Mini 1265: Wickedestjr's Mini Normal- Game Over

[Wickedestjr]

Votecount 2.5:

Not Voting - [10] - bionicchop2, el simo, FightingShadow, Gen_Wolf, Katty Bard, Odysseus, redtail896, Soben, Uphill, Yonzy

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 5 to no-lynch.

Deadline: (expired on 2011-11-19 20:00:00)

[Fishythefish]

That confirms Ody, Soben, GW, bion as even townier. Uphill is still town. That leaves:

Yonzy, KB, el simo, redtail.

This just seems like Yonzy admitting he's scum:

If DH is mafia, then I'm really disappointed that both SH and DH were such terrible and un enthusiastic scum. SH didn't try much to defend himself, and neither is DH.

This is a really, massively unnatural sentiment for town. Town would feel
a) proud of catching the scumteam and
b) wouldn't be nearly sure enough of DHscum to post this.
You might, just, barely make a post like this after the game. But never before one of them had even flipped! This is Yonzy complaining that his scumteam was crap.

I'll read the others, but I really can't see that I won't be voting Yonzy here.

[bionicchop2]

He should have been shot as soon as he replaced himself into the game.

With 2 confirmed scum, I think I should be able to piece together a solid theory here. Time to grab some lunch and see what I can come up with.

[Soben]

Oh man, this game. Is mass-claim optimal now because I'm thinking it is. Bionic, Uphill, Fishy, Gen and Odyssus are close enough to conftown and Redtail and Simo are highly likely town. Final scum is one of Katty or Yonzy, relatively certain of that.

[bionicchop2]

-iso #2 meh, maybe its just me but when I see someone discussing bussing early on I usually think scum, because scum are in the mindset from pregame that they may have to bus to win or at least are thinking about their options. Town aren't thinking of bringing up bussing, because well, they are town.

shh let him bus his buddies first

Unvote, Vote: treznor

. yuck. Go ahead, timeater, you can bus him.

Interesting thesis.

It may be time to revisit this. It was a theory I had not heard prior to this game, so I wasn't ready to buy into it. One player has proven this to be true. I will see what else my snooping uncovers.

[Fishythefish]

redtail is pretty null to me. Reasonably good posting, nothing that screams scum or town.

Katty hasn't done much, but what she has done has been fine. I can easily fit her into a picture of town who's struggling a bit.

el simo gives me a gut town read. I just believe he means what he says.

VOTE: Yonzy

[el simo]

Exams today will be able to post late tonight.

[redtail896]

I have no idea whether a mass claim is optimal. If people want to I'm willing, but I have little experience with it.

I agree that Yonzy and Katty are likely the last two. SH actually talks about Yonzy even less than he does about Katty, and that's saying something. I can see either at this stage. My gut would be Katty, but if the town is going this way then:

VOTE: Yonzy

Honestly, we have wiggle room. I mean, lots of it.

[Slaxx]

Slow down. Yonzy might be town. I'll explain why when I get home but it revolves around DH pushing on both him and SH as his strongest scum reads at the end of yesterday. Keep in mind yonzy wasn't even under fire then. So why would DH throw another buddy under the bus when one was gone already?

[bionicchop2]

I am fairly confident adding FishyFish to the group of town reads right now. Partly based on their play since replacing, but also based on the way DH attacked timeater D1. He has proven to be a lazy busser and the harder pushing on timeater seems more indicative of pushing a mislynch.

[bionicchop2]

Soben - I will see what you are talking about specifically, but I would tend to agree based on my last post that DH did not push too hard if at all on their scum partner. They may have even defended them.

[Soben]

We have enough wiggle room to lynch Odysseus and still win.

Odysseus, I want an answer from both of your heads on whether mass-claim is the way to go or not.

[Gen_Wolf]

My work here is done. The guy with the fucking gun has spoken.

I think we should stick with the original plan and vote Katty, like Slaxx said, why throw both buddies under the bus when only one is on the radar?

Vote: Katty

[Fishythefish]

@Soben: Do you want that answer in a way that means I shouldn't comment on massclaim? I have opinions on this subject.

Hmmmm. Good point about DH's end of day. Putting Yonzy up there would be unnecessary and fairly odd.

[Soben]

Oh, don't get me wrong I welcome everyones opinion and comments on whether we should mass-claim or not, I just know that both heads of Odysseus has a lot of experience when it comes to working out optimal time to mass-claim especially Slaxx in minis.

[Odysseus]

Retro here. I still think we should massclaim.

VOTE: Katty because I still have those minor towntells on Yonzy and I would feel like a total badass if the only 3 people I pushed on this game were scum.

[Odysseus]

Also not that it matters much at this point, but el simo is confirmed town for me. I explained earlier in my reads post today.

[Soben]

Actually, you know what. Fuck it, I was going to hold of claiming to discuss this further and get more peoples opinions but it's pointless. We're gunsmith, we investigated redtail last night and he has no gun. Given the fact that mafia godfather is now dead (Who we were told would be shown as no-gun) Redtail is clear.

Vote: Katty

[Fishythefish]

Oh, don't get me wrong I welcome everyones opinion and comments on whether we should mass-claim or not, I just know that both heads of Odysseus has a lot of experience when it comes to working out optimal time to mass-claim especially Slaxx in minis.

Oh, ok. I thought you might be asking Ody for the other reason.

I think massclaim looks really, really bad here. We know next to nothing about the setup, so I can't see it telling us much. We have days and days to play with - any investigative PR around (and given Godfather, there may well be one) should be able to win the game if they don't get killed, even if the scum is one of the people we all think are town. It's tempting to go for a swift win via massclaim, but the optimal route has to be to leave the potential cop/tracker/whatever to beaver away and pop up in a few days when they find the surprise scumbag.

[Soben]

Oh and I think Scumhunter tried to convince me to fake a guilty on Odysseus to have him vig shot and troll to give scum a chance at least 20 times this game.

[Fishythefish]

Oh, ok. Reduces my scumpool to Katty and Yonzy, with el simo as an outside shot. Since they are miles above the rest of the field, I don't see the need to put much more effort into this game unless those three somehow all flip town. With the scumteam reduced to one, scumhunting becomes much duller - no interactions to play with. I'll happily vote any of those three, and noone else. Still thinking Yonzy is the best bet - his parting shot to DH is so unlikely from town.

[Soben]

I still maintain that Katty is just female gender telling. Women don't have the balls to bus both their teammates. She pushed on both SH and DH and while sure "everyone was doing it" neither of them particularly feel like busses to me. Yonzy should claim. If he is VT, we lynch him and we check Katty tonight.

[Soben]

unvote, vote Yonzy

[Odysseus]

The more I think about it, the more sure I am that Katty is last scum instead of Yonzy.

In Yonzy's first post he would have had to name one partner full scum and vote him and call the other lazy town/scum. Lazy town/scum is exactly the gist that I had at SH at the time and his reasoning for DH is exactly why I suspected him too. And the fact that Yonzy brought up DH when no one else was focusing on him has to count for something. Why would he do that AND start to push on SH as well? Yonzy produced three scum reads in that post and two of them were on his partners who at the time were not under much heat? Why? DH's main point against Yonzy was that he didn't continue to push hard on DH after the vote but that was because DH went on V/LA. And why is DH naming his only remaining partner his top scum read after we just lynched his other partner? He obviously wasn't trying hard to scumhunt so it was a conscious decision to bus his partner immediately? This even extends to today when DH asked for Yonzy to be shot instead of him. Why? The majority of people at that point we're calling for a Katty shot and a DH lynch. Why would he ask for the shot to be on his partner when he could just as easily push Katty? DH also said that he needed to reread Katty and myself and usually when scum will name two people for last possible scum, there's one town and one scum. You think he continued to bus and then pretended like he was going to read two people he /knew/ were town for last scum? Why not just call it out of his ass then? It's not like he would actually expect to find something. I completely understand the fence-sitting arguement and that's why Yonzy is my second lowest read but the other part complaining about how bad/lazy scum was is a null read at best. And when I look at my initial argument against Katty and how all the assumptions I made about Katty making decisions based on other player's alignment all came true... I can't help feeling like I was right from the start and I don't wanna ruin a potential chance to lynch all three scum by d2. During d1, there were two big wagons: One was SH and the other is Katty. If Katty was town, why did SH ask me to name the towntells his competeting wagon made? What is the scum benefit on asking one town person to elaborate on another town read WHILE he is being lynched? Soben just said that Katty wouldn't have had the balls to bus and so she's town? How come when Soben, Uphill and myself voted Katty did DH, SH (and even Yonzy) not hop on and instead call her null/town? What was the benefit? If three town were lynching town, why would all three scum avoid it like the plague? I still think that Yonzy/SH interactions at the end of d1 also point against that team. And none of the constant bussing makes any since to me.

For my happiness, could we lynch Katty today and if it's wrong, we can all blame it on me?

[Soben]

A great deal of the points you've raised in the above post are heavily flawed. With that said Scumhunter is offline and I'm feeling content to move our vote back.

Unvote, Vote: Katty