Open 321: Kc's FIRE and ICE: Game over.


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Post Post #1025 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2011 8:33 pm

Post by killerjester »

Nah your case is pretty scummy. From the part where you said JPop put VE at L-1 (she didn't), to leaving out the parts where VE defends not only JPop, but also Reab pretty hard in the first day. You also say the ice scum presumably got the idea of no-killing after CSL died but the night after his lynch there was a cross kill, indicating the ice scum did in fact submit a kill. His response to your case was fairly decent but you ignore it and vote him anyway.

VOTE: Cirno

The problem is no one was directing the ice mafia to kill him. I was directing the fire mafia to kill him. If he was fire mafia he probably wouldn't have been worried at all. He probably would've said nothing and hoped the ice mafia forgot about him.

To everyone Not-Krazy, VE doesn't make much sense as a partner with Krazy or Klazam, so I guess if he even was ice scum his partner would have to be Cirno. So why is lynching Cirno the safer choice? Because..

A. I've suggested why Cirno is not likely to be Reab's partner. He's most likely not fire mafia
B. Krazy is scummily pushing the VE wagon over Cirno, this
could
suggest a Krazy/Cirno scumteam that wants VE dead to win the game here as opposed to having to bus each other and take their chances in endgame
C. You don't have to outright agree with me on Point B, just understand it's a possibility. But whichever ice-team you see as more likely, VE/Cirno or Krazy/Cirno I think the common denominator is pretty obvious here
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Post Post #1026 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:32 pm

Post by Krazy »

So you're saying that VE CAN be Fire Maf? Ignoring my mistake with MJP's vote d1, you're saying that VE bussed Reab yesterday over you? Second, are you saying that a scum VE would defend 'pretty hard' his partner on d1?

As for the crosskill after CSL's death:
a) We don't actually know it was a cross-kill that night; it actually could have been a doc save + no kill.
b) If there was a cross-kill when CSL died, it doesn't change the appeal of a no-kill the night after.

Which parts of his response were decent? Most of what I saw was "no" with very little in the way of substantive reasons. Your response for him here actually is more provocative. You seem to be pretty clearly defending VE and pushing Cirno over him, when really I see no reason at all that Cirno can't be fire mafia. His post at the end of yesterday was a flippant response to people directing a night kill at him, I don't see how that suggests alignment in any way whatsoever, and your attempt to suggest it does is at this point scummy (but hey, KJ being scummy, that's nothing new--now it's just scummy in an Ice Maf way).

I'm starting to wonder if I was mistaken on a VE/Klazam or VE/Cirno scumteam and we're not looking at VE/KJ going for a lynch on fire mafia in Cirno. Going to have to think about these developments.
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Post Post #1027 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:47 pm

Post by killerjester »

In post 1026, Krazy wrote:I'm starting to wonder if I was mistaken on a VE/Klazam or VE/Cirno scumteam and we're not looking at VE/KJ going for a lynch on fire mafia in Cirno. Going to have to think about these developments.

That's a mighty strong chainsaw you're wielding there.

And it contradicts some main points in your case. A VE/KJ ice-team would NOT have seen much value in no-killing and simply
hoping
that DX saves VE. He also was not "dancing around" with a read on me. In fact, he went from a townread on me to voting me to the death (L-1 at the time). There's no reason for that when Cirno opened up a perfectly good wagon on Reab.

WOAH.

Just noticed something. VE/Cirno is unlikely. They would've hammered me for sure back on D4. VE makes absolutely no sense as being on a scumteam with anyone anymore. I hope everyone can see Krazy's scummily mixing up his reads to attack me when I'm completely right about lynching Cirno today.
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Post Post #1028 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:58 pm

Post by Krazy »

I know you being on VE's scumteam complicates my case, but it's not impossible, only unlikely. I suppose a VE/Cirno scumteam is still possible if you're just really, really tunneling town, and Klazam is the fire maf, or if you are the fire maf, it's VE/Klazam, and Cirno is VT, or whatever. As for the no-kill night, that could have been for a couple of reasons, and I think you're now trying to play it up as much as possible.

As for a Cirno/VE scumteam being impossible because of D4... uhm, no it's not. They might have hammered you or they might have hammered the person that actually got hammered, in any case either way it wasn't on them now was it?

You're either going back into tunnelvision or you're getting desperate, KJ. Either way this "VE/Cirno is impossible!" is weaksauce.

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Post Post #1029 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2011 10:07 pm

Post by killerjester »

VE/Klazam doesn't make much sense. Even if VE/Cirno isn't impossible, Cirno is the best lynch for today.

VE/KJ doesn't simply "complicate" your case. It's not simply "unlikely". There's honestly no reason why ANY ice team with me on it would think that no-killing is the best strategy. If you even want to think about selling the idea of me being ice mafia, then you'd have to say my "partner" is either Klazam aka LOLNO or Cirno, making Cirno STILL the best lynch for today.

You just don't wanna accept it cos he's your ice partner.
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Post Post #1030 (ISO) » Thu Sep 29, 2011 11:26 pm

Post by David Xanatos »

I am actually here. I'm just seeing where these debates are going so I can make a reasoned vote.

Better to watch in this situation and absorb as much information and analyse as much as possible.
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Post Post #1031 (ISO) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 3:46 am

Post by Klazam »

on one hand- KJ and VE defends each other throughout the game,

On the other- that failed kill on VE....

I'm gonna say that VE is not ice by virtue of that failkill. A no kill is extremely unlikely, given that there was a truly small chance of DX protecting Ice Scum, which is the only case in which benefits the ice scum.

This leaves me with a 2/3 chance of finding the ice scum.

Krazy-KJ seems impossible
KJ-Cirno seems impossible
Cirno-Krazy is the only ice scum pairing that makes sense here.

HM.
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Post Post #1032 (ISO) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 3:47 am

Post by Klazam »

Hold on. may have made a mistake there. FACTCHECKING
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Post Post #1033 (ISO) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 3:48 am

Post by Klazam »

nope, no mistake.
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Post Post #1034 (ISO) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 4:18 am

Post by Klazam »

Hmm. just had a thought, did you (DX) hint towards your possible protect of VE in any way?
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Post Post #1035 (ISO) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 7:08 am

Post by killerjester »

In post 1031, Klazam wrote:Cirno-Krazy is the only ice scum pairing that makes sense here.

*slow clap rising into a standing ovation*

Now all we need is VE's support and DavidX's consent to hammer and our 4 votes will overrule their team of 2.
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Post Post #1036 (ISO) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 8:19 am

Post by Krazy »

Hmm, not sure whether it's fire maf siding with the ice maf here or just a confused VT.

David, I'm really starting to wonder about the possibilities of teams no-killing earlier in the game combined with doc saves, did you say who you saved the two nights there were no-kills at all?
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Post Post #1037 (ISO) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 8:41 am

Post by VisceraEyes »

My support is already on Cirno. My vote is all I can offer.
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Post Post #1038 (ISO) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 8:45 am

Post by killerjester »

In post 1036, Krazy wrote:Hmm, not sure whether it's fire maf siding with the ice maf here

LOL DID YOU REALLY JUST SUGGEST THIS

The last VT wants to lynch ice. Even the fire mafia wants to lynch the ice scum today.

Anyway let's pretend you're fire mafia. Or, better yet, let's say for all intensive purposes that you're the other VT. Why are you
so
damn convinced Cirno is not ice scum?

Your entire KJ/VE case falls apart unless you honestly believe VE assumed that DavidX would save just him, as he openly stated that I was not going to be saved at all. In the absence of that, the ice mafia targeted VE that night ergo VE is not ice mafia.
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Post Post #1039 (ISO) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 8:56 am

Post by Krazy »

Sorry I forgot to include my sarcasm tags on the comment above.

In post 1038, killerjester wrote:
Anyway let's pretend you're fire mafia. Or, better yet, let's say for all intensive purposes that you're the other VT. Why are you
so
damn convinced Cirno is not ice scum?

Your entire KJ/VE case falls apart unless you honestly believe VE assumed that DavidX would save just him, as he openly stated that I was not going to be saved at all. In the absence of that, the ice mafia targeted VE that night ergo VE is not ice mafia.


I'm convinced Cirno is not Ice Scum because I don't see who his partner is, with the way you and VE are pushing on him non-stop, that gives me the impression that you both have an agenda to lynch him over anyone else for reasons I don't understand which I take to be scummy. Seriously, Klazam claimed scum yesterday, and yet you are fully convinced that Cirno is Ice Maf because he made a flippant post in response to random BS. When I read the thread I see all four of you as scum and I can't actually figure out who the other damn VT is. All I can say is I don't think everyone would be coming down so uniformly on Cirno if he really was Ice Maf. Not in the game where VTs were lynched a million days in a row. Sorry. Klazam is scummy (read: claimed scum) but he could be fire maf. Cirno is scummy but he could be fire maf, especially with the way you and VE are pushing on him so damn hard. You've been scummy the whole damn game. The only person here I don't think is Ice Maf is the one you and VE seem 100% convinced cannot possibly be Ice Maf due to a presumed doc save. Honestly I don't care what the reasons are, for all I know he forgot to send in the stupid night kill, but 'doc save' be damned, VE is Ice Maf, and there's no way I'm backing down on that in a game-ending situation if Cirno turns out to be Fire Maf.
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Post Post #1040 (ISO) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 8:57 am

Post by Krazy »

I cannot type today. EBWOP "I do think is" rather than "I don't think is." TOO MANY MAF.
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Post Post #1041 (ISO) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 8:59 am

Post by Krazy »

In post 1031, Klazam wrote:on one hand- KJ and VE defends each other throughout the game,

On the other- that failed kill on VE....

I'm gonna say that VE is not ice by virtue of that failkill. A no kill is extremely unlikely, given that there was a truly small chance of DX protecting Ice Scum, which is the only case in which benefits the ice scum.

This leaves me with a 2/3 chance of finding the ice scum.

Krazy-KJ seems impossible
KJ-Cirno seems impossible
Cirno-Krazy is the only ice scum pairing that makes sense here.

HM.


This reasoning is exactly why a no-kill makes sense, by the way.
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Post Post #1042 (ISO) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 9:01 am

Post by Krazy »

In post 1037, VisceraEyes wrote:Hurry up and lynch the fire maf so I can seal the deal.


ftfy.
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Post Post #1043 (ISO) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 10:10 am

Post by killerjester »

So... a no-kill KJ/VE team makes sense because it's unlikely.

Using the same logic it'd make sense for me to win the lottery today.
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Post Post #1044 (ISO) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 11:19 am

Post by Krazy »

In post 1043, killerjester wrote:So... a no-kill KJ/VE team makes sense because it's unlikely.


YES.

FOCUS GUYS.

FOCUS.
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Post Post #1045 (ISO) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 11:36 am

Post by killerjester »

I think we can all see how senseless your case is now.

Klazam and DX, is there anything else I can clear up? I feel like I've exhausted this back-and-forth and I'm ready for your input.
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Post Post #1046 (ISO) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 6:40 pm

Post by Klazam »

Krazy- Do you think KJ is scum? If so, WHY?

I'm not ready to end the day just yet.
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Post Post #1047 (ISO) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 6:42 pm

Post by Klazam »

RE: KJ/VE- And IF they nokilled and DX targeted somebody else, it would have backfired. This is why i want to know if DX ever tried to hint that he would protect VE. This would clear things up, I believe.
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Post Post #1048 (ISO) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 6:58 pm

Post by Krazy »

In post 1047, Klazam wrote:RE: KJ/VE- And IF they nokilled and DX targeted somebody else, it would have backfired. This is why i want to know if DX ever tried to hint that he would protect VE. This would clear things up, I believe.


Define backfire--in this setup, if they no-killed, that would also mean there was no risk of them 'doccing' a player in a cross-kill with the other team. In a no-kill, they would be giving the doctor a chance to save them, and also giving the opposing faction less information, which might be just as good.

You don't find it suspicious at all that there was a 'doc save' or a 'cross-kill' almost every single day?

In post 1046, Klazam wrote:Krazy- Do you think KJ is scum? If so, WHY?


The way KJ is siding with VE and pushing on Cirno over you has me very concerned; he's offering reasons that he thinks Cirno can't be fire mafia for reasons that I quite frankly think are ridiculous. That being said, his reads this game have been wildly erratic, and he could be simply tunneling town. Or he could be on to something and Cirno really could be Ice Mafia with VE.

As it is, I think his reasons for voting Cirno are terrible, and it certainly isn't impossible that he's Ice Mafia with VE. He is trying really hard to push this wagon on Cirno that I find concerning, and the way he's doing it has me wondering if there isn't an agenda behind it. He may very well want the lynch today to 'appear obvious' so that he can go for a game-ending win. But it's not like it's impossible he isn't just a really stubborn/reactionary VT. He also seems to really want to present the idea of a KJ/VE team as ludicrous, when he's really just using the mysterious 'save' on VE as the only reason that's unlikely, which I am starting to take to be scummy.
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Post Post #1049 (ISO) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 7:42 pm

Post by killerjester »

What's scummy is you defending Cirno so hard as to chainsaw me. There's no way you can be that confident. What's even more alarming is your main reasoning to defend him is that the unlikely KJ/VE possibility is attacking Cirno.

I'm "tunneling" because at this point it's obvious to me. I'm not scum, DavidX isn't scum, VE seems all too eager to lynch Cirno, you're defending him hard, Klazam is being ever-so-cautious and Cirno himself is lurking.

So I took the premise, "Maybe Cirno isn't ice scum. Who's the ice team in this case?" It can't be Krazy/Klazam, as they surely would've hammered by this point. Both players have had ample opportunity. I think VE/Krazy is unlikely because of the severe contrast in agenda today. And VE/Klazam didn't make much sense either, because I feel VE came out too strong at the beginning of D5 attacking Klazam. There's also some WIFOM I sprinkled into the equation here such as, "A VE/Klazam ice team didn't have much incentive to kill Empking."

After I cleared the former premise as false in my mind, it's all really quite simple. Cirno must be ice scum because there isn't a valid pairing that doesn't include him. His partner probably isn't VE, as I feel VE abandoned the Klazam lynch rather easily and jumped towards Cirno instead. Between Krazy and Klazam, Krazy makes perfect sense as Cirno's partner. He has for the entire game. From the light distancing D1, to the killing of Empking after he called their scumteam early on in the game, to the avoidance of each other in - I kid you not - every single vote count in the game, and finally to this incredibly contrived defense on Cirno. Also Klazam is kind of.. too skirtish to be Cirno's partner.

Here's how I paint the rest of the roles and how it makes sense with each player's agenda today.

- Cirno is ice scum and has completely flaked site-wide. Doesn't really have an agenda I suppose.
- Krazy is ice partner, he's defending Cirno really hard for relatively weak reasons. It had the feel of scum trying to prevent his partner from being lynched when victory is
oh-so-damn-close
, all he had to do was to speak up about how the lack of N3 ice kill doesn't 100% clear VE from being ice. And say it enough times to make it true (as if that would make it any more likely)
- VE is fire scum, and wants to get the day over as quickly as possible with an ice lynch.
- Klazam is legitimately cautious, and doesn't know where to place his trust. He reads completely as a townie that doesn't want to make the wrong decision.
- DavidX is watching from afar on his confirmed-town stool, trying to read the players so he knows who to lynch and who to put his next doc save on.

At least that's how my logic went. You can still call me tunneling town (aww what's wrong? too scared to outright call me scum?), but I think I've expressed why I can be so confident that Cirno is the best lynch today.
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