Mini 1219 - Bedtime Stories Mafia - Game Over!

[Llamarble]

WV can go next. Bansheescum, we're now up to 4 claimed roles, which is starting to feel like a lot.
That's why I want to just go ahead; I had EB as somewhat role-cleared but if he's actually role-obvscum I want to know.
Scum already know enough to direct their NKs etc.

[implosion]

The scum in the VTs is most likely either WV or neruz.

[Banshee]

I supported massclaim because there were softclaims everywhere.
I forgot that yours was not one of the three before massclaim but rather came during it.
Unfortunately I think you're enough of a derp not to lynch you for pushing this BS.

You misrepresented your motivations. You can call it a mistake but you corrected it awfully quickly and well before you could have read the thread again to SEE your mistake, arguing that you knew it wasn't true as soon as you posted it. Otherwise you wouldn't have spun on a dime like that.

I think you're scum. I could be wrong, but I'm not dishonest about it and I'm not misrepresenting facts to try to put other people in a less favourable light. So I invite you to go ahead and lynch me if you think you can. Bring it on.

[Ellibereth]

llama
or banshee
wtf is this argument
I think I know what it is but if what I think is right it's just really really stupid.

[Llamarble]

Elli, it is stupid. My position on the argument is that it is stupid.

[Llamarble]

He wants to lynch me because I said his softclaim was a reason I approved of massclaim, when on looking back it was other peoples' softclaims and his came later.

[Evil Bullet]

@Evil Bullet:
I want an explanation of why you said you thought I was scum earlier and then never returned to explain that comment. You've been awfully silent lately.

Yeah I'm accompanying for my school's men's chorale and camp just ended. I'll get to it tonight.

[Rainbowdash]

Im thinking

One of [WV/llama]
One of [hiphop/EB]

[Llamarble]

Scum in the PRs isn't 100% guaranteed if scum have awesome powers of their own.
I definitely think we find the VT scum first.

[Llamarble]

Rainbow, what about Neruz?
Agreed on WV though.

Also why me?

[Rainbowdash]

Scum in the PRs isn't 100% guaranteed if scum have awesome powers of their own.
I definitely think we find the VT scum first.

Yeah but IC + three roles to guard them?

Scum have to be holding something really good to counter that. More likely EB is scum RBer/JK or hiphop is scum watcher.

Neruz I think is town because I have had that read just about the whole game.

You never really did anything to get VM lynched. You keep calling him scum but keep ending up on the counter wagons. Plus I can really see a you-hiphop team which has the ol' hackles up.

[Llamarble]

You never really did anything to get VM lynched. You keep calling him scum but keep ending up on the counter wagons. Plus I can really see a you-hiphop team which has the ol' hackles up.

True enough on the I thought he was a pretty likely scum but didn't end up on his wagon thing.
I'm still town though.
And I certainly know enough to stay away from FoS buddy vote townie.
Also I would totally have coached him well enough to keep him from getting lynched.

Bodyguard + IC feels around (slightly less than) mason-strength
odd vig + even JK is about (slightly more than) JOAT strength
Watcher is watcher.

My face wouldn't explode if all that stuff was town, particularly if scum is decently powered up (and we know they have daytalk at minimum).

[Llamarble]

What was the thing from the other game? Or was it ongoing or something?

[Banshee]

Yeah but IC + three roles to guard them?

Scum have to be holding something really good to counter that. More likely EB is scum RBer/JK or hiphop is scum watcher.

Neruz I think is town because I have had that read just about the whole game.

I agree with everything here. Except I think hiphop is far more likely than EB. In order for me to believe that EB was scum fake-claiming, I would have to believe that scum had a day rolecop who targeted Beck and then provided EB with a fakeclaim to go along with that, or that EB is being honest about his claim but not his alignment and is a scum-aligned jailkeeper, which as implosion has noted has no real utility in the game for scum and would be a negative for them more likely than a positive. It would also leave scum relatively underpowered in my opinion.

I think I was wrong about Rainbowdash, because I had forgotten about the breadcrumbing of PGO, which I did pick up on at the time and then promptly tried to ignore. As scum, I probably wouldn't have taken the risk either. So I think my logic was off there.

Mathematically there nearly has to be scum in the claimed powerroles because otherwise town has more powerroles than vanilla townies. So the argument being made by some is not valid.

Five power roles for town claimed (two known)
Seven vanilla townies (one known)
One known scum

If there are two scum remaining and both are vanilla, that makes five power roles to five townies. That's pretty overpowered, especially for only three scum.

If there are three scum remaining (which would seem more likely if all powerroles are truthful) then if all were vanilla you would have five town power roles and four vanilla townies. I don't think this is likely, if it is even possible.

So one of the power roles is lying. My bet is on hiphop because that's a role that I feel would be pretty easy to fake for scum.

[Llamarble]

There aren't 3 scum left. Hell no. That's 3 mislynches and 4 lynches to win.
Anytime you need more scumlynches than townlynches you're not being fair without MASSIVE power, which we don't have.

Grey and I played together recently in a game with:
Town tracker
Town 1 shot tracker (yes 2 trackers)
Town 1 shot jailkeeper
Town 1 shot vig
Town 1 shot cop
5 VTs
Mafia goon
Mafia 1 shot watcher
Mafia rolecop

Compared to that, we're fine here if all our PRs are town.

[Llamarble]

That setup had scum daytalk by the way.

[Llamarble]

You know, if I was scum with Hiphop I'd absolutely be advocating "KILL THE VT SCUM FIRST" and then relying on my unlynchability to win.
I can see your concern.
MUAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[Banshee]

The setup you mentioned is far less overpowered for town than the one we're presented with if all claimed powerroles are correct. Four one-shot roles and one tracker are far less powerful than even-night jailkeeper, odd-night vig, watcher, bodyguard and innocent child.

Scum only have daytalk so long as the encryptor is alive, at least in past games I have played. So they don't have daytalk now.

I don't get your point about how we should be scared of you if you're scum. You are advocating killing from the VT pool first, even more than anyone else since you're arguing that there are no scum in the PR pool. So you're saying that if you were scum with hiphop you'd be... doing exactly what you're doing now?

Point taken.

[Rainbowdash]

Llama, the roles make it very unlikely for all the PRs to be town due to how they can protect eachother without having at least a scum RBer and possibly some sort of bypass role.

Just look at BG+Watcher. BG targets watcher, and its a combo that requires a RBer to break. Plus we have THREE roles that can stop a kill on the IC. That makes no sense without some sort of powerhouse. That and hiphop guessing I am an EBG and the kill on Beck makes a little more sense, especially if EB is town.

If all the claimed roles are town, I would expect no goons, which is unlikely because the current games seem to be aimed at dimishing the amount of swing. I would be shocked if EB and hiphop are town, although the problem is they both look town on interactions. I don't want to lynch either of them today due to all that confusion. This should work though.

[Llamarble]

Uh, If they shoot the watcher and you die does the watcher see who they shot?
1shot cop is of order IC strength
tracker is perhaps a bit better than watcher
odd/even vigJK is stronger than 1shots, but not hugely so.
1shottracker isn't really outclassed by bodyguard.

Regardless, it's obvious there's a VT scumbag.
We should get that one first and see what it flips.
Scum will narrow down the PR pool for us in all likelihood anyway.

[Llamarble]

Er, who fired the shot

[Rainbowdash]

Uh, If they shoot the watcher and you die does the watcher see who they shot?

They should since they end up targeting me instead of the watcher. Its basically a redirect.

1shot cop is of order IC strength

No its not. I would always take IC over one shot cop.

tracker is perhaps a bit better than watcher

No its not. I would always take watcher over tracker.

Regardless, it's obvious there's a VT scumbag.
We should get that one first and see what it flips.
Scum will narrow down the PR pool for us in all likelihood anyway.

Which is why I want to lynch WV today.

[Ellibereth]

guys stop theory arguing.
it won't help alignment
it's about what GREY thinks anyways not us.
almost done reeval but it's not as reevalish as i thought

[Llamarble]

I think we've gotten to the point of agreeing to lynch VTs until we find scum, so that leaves us out of theory-ville for now.

I don't get your point about how we should be scared of you if you're scum. You are advocating killing from the VT pool first, even more than anyone else since you're arguing that there are no scum in the PR pool. So you're saying that if you were scum with hiphop you'd be... doing exactly what you're doing now?

Yup.
Lynching VTs is the right move though.
I just had the thought "man if I was scum with Hiphop this would be an awesome development" so I posted it.
LOOK AT ME I'M SO TRANSPARENT I WEAR MY HEART ON MY SLEEEVE.

[Llamarble]

I'm having trouble making up my mind between WV and Neruz.
Neruz has this I DO NOT TOLERATE STUPIDITY stuff and my experience with him is not of him being a derp.
Not being a derp is inconsistent with:
1. Not knowing 3 cults was unlikely
2. Not knowing Beck died
Which makes me think he faked that and is scum.
Also he was the fakehammer on Voided that led to Voided's wagon dissolving and then was not wagoning Voided when Voided died.
I can probably find more but yeah his blood needs to be on the menu.
VOTE: Neruz