Imperial Intrigue (Endgame, OUT OF NOWHERE)

[PeregrineV]

Page 8 14 hours after game start?

It looks like RVS got missed.

[PeregrineV]

SleepyKrew - House Keiger
tclawren - Claimed to belong to House Argelev
kdowns - Claimed to belong to House Argelev
David Xanados - Claimed (not very clear) to

be

House Argelev
manho - Claimed to be of house argelev and

loyalist

.
JGDA - House McKarn
Otolia - House Delmar
sodaspirit - Claimed to

be

House Argelev

I normally love set-up speculation, but all we have is claims and no actual evidence. I think the most information to be gained is from one of the off-brand houses.

Vote: SleepyKrew

[PeregrineV]

@Sleepy- We have no definition of a "Loyal house" except what you, Otolia and JDGA have stated.

[PeregrineV]

Alright, I've got some role-based info to help make things easier to understand.
There are 2 main scum groups, Loyalists and Imperialists.
There are also several Houses. Those loyal to a House are town.
I want everyone to claim their alignment/House in their first post.

Also,

Rain Death on Otolia from Above

^Daykill^

I myself am House Keiger.
There is one House that is scum. It is Argelev.

In fact, it's hilarious if anyone still believes anything from my first two posts.

So it's all just made up? You said what's a good name......Keiger!

Not buying it.

@Whoever asked, I've never played with StrangerCoug, but yes, bad first posts.

[PeregrineV]

Unvote: Sleepy

Worse vig shot ever. What was your case on her again? That she was online at the time and daring you too?

Really, I saw no reason, nor did you give one.

And you outed yourself. In order to kill a VT who said you couldn't.

I made it small caps becuase it's a /ragerant, but I can't stand the all caps postings, they are so annoying.

[PeregrineV]

/meta
In 4 games with Gandalf, there have been 4 day1 claims.
50% power roles
50% flexible alignment
/meta

At some point I'm saying "No", and that point is now.

Vote: Gandalf

[PeregrineV]

Links?

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=17539
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=18459
[REDACTED]
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=19103

[PeregrineV]

No way there is 14 pages. Some tonight, the rest tomorrow (Monday).

[PeregrineV]

Vote: StrangerCoug

[PeregrineV]

Given that his name is flipped in red, I'd say chances are very high that StrangerCoug was mafia and not third party. Going by the flavor with their lynches, StrangerCoug was part of the "rebellion in the North" mafia and Empking was part of the "rebellion in the East" mafia.

I think this is more accurate in terms of speculation than this:

So Shinki wasn't detective then. O.o Well, that's surprising.

No it's not. She perfectly soft-claimed Gunsmith when she said '

tell me about your killing powers, Mr. Scum

'. She was wrong about the scum part since StrangerCoug was a third party but it doesn't matter anymore. He is unlikely to have a ally anymore.

The scum group is likely to be Eastern now. Reasonable estimation has them being at most 2 with killing abilities. The town had a day vig (SleepyKrew) and a a claimed Night Vig, so it's unlikely we have any other killing roles. A protective role was certainly implemented to work with the beloved part of David Xanatos role. After that we certainly have a roleblocker.

One question remains now : Who is doing the second kill ?

Another Third Party or Another Scum Group or both of them are due to an unknown factor (compulsive paranoid gun-owner) ? What are your thoughts on that ?

@kdowns : Any kills tonight ?

For the time being : VOTE: MattP for thinking he can cruise through Day 4 like if it were Day 1.

I'm curious to see where you see MattP "cruising" through day4 when he has all of one post.

[PeregrineV]

So Shinki wasn't detective then. O.o Well, that's surprising.

No it's not. She perfectly soft-claimed Gunsmith when she said '

tell me about your killing powers, Mr. Scum

'. She was wrong about the scum part since StrangerCoug was a third party but it doesn't matter anymore. He is unlikely to have a ally anymore.

The scum group is likely to be Eastern now. Reasonable estimation has them being at most 2 with killing abilities. The town had a day vig (SleepyKrew) and a a claimed Night Vig, so it's unlikely we have any other killing roles. A protective role was certainly implemented to work with the beloved part of David Xanatos role. After that we certainly have a roleblocker.

One question remains now : Who is doing the second kill ?

Another Third Party or Another Scum Group or both of them are due to an unknown factor (compulsive paranoid gun-owner) ? What are your thoughts on that ?


@kdowns : Any kills tonight ?

For the time being : VOTE: MattP for thinking he can cruise through Day 4 like if it were Day 1.

I think none thought red was a third party. The only people I've seen saying that someone who flipped scum is third party are scums in the same scum team.

My scumbuddies used that with me in other games. I used it in other games and so on.

You aren't town.

unvote vote otolia

This was a minor thought flash to me, but didn't really think too much of it at the time.

But if I'm not the only one thinking it, then maybe there is something too it.

Vote:Otolia

pedit- lol- You saying everyone else is wrong doesn't make them wrong.

[PeregrineV]

Sorry, just been lurking trying to figure out the mechanics of this type of mafia.

I've played with MattP before and he seems scummy to me from what I've read. Just my two cents though

VOTE: MattP

What mechanics would that be?

Can you point to specific scummy posts of MattP? Right now he looks newbie to me, but if every prodded lurker pops in to dump a vote on the person with the most votes, we're going to lose this game.

[PeregrineV]

I know what he is saying. We have played on another forum together where I am more aggressive. Since I am not playing that way I assume he thinks I am scummy. However, the reason I am not playing that way is because I don't know anyone here and am more reluctant to play the way I am comfortable playing yet.

Yeah, but scum zeroes in on that shit and goes for blood.

Get aggressive.
Scumhunt.
Make scum work to lynch you.

[PeregrineV]

Complete and Total 100% Unfounded Setup Speculation

Take this with a grain of salt.

We have had two anti-town flips - Empking as Terran mafia, and StrangerCoug as House Bremburg. Now there are two possible theories to draw here.

- Night 1, we had 3 kills. SleepyKrew's death was claimed as a 1-shot kill by vigKdowns.
- Night 2, we had 1 kill. David Xanatos was fairly easy to work out as a Beloved Princess, however, and as such could have easily drawn two shots from multiple scumteams.
- Night 3, we have 2 kills. Shinki was an obvious kill as a gunsmith, and monk was obvious as a mason.

Option 1: We are in a two scum, no 3rd party setup. This is the one I feel more likely about, reflecting on the night kills and where they fell. JDGA was a fairly neutral kill, as was gandalf. SKs usually make bold, vocal kills because they want to avoid

all

attention, so as long as their target wasn't onto them - it's a solid choice. This would mean that House Bremburg is a mafia faction (and SC would have been a limited modified Godfather), and the likely numbers (based on common balance) would be 3 mafia left in each faction. 16:4:4 is a fairly balanced way to go for a setup. Worst case scenario for a really bad town, you're in a 6:4:4 pseudo-MYLO after 3 nights of play, assuming you suck at lynching scum, the 1-shot shoots wrong, and both scum factions shoot a different town player every night.

Option 2: We are in a two-scum, 1 SK setup. SC was the SK, by this logic. Tough sell on this is that two of the four killers on Night 1 (1-shot Vig, Terran Mafia, Other Mafia, SK-SC) stacked up their kill. Given the 3 deaths, I find it highly unlikely. I'd still say 15:4:4:1, but maybe 17:3:3:1 depending on how powerful the mafia are.

TL;DR: I'm bored and slightly intrigued by setup possibilities and figured I'd put them out in writing in case anyone actually cared to take an insight.

P-Edit: I'll get to you scum-man.

I love set-up speculation too.

I think option 1 is more likely. I can't see an SK even bothering with the David Princess, knowing that the mafia will be hitting them. However, another scum team would also want the advantage but couldn't be sure the other scumteam would do it. Unless there is a non-killing SK, but that just seems like a mean role to create.

In my first large theme I played here, Cold War mafia, the setup was 16:4:4, which I've come to find is the standard for that size, even though is seems like too many mafia to me. I've found that if it is a single scum team (which it doesn't look like here due to the coloring), it's usually a six-man one. But at that point, there is an SK because otherwise the game would last forever.

Flavorwise, going with Eastern mafia and Bremburg mafia, since that's it's usually listed <player><role name><faction><role><how died>.

[PeregrineV]

UNVOTE: MattP

As it looks right now, the day will be about lynching either vezok, SodaSpirit or MacDougall. Since the latter is on the frying pan, I am down on voting him.

VOTE: MacDougall

@MacDougall

:

• Why do you keep saying you are a Loyalist ?
• Do you have any alignment changing possibility/abilities ?
• Why in SodaSpirit would be a good lynch for today ?

And please don't use the 'I've already replied to that'-trope, if you already did, quote yourself clearly.

I keep saying I'm a loyalist because I am. In fact, I said I was a loyalist before the mod revealed, conclusively that it was the VT role PM. It's really all I've got to defend myself. I've obviously made posts that make me conclusively scum, since Agar has incessantly pointed out that I am definite scum, so I see no point refuting it despite not being scum, because obviously, as your vote and Agar's response to my defense of myself, the more I defend myself, the worse position I end up in.

Nope, I am vanilla.

SodaSpirit is a better lynch than me because I'm town. SodaSpirit is a better lynch than MattP because he's made more scum posts than MattP, who has seemingly been deflecting random accusations since he walked into the thread with a reserved, measured demeanor. SodaSpirit is a better lynch that Vezok, while seeming scum, has done a lot less reading/posting than SodaSpirit. If we lynch SodaSpirit, town or not town, we should get a better pattern of his remaining team, or at least it might be visible which of the scum unnaturally created reasons to vote for him. In saying that, you could lynch me for the exact same reason, and that'd be okay and understandable. Except I'm not going to actively encourage it, because I know I'm town.

Why are you suggesting that I am on "the frying pan" when yours is the first vote for me?

When you look over the thread, based on interactions with Empking and Stranger, who do you think is likely to be scum? Who do you think it likely to be town?

[PeregrineV]

I believe set up 1 is more likely. Vezok is a better lynch than MacDougall, but depending on how the day goes, I'd be willing to support a MacDougall lynch as well.
If anyone strikes me as VI, it's soda.

Anything to tie any of the three people to any of the flipped scum? Or just because?

[PeregrineV]

Vezok is tied to one of the scum, as was pointed out earlier.
He questioned Shi Ki as a cop and said that he could be lying to get SC killed. If two mafia teams are possible and SC is in one of them (which I believe) then Vezok is highly scummy for his defense of SC.

I generally don' think questioning the cop is scummy, but it does depend on how it is done. I will investigate.

@PeregrineV:

Why do you quote the setup speculation out ofmy post where I call you scum, but not respond to the part where I actually call you scum?

Well, because
1. I'm not scum.
2. Not worth my time defending a single vote for whatever reason when I could be re-reading the thread.
But, since you did follow-up with me, I'll go see what you said real fast and respond.

[PeregrineV]

VOTE: PeregrineV

Nothing that he's done or said (which isn't a lot) has seemed town-motivated.

This was your first mention, but since it's your opinion and it differs from mine, meh.

I'm suspicious of those who jumped onto StrangerCoug's lynch D2 while going, "lolcopreport": MacDougall (especially with #809 and #812), PeregrineV, Agar, Nero Cain (especially with #843), EtherealCookie. There be bussers in them thar hills. Money is on PeregrineV and Agar.

AGar is scum.
Peregrine is scum.

Here you think I'm bussing Stranger, but not sure what a "lolcopreport" is. I did vote Stranger for the cop result, but think that was pretty evident.
Otherwise, you don't say why you think I'm scum, just that you think I am with AGar.

[PeregrineV]

Votecount 1.7

Empking

(12)

:

EtherealCookie,

SleepyKrew

, Magua, Otolia, manho, MattP,

StrangerCoug

, SodaSpirit17,

Nero Cain

, kdowns,

Shinki

, Nero Cain, MacDougall

SleepyKrew

(2)

:

tclawren

,

David Xanatos

,

kdowns

,

gandalf5166

,

JDGA

,

MacDougall

,

manho

, whispersilk,

PeregrineV

,

Empking

,

StrangerCoug

,

SodaSpirit17

,

SodaSpirit17

David Xanatos

(2)

:

Magua

,

SleepyKrew

, tclawren,

Nero Cain

,

SodaSpirit17

,

Shinki

, AGar,

Empking

,

SodaSpirit17

,

vezokpiraka

,

Empking

Magua

(1)

:

monk

PeregrineV

(1)

:

gandalf5166

monk

(1)

:

vezokpiraka,

Empking

vezokpiraka

(1)

:

Otolia

,

David Xanatos

,

manho

gandalf5166

(1)

:

kdowns

,

vezokpiraka

,

Shinki

,

PeregrineV

Shinki

(0)

:

StrangerCoug

,

MacDougall

,

Nero Cain

,

Nero Cain

Otolia

(1)

:

gandalf5166

,

Empking

,

Empking

,

Empking

kdowns

(0)

:

EtherealCookie

tclawren

(0)

:

Magua

AGar

(0)

:

SodaSpirit17

No Lynch

(0)

:

MacDougall

Not Voting

(1)

:

Bogre

Was working on this but have to go home. More later.

[PeregrineV]

So Shinki wasn't detective then. O.o Well, that's surprising.

No it's not. She perfectly soft-claimed Gunsmith when she said '

tell me about your killing powers, Mr. Scum

'. She was wrong about the scum part since StrangerCoug was a third party but it doesn't matter anymore. He is unlikely to have a ally anymore.

The scum group is likely to be Eastern now. Reasonable estimation has them being at most 2 with killing abilities. The town had a day vig (SleepyKrew) and a a claimed Night Vig, so it's unlikely we have any other killing roles. A protective role was certainly implemented to work with the beloved part of David Xanatos role. After that we certainly have a roleblocker.

One question remains now : Who is doing the second kill ?

Another Third Party or Another Scum Group or both of them are due to an unknown factor (compulsive paranoid gun-owner) ? What are your thoughts on that ?


@kdowns : Any kills tonight ?

For the time being : VOTE: MattP for thinking he can cruise through Day 4 like if it were Day 1.

I think none thought red was a third party. The only people I've seen saying that someone who flipped scum is third party are scums in the same scum team.

My scumbuddies used that with me in other games. I used it in other games and so on.

You aren't town.

unvote vote otolia

@Magua- So do you disagree with Vezok's argument? Or do you find it invalid? If so, why?

[PeregrineV]

@PeregrineV:

Less IIoA. What does that votecount tell you?

Nothing yet. Have to compare it with another VC and hopefully the posts that match it.

For example, you were voting tclawren at some point, but unvoted him. Meanwhile, tclawren voted Sleepy and DavidX, but never EmpKing.

Was your vote RVS, or something else?
Did tclawren mention EmpKing?
Did EmpKing mention tclawren?
Anything relating to tclawren and Stranger?
Where did tclawren vote day2?

And that is just one player. Aside from him, I'll probably be looking at manho and Nero Cain.

These are questions that take time to go and look up. If you want to help, you can do the same to the day2 vote counts (I think there is only like 3 of them), or try to answer these questions. Of course, anything you post will be double-checked, but you can't get to the analysis without the information.

[PeregrineV]

@Magua- So do you disagree with Vezok's argument? Or do you find it invalid? If so, why?

Disagree. I find it much more likely that scum slip with inside information than they are to try to make statements that are obviously false like "Empking was third party."

Also, I think Otolia is town specifically from his D1 play.

For example, you were voting tclawren at some point, but unvoted him. Meanwhile, tclawren voted Sleepy and DavidX, but never EmpKing.

Was your vote RVS, or something else?
Did tclawren mention EmpKing?
Did EmpKing mention tclawren?
Anything relating to tclawren and Stranger?
Where did tclawren vote day2?

Ok, the first question is "Son I am disappoint" because you could've easily looked it up. I voted tclawren because I became sure that my earlier vote (David Xanatos) was town, and tclawren was next on my list for his "3rd party" remark that he had made to SleepyKrew -- it seemed very much like slotting SK as 3rd party rather than scum was a scumslip.

So is this your way of saying mbstokem is scummy? It seems odd that you would present these as deep questions to be answered when tclawren has like 9 posts and mbstokem has 1.

Actually this is my way of saying that I still have work to do to make the colorful post mean anything. I was trying to give an example, but I think you're getting it but trying to make something else out of it. While you are free to do so (that IS why I posted the vote count with color), I have not done so yet.

So, in reference to the above tclawren and Otloia and third party, how do you define a "statement that is obviously false" versus a "scum slip"?

[PeregrineV]

Day 2 voting starts. Posts given after Shinki claim/vote. If two posts after a persons name, the first is the vote, the second the unvote.
12. PeregrineV - Magua(743)
13. StrangerCoug- Shinki(742), McDougall(806), monk(807), MattP(811), Bogre(815), PeregrineV(834), AGar(840)
20. Shinki- McDougall(747)(806), MattP(760)(792), StrangerCoug(795),
23. MacDougall- AGar, Nero Cain, manho(753), EtherealCookie(761), monk(773)(807), MattP(793)(811)

Leads to
Vote count 2.2

12. PeregrineV - Magua(743)
13. StrangerCoug- Shinki(742), McDougall(806), monk(807), MattP(811), Bogre(815), PeregrineV(834), AGar(840), Nero Cain(843), EtherealCookie(846), DavidX(865)
20. Shinki- McDougall(747)(806), MattP(760)(792), StrangerCoug(795), manho(864)
23. MacDougall- manho(753)(864), EtherealCookie(761)(846), monk(773)(807), MattP(793)(811)

Which makes the vote count 2.3 off by manho's vote on Shinki

Votecount 2.3

StrangerCoug

(10)

:

Shinki, MacDougall, monk, MattP, Bogre, PeregrineV, AGar, Nero Cain, EtherealCookie, David Xanatos

MacDougall

(1)

:

AGar

,

Nero Cain

,

manho

,

EtherealCookie

,

monk

,

MattP

Shinki

(1)

:

MacDougall

,

MattP

, StrangerCoug, manho

PeregrineV

(1)

:

Magua

Not Voting

(6)

:

Otolia, whispersilk, tclawren, SodaSpirit17,vezokpiraka, kdowns

Looking at day2 votes as they came in. Shinki received universal support for her claim from everyone except StrangerCoug and manho. Even those who felt she was scummier earlier (MacDougall, MattP) went with her findings.

Additionally, when manho disbelieved Shinki and voted her, it drew these responses:

SC is at L-1 now. i still think shinki is faking the guilty result.

unvote, vote: shinki

inb4 "i only got a tracker/gunsmith/fake result on SC, but his reaction after being "caught" is scummy." by shinki after SC flips town.

if SC flips town, I'm gonna use this post to make a case against you

Manho sure is a bit confident that he's not scum even with a cop claim. We should turn our attention to him if SC does flip town. I'm guessing mafia with a framer on team distancing himself from vote so he can yell "I told you so" if that happens.

So if Stranger flipped town, manho would be suspect, but if he flips scum, manho is free and clear?
I'm not getting that.

Also, Soda posted in the middle, and threw an FoS on MattP instead of even a vote. Not arguing for or against Shinki's result.

Most everyone else not voting or not mentioned I think did not post in that time frame between claim and hammer.

Any addition we have so much information, that lurking without cause is now cause for suspicion.

This was from a day2 re-read. Thoughts/opinions?

[PeregrineV]

Though I know it's very difficult for scum to win a lynched or be lynched situation, I'm reluctant to use it in this situation. I'm not sure it's really useful against MacDougall. Let's see what Magua and Andrius have to say about it.

Concerning the wake-up of SodaSpirit, I don't think you can get anyone to claim right now. It looks very suspicious to ask for claims when yourself is highly suspected. And please don't try to divert the lynch unto vezok, that's just bad.

@PeregrineV : You better start pushing for my lynch or vote someone else, compared to AGar's case, it's weak.

I haven't decided about MacDougall or Soda yet, who look to be leaders for today.

Does AGar have a case on you? I didn't see it.

[PeregrineV]

Unvote.
Vote:Soda

[PeregrineV]

@Andrius- Sure, just as long as it's understood that I still have to agree with the vote choice before I actually vote them. And that I have my eye on some of the members, and null reads on others. As long as that's all clear, I'll join.

@Cookie- I already looked into the Magua thing day2. He posted prior to the result on Stranger. Then, it was a pretty quick lynch after that. I don't hold that against Magua in my read on him, unless you can say you saw him specifically in the thread during that time frame.

Still getting the noob vibe from McDougall. That's one of the reasons I voted Soda yesterday instead of him.

@Nero- you said McDougall has done a lto of scummy things. Like what, and which posts?

regarding Agar- I find his posting style to be somewhat scummy, but he presents his logic clearly, concisely, and consistently. This dichotomy is what keeps my unsure on his alignment.

pedit- sorry, I never took typing (I think it's called keyborading now..lol) so my posts take a while.

[PeregrineV]

@Andrius- also, I got a little excited when I saw your colored vote count. However, it looks somewhat incomplete in terms of missing days and color coding confirmed alignments. Was that a work in progress or something else?

[PeregrineV]

Sorry for weekend absence. Catching up today.

[PeregrineV]

Votecount 5.1

MacDougall

(5)

:

Andrius, AGar,

MattP

,

EtherealCookie

, manho, Nero Cain, kdowns

Andrius

(2)

:

MacDougall

, Magua

Magua

(1)

:

EtherealCookie

Bogre

(1)

:

MacDougall

Not Voting

(3)

:

MattP, Bogre, vezokpiraka

With 12 alive it takes

7

to lynch.

MacDougall stands at

L-2

Deadline for today is

November 10, 2011

That was close, I almost put in a lynch scene. Good thing I reread in detail rather than just lynching him.

@Wraith- I am not listed, and I am not voting.

[PeregrineV]

Can you please lynch me town? I think that Agar is a good town player but for some reason my play is just wrecking his mind and preventing him from scum hunting well. I doubt anyone but me is going to get lynched anyway and the only way the remaining scum will get outed is upon my lynch. Personally I think that manho, bogre and MattP are definitely scum now. The three of them have been absurdly quiet for day 5 and have just allowed the Nero/Agar/Andrius mob to run roughshod over everyone who's dared speak against them. That being said, I'm better off gone, town or not.

no. Agar is right about EC too. I agree with you on Manho. Agar and I agree that you are scum.

Votecount 5.1 Hotfix

MacDougall

(5)

:

Andrius, AGar,

MattP

,

EtherealCookie

, manho, Nero Cain, kdowns

Andrius

(1)

:

MacDougall

, Magua

Magua

(1)

:

EtherealCookie

Bogre

(1)

:

MacDougall

Not Voting

(4)

:

MattP, Bogre, vezokpiraka, PeregrineV

With 12 alive it takes

7

to lynch.

MacDougall stands at

L-2

Deadline for today is

November 10, 2011

Sorry for the bit of an absence, I had a crazy weekend, some of which I don't remember. I made a mistake by not ticking down the counter of votes on Andrius after unvoting MacDougall, and thus forgot about Peregrine when thinking about who wasn't voting. Prods are being sent out to

MattP

,

vezokpiraka

, and

Andrius

.

@Nero- you said no to McDougall about him asking to be lynched, but your still voting him.

@Andrius- I'll go back and look, but I'm not sure the last two days worth of flips were shown. Maybe it was only Soda.

[PeregrineV]

I'm not hammering.

We lynch macdougall now?

Can we lynch macdougall already?
Or do we wait for Agar to come with another suspect that scum want lynched?

L-1 again! I can role reveal again!

I am the Lord of House Morvanus, rulers of the great city of Mos Anor and the lands of Anoria. I am the coolest motherfucker in all the lands and if you lynch me the Beran will cry tears like none before.

So you are the second BP? Now die please.

Vezok- Why are you calling for MacDougall to die yet refusing to vote him?

[PeregrineV]

FAIL.

unvote vote macdougall

I thought I was already voting him. I have no idea how that happened.

You lost track of your vote? And after posting four times to lynch Dougal?

I cannot reconcile any sort of town play with this.

Vote: Vezok

@MacDougall- no reason for town to hammer themselves ever IMO

[PeregrineV]

I'm sorry Agar, are you suggesting that my wanting an Andrius or Magua lynch is dumb shit?

I'm suggesting that going "LOLZ LETS LYNCH THEM INSTEAD" and being generally facetious about the game is dumb shit.

Hey AGar what do you think of EC_NonBlueScum?

I see EC-Scum. I haven't tried to pin him down to a particular faction, I'd just rather kill

all of the scums

.

@TOWN

Ok, let's sit down for a second. We need to fucking focus. This "OMG HE DID X LITTLE MINISCULE THING, VOTE!" shit needs to fucking stop. Now. Think about this. It's Day fucking 5. Not 1. Not 2. 5. We need to be pushing CONCRETE cases against people that can be listed off in a convincing manner. If you want someone lynched, you'd better be fucking pushing a solid case with an actual effort to get that bastard lynched. No more "LOLZ VOTES FOR PRESSURE!!!" Quit the ADD, cut the shit and start playing like you actually plan on fucking winning and not just jumping at every little twitch. Note these things, put them down and point them out, but for the love of god do not just go fucking ADD with your vote. MacDougall should be DEAD by all rights at this point. He's been at L-1 multiple times. He should have been at L-0 and lynched to death. Get your shit together please.

You do realize that this is your primary case on MacDougall? He voted No Lynch at some point day 1, thereby proving himself to be "newbscum instead of just new."

[PeregrineV]

Complete and Total 100% Unfounded Setup Speculation

Take this with a grain of salt.

We have had two anti-town flips - Empking as Terran mafia, and StrangerCoug as House Bremburg. Now there are two possible theories to draw here.

- Night 1, we had 3 kills. SleepyKrew's death was claimed as a 1-shot kill by vigKdowns.
- Night 2, we had 1 kill. David Xanatos was fairly easy to work out as a Beloved Princess, however, and as such could have easily drawn two shots from multiple scumteams.
- Night 3, we have 2 kills. Shinki was an obvious kill as a gunsmith, and monk was obvious as a mason.

Option 1: We are in a two scum, no 3rd party setup. This is the one I feel more likely about, reflecting on the night kills and where they fell. JDGA was a fairly neutral kill, as was gandalf. SKs usually make bold, vocal kills because they want to avoid

all

attention, so as long as their target wasn't onto them - it's a solid choice. This would mean that House Bremburg is a mafia faction (and SC would have been a limited modified Godfather), and the likely numbers (based on common balance) would be 3 mafia left in each faction. 16:4:4 is a fairly balanced way to go for a setup. Worst case scenario for a really bad town, you're in a 6:4:4 pseudo-MYLO after 3 nights of play, assuming you suck at lynching scum, the 1-shot shoots wrong, and both scum factions shoot a different town player every night.

Option 2: We are in a two-scum, 1 SK setup. SC was the SK, by this logic. Tough sell on this is that two of the four killers on Night 1 (1-shot Vig, Terran Mafia, Other Mafia, SK-SC) stacked up their kill. Given the 3 deaths, I find it highly unlikely. I'd still say 15:4:4:1, but maybe 17:3:3:1 depending on how powerful the mafia are.

TL;DR: I'm bored and slightly intrigued by setup possibilities and figured I'd put them out in writing in case anyone actually cared to take an insight.

P-Edit: I'll get to you scum-man.

Votecount 5.1 Hotfix

MacDougall

(5)

:

Andrius, AGar,

MattP

,

EtherealCookie

, manho, Nero Cain, kdowns

Andrius

(1)

:

MacDougall

, Magua

Magua

(1)

:

EtherealCookie

Bogre

(1)

:

MacDougall

Not Voting

(4)

:

MattP, Bogre, vezokpiraka, PeregrineV

With 12 alive it takes

7

to lynch.

Since I keep seeing connections between players that may or may not exist, I want to address the setup again.
Night kills were 3(murdered, murdered, murdered)-1(murdered)-2(murdered, murdered)-2(poisoned, suicide).

At this point, thinking no SK.

Leaving it to be 6:3:3 or 8:2:2. My previous 24 player games with 2 teams, they were both teams of 4.

Can someone convince me that the current playerlist is NOT half town and half scum?

[PeregrineV]

blue bold-So what do YOU think? Pere said he has played in a game with two scum factions that were 4 apiece. I think I played in a game with similar stats. So what do you think the scum sizes are? 2 apiece? 3? 4?

It's annoying that nobody addresses this until now. In our small player list remaining, up to half could be scum, but that doesn't seem to matter to anyone. But I guess I would expect 50% of the people to not address it.

3. Bogre - Much like Vezok he hasn't done much scum hunting. He has chimed in every now and then to say not much. The little he has said strikes me as him just posting what he feels are townish things. He has only really voted as part of a wagon despite posting enough material to have made his own cases on the likes of myself or manho.

4. Vezok - A VI isn't always town. He has done nothing at all to help scum hunt and his play in general, while being VI, has read scum. I wouldn't like to lynch him based just on this though, hence why he is #4.

Interesting. Explain why these two are in this order.

So, no defense or questions or arguments, you want to know why you are #4 on the list? Are you upset you are that high or that low? You seem to not question his reads, and instead want to know more about you in the list. This generally equates to the "Do you find me scummy?" question, which is generally not asked by town.

Let's see if I can find my vote, and place it on Vezok...
Not over here....
Or over here...
Oh, there it is, already on you.

Pfft surely you can give us a brief example. How about you elaborate on the one you just suggested? That would be easy! I didn't ask for a case, I asked for some quotes. Why you fail to do this is confusing.

Why would I need to "transition things smoothly"? That would imply that I am selecting my words over cautiously and trying not to trap myself. Which would be a scum thing to do. So you're saying that because I'm not behaving scummily that I'm being coached and am scum? Because I am being boisterous, "ADD" as you say, I am being coached and am scum? I find that the loud, pig headed players are generally town, which is why I have a town read on you.

Why do you not entertain the idea that you are wrong on this? You have been adamant the entire time and have given me no quarter once. Just TRY to have a town read on me. Read my ISO as though you WANT me to be town. You'll make a stronger case to yourself than the one you currently have I assure you. I did just have a look at your ISO in the Upick game and noticed that you used a suicide bomber kill on a townie. So it's not like you're showing great form at the moment. Be at the head of my lynch mob and soon you're gonna start to develop a reputation...

Let's go with your posting content this day;

Starts off voting Andrius for "WoT" and some other shit. Transitions hard to defending hard against me, almost completely dropping your pursuit of an Andrius lynch, instead posting "I'd have killed AGar!" But suddenly, that line of thought just stops. Not progresses or regresses. Just stops. After that you move to "Lol I'm at L-1, just lynch me!" But then that just stops with a hard jolt. Then after the whole "Lol I'm dead, no wait no I'm not" thing, it's "Well AGar and Andrius... they're scum!" But literally your next post (with no posts from me or Andrius between them) says we're both town. Looks like someone checked into the QT, huh? Back to "Ok, I'm going to die, just let it happen." after that, and then back off of that wagon again. After a few more weak tosses at me, you move to MattP "because I wasn't around" even though it logically follows no progression.

No one else really sees this? Am I really alone here?

Maybe I'm stark raving mad, but I'm damn sure that MacDougall is scum.

Also, I really don't give a fuck about my reputation here.

P-Edit: I'd support EC. Not whole-heartedly, but I can agree to it.

It's just that most of his antics are very common to new players, before they get jaded.

I'll vote McDougall to avoid a no lynch, since even just randomly voting I'm 60% likely to hit town.
But, if we can lynch Vezok before then, that'd be great too.

I'm here ... Don't Kill me Wraith

As the "one-shot vig", which semi-confirms you as town, your comprehensive input at this time would be very greatly appreciated. What are your thoughts, questions, comments on the the remaining 11 players and the possible setup?

@Andrius- Don't disappear on us now.

[PeregrineV]

PeregrineV, opinions on MacDougall and Andrius pl0x.

I feel that MacDougall is playing like a newbie plays. I've been there, and done things the way he has (and stilldo sometimes).

Andrius I was liking for town early on. I know he's been busy IRL, so I would like for him to come in and address his votes/voters.

And if people voting, or not voting, can please express why they are voting a particular person, that will make it easier to find the trash. For some it is obvious, as they have stated their case often (AGar), but others, not so much (kdowns).

My Vezok reason is his post 1256 and post 1326, neither of which were town motivated posts.

[PeregrineV]

PeregrineV - Surprisingly, I don't have much to say for this. You were "solid," I guess - lurking enough to prevent attention being drawn to you, but posting enough to prevent being lynched. I'm sure your flip surprised some.

Thanks for the feedback. Once EmpKing died, I pretty much didn't care who got lynched. All I had to do was avoid lynching Bogre. So, it was kind of fun scumhunting without actually being town.

Thank you for modding this. I liked the setup with double traitors and enabling and esp. the flavor.

Definitely would like in on the next one!