Mini 325 - The Office ---Game Over

[Der Hammer]

The alarm clocks go off and the employees trudge in reluctantly to work. Slightly pissed from the drunked night before they get to their drole boring work. Jennifer comes out and checks the signin up to notice that

Drake

has not even arrived. Sick of his lateness and no message she sends him confirmation via email that he is Fired as off now. The day continues until Jennifer realises someone has stolen her purse. After a brief search it appears in

Flying Dutchmans

desk. He protests his innocence but it is to no avail as he is fired as well. He leaves the building and the day continues.....

Still working-5

logicticus
Sentinel99
PookyTheMagicalBear
wintergreen
armlx

Fired-7

Adele:

Monkey Alan

/

Townie

/

Slough Branch

...Lynched on Day 1
Max:

Rachel

/

Mafia Henchman

/

Swindon Mob

...Fired on Night 2
Twito:

Simon The Computer Guy

/

Roleblocker

/

Slough Branch

...Fired on Night 2
kirbyphreak :

Tim Canterbury

/

Cop

/

Slough Branch

...Lynched on Day 2
W!nt3r:

Gareth Keenan

/

Cop

/

Slough Branch

...Lynched on Day 3
Flying Dutchman:

Chris Finch

/

Doctor

/

Slough Branch

...Fired on Night 4
drake43:

Lee

/

Mafia Henchman

/

Swindon Mob

...Fired on Night 4

It is now Day 4 and will take 3 Votes to get a lynch

[armlx]

OMFG Winter you were an idiot....

Sorry, just had to get that out.

Mass claim time?

[W!nt3r]

/wrists

[logicticus]

seriously winter, terrible play

its a good thing we are getting some cross kills (unless a vig wants to take credit) because we cant take care of business ourselves...

[wintergreen]

Ugh, this isn't good.

Of the five of us remaining, here is a list of who voted on each of the ill-fated lynches:

Day 1
Armlx, Sentinel and I voted Adele.
Pooky voted kirbyphreak.
logicticus did not vote.

Day 2
Sentinel, armlx, logicticus and Pooky voted kirbyphreak.
I voted kirby, changed to Sentinel (was confused by W!nt3r's results)

Day 3
Everyone here voted W!nt3r except logicticus, who didn't vote.

Conclusion: we are all gullible. It does appear that logicticus seems the most unwilling to bandwagon, which is usually a good sign.

How the scum voted, and any interactions:

Day 1: Max votes W!nt3r.
drake votes Adele, and seems to also disbelieve W!nt3r.
W!nt3r and I FOS Max.

Day 2: Max is nightkilled. drake does not do anything.

Day 3: drake does not do anything.

So that doesn't tell us too much either... augh...

[Flying Dutchman]

Bah.

[logicticus]

you guys think we are in lynch or lose?

if so, what do you think the merits of a mass claim are?

we really dont have any information since weve been following the cops leads and then killings th cops because we tried to outguess the mod

[Sentinel99]

I guess I don't disapprove of a mass claim, but I don't know how helpful it will be. I guess I'll start. I'm Ricky Howard, Townie.

[logicticus]

it was really just supposed to be a discussion, not an actual claim...

[wintergreen]

We might be in lynch or lose if there is one mafia and one SK remaining.

Mass claim might help if someone's claim seems less believable than the others. We've already lost our doc so at least that eliminates the risk of exposing them.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Mebbe NL would be the best option...

Here's how I see the probabilities break down assuming a GF and an SK:

If we lynch, then in the best case we lynch either GF or SK and the remaining baddie kills and we get down to a 1/3 situation where we have to lynch right or lose.

that's like a 2/5*1/3 chance of winning on pure random lynches.

However if we choose to NL, then the probability of one of them taking out the other one is 1-(3/4)(3/4)= 7/16 and then we're at 3 alive 1 baddie and we have a 1/3 chance of winning.

basically 7/16*1/3 > 2/5*1/3.(not by that much)

However! there is also an outside chance built in that the 2 scum will shoot each other, this figures in at 1/4(1/4)=1/16 which gives us an outright win!

However what would happen if both bad guys hit good guys? then we're left in a 3 person standoff that the town will STILL win if the bad guys shoot each other(which they would do with a good idea of who was bad), in that case a NL enforced by the townie claiming that he will countervote the first person to vote for him will be FORCED to go into a NL endgame.

Of course there are a few factors like both bad guys shooting the same townie which would preserve town control of lynch and what not.

I think we should consider NL as an option if we have no real information to go on.

btw where's every1 else?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

love the activity level btw guys.

[logicticus]

i love your analysis pooky and I am inclined to agree with you.

we are in a pretty tough spot right here since we have killed both cops and not gotten any real valuable information from anyone.

if i had to lynch someone right now, I would not even know where to start. So a NL doesnt look too bad based on your probablities.

[armlx]

Maybe a mass claim pre-lynch could help. At LoL its not an issue with both cops dead....

[logicticus]

Im in favor of a mass claim as well.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

massclaim is probably pretty bad b4 a NL, it would throw those kill probabilities all helterskelter and possibly parade out the last protown power roles to get butchered by the scum.

[wintergreen]

I guess we are at a loss for ideas and maybe NL is a viable option. The chances look decent, though I'm a little worried about the worst-case scenario. Mass claim is probably more risky at this point though.

Sorry for inactivity, I've been rather busy.

[Sentinel99]

Two days. I feel we've stalled. If town has decided our best bet is no lynch, then I say we need to all vote that. If anyone has a better plan of action, voice it now, right? I mean, the way I figure, we've got one remaining scum, and just because we had two kills doesn't mean SK. Maybe vig? Five still in, right? We vote NL, scum hits one of us. Additional kill role, maybe another. Three remain, and nobody wins? If there's SK, scum, and Townie, what happens? Town loses, but SK and scum have to freaking hope on a lynch, right? I mean, town is pretty well out of it by this point, unless we can find scum, right? Well, who does everyone suspect and why?

[logicticus]

we arent out of it at all

i dont have anyone on my suspicion list because the first days went so quick and we lyching extremely quickly (I was just as guilty as everyone else)

vote no lynch

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

vote no lynch

[armlx]

Pooky: I'ld rather mass claim and have the info to potentially lynch someone scummy.

[Sentinel99]

Personally, I agree with armlx, but the reasoning is equally strong on both sides. I still think a mass claim would be more beneficial than a no lynch. I think a no lynch leaves things entirely too up to chance. But, I also don't want to put the power roles at risk. I guess I'll go ahead and

vote no lynch

.

[Der Hammer]

Jennifer arrives to find everything had ran smoothly that day and lets everyone go out for a peaceful night of clubbing.....

Still working-
logicticus
Sentinel99
PookyTheMagicalBear
wintergreen
armlx

Fired-7
Adele: Monkey Alan/Townie/Slough Branch...Lynched on Day 1
Max: Rachel/Mafia Henchman/Swindon Mob...Fired on Night 2
Twito: Simon The Computer Guy/Roleblocker/Slough Branch...Fired on Night 2
kirbyphreak : Tim Canterbury/Cop/Slough Branch...Lynched on Day 2
W!nt3r: Gareth Keenan/Cop/Slough Branch...Lynched on Day 3
Flying Dutchman: Chris Finch/Doctor/Slough Branch...Fired on Night 4
drake43:Lee/Mafia Henchman/Swindon Mob...Fired on Night 4


It is now Night 5 and have 48 hours to get choices in

[Der Hammer]

The group gathers to find that Logictus and Sentinel have been sacked for negilence......

Still employed

PookyTheMagicalBear
wintergreen
armlx

Fired-9

Adele: Monkey Alan/Townie/Slough Branch...Lynched on Day 1
Max: Rachel/Mafia Henchman/Swindon Mob...Fired on Night 2
Twito: Simon The Computer Guy/Roleblocker/Slough Branch...Fired on Night 2
kirbyphreak : Tim Canterbury/Cop/Slough Branch...Lynched on Day 2
W!nt3r: Gareth Keenan/Cop/Slough Branch...Lynched on Day 3
Flying Dutchman: Chris Finch/Doctor/Slough Branch...Fired on Night 4
drake43:Lee/Mafia Henchman/Swindon Mob...Fired on Night 4
logicticus: The Oggmonster/Serial Killer....Fired on Night 5
Sentinel99: Ricky Howard/Townie/Slough Branch....Fired on Night 5

With Three people alive and working it will take 2 to lynch

[Sentinel99]

Bugger all. Good luck townie.