Newbie #228 - The Doom of Tinytown (Game Over!)

[Kelly Chen]

My signature is just a "size" tag right now. I was using my sig to advertise signups, but that's done at the moment.

Chris, it looks to me like viper unvoted

before

you pushed lynching Arvadite. Am I missing something there?

[viper0933]

Ahhh. All right. I'll be quiet now.

[viper0933]

Oh, and I unvoted Arvadite since I had other things to think about.

[viper0933]

Sorry for triple post, but I think we might want to wrap this up, seeing as we've been on day 1 for over 2 weeks...

[Arvadite]

well I don't see why Iammars is taking so long ti make his post is been roughly a week now.

[viper0933]

Be patiend, something that long has to take a long time to make. It'll be up soon.

[Mr. Flay]

Seventh Vote Count of Day One:

Erotomachia - 1 (Kelly Chen)
Arvadite - 1 (RandomActs)
viper0933 - 1 (Arvadite)

Not voting - 4 (Iammars, viper0933, ChrisV, Erotomachia)

With seven players alive, four votes will lynch.

Seven is your lucky number, though, because it's time for a

retractable deadline of Saturday, May 20th at midnight

(US Central time). At deadline, only 50% of the cast votes will be needed to lynch, as follows:

• If any one player has three votes, they may be lynched.
  
• In the event of a tie, the first one to reach that number of votes will be considered the target.
  
• However, if ALL FOUR other votes are cast (scattered about the remaining players, etc), then less votes will be on the leader than are cast, so the will of the group is not clear.
  No lynch
  will result.

Every time I vote count, I'll tell you whether the leader could be lynched under current conditions. It's simpler than it sounds; just make sure some player has 50% or more of the votes that are actually being cast, and they will be lynched. Of course, if discussion picks up significantly, or if you reach four votes on one person the old-fashioned way, this will all be moot.

Right now, obviously, no one is in danger of being lynched.

[viper0933]

Bah. I knew we'd get a deadline sooner or later. Let's pick up the discussion people!

[Iammars]

Note: Some of these posts may cover topics already talked about. I will still give my opinons because they are still important.

This post covers posts #129-160

#129 by Erotomachia:
You mentioned that you think that MeMe is holding something because of her "duty" to the town. Duty to the town is something every townie should have, because otherwise, you will not a good chance at winning. The one thing a townie knows for sure is their own alignment. And because I know my own alignment, if the town starts to attack me, it is my duty to defend myself as vigorously as possible to stop the town from making the wrong choice. And why wouldn't I do this if I were scum? Well, with a lttle manipulation, sometimes a lynch of a scum can make his or her partner look better in the town's eyes.

#131 by Erotomachia:
The first thing you mention is that MeMe can't have had suspicion earlier because she didn't show it. Unlike face-to-face mafia, one doesn't have to show every single emotion that one feels. If you feel something in your gut saying "Mr. Z is scum," you probably don't have enough evidence to go on it yet, so it may prove to be a bad idea if you voice it, because the town will just ignore it and the scum may focus on it and will kill you. One is not required to FOS everyone one thinks is suspicious.
Next, you mention MeMe's "hypocrisy" about wanting the three votes off of her, but being okay with the three votes on Arvadite. There is a difference between the two situations. The three votes on MeMe were three quick random votes on a nonscummy person. The three votes on Arvadite were three people who believed that Arvadite was scum. Also, MeMe has a duty to the town to try to stop them from lynching her so the thown has a better chance of winning. Arvadite appeared scummy to her, so she wouldn't really feel all that bad about lynching him. If Arvadite is town, he needed to be defending himself better than he was at that time.
Also, you mention that a quick, unexplained fourth vote is obviously from scum. That is not completely true. A quick, unexplained fourth vote would NOT come from a good town player. This still leaves three possibilities:
-An experienced, scum player
-An inexpierenced, scum player
-An inexperienced, town player
The question is: Would an experienced scum player put a quick, unexplained fourth vote on someone?

It's that Magic Number Crunching Time!

What is the chance that a cop will investigate the player and survive through the night to reveal his results?

Cop Reveal = Cop Exist * Cop Alive D2
Cop Alive D2 = Not D1 Lynch * Not N1 Kill
Not N1 Kill = No Kill + Kill Not Cop
No Kill = Doc Exist * Mafia Don't Target Doc * Doc Protects Target
Kill Not Cop = 3/4
Doc Exist = Cop Exist = 3/4
Mafia Don't Target Doc = 3/4
Doc Protects Target = 1/5
Not Lynch = 6/7
No Kill = 1/2 * 3/4 * 1/5 = 3/40
Not Nightkill = 3/40 + 3/4 = 33/40
Cop Alive D2 = 6/7 * 33/40 = 99/140
Cop Reveal = 1/2 * 99/140 = 99/280 = 35.357%

So there is about 1/3 percentage that there will be a cop coming out with results to incriminate him. The scum's only option is to counterclaim the cop, and past results have shown that scum doesn't usually come out on top with that. For the other 65%, the scum will have an scummy air to him or her (especially is he or she is Inexperience Challenged) for the rest of the game, no matter what happens or what logic is brought up in his defense.
Now we go back to our list:

-An experienced, scum player

-An inexpierenced, scum player
-An inexperienced, town player
Notice anything? Only inexpierenced people are left. So it is not a sure scum tell, but an inexperience tell.

Next, you say that everyone will behave in a rational manner. This, unfortunatly, is not always the case. There are two main factors on a human being's ability to use rational thought: How experienced they are, and their emotions/if they allow them to get in the way. About the emotions, if I came back from a chess tournament going 0-7 agaisnt players with an average rating of 500 (mine's 1322), I would be really pissed. If I were to come and post, I would not be thinking straight whatsoever, and I would have a tendency to attack people even more randomly.
About familiarity, I need to make another chess metaphor. The major opening that I play is the Colle-Koltanowski (sp?), and one of the themes that is in the opening is a Bishop sac on h7 leading to a devastating (and also, rather fun) attack on the kingside. While I did study this opening before I played it, the real experience in it came while I was playing the game. I may have had trouble seeing all of the conditions that I needed for that sac, but later, as I got better, I started seeing when that sac worked more often, and I won more games with it. We have the same situation here with mafia, as we have people who haven't experienced much of mafia yet? Can you always expect them to come to the best decidions 24/7? No.
Later, in that same paragraph, you blast MeMe for using a hypothetical situation in which she is scum. Such situations are okay for townsmembers to use. Other townsmembers do not know if they are town or not, so the townsmember in question can show how it would look to those people if he or she was scum, and show how absurd it is.
After that you call out MeMe for being overdefensive. Let me ask you, is it possible to be overdefensive ina situation like that?
Finally, in the last paragraph of your post, you say that MeMe is trying to use her "fights harder as town" arguement to prove that she is a townsmember. In order for that to be deduced, MeMe had to say that she is fighting harder than she usually does, and nowhere did she say that. Therefore what you said cannot be logically deduced.

#134 by Erotomachia:
The first thing you mention is that MeMe's voting patterns look scummy. The truth of the matter is, half the town thought at the time that Arvadite was scummy, so in order for Arvadite to lose his votes, he needed to explain his actions and otherwise convince us that he is a townsmember. This is completely different than the three votes on MeMe. I also like this little gem of yours:

So 3 quick votes agaisnt you = big problem, yet 3 quick votes agaisnt Arvadite = no problem

More like them manner and reason in which the three votes were casted on MeMe = anti-town strategy, the manner and reason in which the three votes were casted on Arvadite = pro-town strategy. When studying someone's voting history, don't look at just which vote was placed where, but why the votes were placed.

#138 by ChrisV:
I like your thinking about getting lynched, but there is one problem. The day phase is designed to favor the town more than it does the mafia (much like the night phase is designed to help out the mafia more than it is helping out the town.) If the town knows what it is doing, it has a better chance of kynching mafia than it does of lynching town. So it's more of a skill in shunting the town away when they're making a bad choice.

#142 by Arvadite:
Reason #1 you give is that MeMe used a defense that you described as

This to me sounds as a good defense to use if infact she were scum, for the fact that townies will recognize that it would be bad to lose one of those people early

It has become the general consenus among the MS community that sppedylynching is bad for the following two reasons:
-The town would lose a cop or a doc
-It cuts the town's talking time.
Why would it be scummy to use reasons that the MS community has decided prove that something is bad?
You also give who you believe the scum pairing is at the moment, what you think happened, and why you think so. The major event that sparks your consideration of this turn of events is viper's quick third vote on you. According to you, the only explanation is that viper was waiting for someone to vote so that viper and MeMe could distance their vites apart. What you are forgetting to consider is that mafia members can take time with their votes. They don't have to vote right after someone else votes. True, the longer they wait, the more of a chance that someone will unvote, but there will also be less attention drawn to the vote, which serves scum's purpose better later in the game. viper's reaction appears to be more like someone who just realized something and posted in his brainwave.

#144 by Arvadite:
You're basically making the same mistake as Erotomachia is. You're assuming that every person shows every single emotion that they feel during an online mafia game. I myself, because I'm playing online, will always try to think before I post, and sometimes I will mull over a post for a little while before posting. Also, because we're playing mafia online and everyone has a perfect record of what everyone has said, more evidence is needed to prove that someone is scum than in face-to-face mafia. If someone has one of those weird feelings about someone, they might not want to post is as there is probably not enough evidence.

#146 by Arvadite:
You make an intresting statement:

Using someone else vote as a "more powerful arguement" is waiting for someone else to vote, regardless of what you say the reason is.

To resond this statement, I am going to have to compare this situation to an endothermic chemical reaction.

Point A is where everyone starts in a game, and B is the point in which the person's whose graph this is gains enough energy to get a vote. Throughout the game, as people look more and more suspicious, they gain energy on the scale. viper could have been close to point B on his reaction scale involving you. He lept up to B when he saw RandomAct's post. What did it contain? Compiled info, with suggestions to what it might all mean. But why does info already in the thread matter? Compiled info can be a dangerous thing, as proved by the Supreme Court, when they held up the government's decision to stop the New York Times (I think) from printing compiled info of the Vietnam War. Having everything in one area makes it easy to establish connections. Besides, if we didn't listen to other people's arguementsand used them as the basis of our decisions, this wouldn't be a game of mafia.

#148 by Arvadite:
The arguement to this one is basically the same as the last one. Compiled info is easier to see, and viper may not have been able to make the connections without Random Acts

#150 by Arvadite:
What MeMe said is a reaction. She said what you said was complete crap.


So, who are my suspicious people at the moment?
Erotomachia: Your posts have a good amount of exagerations and spins on event, and you are saying that the three votes on MeMe and Arvadite are the exact same thing.
Arvadite: Your arguement consists of saying the same thing over and over again, on the most minimal of evidence that can be explained easily in a more logical way.
ChrisV, viper, Kelly Chen, RandomActs: Nothing on them, yet.

[ChrisV]

Vote Iammars

[ChrisV]

OK so I was going to be dramatic and just throw the vote up there... but I guess I should explain myself. Iammars you're not a newbie so I feel I can give my thoughts without toning it down at all. So...

Are you kidding me? Is this your idea of pro-town behaviour? Not posting at all for like 9 pages of discussion and then throwing up some godforsaken uberpost which doesn't talk about your suspicions of people, but instead makes detailed references back to specific posts inamongst 9 pages that nobody can be bothered looking at. And then, after this gigantic essay, your conclusions... are that you suspect the same people everyone else suspects and have nothing on anyone else? WHAT???

This is just town-confusing behaviour and makes me want you off the team whether you're scum or not.

Even though I like Mafia and am still playing it on other sites I won't be playing here again because these games are, sorry guys, horrible. Any game where it's lynch-or-lose day two if you lynch a villager first and where the seer hasn't got a free pick on the first night are badly structured, period. Also I think they give newbies a really bad impression of what Mafia is actually about.

Since I doubt I can raise a bandwagon for Iammars, and since I still think Erotomachia is a reasonable pick and just want this day to end....

Vote Erotomachia

[ChrisV]

Also, the prevailing theory around here that you can identify scum via the bad quality of their logic is ridiculous. All that does is get newbies who don't know how to mount an argument lynched, while giving a pass to erudite scum.

[Erotomachia]

We should lynch ChrisV to put him out of his misery.

[Erotomachia]

I'm teasing, of course.

Anyway, Iammars just hopped on the bandwagon against me. Nothing new, as ChrisV pointed out...I found a lot of the analysis outdated (in regard to posts that were made and discussed a long time ago).

3 votes to lynch, is it? I think I've already got 2 against me...ChrisV because he wants the day to end, and Kelly Chen because I misinterpreted MeMe...

[ChrisV]

Majority to lynch, which would be 4.

[ChrisV]

er, ignore me. Deadline in force, so 3.

[Iammars]

Are you kidding me? Is this your idea of pro-town behaviour? Not posting at all for like 9 pages of discussion and then throwing up some godforsaken uberpost which doesn't talk about your suspicions of people, but instead makes detailed references back to specific posts inamongst 9 pages that nobody can be bothered looking at. And then, after this gigantic essay, your conclusions... are that you suspect the same people everyone else suspects and have nothing on anyone else? WHAT???

As I said earlier, I am not the fastest to respond to logic. I tend to try to think through my posts, especially if everyone else in thinking through them. You guys just pushed through a whole lot of logic in a short amount of time, and my brain just went haywire.
As for reaching the same conclusions as everyone else and not bringing up anything on anyone else, I went throught those 31 posts, and those were the only parts of them that I had found deserved some rebuttal too. Since no one else posted anything that deserved that, I didn't mention it, and they don't seem scummy to me.
Had I not posted is but kept on amending it to reflect the situation, I would have never posted it.

This is just town-confusing behaviour and makes me want you off the team whether you're scum or not.

I know that this isn't my normal playstyle, but due to Meatworld obligations now, I can't play like I used to.

Even though I like Mafia and am still playing it on other sites I won't be playing here again because these games are, sorry guys, horrible. Any game where it's lynch-or-lose day two if you lynch a villager first and where the seer hasn't got a free pick on the first night are badly structured, period. Also I think they give newbies a really bad impression of what Mafia is actually about.

Since I doubt I can raise a bandwagon for Iammars, and since I still think Erotomachia is a reasonable pick and just want this day to end....

First of all, if this structure is bad, why don't you give us a better one to introduce newbies in. And if you really don't like this one, why don't you just jump into a mini or normal? They have majorly different setups than newbies.
Second of all, you seem to be agreeing with the town on Eorotmachia, so why are you complaining that I am agrreing with the town too? Just because a post is long doesn't mena that it has to say something different that hasn't been brought up before.

[viper0933]

I'm just going to throw this out.

FOS: ChrisV

What kind of logic is that?! If you don't like the setup, like Iammars said, then just play a mini or normal game. Heck, even a themed game.

Second of all, he stated why he wasn't posting for 9 pages. You were all patient, then all of a sudden, once he makes his post, you basically blow up in his face! He even stated ahead of time that his would be long!

Oh, and you never unvoted.

[Mr. Flay]

Vote Iammars

Vote Erotomachia

I need you to confirm that you're switching your vote from one person to the other; usually an

Unvote

will suffice to show you're making a conscious decision.

After that clarification I'll post another vote count. Right now no one is in danger of being deadline lynched, in any case.

[Arvadite]

In response to Iammars:

Post #142: All I was stating about MeMe's reference to occupations was that her mentioning them made it seem like she held one of those positions (because if came fairly early in the game when she had one or two votes. I wasn't saying in essence it was scummy, but I was saying I could see it as a clever cover for them.


Post #144: That post was based on several other posts. If you look at the two posts by RandomActs and Viper0933, they were three minutes apart. I stated I found that unlikely to be coincicental, in which viper lied and said he voted after I defended myself against RandomActs, which I had no chance to do. He had already placed a FOS in me so I don't see why he would have had to wait until someone else voted for me in order to do so. And it has nothing to do with emotions online, this post was blantly showed my anger towards viper0933 for what had happened. I just find too many flaws in his defense against it.

Post #146: What you stated was that RandomAct's vote against me was a catalyst, lowering the activation energy (the amount of information needed aginst me to gain a vote). This of all this theory is flawed because everyoens vote should be independent, not dependent on how other people vote. Secondly, Point B wouldn't be a vote it would be more like the lynch of that player. Oh, and I would like to directly quote RandomActs in his vote for me.

This so much deja vu for me. In my very first game I also eagerly cast a third vote on someone to move the game along. And wow, just like this situation, did I ever catch grief for that! So I understand what Arvadite was thinking. But then again, I was mafia in that game. So...

Unvote: Iammars
Vote: Arvadite

What intrigues however is how candid Arvadite's defense seems to be. Usually scum will manufacture excuses to cover their butts or justify their bogus votes, but I don't see any of that here. Too new to apply that tactic?

That is in no way compiled information that’s an opinion based on what HE had done. So that defense for viper0933 isn’t going to help you.

Post #148: Same as above.

Post #150: That was me being on a slower computer than usual, when I posted it MeMe’s response had not shown up yet.

What I find funny is how defensive you have come out for Viper0933. Here’s a little fun fact:

wtf Arvadite? If I said I'd vote for RandomActs, it must've been a typo. Please tell me where I said that.

And the probability of RandomActs and I being the scum pair is around 1/49 (tell me if it's wrong), so the possibility of number 2 being correct is 3/49. Number 3 possibility is 1/7 chance or so, (with there being 7 players and all) while number 1 is possible, since about 3 people or so are new, so they don't know very many strategies. That makes it about 4/7, but it changes depending on the experiance of the players.

If any of that's wrong, please let me know.

Here's the people who should be under suspicion. (If in these: (), then not so much)
Arvadite
Viper093
(Randomacts)

I think at least 1 scum is in there somewhere.

Then,

Well, I don't think anyone should be at 3 votes for now, so I'll

Unvote

.

The funny thing is that nothing changed between those two posts besides the fact that he was being attacked for spiting out the probabilities, which were incorrect. I could see if the argument against me had dropped, but it hadn’t. And what do we see, five posts later MeMe unvotes me as well. I’m not saying they are linked I am showing another instance that made me believe the two were connected. I know think viper0933 and Iammars being together is more likely.

[ChrisV]

OK first of all the formalities. In the games I've played a vote is also sufficient to unvote the previous vote. That not being so here:

Unvote

Vote: Erotomachia

Viper, use your head. Am I scum, or an exasperated townie? Your call. Saying that "my logic" is bad is the stupidest thing I've ever heard.

The reason I blew up in Iammars' face is that his long-awaited post was a complete waste of time. I could have written it myself since it imparted zero information that was not already town wisdom.

I wasn't aware that you could play other games as a newbie. My understanding was that site rules were to play 5 newbie games before playing anything else.

A better structure to introduce newbies in is extremely easy. It's one that, as I said, doesnt involve lynch or lose Day 2 with no cop peek. Examples: 7-2-1 with no peek. 6-2-1 with a peek. etc etc. Also, a game with less than 10 players should never, ever take 2 weeks to play out.

The reason I am uneasy with Erotomachia, who otherwise I'd be fine with, is that the whole town seems keen to lynch him. This suggests that the scum are fine with the lynch.

Arvadite's post: tl;dr.

[ChrisV]

If you want to see my idea of what a game should look like, check out: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showf ... &fpart=all

Days in this game are half an hour, yet we still were able to pick out the wolves.

Be amazed at [censored]'s wolf sniffing abilities!

[viper0933]

Here's who I think is the most likely scumpairs

Arvadite and Erotomachia
RandomActs and Iammars (this is a joke. I just decided to put this in for a little humor )
Viper093 and ChrisV

Erotomachia is pretty close to confirmed scum by the discussion here.
Arvadite is next, but really, isn't all that scummy to me anymore, although he isn't off completly
RandomActs and ChrisV, well, I can't tell who is more scummy, although they are pretty low on my scumdar.
Iammars and Kelly Chen (MeMe) are the lowest. Iammars is slightly more scummy, although there's nothing too bad against him, other than the not posting often thing, but that's explained. Kelly Chen (MeMe) has played good the entire game, although it would be better to post a "tad" more.

Mod:

can we get a mod on Kelly Chen please? We haven't seen much of her lately (since Saturday)

[Arvadite]

So viper0933 your not going to defend yourself from anything I said? Thats strange.

[viper0933]

I don't see much power in your argument actually.

Please tell me how Iammars and I are a likely scumpair.

And really, grow up. Iammars actually has a better argument against you than you have against him. Seriously, he has lots of good points against you, and what is your response? Arguments that got old a week ago? I don't see much that'll help you against his reasoning. You haven't been playing all that well this game, and I don't really see how your logic contradicts Iammars. On the contrary, I think Iammars's post contradicts YOURS.

And in the last paragraph, you don't really sound like you're suspecting me except that I'm being linked to MeMe (Kelly Chen), but then you say that Iammars and I are a more likely scumpair. First of all, you have no evidence to back that up, and if you do, please state it. Second of all, look at this.

[quote="Arvadite]I

know

think viper0933 and Iammars being together is more likely[/quote]

Whether you meant "know", or "now", that doesn't make too much sense. If you know, then that's a scumtell to me. If you mean now, like I said before, please state WHY it's more likely.

I don't like the way you're wording your posts. It just turns on sirens in my head. Start posting better and stop making logic that makes no sense.

I'd like to hear from Kelly Chen. She might be able to post more evidence again people.