The Children of Húrin Mafia (GREAT REVIVAL)

[Amrun]

Thanks for clearing that "guilty" up, seraphs.

I

[Amrun]

Thanks for clearing that "guilty" up, seraphs.

I DO think empking's reaction was terrible. "I wasn't informed there was a guilty on me," he said. That's a scummy reaction.

I'm still down with lynching empking, but in light of this, probably the better choice is espeonage.

When I get back to my computer I will log in properly and change my vote.

p-edit: woops, submitted too early

[Herodotus]

Ok ok we need to sort some crap out.
Faramina confirms that Magister-ooba is indeed Nienor.

I don't see how that information is helpful. Can they tell us whether Magna is Turin? That was the rolename-cop investigation we needed. I know you said earlier that they didn't believe there would be two Turins, but I assume that was just setup speculation.

Mechanically, I'm not sure whether it matters. But I'm trying to reason this out:

If we know Magna is not Turin, we should lynch him today.

If we know Magna is Turin, then of the 2 Turins, one could be scum or both could be town. Potentially both could be scum, but certainly not aligned together because that would be rediculous. We should not lynch Magna, but that doesn't necessarily say whether we should lynch Sun.

---

I didn't post this earlier, but I don't recall why:
A player who doesn't even win with the town is making more sense than anyone else in the game.
But I disagree about two things:
Espeonage being a goon wouldn't protect him from a NK, so either the kill was prevented in some way that doesn't implicate him as scum, or he's a GF.
It's reasonable for Espeonage to be on townies' kill-but-not-top-priority lists, because the big scummy thing people are pointing out about him is his lurking, which tends to be overshadowed by in-thread stuff. So I'm not convinced by the association tell (unless some who have taken such a stance on him die and flip scum). That said, he's a reasonable wagon, and if Furcolow would answer my questions, I might join you.

From the signup thread:

While no direct (or, as far as I can see, implied) lies to the players are involved, this is a game with distinct elements of bastardry. If every faction feels, at some point, at least a little bit screwed over, that will be just as planned. When signing up for this game, please be aware that no guarantees are made against any controversial setup element or Moderator behavior.

If Sun's role PM honestly does say that Magister ooba is Nienor, I don't think this is a mod-lie.
Although if roles are being duplicated, Andrius could still potentially be Nienor too.

[Andrius]

Because they thought he was town [?]

OR OR OR

OR I AM NOT A NAMECOP

Also:

do you think if i could have found out magna's name i would have fucking done it by now? christ jesus.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Unvote

[Plum]

Smargaret replaces Espeonage effective immediately. Vote count should be up shortly.

[smargaret]

Confirming in thread to say I'm here, but it's past my bedtime so I'm not going to catch up all the way tonight.

[Plum]

VOTE COUNT #3.5

Sun and Moon -

6

- Empking, MagnaofIllusion, Ellibereth, Andrius, SpyreX, kanyeknowsbest
Empking - 4 - Sun and Moon, Magister Ludi, Furcolow, Will-o-wisp
Furcolow - 1 - Herodotus
smargaret -21 - Feysal, Gut

Not Voting (4): Dekes, mockingjaye, smargaret, Mastermind of Sin

Vote: 24. AlmasterGM + Thor665

This is an invalid vote and does not register a change.

With 17 alive it will take 9 votes to lynch.

Please get the posting rate up. Thanks.

Deadline will be (expired on 2011-11-01 23:59:59)

Mockingjaye is being prodded.

[Magister Ludi]

Confirm vote: empking

[mockingjaye]

1. Feysal: Does your wincon/PM have any information that would lead you to believe that the existence of two Turins is possible?

2. Seraphs: Knowing that S&M is Turin, what is your take on MoI's claim? What do you think should be done?

3. What is this from Empking about not giving Andy his role? Because I can see how town Seraphs may not let someone they think is scum give someone a scum role. Empking, did you give Gandalf his role? If you did give Gandalf his role, why him first and not Andy, since you spent a lot of time voting Gandalf on D1? If you didn't give Gandalf his role, then we can assume whoever did give him the town role is town and you aren't based on the Seraph's reaction.

4. Gut: You said you already know the Seraphs can millerize. How do you know this, and do you think they--and not the killing of Chronopie--are what made S&M into a miller? Because given the fact that they claimed to know S&M is Turin, if they had also millerized Turin, then I would think they would also claim that as well.

5. Herod: I haven't thought much about Furc past his claim yesterday. Today he seems to have forgotten he's the one who has confirmed Feysal as 3rd Party/Not Evil by suggesting that he is actually scum. However, until we sort through the mess on the table, not sure anything else can actually happen.
____

I still think this could be a bastard element and we do have two town Turins (one who has taken the name Turambar); if this is true we are going to lose one or the other and there's nothing we can do to change that, which I think would also qualify as pretty bastard. In response to Ludi, given this is a bastard game, I'm not surprised that there is a suicide cop role AND a miller role. It seems that this would be the exact situation a mod would expect or even desire to happen with both of those roles in play.

Also note: I am very much an overthinker and sometimes make simple things very complicated (which is one reason it takes me a long time to post). This day in particular has me banging my head on a brick wall so to speak, so I'm walking you all through my thought process to try to make sense of it. (And for those with bleeding eye syndrome, I tried to make it as reader-friendly as possible.)
____

Ludi: I considered the Lyncher/scum angles as well, but ultimately dismissed them as being too complex/convenient/convoluted to make sense.

Why I Don't Think He's a Lyncher

1) By name-claiming, MoI put himself in a precarious position as lyncher. The risk would have been an unnecessary one; town probably would have gone along with him just as cop.

2) Having a lyncher looking for Turin means that there are two third-parties with Turin as a target. Not impossible, but I'm not sold on it, either, since a lyncher succeeding would just be helping the SK achieve his wincon, and the lyncher would be under incredible pressure to keep the lynchee from being NK. And, since MoI had S&M as first on his night-vig list (Post 1384), again not likely.

3) The Seraphs have confirmed that they gave MoI the Suicide Cop role during N2; the timing of this is too convenient to support intricate conspiracy theories. He could have been aware of their identity all along, but that puts us back at point one; he could also have been a role-cop all along and the Suicide Cop was just a coincidence, but then again, that would mean another massive coincidence in the S&M's becoming miller and having a mason buddy with whom to confirm it. This becomes very complicated.

For people saying MoI is scum, why? Because I've considered this situation a lot and have basically discarded the idea he could be scum based on timing etc.:

Discarded MoI-Scum Scenarios

a) Scum-MoI is on team with rolecop. They cop S&M during N2 (because doing so on N1 would have just given them a Mason/Vig result) and get the result of Miller/Mason/Vig. Then Seraphs make MoI suicide cop, and he goes, "Oh Boy, LOOK AT THIS!" So instead of just claiming cop and a guilty, he hatches some elaborate plan to pre-emptively CC S&M since he knows who they are from the scum-RC and---yeah, getting complicated for ONE NIGHT's worth of actioning. It also opens him up for massive amounts of questioning and scrutiny which scum don't want.

b) Scum-MoI is on team and they don't have a role-cop. He just happens to get this ability and decides to use it on S&M, then fakes a guilty not knowing they are a Miller because this is worth getting himself lynched the next day? Not bloody likely.

c) This scenario is the only one that might be even the tiniest bit plausible given the time parameters: Scum-MoI is on a team with Ludi/ooba, who tells everyone that S&M is a miller. This leads to a plan of faking a guilty on them. Being turned into a "Suicide Cop" at the last minute is just a happy accident that helps MoI cement his claim and get the lynch. From here on out, MoI must confirm town or bus buddies, so it could be a scum gambit, but it 1) hinges on Ludi/ooba being one of his buddies and I don't see that as possible--MoI and ooba were clashing the way they did in Olympus when they were both town, and 2) given how early it is in the game, again, I don't think this is plausible because the longer someone has to keep an elaborate con up, the more chances there are to make a mistake.

So I'm sticking with the belief that both Turins are town, representing two different aspects of the character, unless someone can walk me through a scenario I haven't already considered and/or points out gaps in my thinking. I don't like MoI's "tone of voice" so to speak, especially today, but I don't see how his claim, especially at this point in the game, is scum-motivated. I could see him making some crazy fake claim later in the game, but having trouble with it on D3 with so few flips.


____

I'm not voting yet because I still want more discussion and I want some of my questions addressed. Aside from the conundrum we have to deal with today, KKB, Empking, and Espeonage are still my top three scum-picks. Aside from ALL of that, the tone of the game is becoming very negative and I would like to see it scaled back some.

[Feysal]

Feysal, that theory is all good and well, but why are you not helping us lynch the Seraph-confirmed scumbag Empking?

Andrius already posted the seraph clarification that they did not have a confirmed scum read on Empking. I suspected that might be the case, and I was more confident in Espeonage being scum.

Quoting this because Feysal forgot(?) to answer.

I suppose I did. However, it was asked before, and I answered in post #1063. My kill flavor is not specified, and I did not know what it would be until I killed Wraith.

1. Feysal: Does your wincon/PM have any information that would lead you to believe that the existence of two Turins is possible?

I can't say it would be conclusive either way. However, there is no mention of the cognomen Turambar, only Túrin.

For people saying MoI is scum, why? Because I've considered this situation a lot and have basically discarded the idea he could be scum based on timing etc.

I was thinking about the third scenario you mentioned, where ooba/Magister Ludi would be scum with MoI and would have informed him of Sun and Moon having become a miller. But as I said, my town read on ooba was too strong for that, and besides, I can't think of a credible reason for scum MoI to have outed himself with a name claim that would be counterclaimed. So yeah, this mess is confusing me too.

What Andrius is saying sounds like we can't expect further help regarding MoI's identity. This starts to sound like some sort of reverse name cop ability, where you start with knowledge of a role and can find out who has that role. Maybe it can still be used to confirm Morwen, Húrin's wife, but now is not the time anyway.

[Gut]

4. Gut: You said you already know the Seraphs can millerize. How do you know this, and do you think they--and not the killing of Chronopie--are what made S&M into a miller? Because given the fact that they claimed to know S&M is Turin, if they had also millerized Turin, then I would think they would also claim that as well.

... There are 2 seraphs, so if a seraph millerized him it would presumably be thor/agm, not the same seraph that is claiming S&M is Turin. But no, I don't think a seraph did the millerizing, it does show the mechanic is in play though.

LESS S&M VOTES PLEASE

[MagnaofIllusion]

... There are 2 seraphs, so if a seraph millerized him it would presumably be thor/agm, not the same seraph that is claiming S&M is Turin. But no, I don't think a seraph did the millerizing, it does show the mechanic is in play though.

Or, of course, Sun and Moon are scum and never 'became' a Miller in the first place. Derp.

MORE SUN AND MOON VOTES PLEASE!!!!!

[Magister Ludi]

~~~
Magna, what are you reads on the four players I outlined several posts ago, those being Dekes, empking, kanye, and Heord.

[Empking]

Empking, did you give Gandalf his role? If you did give Gandalf his role, why him first and not Andy, since you spent a lot of time voting Gandalf on D1? If you didn't give Gandalf his role, then we can assume whoever did give him the town role is town and you aren't based on the Seraph's reaction.

Yes.
I thought MOI was lying and I knew he couldn't give a reason for doing Gandalf first.

[Magister Ludi]

You give out roles to people?

[Empking]

You give out roles to people?

Only to those that lack one at the time.

[Magister Ludi]

Can Andrius confirm this, assuming he has a role now?

[Empking]

Can Andrius confirm this, assuming he has a role now?

He said he didn't get one. I don't know why.

[Andrius]

What Andrius is saying sounds like we can't expect further help regarding MoI's identity.

This.

(Mina):

1) I forgot that I changed my mind on Amrun_death. I don't want her dead now. I think Amrun is town but not confirmed town. I would like to know if Ludi noticed Amrun shying away from killing certain people in their mason qt.

2) We're not namecops. Our PM confirmed that S&M is Turin and Ludi is Nienor. There was no alignment-confirmation, though it is a guarantee that they are NOT fakeclaims.

3) The Empking deal was not intended to be a gambit, but when people took Faraday's dealio as srs bsns he wanted to run with it.

[/i]
*Again, please note this must all be paraphrased/re-scripted to avoid copy-paste.

[MagnaofIllusion]

(Mina):

1) I forgot that I changed my mind on Amrun_death. I don't want her dead now. I think Amrun is town but not confirmed town. I would like to know if Ludi noticed Amrun shying away from killing certain people in their mason qt.

@Mina

- Here's the deal. Either get on board with Sun and Moon's death or deactivate my latent Power. Because I am not going to deal with waffling around when doing so FUCKING KILLS ME!

Your choice.

[Andrius]

deactivate my latent Power

Here's an idea.

[Herodotus]

The Seraphs have confirmed that they gave MoI the Suicide Cop role during N2

I'm pretty sure that the Seraphs only confirmed that they "activated" MagnaofI, and they CANNOT confirm that this made him a suicide cop.
Consider your analysis again, given that.

[Herodotus]

deactivate my latent Power

Here's an idea.

Magna should ask the mod whether that would prevent his death though, otherwise it's a waste of a good-seraph action.

[Amrun]

2) We're not namecops. Our PM confirmed that S&M is Turin and Ludi is Nienor.

AND YET DOESN'T MENTION MOI

HMMMM