult.
I have no idea why you want to sheep a claimed SK unless he claims cult first.

[Espeonage]

Just played through the logic in my head.

Scum needs to be lynched today for anyone other than scum to have a decent chance at winning.

But think. Scum know this. There are three people who have yet to vote. One is me (Not Scum). Either there is a bus (Stupid). Or the scumteam is Locke/Nexus or Spy/Magua. I think it is the latter.

Vote: Spy

[ooba]

Vote Count

Locke Lamora (2)

- SpyreX, Thor665,

SpyreX (1)

- Espeonage

Not Voting (3)

- Locke Lamora, Nexus, Magua

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

[Espeonage]

Oh Magua unvoted. Hmm. That changes things.

[Magua]

But think. Scum know this. There are three people who have yet to vote. One is me (Not Scum). Either there is a bus (Stupid). Or the scumteam is Locke/Nexus or Spy/Magua. I think it is the latter.

Man, SpyreX could be cult recruiter, but he can't be mafia.

Offer stands. Claim and I sheep you.

Otherwise, it's back to voting Locke for me.

[SpyreX]

Sooo looks like there's wacky cult hijinks since Esp pretty much just claimed cult with Thor.

Magua here's the big issue with your train of thought especially since I'm still town:

If I am CR and Esp is a culted vig every pants on head action Esp has made makes even LESS sense. LB kill? No way in hell. The dayvig with the fake cult caveat? Impossibro. No way, no WAY would that have went down like that.

[Thor665]

Sooo looks like there's wacky cult hijinks since Esp pretty much just claimed cult with Thor.

Yeah, because a cult with me and kill power in it wouldn't kill a recruit immune town.

He didn't peg me as scum because I'm obv. not scum and am also obv. not cult and am the only player talking remote sense besides, maybe, the openly claimed SK - and that's gakked up!

[SpyreX]

Considering the state of affairs at any point killing scum is way more vital than killing me. I get endgamed at any point and growing strength makes it harder to get lynched.

Which, of course, means Esp thought LB was scum which is insane. However, it fits more than other options.

[Magua]

I thought about that, SpyreX -- Espeonage/Thor cult buddies -- but Thor can't be the cult recruiter due to the hasdgfas investigation.

I can believe Espeonage-cult thought LB was scum. I can see cult recruiter recruiting LB Night 2, failing due to a Bilbo Baggins jailkeep, and then assuming that Lost Butterfly was unrecruitable, which, after the mass claim, would lead them to think that Lost Butterfly was scum.

If I am CR and Esp is a culted vig every pants on head action Esp has made makes even LESS sense. LB kill? No way in hell. The dayvig with the fake cult caveat? Impossibro. No way, no WAY would that have went down like that.

No pants on head than any other option. And, since mafia have daytalk, it seems a short leap to cult have daytalk, which leads to many possible hijinx.

[SpyreX]

Thor can't but Esp could. Taking us back to that original pile of madness.

Killing LB at that juncture would have absolutely been pants on head for me CR.

On a different note since saying it made me think about it more: what in the HELL was up with that caveat on that dayvig. Why caveat it if you have the option available? Needless to say I don't believe his reason on face because it makes NO sense as cult or as sk.

[Thor665]

Does it make sense as town or mafia?

That's the thing that bugs me about both of your thoughts on Espeo - you keep making up wild and outlandish theories and tag on the "makes no sense" attribute as though it makes a difference - without noting that his play makes no sense whatsoever in any particular vein.

Also, I think his caveat *does* make sense as a limited kill SK who was recruit immune and definitely if he was also NK immune. Because Scum would be fine with a cult killing tool and he'd be immune from cult reprisals.

Also, none of this matters at all unless you want to claim he's scum.

[SpyreX]

...

No matter what the result of Esp's role its going to make no sense somewhere along the field.

Esp is absolutely not town or mafia. Its either Cult or SK.

I'm just trying to figure it out because that might make other things click in. Mostly as a logic exercise because I'm dead in the water in most? if not all scenarios anywho.

----

Why would he lie about that if he WAS NK immune? If he was why not just goad the shot?

[Thor665]

Because town Vigs are rarely NK immune - derp, he was saying he was town then.

[Locke Lamora]

Esp, do you know that Spyrex is scum?

[Thor665]

Hey, Locke, if you're not scum you should claim cult, then I'll sheep you. There is no way this ends badly.

[SpyreX]

If he was scum shouldn't he claim cult too? God in heaven game.

Esp knowing I'm scum would be an awesome trick and pretty clearly he obviously knows I am from how those posts were.

Can we quit dickin' around and just make this happen?

[Magua]

Esp knowing I'm scum would be an awesome trick and pretty clearly he obviously knows I am from how those posts were.

Share with the rest of the class, please.

[SpyreX]

Sarcasm.

Mostly at Locke the non existant trying to spin this:

But think. Scum know this. There are three people who have yet to vote. One is me (Not Scum). Either there is a bus (Stupid). Or the scumteam is Locke/Nexus or Spy/Magua. I think it is the latter.

Is IRON CLAD evidence that me and you are scum together.

[Magua]

You're a cheeky git. Who's the recruiter in your world?