Mini 1252 - My Not So Humble Abode - Game Over

[Johman]

No bus drivers in Normals.

And why would we policy lynch the vig if Robin was a vig kill? Robin was no more than null for me and IIRC a couple of guys had him as a scumread.

~J

[Sir Bastion]

Right...first things first. Smart mafia is smart. Leaving both me and rainbow alive means the Draken debate will persist. So Draken gets a reprive from me badgering him. On the condition that gets his act together. If he continues scummy behavior then RB I don't give 2 f*VHS about your gut I will push shove kick and bite until he is lynched.

That aside important points

-2birds why did you quickhammer? In Case you missed it we'd cleared that I was going to hammer just before the deadline and there was growing doubt in tsg being scum. Yet you hammered because you said we were at risk of a NL. But we were not I was standing by and there was still issues being discussed. Clearly you are not following this thread!

-but it does feel like a smart mafia as killing edgerobin further paints you scummy as you were the only poster crossing blades with him couple that with you quickhammering and it looks like either really really dumb mafia or one trying to get us to lynch you.


So your answer to point 1 will explain which it is for point 2.


GO!

(btw I'm happy to be alive)

[Palmar]

Hey team!

Now that you've successfully lynched a townie despite me telling you he's town, how about we lynch scum today?

Vote: Johman

[Rainbowdash]

*squee*

Plan worked better than expected.

Going to reread three or four ponies sometime today and lay a whole lot of stuff out.

[weirdbeard]

I want to hear 2bird's answers to SB's questions. I've got a few thoughts regarding him.

I'd love to know what your plan was, by the way, RBD. So far as I see it, you've outed yourself as a PR to lynch one useless townie, over someone else who, at best, appears to be another useless townie.

[Shinki]

Edgerobin was a strong town-read for me right after Sir Bastion and Rainbow... they didn't killed one of the two major spotlights, but a third one not so bright... that's interesting.
I'll give this thread a reread and see if I think of something

[Sir Bastion]

@WB the key is the or he outed himself as.

[weirdbeard]

@WB the key is the or he outed himself as.

What?

[Sir Bastion]

Think like scum when that pr comes it should be fairly straight forward why RB is still alive if she's town.

[weirdbeard]

Oh, 'the key' is a role? I'm unaware of it. Can't find it in the wiki either.

[weirdbeard]

Oh actually, nevermind. I see what you're getting at now. Your post was just horribly garbled and fried my brain.

[Beck]

so which one of Draken or 2b1s was the counter wagon?

One of those 2 are probably scum.

[Scumhunter]

Ehhhhh, Wellp. Fuck.

@2birds, I'd say policy lynching anything or gathering suspects today just based on a lynch wagon yesterday is bad news bears. I'd keeper more of an open mind as to who could be scum really. Why are Beck/shinki/bvoigt "above the line for you"

@Beck, I don't really buy into the one of the counterwagons had to be on scum theory. There are times when multiple wagons are town and times when multiple wagons are scum. I wouldn't read too much into stuff like that.

@SirB, why do you say 2birds "quick hammered". It was 33 pages in and what less than a day to deadline?? I don't see that as a quickhammer whatsoever, plus what difference does it make if you are the one hammering or he is? I find that whole accusation pretty odd to be honest and defenitely could be scumbuddies distancing. Not saying it is, just it seemed odd to me.

Sorry TSGR

[Beck]

So we had 2 legit candidates day 1, and 1 possible 3rd, how likely all 3 are town?

We know 1 was

[Rainbowdash]

I'd love to know what your plan was, by the way, RBD. So far as I see it, you've outed yourself as a PR to lynch one useless townie, over someone else who, at best, appears to be another useless townie.

You will know when I flip (maybe), when the game is over or we massclaim.

Until then, lips are sealed.

Im down to a couple ponies to choose from.

2B1S is mixed telling all over the place out the gate, the opening question from bvoigt is horrible, Johman seems far to sure that the kill was from scum for what he knows, wierd is WIFOM.

Eh.

[Thomith]

Votecount 2.2

2birds1stone (0)
Rainbowdash (0)
Beck (0)
Johman (1) Palmar,
bvoigt (0)
Draken (0)
Sir Bastion (0)
weirdbeard (0)
Scumhunter (0)
Shinki (0)
Palmar (0)

Not Voting (10) 2birds1stone, Rainbowdash, Johman, bvoigt, Draken, Sir Bastion, weirdbeard, Scumhunter, Shinki, Beck

With 11 Alive it takes 6 to lynch.

V/LA's:
None

Replacing:
None

Prodding:
None

Day 2 Deadline 8th November 2011

[weirdbeard]

I'd love to know what your plan was, by the way, RBD. So far as I see it, you've outed yourself as a PR to lynch one useless townie, over someone else who, at best, appears to be another useless townie.

You will know when I flip (maybe), when the game is over or we massclaim.

Until then, lips are sealed.

Im down to a couple ponies to choose from.

2B1S is mixed telling all over the place out the gate, the opening question from bvoigt is horrible, Johman seems far to sure that the kill was from scum for what he knows, wierd is WIFOM.

Eh.

It's 'weird'. Agree with you mostly so far, but I don't get what you mean by me being WIFOM? Please elaborate.

Also, I'm gonna re-read. I think we should open up other players to scrutiny beyond those in the wagon. I'm honestly a lot more nervous about our 'neutrals' so far, the players who have avoided scum-hunting, than the players who have. That, to me, puts the FOS on Draken, Shinki (Protector) and Johman. I will be re-reading into them all shortly.

[weirdbeard]

Possibly bvoigt too. I'll do a full re-read. I might have missed some more odd looking players, they're just the ones who come to mind first.

[Johman]

Johman seems far to sure that the kill was from scum for what he knows

Well, I'm like 80% sure that it was a scumkill. Do you really think it looks like a vig kill? A vig would go after both 2b1s, Draken, possibly even me and Palmar, before he vigged Robin.

~J

[Beck]

Wiki advises shooting Lurkers. But why are we assuming vig with only 1 kill. Setup speculation on 1 NK?

[weirdbeard]

Edgerobin does seem like a scum-target. I'm guessing he's either been picked off by mafia or a serial killer.

[Draken]

Rainbow, Vig or mafia kill, what do you think?
If you think Mafia kill I'm inclined to agree, but I don't entirely see why edge was killed...
All I can think is, after deciding not to lynch any of the high-profiles cause they might potentially and unwittingly 'help' scum, they picked the top of the list of left-overs.

[Rainbowdash]

So im a little torn right here

I think that Draken and SB are town, and thats around where those reads end really.

Im going back and forth between 2B1S and Wierd right now. I actually think both of those ponies could easily be scum, as I have said they work together very cleanly, and I dont really think they would have not killed me given how up I was on the two of them, mixed with the fact that I claimed a PR. Then again I had a recent game where through what I said scum concluded I was an elite bodyguard or something and that caused a wierd kill, so its not out of the question, but I see it as unlikely unless they called me as a PGO.

For wierd being WIFOM, its basically me being alive. I figured one of three things were going to happen last night. Either I would die, scum would take the gamble that there was nothing protective and take a shot at SB, or bvoigt would die. Anything less I was going to be thrilled with because my reads were scattered, I had a whole lot of distrust in Edgar still, and for everypony talking about vigging targets, they would have been on a list where I considered a shot but wouldnt have taken it in the end. Hence the *squee*, somepony I was uncomfortable with is now confirmed town.

On that note, if a vig killed edgar, they should claim. It means a town something saved another town role, and with the vig thats three cleared, following which a massclaim should quickly finish off the game for us. So yeah, whoever made that kill claim it please. Should give us four to five cleared ponies.

Havent quite decided where im going yet. Will probably be one of 2B1S or wierd.

[Draken]

Sorry thoughts on other things, I should post them too.

Bastion, I agree with you that 2bird's vote seemed a bit sudden.

I'd also like to consider Draken due to unwillingness to lynch claimed VT despite statistical advantage.

I'm unwilling to lay too much to "statistical advantage"... Those numbers are assuming the game is random, essentially taking out the 'game' part of mafia. So if I'm pretty sure there's no reason to lynch X, I wont be voting X come lynch.

P-Edit:
So Rainbow, you saying you think it was a vig kill?

Also, I don't agree that bastion would be a mafia kill target.
Wait..Would Basty be a good mafia target?
My thought was, he's a good player, but he's targeting a townie, he may be able to drive a mis-lynch. But would that still be too dangerous to keep alive just in case?

[Rainbowdash]

P-Edit:
So Rainbow, you saying you think it was a vig kill?

I abstain from answering that. I think the more ponies talk about the kill coming from a certain alignment, the more they can accidently give away about how they are looking at the game. Sometimes figuring something out is as simple as asking yourself how somepony is coming to the conclusions they are coming to. Like your comment about everypony possibly being VT, not something that will usually come to the minds of scum or non-VT to actually bluff.

What remains is if it was a vig kill, they need to claim, which means they are clear and we can probably wrap this game up fast.

My thought was, he's a good player, but he's targeting a townie, he may be able to drive a mis-lynch. But would that still be too dangerous to keep alive just in case?

Apart from the fact that I all but told any protective role they were on SB last night under penalty of death, this is all WIFOM. Sometimes scum will avoid a kill beacuse they are afraid of the player being protected, they have a PR read on another, or simply because they think they can keep a pony on tight enough reings to justify them staying.

I still think SB is probably town at this point, and roles should take the same plan of attack as they did yesterday tonight without some major changes.