Open 321: Kc's FIRE and ICE: Game over.

[VisceraEyes]

Define define. By break I meant don't buy into Krazy's nonsense based on my attempt at humor.

[killerjester]

Cirno, did you ever speculate on the no-kill night where David said he protected VE?

[Klazam]

vote: killerjester

I give up trying to analyze this game based on logic. Why killer? Gut, and his reaction to my gambit.

If killer isnt Ice, then good job scum...........

I'm happy to lynch Killerjester. So let's get this over with.

[killerjester]

I'm not. Fucking. Ice.

I reacted to your gambit to keep the doctor alive.

Why are you throwing logic out the window?

[Krazy]

I'm not. Fucking. Ice.

I reacted to your gambit to keep the doctor alive.

Why are you throwing logic out the window?

Because he's Ice Maf with VE, he senses that David is starting to put pressure on VE, so he has to save his scumbuddy VE by pushing David back on to his earlier preferred lynch, aka you.

This shit is textbook.

[killerjester]

That doesn't. What even.

David isn't putting pressure on VE.

I'm willing to rule out Krazy/VE though. Where does that leave us?

[Kcdaspot]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 4

killerjester

- 2 - Cirno, Klazam - (L-2)

Klazam

- 1 - Krazy - (L-3)

Krazy

- 1 - ViscaraEyes - (L-3)

Players not voting: David Xanthos, killerjester

Deadline is October the 20th 2011, 8:00pm Central time.

(expired on 2011-10-20 20:00:00)

Klazam's vote is the only reason i'm posting this..

Where is David? checking for prod.

[Kcdaspot]

Meh no one's in prod range, by far.

srsly thoo. 8 days people.

[Klazam]

This game is a joke, honestly.

Name several specific reasons why you think i am ice, Krazy.

Killer- If you were just reacting to my gambit, why did you explictly choose to act the part of the two scum team, when it would be obvious that reab's real partner would not have claimed- It'd have been a bad idea.

ALSO- VE, you mentioned that KJ does gambits as a part of his meta, would you point this out, please? LINKS!

I'm really torn between the possiblity of the KJ-VE scumteam, which would make 110% sense and about the nokill, which.... bah.

[killerjester]

I didn't know which scum you were, but I thought claiming as not-Reab's-partner would make me seem more like the powerful bully who does whatever he wants to hope that you would shoot me out of hate/spite.

And about my gambitting meta. Yea, I like to gambit a lot. And I can link you to games that I've gambitted in, http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... =2&t=18910 in this one I lied about a read to coax scum into killing Beck, my "town read", so that I could enter LyLo with saulres alive and better chances of winning. We just won that, by the way. I was VT. But take it with an ounce of.. whatever, because I don't have scum meta on this site yet

Drench has an ongoing minitheme that I [REDACTED] in, and I won't really discuss it at length since that's illegal but you can go look for yourself. I've already flipped in that game.

I don't know which game VE is talking about, though. I'm sure I was town in it because, again, I've had one game as a serial killer and no games as scum.

[Klazam]

Killer- Dont answer questions not intended for you.

I still want VE to answer that.

Killer- if i was claiming, chances are that i should be ice scum- which would have me laughing at your idiotic gambit. Instead you choose to disregard the odds and bet that i was actually reab's scummate, which i do not get. Why would i hammer my own scummate and claim?

[killerjester]

Well if you were ice scum and laughing at me then I would've caught an ice scum, now wouldn't I?

And I really didn't answer anything VE had knowledge of.

[Klazam]

Illogic.

If i was Ice, I would have known that you were bullshitting, so i would not have even shot you, which defeats the purpose of your gambit.

[Klazam]

The chance of me being ice was sigfigicantly higher than me being fire, so when you claimed ice, you chose the claim with less odds of working, which leads me to believe that you were actually not gambiting.

[Krazy]

Klazam, what it comes down to is, I'm fairly certain that VE is Ice Mafia, but a lot of people seem vehemently opposed to lynching him, so I'm left with trying to find his partner, either one of whom I'm slightly less certain of. Of the available candidates after VE, you're my best bet for his partner.

There's nothing in either of your Isos that really says "no way these two are partners" and, partly, I find a pairing of you two elegant because despite how active both of you have been, very little of your interaction has been directed at each other. Also your play today, letting VE push on various wagons while you sort of camp could make sense; basically, like before, you're waiting to control the hammer. I can see you doing this as scum.

I guess a big part of it comes down to why we would see VE's team no-killing the night that TF was lynched and we woke to Smarg's death.

So basically we have a 6-day period here, from Sep. 15-21.

The scenario that is the easiest to believe is that VE intentionally no-killed because he believed that either he or himself would be docced and be 'set' for the rest of the game. As far as this goes, you + VE makes the most sense since I can see David doccing either one of you that night, whereas it's harder to see that for KJ.

However, that's only the most likely scenario.

There's the slightly less likely scenario where VE's team intentionally no-killed, but were not counting on a doc save, but rather on the WIFOM produced from a no-kill. Since they might have saw it as a good night to do it, considering how many cross-kills there had been. In this scenario, pretty much any scum-team is imaginable, since KJ was unlikely to be night-killed, and VE wasn't unlikely to be docced, so really they in this regard would not strictly speaking need to count on KJ as a candidate for the doc save. Still, with a second scum-team out there, I'm sort of resistant to support this read.

However, if we open up the possibility of an UNINTENTIONAL no-kill, then KJ + VE might conceivably become my preferred team (would need to think about this more).

Unintentional night-kills aren't unheard of; after all, town can unintentionally no-lynch if a timer runs out. They happen in marathon games at least. All that really is required is that, for whatever reason (out of town, arguing with their scumbuddy, simple forgetfulness) they failed to send in the nightkill. Hey, considering how KC kept delaying breaking day, it's possible the mod was 'waiting' or whatever for the scum to make up their mind. But this is all conjecture. All that it comes down to is imagining that the scum, for whatever reason, didn't really mean to no-kill.

Again, in this scenario, I could imagine either a VE + KJ or a VE + Klazam scumteam.

So if I ignore the differing probabilities of the different scenarios, then both of you almost equally likely candidates for being his partner. But, if I'm ignoring the differing probabilities, and just putting the no-kill and whatever reason it happened out of my mind, then it only makes sense to go back to voting VE.

The thing is I'm not entirely sure I can do that, and as I said, I just see no reason that you can't be VE's partner, or for that matter, Cirno or KJ's. There's literally no one in this game that, off-hand, I would be willing to axiomatically rule out as you being scum with. So you make a lot of sense as today's lynch, even though, individually, you're not as scummy as VE is (obviously).

[killerjester]

So Klazam. What you're saying is that I, as ice scum, claimed ice scum?

Honestly, even if you

do

think I'm scum, it makes more sense for me to be fire scum gambitting, claiming ice and acting like an idiot town gambitting to make sure I'm not shot by the real ice.

Why you reached the conclusion that I'm ice is beyond me.

[killerjester]

Wait. Are you

actually

fire? That would sorta make a lot of sense.

[Klazam]

Yeah, I'm saying that you fell for my gambit and incidentally claimed ice scum.

Are you claiming fire scum? On second thought, why the hell would you claim ice in that situation?

Sadly, no. I'm not fire. Why do you think that if i was, things would make sense?

[Klazam]

Krazy- your post is full of logic, but you're dead set on pairing me and VE... What makes me scummy individually? What you said in the end section is pretty much true. Everyone can be scum with everyone else (other than DX). I do not see how I'm exceptional in that regard.

[Klazam]

I do think that VE is scum, though. Fire scum. (Although i'm now full of self-doubt about the possiblity of a KJ-VE scumpair)

VE's play has been amazingly scummy this game.

[killerjester]

Yeah, I'm saying that you fell for my gambit and incidentally claimed ice scum.

Are you claiming fire scum? On second thought, why the hell would you claim ice in that situation?

Sadly, no. I'm not fire. Why do you think that if i was, things would make sense?

1. Waitaminute. #943 didn't feel like you were gambitting to catch scum. What were you doing there?

2. I'm not fire scum. The first line of #1159 is why I would claim not-Reab's-partner. To presumably anger you into shooting me instead of David.

3. SO many things would make sense. It would mean your gambit wasn't a gambit at all, and you really did want to shoot David. You would've backed down after my intent to night-kill you, claiming it was a gambit and hoping that I believe you. Your skepticism about who is ice mafia today definitely seems to come from someone who isn't ice. Aaaand you didn't consider the possibility I was fire scum because

you

are the fire scum.

I think I remember why #943 felt like it came from the perspective of Reab's partner. You weren't worried about your partner getting shot. I believe if you were the ice you would've directed Reab's partner to shoot David while you shoot a random player. This whole game makes so much sense when Klazam isn't ice scum. Sooooo I'm guessing he probably isn't.

Can we lynch Krazy or Cirno now?

[Klazam]

The original intent of my gambit was to try and either draw both kills, or to hope to shunt both kills on somebody else, and to protect DX. I was never excepting any scum to respond to my post- and recall that it was a hammer post- which meant i thought kcda would have closed the thread quickly. what i didnt anticipate was for scum to claim and i also didnt anticipate an whole twilight duel (which was fun, though).

The gambit ended up with an side effect of catching scum. Or so i thought.

Both of you(KJ) and Krazy really sound very convincing at times. Cirno-VE anybody? I'm looking at that possibility now.

unvote

I'm going to bed.

[killerjester]

My two cents is Cirno-VE would've hammered me D4. There really wasn't a need for Cirno to turn the wagon around and attack Reab instead.

But Cirno still makes a good lynch today. Him or Krazy.

[Klazam]

Cirno-VE doesnt make sense after all... So one of you two HAS to be ice scum... which one? IF either of you would be willing to confess, it'd make my life easier....

[VisceraEyes]

I'm not scum, and as long as that's the general consensus in town, I'm not cooperating either. Krazy is scum, a vote for Krazy is a vote for town victory.