New York 146 Zach's Insane Mafia World (OVER)

[Tammy]

^^ that should be DV not being killed

if

DY is not an FBI agent?

[Nobody Special]

DY could be a different power role, like a Mafia Watcher. I DON'T KNOW, OKAY?

My brain hurts.

[Tammy]

Well your vote on me suggests that you absolutely believe that I am a serial killer. If I am a serial killer, according to your beliefs, why is it impossible for there to be an FBI Agent?

There was already a mafia watcher, so DY couldn't be that. Any other alternatives?

If you believe that DY's role is some other power role that is not an FBI Agent, then how likely is it that there is a serial killer in the game? Which would make your vote on me...why again?

[Tammy]

What I find odd is MoI's reaction to his suspicion. When MoI replaced into the Kirby game, and he said who would probably be scum if they remained alive for too many more days with the player list, he said that he would say the same thing about himself. So if he knows he's going to get suspicion when he remains alive for a little while, why does he seem surprised or frustrated by it? (Although he handles it a lot better than I do when it happens to me.)

First I’m going to share some history with you.

I played for over 2 years on another site before coming to MS. There I developed a strong reputation similar to here – I was almost uniformally killed N1 as Town in every game regardless of play / role / whatever simply due to rep. It, as expected, got to the point that any game I survived N1 the calls of “MoI is scum, he’s alive” came raining on Day 2, often from scum. It actually became a viable discussed strategy for scum to avoid killing me just to make that argument to push for my claim.

Suffice it to say that I stopped playing games there shortly afterwards because the investment of my time wasn’t worth it. I wasn’t going to live more than two Days regardless of alignment or play.

I understand your point regarding Kirby Mafia – I specifically made that point regarding Spyrex and PranaDevil because it was true … the playerlist in that game was significantly weaker overall and them living any amount of time was something I didn’t want escaping those who were not experienced.

I’m used to dealing with “MoI is Alive” arguments and “Burden of Proficiency” arguments here. It’s pretty common. What makes me rather peeved is when they are made completely in absence of context and facts of the game. Simply put – I find attacks based simply on the “He’s alive right now” with the playerlist as it stands (and I challenge Darth to explicitly say directly he feels I’m a better player than he is and thus it is reasonable he hasn’t been killed) and the claims that have been made.

I absolutely get this. That kind of thing is the reason my site uses alts for almost every game we play, and most mods employ rather strict alt and meta-rules that can get you modkilled for outing yours or someone else's alt. (Not that I don't out my alt within 5-10 posts to most everyone because of my style, but still.) That being said, that kind of underhanded play is rather looked down on there as it drives people away, which is what we don't want. There are a lot of site cultural differences between the two that take some getting used to though.

The only reason why I thought it was odd was because of what you said during the Kirby game, so I just figured it was something you expected in every game.

[jon_h61]

OK since the beginning of THIS thread Snake only posted twice, and from my understanding this was his play before the Crash. How did he avoid getting replaced?

@ NS I still think you are the best lynchee for today. Your accusations (to me) are so weak, and without any justifications to back them up that I have a very hard time seeing them coming from a Town perspective.

@ Tammie I absolutely see the arguments for you being the serial killer. But, thanks. Your questions have helped me to better understand a few things.

[Alicewondering]

DY could be a different power role, like a Mafia Watcher. I DON'T KNOW, OKAY?

My brain hurts.

Like the role Jason had? You seem severely confused. Are you paying attention. What don't you believe about DY's claim?

[Zachrulez]

10th vote count of day 5:

Tammy - 4 (Magua, Alicewondering, MagnaofIllusion, Nobody Special)
Nobody Special - 3 (redFF, Jon_h61, Tammy)
DarthYoshi - 1 (DeasVail)
redff - 1 (havingfitz)
MagnaofIllusion - 1 (DarthYoshi)

Not Voting: ()

With 10 alive it's 6 to lynch.

Day 5 will end no later than Friday, April 13th at 6pm CST

[havingfitz]

OK...I'm still not seeing how redFF is avoiding a lynch today. It seems like the sentiment of the town has changed to where people are thinking there is an SK versus earlier opinion (the whole red herring thing) that there wasn't an SK (i.e. DY was lying).

Despite the single NKs N1-4, I think it is a slam dunk pointing in redFF's direction if there is a SK. I'm sure I'm leaving out a few facts and a lot of assumptions but here is my current thinking:

Assumption - There is an SK
Assumption - DY is telling the truth and is an FBI agent
Assumption - Kamrun jailkept redFF N4 (which facilitated Kamrun's death

and somehow affected the SK's action

)
Assumption - The SK would benefit from targeting DY more than players who would also be prime Mafia targets
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fact - We had a different NK flavor N1. This points to mafia's kill not going through which is also supported by Kamrun keeping IAI N1 (iirc)
Fact - We have had three consecutive SK kills not go through (based on NK flavor).
Fact - We have a claimed FBI agent who claims to have non-SK results in DV, me, iirc NS, and fill in the blank for the next one which I do not recall...but am pretty sure does not include Tammy nor redFF. Fact - Despite claims to have protected zMuffin and Kamrun the last two nights, zMuffin and Kamrun are both dead and redFF remains alive.
Fact - Kamrun jailkept redFF N3 (which facilitated zMuff's death

and somehow affected the SK's action

)

The N1 SK kill was a success. A N2 failed SK kill could be explained by whoever the SK targeted having received a protection of some sort (who did MOI claim to protect N2?).
The N3 and N4 single kills are too perfectly coincidental to redFF's assumed jailkeeping to not point directly at him as the SK.

Nowhere does this same coincidental logic apply as strongly to anyone else in the game. People are pointing at Tammy as an SK solely based on Snake being absent. We don't know Snake's schedule and how hard is it to get a PM off to the mod in a 72-hour night period? I'd argue the odds are a lot less than any other explanation that doesn't point to redFF.

If people wake up and redFF does wind up being the lynch...I will be amazed if he flips town/bodyguard. On the off chance he does...DY investigates one of the 1 or 2 players he has yet to clear and Alice tracks whoever she wants. It's in scum's best interest to hit the SK so I assume they would have a 50-50 chance of hitting the SK. If DY states who he will be investigating scum could target the other player. Either way the SK is outted and we can get that lynch out of the way. This would probably lead to a few town kills as well but we could get lucky with an Alice track (if mafia decide to cooperate on the SK hunting). But I think this would all prove worthless hypothesis based on my belief redFF would flip SK.

Note: This is all SK hunting logic and does not apply at all to any mafia suspicions. Tammy (as well as almost everyone else) could still be mafia...and if there is a mafia case on her...by all means, strong her up. However...SK or Mafia...scum is scum and:

Tl:dr:

Tammy is much less likely to be the SK than redFF. VOTE redFF.

Thank you.

[DarthYoshi]

Okay. First things first.

Unvote. Vote: redFF.

I promised I would after going on V/LA, and nobody else seems interested in lynching MOI.

BUT--it worries me that the red wagon has essentially disintegrated when between him and MOI, we are very likely to have AT LEAST one scum.

MOREOVER, I am worried that it seems to have disintegrated, at least in part, for an NS wagon.

Look.

NS's play right now is craptastic. He's actually guessing that I'm a maf watcher when that role has already flipped.

Thing is--that sort of carelessness actually is, for me at least, a MASSIVE towntell for NS.

I've had two games with TownNS (quadz's large normal and Pine's mini normal, sadly the latter has been lost to the tiger crash) and two games with ScumNS (amrun's happy sunshine hospital and CDB's West Wing Mafia). In both town games, NS's play was poor, careless, or both, and extremely so (I remember him even apologizing after quadz's game for how poorly he played). In both scum games, his play was FAR more meticulous and thought out, and at least in Amrun's game, he had me BADLY fooled.

I realize that I am basing this townread on nothing more than meta right now, but his play over the last few pages makes me think that lynching him is 100% NOT the play today.

So I'll vote Tammy at deadline to avoid a no lynch (can someone please explain the wagon on her to me? She's spewed all over this thread, but I'm having a hard time distilling this scumminess seen in her down to an actual case. Not saying she isn't scummy (like I am w/ NS), but that I just am not seeing it right now. I kinda get why Magua thinks she's the SK, but as for everyone else...??? So, help, please) but I continue to maintain that Ghostlin's original proposal of MOI or red is still optimal.

Er... Tammy seems like town to me.

Except I'm not sure at all.

It's like you're begging us to lynch you.

Also, what, pray tell, was the point of your #421?

As explained to death prior to this, Snake was away for, like, ever, and there's never been more than one kill per night.

Ipso facto, you're it.

Absence in the daythread doesn't prove by itself absence from night play. Strategic lurking is strategic lurking is strategic lurking.

Can you also explain, in just a few sentences, why exactly you don't believe my claim at this point in time, especially if you're suggesting (as I think you are here) that tammy is the SK? (PREFERABLY IN A WAY THAT DOESN'T MAKE ME AN ALREADY FLIPPED ROLE)

@Tammy: I listed my investigation targets some time ago--ISO me to find 'em. Fitz, NS, Thor/Jon, and DV. All not serial killers.

Fitz's play is interesting. He's definitely stepped up his focus and attention to detail, but a lot more of his play seems to be focused on setup speculation, which I'm not sure is *actually* all that helpful. I mean, if there's a two-flip, there's a two-flip, and we can deal with it then. For the moment, why don't we simply focus on lynching scum?

[Tammy]

BUT--it worries me that the red wagon has essentially disintegrated when between him and MOI, we are very likely to have AT LEAST one scum.

So I'll vote Tammy at deadline to avoid a no lynch (can someone please explain the wagon on her to me? She's spewed all over this thread, but I'm having a hard time distilling this scumminess seen in her down to an actual case. Not saying she isn't scummy (like I am w/ NS), but that I just am not seeing it right now. I kinda get why Magua thinks she's the SK, but as for everyone else...??? So, help, please) but I continue to maintain that Ghostlin's original proposal of MOI or red is still optimal.

@Tammy: I listed my investigation targets some time ago--ISO me to find 'em. Fitz, NS, Thor/Jon, and DV. All not serial killers.

Thanks. I found most of it when I reread the first part of the thread yesterday. I think the only one I was missing was HF.

Do you remember what the reasons for Ghostlin proposing MoI were? If they're in this thread, I'll find it as I'm making my way through the thread again, but I don't remember it from my first read.

What you are reasons for suspecting MoI that are independent of his still being alive?

[Magua]

Ok.

No. We're not lynching redFF. I'm 95% sure that in the pool of (redFF, MagnaofIllusion), and I'm 85% sure that the scum in that pool is redFF.

But

, killing redFF means Alice dies tonight. Letting redFF live means Alice lives, *or* redFF gets lynched.

That is way, way, way more important to me at this point in time.

There is literally no way that redFF is the SK, because there is literally no way that redFF is surviving until the endgame.

In the neighborhood, Magna is putting up resistance to the idea of me wanting him investigated by Yoshi. I'm not sure why, and it sorts of bugs me, but we're arguing it out.

I don't think DV is Mafia, and I know via Yoshi he's not SK. Next to Alice, he is my largest townread.

I have literally no read on Jon or NS, both of which sadden me greatly.

[Tammy]

In the neighborhood, Magna is putting up resistance to the idea of me wanting him investigated by Yoshi. I'm not sure why, and it sorts of bugs me, but we're arguing it out.

What kind of resistance is he putting up? Is he giving a reason he shouldn't be investigated?

[DarthYoshi]

BUT--it worries me that the red wagon has essentially disintegrated when between him and MOI, we are very likely to have AT LEAST one scum.

So I'll vote Tammy at deadline to avoid a no lynch (can someone please explain the wagon on her to me? She's spewed all over this thread, but I'm having a hard time distilling this scumminess seen in her down to an actual case. Not saying she isn't scummy (like I am w/ NS), but that I just am not seeing it right now. I kinda get why Magua thinks she's the SK, but as for everyone else...??? So, help, please) but I continue to maintain that Ghostlin's original proposal of MOI or red is still optimal.

@Tammy: I listed my investigation targets some time ago--ISO me to find 'em. Fitz, NS, Thor/Jon, and DV. All not serial killers.

Thanks. I found most of it when I reread the first part of the thread yesterday. I think the only one I was missing was HF.

Do you remember what the reasons for Ghostlin proposing MoI were? If they're in this thread, I'll find it as I'm making my way through the thread again, but I don't remember it from my first read.

What you are reasons for suspecting MoI that are independent of his still being alive?

Ghostlin basically suggested that three protective roles (one confirmed JK, a claimed two-shot doc, and a claimed bodyguard) are highly unlikely in a 18-player setup, and that either MOI or red was likely fakeclaiming. You can ISO him to find what he said verbatim.

I've basically suspected MOI all game. His D1 play was lurkertastic and felt much more like scum trying to pretend to scumhunt than actually being useful.

Ok.

No. We're not lynching redFF. I'm 95% sure that in the pool of (redFF, MagnaofIllusion), and I'm 85% sure that the scum in that pool is redFF. But, killing redFF means Alice dies tonight. Letting redFF live means Alice lives, *or* redFF gets lynched.

So...you're pretty damn sure that red is scum and you DON'T want to lynch him because that means we lose a PR? Shouldn't the town almost ALWAYS be willing to trade a PR for a scum?

I've got a better idea: we lynch red today and I investigate MOI tonight, then you get to know if both players are SK as opposed to just one.

Also, plz 'splain your townread on DV.

[Tammy]

BUT--it worries me that the red wagon has essentially disintegrated when between him and MOI, we are very likely to have AT LEAST one scum.

So I'll vote Tammy at deadline to avoid a no lynch (can someone please explain the wagon on her to me? She's spewed all over this thread, but I'm having a hard time distilling this scumminess seen in her down to an actual case. Not saying she isn't scummy (like I am w/ NS), but that I just am not seeing it right now. I kinda get why Magua thinks she's the SK, but as for everyone else...??? So, help, please) but I continue to maintain that Ghostlin's original proposal of MOI or red is still optimal.

@Tammy: I listed my investigation targets some time ago--ISO me to find 'em. Fitz, NS, Thor/Jon, and DV. All not serial killers.

Thanks. I found most of it when I reread the first part of the thread yesterday. I think the only one I was missing was HF.

Do you remember what the reasons for Ghostlin proposing MoI were? If they're in this thread, I'll find it as I'm making my way through the thread again, but I don't remember it from my first read.

What you are reasons for suspecting MoI that are independent of his still being alive?

Ghostlin basically suggested that three protective roles (one confirmed JK, a claimed two-shot doc, and a claimed bodyguard) are highly unlikely in a 18-player setup, and that either MOI or red was likely fakeclaiming. You can ISO him to find what he said verbatim.

I've basically suspected MOI all game. His D1 play was lurkertastic and felt much more like scum trying to pretend to scumhunt than actually being useful.

OK so it is in this incarnation of the thread. I haven't had a chance to reread the last half, but I'll ISO it if it doesn't stick out. As far as the roles, I agree. It would be rather odd to have that many roles on team innocent.

I agree with your assessment of the scumhunting. I noted in my read that something didn't feel right. I need to finish rereading the thread, which I'll be able to do tomorrow, and ISO to see if my first impressions hold up, but what it seemed to me was a type of scumhunting that didn't feel quite earnest. One that focused too much on objectively verifiable information, which is a safe place for scum to hunt, and can't be contradicted due to textual proof but at the same time isn't necessarily indicative of scum. (I don't know if that made sense, but I know what I mean.)

Ok.

No. We're not lynching redFF. I'm 95% sure that in the pool of (redFF, MagnaofIllusion), and I'm 85% sure that the scum in that pool is redFF. But, killing redFF means Alice dies tonight. Letting redFF live means Alice lives, *or* redFF gets lynched.

So...you're pretty damn sure that red is scum and you DON'T want to lynch him because that means we lose a PR? Shouldn't the town almost ALWAYS be willing to trade a PR for a scum?

I've got a better idea: we lynch red today and I investigate MOI tonight, then you get to know if both players are SK as opposed to just one.
[/quote] [/quote]

I agree and disagree with this.

^^^^^8.5 on the wishy-washy scale.

In the sense of being willing to lose a power role in the case of lynching scum, I absolutely agree with you. However, I see Magua's stance in that Alice is his strongest town read and that is an important thing to keep. If he ends up having to choose in a possible endgame scenario, it's always better to have a known variable rather than two unknowns. Also having around someone's opinion whom you trust is pretty important, so I can see why he would consider it more important to keep her around than to lynch someone right now that might be scum.

[redFF]

lol@me being sk

[Tammy]

Who would your best guess for SK be?

[Magua]

So...you're pretty damn sure that red is scum and you DON'T want to lynch him because that means we lose a PR?

Ayup. Nailed it in one.

Shouldn't the town almost ALWAYS be willing to trade a PR for a scum?

Perhaps if the town were idiots they'd think in absolutes like this. But, Yoshi, see, I want to believe that you're not being an idiot.

I've got a better idea: we lynch red today and I investigate MOI tonight, then you get to know if both players are SK as opposed to just one.

I believe, with every single core of my body, that redFF is not the SK. If he's scum, he's mafia.

Why do I believe this? Because redFF is not living until endgame. His claim has guaranteed that he is not living until endgame. Why would an SK...even someone like redFF...make a claim that would guarantee that they lose? As scum, claiming bodyguard makes sense if the alternative is to be lynched. Hell, it's even great in multiscum because why would another scumteam/SK shoot you? But eventually you're going to die.

Good mafia claim. Bad SK claim.

Not lynching redFF.

Seriously, Yoshi. These are the basics. If he is town, it's obviously better to leave him alive. If he is mafia, he either has to *not kill Alice*, which is good, or, worst case, he kills Alice anyways and gets lynched tomorrow...in which case we lost nothing compared to lynching him today (in both cases both he and someone else get lynched, just with a different order). Absolute worst case scenario is that he is, in fact, the SK, and oh shit, he kills someone so there's two deaths tonight, in which case not only is it bloody obvious there's an SK, but we still don't lose a lynch because we're currently operating on an even number of people.

Really, if you think redFF is SK, I'm already not listening to you, and if you think he's Mafia, I want you to tell me who you think his partner is.

Also, plz 'splain your townread on DV.

He's not SK because you say he's not, and I don't think he's Mafia because of his interactions with Jason.

[Magua]

So, I was holding off on doing this until I cleared it with Zach, but Zach said it was ok.

Cached pages 3,4,6,7,11,13,15,17,22,23,25,26,27,28,29,34,37,38,41,45,46,47,48: Zip file

[redFF]

Who would your best guess for SK be?

you

[Tammy]

Who would your best guess for SK be?

you

Care to give a reason that doesn't include the already tired "Snake wasn't on the thread" argument? Because, seriously, once you lynch me, you're going to have to come up with a different plan. Might as well start thinking about alternatives now.

[Magua]

red, who did you replace?

[Tammy]

Um...help. Am I doing something wrong. I'm pretty technologically incapable anyway, but the cached pages don't have avatars or names on the left. Is that normal?

[Magua]

Sadly, that is simply how they were retrieved. Some players can be identified from their sigs. For the rest, you have to go by the join date. I didn't alter them in any way from how I got them.

[redFF]

I replaced lowell.

Who would your best guess for SK be?

you

Care to give a reason that doesn't include the already tired "Snake wasn't on the thread" argument? Because, seriously, once you lynch me, you're going to have to come up with a different plan. Might as well start thinking about alternatives now.

Am i voting you?

[Tammy]

Magua - Awesome. Slow reader becomes slower.

redFF - Didn't say you were. My lynching is a foregone conclusion, and you're going to have to reevaluate once that happens. Just encouraging you to start doing it now.