Mini 1321: Anxiety's Alliteration Mafia - Game Over

[scooby]

Scooby is definitely town, and Matias is townier to me for initially resisting the lynch when it would have been easy for mafia to go along with it.

Honestly, though, I can't really see CC as scum for that comment. Since the mafia didn't know Elias was scum, both town and mafia would go along easily with the lynch, so an eagerness for an Elias lynch seems more like a null tell than anything else.

My confidence in Internet Stranger as scum is somewhat shaken by his reluctance to vote for Elias, but he remains my largest suspect so for now

Vote: Internet Stranger

. When I get a chance, I plan to analyze the votes leading up the lynch after Scooby's fake claim.

1. why do you think I am town?

2. why didn't you vote Elias if you think both town and mafia would go along easily with the lynch?

3. when was IS reluctant to vote Elias?

[triangle123]

1. Because I've had a town read on you this entire game, and it was only strengthened by you pulling a move that a scum wouldn't possibly make.

2. I did vote him, actually.

3. Like, the entire time when he wasn't voting Elias.

[scooby]

1. ok

2. you voted him when you checked he wasnt at L-1 but before you posted that you wanted to wait for what Elias had to say. What exactly were you expecting from Elias?

3. iirc, he said he would vote for him?

4. can you make a list of all the people you suspect and you've suspected throught the game?

[triangle123]

2. No, in my first post, I thought he was at L-1 so I didn't vote yet and just asked him to claim. Then in my second post, I realized he was actually at L-2 so I placed my vote. I wasn't really expecting much from him, but it's customary to ask for a claim when it's that close to a lynch.

3. But he didn't even when the opportunity (i.e. wasn't at L-1) was available, and that avoidance is, while somewhat in line for IS's meta form what I've seen, still odd.

4. Uh, sure. I'm heading off to sleep now but I'll do that tomorrow.

[scooby]

2. ok

3. is his hesitation a scumtell?

4. ok

[redFF]

vote: triangle

good with this.

[Captain Corporal]

Everyone not on the Elias wagon:
Why? We have a COP claim. This is simple. We lynch the guilty. If guilty flips town, lynch the fakecop

Is it really that hard?

Sup scum

Vote: captain corporal

gtfo.
Scum don't jump on wagons like this.

[scooby]

Everyone not on the Elias wagon:
Why? We have a COP claim. This is simple. We lynch the guilty. If guilty flips town, lynch the fakecop

Is it really that hard?

Sup scum

Vote: captain corporal

gtfo.
Scum don't jump on wagons like this.

Is this seriously your answer? Wifom bullsjit?

[scooby]

SO
SCOOBY

When you made this post, what did yoh expect @e to answer?

[Captain Corporal]

An explanation of why the hell you claimed cop yesterday. You got lucky. We hit a traitor.
Tell me why you almost gamethrew?

Ca it wifom, but what else am I meant to say? I JUMPED ONTO THE GUILTY. WHAT IS SCUMMY ABOUT THAT?

[4nxi3ty]

Internet Stranger(2): Matias, triangle123
Matias(1): Internet Stranger
Praetyre(1): Captain Corporal
Captain Corporal(1): scooby
triangle1231(1): redFF

Not voting: DCLXVI, Praetyre, TheFool

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
Deadline: (expired on 2012-05-09 09:59:05)

[DCLXVI]

Thoughts about the traitor.

From the information on the wiki there are many different versions of the traitor.

1. Neither mafia, nor traitor know each other.
2. Mafia knows who the traitor is, traitor does not know who the mafia are.
3. Mafia does not know who the traitor is, traitor does know who the mafia are.
4. Mafia is not aware they have a traitor, traitor does not know who the mafia are.
5. Mafia is not aware they have a traitor,traitor does know who the mafia are.
6. Mafia knows who the traitor is, traitor knows who the mafia are, they just can't communicate.

Now there are other ways to make even more variations but I think you guys get the idea. That is why this post by triangle screams scum to me.

Honestly, though, I can't really see CC as scum for that comment.

Since the mafia didn't know Elias was scum,

both town and mafia would go along easily with the lynch, so an eagerness for an Elias lynch seems more like a null tell than anything else.

Please triangle, enlighten me on how you knew what information mafia did/or did not have about the traitor. You seem so certain about it.

Vote:Triangle

[TheFool]

So, scooby is almost certainly town, for general play, crazy gambit, and Elias pushing his case. The way Elias defended Prae doesn't read 'scumbuddy' to me, refreshing my Prae-town read. His case on Red Day 2 makes me kinda lean Red-town as well, though not as strong.

Still think there's scum between Matias and IS, still not sure which.

DCL's point about Triangle is veeery interesting.

VOTE: Triangle

[DCLXVI]

lol I need to remove that V/la tag

[triangle123]

4. can you make a list of all the people you suspect and you've suspected throught the game?

In roughly chronological order, the people I've suspected throughout the game are DCL, Bristep, Temp, The Fool, and Internet Stranger. I now find DCL to be one of my stronger town reads, and while I still harbor a few weak suspicions on him due to previous actions, The Fool's more recent posts come across as town and so I have a tentative town read on him. Obviously, I'm still suspicious of Internet Stranger.

Looking over the posts leading up to Elias's lynch:

Captain Corporal: I actually find it unlikely from his actions that he's scum. In 549, he somewhat questioned Scooby's claim, whereas I would expect mafia to be all over it without asking questions.

DCL: It was his actions here that really cemented my town read of him. He showed a lot of earnest analysis, and definitely came across as town.

Internet Stranger: He displayed his weird hesitation, making sniping comments about Matias and Prae while not actually voting for Elias. At first I just thought the hesitation was odd but not scummy, but after a closer look at his posts towards the end of Day 2, his reluctance to vote is rather suspicious. I've been thinking from the mindset that scum would want to jump on an easy lynch like this if they think the person about to be hanged is town, but it's also possible that scum would want to distance themselves from the lynch by not voting. This makes more sense, especially since he hasn't showed much of a reluctance to vote earlier on in the game or even now at the start of the day.

Matias: I find his reaction here to also be very town because he actively protested the Elias lynch. While I can possibly see some players as scum wanting to distance themselves from the lynch (like IS), I don't see why mafia would want to push this hard to prevent the wagon.

Praetyre: Like Matias, he also protested the lynch and refused to vote, which makes him a bit townier in my eyes. A question for Praetyre, though: in light of the Elias wagon, who are your top suspects now?

redFF: His reaction is null, since all he did was vote Elias.

Pre-Post Edit: DCL, I was unfamiliar with the role of traitor so I went to the Wiki and skimmed the article. Where do you see that the mafia faction knows who the traitor is? All I saw is that the traitor may or may not know who scum is.

[triangle123]

Yeah, I just checked the Wiki article again. All it says is that unless the Traitor is a different role, Mafia Spy, then the main scum faction doesn't know who they are. Hopefully that "enlightened" you enough.

[DCLXVI]

@triangle, I will look at the wiki again, I don't think you are correct but I will re-read the article.

[DCLXVI]

About the traitor situation:

1. The wiki says that the traitor role is normal, but there is no standard way to have him appear.

2. The wiki seems to imply that mafia will only know the traitors name if the traitor is a spy. However the wiki also mentions that the traitor is the newer form of the spy, couple that information with the fact that the role is not standardized means that there is no way to know for certain that mafia did/or did not know who the traitor was.

So basically the option for the mafia to know the traitor is still open. However, even if it is impossible for mafia to know the name of the traitor, triangle's claim about the mafia is still bad.

3. Mafia can either know there is a traitor, or not know there is a traitor, both options are explicitly stated by the wiki.


So basically that leaves us with two scenarios.

Mafia knew they had a traitor:therefor after the cop claim they would have known elias was a traitor.
Mafia did not know they had a traitor:therefor after the cop claim they could have thought scooby was fake-claiming.

When triangle expressed that mafia did not know that elias was scum. He was expressing what is likely inside information. As two completely valid circumstances remain.

For me, even though I am a newer player, when I saw traitor and looked it up the immediate response I had was being annoyed because there are so many possibilities with the traitor that it is basically impossible to try and judge anything out of elias' interactions because we don't know what level of information was available to both the traitor and the scum.

Instead of seeing a situation with a lot of possibilities, triangle immediately focus' on one of them.

Conclusion:

-The wiki is not clear about the traitor role, there is the potential for mafia to know the name of their traitor.
-Even if that option is not possible, mafia still can either know, or not know, that they have a traitor. Triangles statement assumes that mafia did not know they had a traitor.

[scooby]

I agree that is suspicious that triangle focuses on one possibility when this is the first time he sees the traitor role

He was scum anyways so

Vote triangle

[triangle123]

The reason I focused on one possibility is because I had never heard of the traitor role so I just skimmed the first few paragraphs to get a basic idea. I hadn't realized it was such a complicated role with so many possibilities. The first possibilities the article mention are all about traitor knowing or not knowing who the scum faction is, and I was under the impression that "Mafia Spy" was a separate role from "Traitor", so I assumed that the scum faction would not know who the traitor is or if one exists.

The fact that the mafia might actually have known who the traitor was complicates things, so I'll have to take another look at my analysis and take that into account.

[scooby]

Just claim already

[Matias]

So, scooby is almost certainly town, for general play, crazy gambit, and Elias pushing his case. The way Elias defended Prae doesn't read 'scumbuddy' to me, refreshing my Prae-town read. His case on Red Day 2 makes me kinda lean Red-town as well, though not as strong.

Still think there's scum between Matias and IS, still not sure which.

DCL's point about Triangle is veeery interesting.

VOTE: Triangle

...wait

why are you voting Triangle over the 50% chance you have between IS and I

[Matias]

Triangle doesn't claim until fool answers this shit.

[TheFool]

I've been suspicious of triangle all game, dude. I'd rather let you and IS go at it for a while and see what shakes out.

[DCLXVI]

I want to compare two of matias posts about elias to what triangle said.
Keep in mind matias posts are a minute apart so count them as one post.

Okay so lets assume Corporal is scum of a two man team. He believes Elias is town due to traitor.

I'm failing to see the motivation of him not staying low key and just going along with what he knows: Scooby is most likely fakeclaiming as town. He should have known that a plan like that would have come back to bite him.

Do you really see scum in that, scooby? I'm grasping at the motivations but I'm getting nothing and that's not enough to lynch him on. There are scummier people.

Or perhaps a two man team could be tipped off to an existing traitor and he would have thought that there was a real cop.

Fuck, I don't know.

This confusion/frustration about trying to draw conclusions from a traitor since we don't know what knowledge the scum had about the situation is exactly what my first reaction was to trying to analyze elias' flip as traitor,

this is a pro-town response.

triangle writes this:

Scooby is definitely town, and Matias is townier to me for initially resisting the lynch when it would have been easy for mafia to go along with it.

Honestly, though, I can't really see CC as scum for that comment.

Since the mafia didn't know Elias was scum,

both town and mafia would go along easily with the lynch, so an eagerness for an Elias lynch seems more like a null tell than anything else.

My confidence in Internet Stranger as scum is somewhat shaken by his reluctance to vote for Elias, but he remains my largest suspect so for now

Vote: Internet Stranger

. When I get a chance, I plan to analyze the votes leading up the lynch after Scooby's fake claim.

Expresses certainty about the scums level of knowledge in regards to the traitor. Very

definitive

on what she thinks it all means. Very different reaction and while it appears town motivated at first glance.

I will admit that there is the possibility of town triangle just not being clear on how the traitor worked, but given how unclear the wiki is, I am surprised that triangle could

"skim it"

and say she knew for sure what the situation was. I know for myself that skimming it did not leave me with a definite idea of what the exact definition of the traitor was.

I did not expect the triangle wagon to pick up steam so quickly. I think that triangle should be given time to roleclaim and defend herself. I will probably still be for a triangle lynch afterwords but I will

unvote

so that someone won't quick lynch before this can happen.

I am planning on going back through triangles ISO tomorrow in light of this and see if there is anything that would point for or against her being scum.