Mini 1243: Magician Mafia (Game Over)

[saulres]

DGAF?

I still say the VT pile has at least one scum

What about the VCA? What's your thoughts (and everyone's really) on scum being on the lynches?

Here's my handy link to my post with color-coordinated names.

As you can easily tell, there

has

to be scum on the Fishy lynch -- unless you think there's only 1 scum left, or that 4nxi3ty and I are scumbuddies. So that one's not really all that helpful.

But the other two -- what are the odds that Riggs is the only scum on both wagons?

Notes about who was considering hammering on the other two (apologies if this isn't complete):

On SL, deadline was approaching, and both Junpei and Anxi3ty claimed they would hammer. Junpei was trying to give SL a chance to claim. 4nxi3ty, for some reason, rather than do the hammer himself, asked Junpei to do it. 4nxiety's claim also was that would hammer "one hour and thirty minutes" from the first post I quoted, but that time came and went without him doing anything, and Locke came along and hammered.

On Riggs, a week before deadline, when Riggs was at L-3, I explained I was going to vote for him in 22 hours and was willing to hammer if that's where he was. After I posted that, Luxury voted him and Snake came in replacing Locke and voted him as well. I would have hammered but Riggs took that out of my hands by self-hammering.

[saulres]

Junpei is my strongest read and that that outweighs his claim.

Do you mean you don't believe his claim, or you want to lynch him despite his claim?

[Crab Canon]

doesn't give a frak

I do think there were probably more than one scum on the springlullaby lynch. I'm not sure about GNR. The fact Snake/LL were on every single lynch is almost a town point imo. Scum tend to not do that if they are even a little bit aware of how bad it looks. IDK. Junpei still bugs the crap out of me with how much of a sidelines game he's played this entire time.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Vote Count 4.8

Amrun (L-1) - Crab Canon, Luxury, SnakePlissken
4nxi3ty (L-3) - Junpei
Crab Canon (L-3) - 4nxi3ty
SnakePlissken (L-3) - saulres
Junpei (L-3) - Amrun

Not Voting (0)

Deadline: Wednesday November 2 @ 11:00 AM Eastern
Countdown: (expired on 2011-11-02 11:00:00)

SnakePlissken has been prodded.

[4nxi3ty]

can someone explain the junpei case to me? thank you in advance.

[saulres]

Scum tend to not do that if they are even a little bit aware of how bad it looks.

How about if they're not particularly aware, because every time they place a vote it was after just replacing in or returning from time off and saying "I'm in/back, haven't had much time to look at the thread, but since everyone else is voting

xxxx

I will too?"

[Amrun]

Junpei is my strongest read and that that outweighs his claim.

Do you mean you don't believe his claim, or you want to lynch him despite his claim?

The latter.

I've discussed why, in detail, so it should be obvious.

If you're going to lynch me, get it over with.

No one is going to listen to me, and this game will likely be lost because of it.

I'm having sudden gut siezings over Crab Canon, whose vote should be on Junpei right now but is not.

[Luxury]

I've done that a lot. Could you give a specific post reference so I can figure out what you're asking about?

Willingly. The speculation of Anxiety being roleblocked N1 and thus mafia given the lack of kill is one of the things that I strongly believe makes sense at this point and you seemed to agree so in 1078 yet dropped it quickly afterwards so an explanation as to why or what else you believe to be the case would be lovely. Also no, with the shared vig claim and the complete lack of kills I very highly doubt inclusion of a SK in the setup. To answer your question in 1478, it's confirmed that Vi was shot either N1 or N2 removing his bulletproof protection and I believe that's where the scums nightkill was on night two.

Not understanding the recent suggestion of Saulres-scum from Snake and Anxiety at all, right now he's my strongest town-read by a long way and I still dislike the idea of votes being on Crab and to a lesser degree Jumpei. And yes, I was online yesterday to post a mod post but that's all I had time on given the fact that it was 4am. Really hoping Shift shows up before the end of this phase though because I know he was leaning slightly against Amrun + Anxiety being the scum-team last we spoke for some reason but he didn't elaborate into why.

@ Amrun -

If you believe Jumpei is scum can you elaborate on who you believe his likely partners are and how it would work given his roleclaim because your continued push on him despite his roleclaim likely coming from town (Which you agreed with) is continuing to strengthen my scum-read on you.

[Amrun]

Read the freaking game.

I already explained.

I'm DONE explaining.

I think it's Junpei + one from the VT pool.

[4nxi3ty]

@snake:

Read the freaking game.

I already explained.

I'm DONE explaining.

I think it's Junpei + one from the VT pool.

this is why i think amrun is town. she has been in a similar situation as me this game where very few people are willing to listen to her, and she has shown a similar frustration.

[4nxi3ty]

@amrun:

I'm having sudden gut siezings over Crab Canon, whose vote should be on Junpei right now but is not.

hurry, switch over to the cc wagon before it is too late.


@saulres:

GREAT catch, 4nxi3ty! That's the kind of scumslip I like to see, when they know enough about their story to remember the gist, but get a key detail wrong.

Vote: CC

now is your time to shine, no else is going to vote snake today.

[Crab Canon]

I'm having sudden gut siezings over Crab Canon, whose vote should be on Junpei right now but is not.

I talked to Juls last night and she said she would try to put up a Junpei case for Anxiety today. I feel she's probably going to be able to articulate it much more thoroughly than I would. She said she's going to get a dog today, but she would try to get it up this evening. we have enough time before deadline I believe.

[Junpei]

We should probably stop setup speculation at this point as we are 3 days from deadline.

I feel like there isn't much information left and people have started going "x is scum" or otherwise repeating themselves.

[Crab Canon]

My major reasons for suspecting Junpei are:

1) Meta - I played with Junpei-town in a newbie game and he was relentless to the point of alienating even the town. He was very obvious town too. Here, not so much. He seems timid and acts like a follower. Not a leader (as he tried to be in his newbie game).

2) He jumps around and as I said above seems to follow. Today has been a prime example.

In 1236 he votes Anxiety. Then, in 1324 he follows Anxiety's case and votes us. Then he unvotes because he is content with our case but puts us back at L-1 in 1410 to entertain Anxiety. Then he revotes Anxiety in 1416. That sequence of posts was very obvious that he needed an excuse to jump back over to Anxiety since he knew he wasn't going to be able to pick apart our timeline.

This is just one example of having significant swings in reads. Not to mention that he chose Amrun as his kill choice last night. What? You come in voting us and Anxiety but your kill choice was Amrun?

3) The claim. It doesn't make sense. First night they both targetted Sotty and they died. Second night Junpei shot Anxiety and Saulres shot Fishy (but was blocked). So this proves that Junpei cannot kill alone and that potentially they have to be on the same target, right? Well wait, then there is night 3 where saulres stated in thread he was going after Anxiety yet Junpei targetted Amrun. Both were unblocked as far as we know and they targetted different people...but Vi died!!!! This seems like a pretty swingy role or something is missing. If we assume they have to target the same person for them to die then why was there a kill last night on someone that neither of them targetted. Saulres is clearly town and Junpei is very scummy so if it were a scum-town pairing then Junpei would be the scum.

4) The huge-mega-big-deal he made about "hydra dissonance". Seriously? It really read as reaching to me.

I (Juls) haven't seen Junpei as town the whole game. I have went back and forth on Amrun. I am going to let VP decide if he wants to move our vote to Junpei but that is my preference. If Junpei is scum we need to look at Anxiety hard because why would Junpei not want Anxiety killed when saulres put it in thread?...

[Junpei]

First off, on the meta argument, I learned a vaulable lesson that game. A lesson that acting as I did in that game is bad. It had gotten to the point where the thread was growing three times as fast as any other newbie game, and the conversation was 100% me, Link, and Ree. The game itself got messy and so much so for you to where you replaced out. I'm not going to be as insane as I was in that game in this one.

Just because I think Anxiety is scum does not mean that I cannot believe he would bus, or cannot follow his logic. If someone posts something that makes sense to me, I will accept it, and he did. I do not go "but you're scummy so stfu ur wrong automatically". The case was compelling at first, saulres also went with it, but like saulres I eventually backed off it because it didn't seem ideal to me anymore, and I liked your response. You have Saulres down as extremely town, so this should be relevant to you.

My vote put you on L-2, not L-1, so it wasn't a dangerous vote. The reason I did it was so that Anxiety would answer Saulres' question. He wouldn't answer directly to Saulres because of some vendetta he has, but I forced him to respond. The only reason my vote was there was to question Anxiety, and once the questioning was over, I moved my vote onto Anxiety, who I wanted to lynch before the CC case ordeal started.

I already explained my choosing of Amrun. I wanted to follow the plan to make sure that we got the kill in. I thought the plan was to shoot Amrun, I didn't notice that we were shooting Anxiety if Fish flipped town.

So what you're saying in number 3 is that the role mechanic is strange, and therefore I'm mafia because Saulres likely isn't?

I hate hydras in general because they practice hydra dissonance which is annoying and unfair. I wasn't calling you scum based on it.

[Junpei]

Also, if these are your major reasons for suspecting me, then why are they all so recent? I thought that I have been scummy to you the whole game pretty much, shouldn't there be more historic links?

[saulres]

it's confirmed that Vi was shot either N1 or N2 removing his bulletproof protection

That's the second time you've said that.

Why do you think it's "confirmed"?

[Junpei]

Saulres I think that the logic is:

Vi had BP
Vi died N3
So during 1of(N1, N2) Vi was shot, making Vi lose BP capabilities, and thus allowing an N3 death.

The only way this is not the case is if 3 shots went off n3, 2 of which hit Vi, or if our vigilante goes through BP vests. The latter is technically possible but seems a lot less plausible, and the former seems ridiculous.

[saulres]

if our vigilante goes through BP vests. The latter is technically possible but seems

a lot less plausible

,

Not to me.

Note that with "traditional" flavor, Serial Killers use knives to perform their kills.

As they do not use bullets in this case, they can kill players regardless of whether they are Bulletproof.

Non-bullets go through bulletproof. 2 bulletproofs in the game and a way to get them killed without lynching. I don't see that as being "less plausible"

at all

.

[Luxury]

Also no, with the shared vig claim and the complete lack of kills I very highly doubt inclusion of a SK in the setup.

@ Saulres -

If there's a SK in this setup that can shoot through BPs where is their kill N2?

I'll respond to everything else tomorrow when it's not 5am.

[Junpei]

Hm, I didn't notice that bit in the wiki Saulres. This is interesting. I haven't ever seen any BP that hasn't blocked all night kills on it with 1 shot, but then again, I can't recall seeing any BPs on this site, so perhaps you're right.

Luxury, he's referring to our vig kill, not an SK kill. You have plenty of experience, perhaps you could shed some light on this topic?

[Crab Canon]

Also, if these are your major reasons for suspecting me, then why are they all so recent? I thought that I have been scummy to you the whole game pretty much, shouldn't there be more historic links?

Meta has been strong throughout the game and I have expressed it several times. Also, you have made the "hydra dissonance" argument on at least two occasions and defended it on more. The first time was day one. But the two for today is what makes me want to move my vote more than anything. When I was rereading your iso my already bad vibes got stronger about the claim. Remember I was away when the claim was made. Even though I was skimming I didn't get to really analyze it until I got back. I can't see how both of you are telling the truth and I believe saulres more than you. The Vi kill doesn't add up unless the role said if you disagree then some random third party is killed and that seems pretty bastardly.

Can you and saulres please restate your knowledge of your role and how it relates to the other person?

My understanding is:
-You don't know about each other.
-You both targeted sotty night 1 and they died.
-You targeted different people night 2 (fishy/anxiety) and no one died. Saulres was blocked.
-You targeted different people night 3 (anxiety/amrun) and Vi died.

Does your role suggest you are a single vig? I apologize if this has already been covered and given the short deadline it might be easier for you to just answer rather than me try to find it again.

[Crab Canon]

Unvote

until VP has a chance to weigh in. The vote may go right back.

[Junpei]

Those four points are all correct as testified by Saulres and I.

The role doesn't suggest I'm not a single vig, so I suppose that it does in a way. Also, you say:

"The Vi kill doesn't add up unless the role said if you disagree then some random third party is killed and that seems pretty bastardly."

Well, considering that no definite rules other than the fact the vig shot is fairly erroneous I don't see why it would specify one rule and not the others. I agree it is a little bastardly, but I am not sure what bastardly means. To my understanding, it is lying to the players, and I don't see reason to believe that, he just withheld information it would seem.

[Crab Canon]

bastardly means a role that is not very fair to the player playing it or the people in the game in general.

I can only see two ways the mod would make this role:
1) You both have to target the same person.
2) You alternate nights of who gets the kill.

In either case the Vi kill doesn't make sense. The ONLY thing I can think of that does make sense is if the second is true and there is a mafia re-director that redirected the kill night 3. If that is the case then I would guess that Junpei has odd nights and saulres has even since he was blocked night 2 and there was no kill. In that case you would have been the one who submitted the kill night 3 and either you killed Vi or it was redirected.