NY 151: Playground Mafia (Game Over-Mafia Win!)

[Benmage]

Hey all, back now, should have time for this game after work today.

Not a fan of any of the lead wagons.

I guess I'd vote pine.... need to read.

[Nero Cain]

Not a fan of any of the lead wagons.

I guess I'd vote pine.... need to read.

does not compute

[HezLucky]

Not a fan of any of the lead wagons.

I guess I'd vote pine.... need to read.

does not compute

Of course it doesn't Benmage has been coasting and inventing reads this entire game.

[mastin2]

Know what?

I think I've waited long enough.

The Scumteams are {

Kublai Khan, Junpei, Macross

} and {

Pine, shotty, The Mini-Librarian

}.

My Starting Point:

I started from this--a copy-paste from in-thread into my QT:

Spoiler: You Saw This

SCUM:
Kublai Khan Man
Pine
Junpei

shotty
The Mini-Librarian

SCUM SUSPECT: (Overlapped with Antihero)
Psyche

MINOR SCUM SUSPECTS:
4. FakeGod
8. DeasVail

NEED ANOTHER LOOK: (But tenatively town)
9. Macros

And began to work from there via process of elimination.

Follow-Through:

I then did an iso of Macros. It's important to note a fact about players as old as Macros--from what I can gather, Macros is a relic of the olden days of mafiascum, who unlike some other old scummers such as Internet Stranger has not continued playing often enough to keep up with site meta.

This is what led me to be a little bit suspicious of his lack of content on most players--by focusing on only a few players at once, he'd further a scum agenda. Furthermore, he never changed his vote, despite new content having appeared, also preventing much insight from being gained.

In addition to that, his only mention of Khan was pushing him away, but not really taking a firm stance: he was sheeping others (in particular, LLD comesd to mind) with his stance of "Khan looks like there's something off about him, but still looks good".

A weak distance, which was dropped soon after.

All of this is by-the-book classic scum play, which fits with Macros's old age.

Investigating Antihero's Comment

Macros(3) - Pine, rack, DeasVail

Definitely rules out Macros from a Pine/DV scumteam. THIS is why Macross could only be scum with Khan.

Basically, Macross could be scum with Khan, Junpei, shotty, TML, FakeGod, and Psyche, but not Pine or DesaVail.

I had made a similar observation to Antihero, so I of course needed further investigation. This is why I asked the questions I did in-thread: I was prodding around to see who Macros could be scum with.

I then gathered as many opinions as I could get. Simultaneously, I began making a list of scumteams from what I had already deduced. I then threw in wagon analysis to further narrow things down.

rack (13)-

Benmage

,

The Mini-Librarian

, Firestarter,

Kublai Khan

,

Lady Lambdadelta, drmyshotgun

, Maxous,

GreyICE, Nero Cain

, FakeGod,

Junpei, Pine

,

Antihero

So I've got four scum on here--I don't think there's more than that. This is evidence by itself that Maxous and FakeGod are town. Well-spread-out, too. This'd narrow it down to {Psyche, DV, Macross} for the final scum.

And from this, I did a final compilation, with the five scumspects I had for sure, and the three individuals vying for the last spot. The list?

Khan-Junpei-Macros | Pine-shotty-TML
Khan-Junpei-Psyche | Pine-shotty-TML
Khan-Junpei-DV | Pine-shotty-TML

Khan-Junpei-Shotty | Pine-TML-Psyche
Khan-Junpei-Shotty | Pine-TML-DV

Khan-Junpei-TML | Pine-shotty-Psyche
Khan-Junpei-TML | Pine-shotty-DV

The thing which tipped me off to Khan-Junpei-Macros was, of course, Junpei's stubborn refusal to give a read. And in that refusal, he gave himself away, as it let me in on the final piece of the puzzle. In truth, asking him to answer for a read was little more than a formality Edited 04-29-2012 03:07 PM
to confirm what I already knew--Macros was his scumbuddy, alongside with Khan.

Wrapup:

-"Why'd you continue the line of thought with Junpei if you had already made up your mind?" Well, multiple reasons.
*I am far from infalliable. I could have been wrong, and had Junpei just been stubborn town, then when he posted his read, it might have changed my opinion.
*In addition to that, it'd help me when making a case against Junpei, as the more he posted his refusal to read, the further it'd help prove he was scum.
*The more he continued to refuse giving the read, the stronger my read became. While I was initially skeptical (and in fact concluded that--because there was only ONE possible combination where Macros was scum--that Macros was probably town), every time Junpei refused only strengthened the read.

-"Was the whole Junpei case a bluff, then?" Heck no. I'm not unvoting him, now, am I? Yeah, that means the case is very much real.

-"What does that mean of Psyche and DV?" Well, believe it or not, they're town, because of my scumteams above.

-"Couldn't you be wrong about one of your other scumreads?" Well, yes, I could--and in fact, I haven't at all investigated the likelihood of a Pine-shotty-TML scumteam; their scumteam is the weak link in my reads, since I was focusing on Khan, Junpei, and Macros to prove or disprove that team.

-"That's nice and all, but can we have reasoning on the other five?" At this very moment, no, but I'll do what I can. As I said, I'll make the Junpei case in the way I stated before, and probably will summarize a case against Khan as well (they will be similar in nature). Pine, shotty, and TML are lower priorities, since I haven't actually done my research on 'em yet and you never make a case you do not believe fully in.

-"Why'd you spring the case now, rather than waiting longer?" I figured that I basically had already hinted too strongly at where I was heading. Anyone who knows my style at all could figure out that I was heading this way with my inquiries towards Junpei and Khan about Macros. Heck, even people who DON'T know me probably could have guessed as much; I'm not exactly good at being subtle. There really wasn't much point in waiting when they might have already figured out what I was going to do--and even if they didn't, I don't think I'd be able to get much more out of Junpei than what I already got.

Any other questions?

[Nero Cain]

put those 6 in strongest to weakest. If we lynch Jun today and you're wrong will you help me lynch TML tomorrow?

[mastin2]

Clarification:

-"Is that all you have against Macros?" Mostly, but not entirely; I can think of a few other points, but I think I conveyed the important reasons.

-"Where's the Junpei case?" It hasn't be typed, yet. I've been working elsewhere, so haven't had the time to begin--yet alone, finish--it, yet. I'd love to post it as an immediate followthrough, but I haven't typed a single word on it. Sorry.

-"Why are Pine, shotty, and TML not as well-researched as your other scumteam?" I was focusing on nailing a single scumteam down, so that I could work from there. (Actually, my focus was originally on getting six names, and working from those six to see which team made the most sense, but I realized that method wasn't going to work as well.) I nailed Khan-Junpei-Macros, which led to the above post, so I posted that.

-"And what are you going to do to further that second scumteam?" After I've done my research, I'll give an update on the Pine-shotty-TML scumteam I've formed, to see if it still holds true. It was formed by process of elimination, after all, not by actual connections between them. If it changes, I'll give the updated second scumteam along with the reasons why. If it remains the same, I'll form a case beyond process of elimination to explain why I think they're still the second scumteam.

-"Why so much scumhunting based off of interactions when we don't have a scumflip?" This point needs to be addressed in multiple pieces. Most important to least important...
*The only read in there based off of interactions is actually Macros. The rest were all people I found individually scummy, from Khan to Junpei to Pine to shotty to TML. So really, the scumteams I've formed aren't made up of ENOUGH interactions.
*Sometimes, we don't get the luxury of a scumflip. You can help out by voting Junpei if you want one, though.
*Interactions are just the main way I scumhunt. Khan himself noted that it's my strongsuit when it comes to scumhunting. Regardless of whether you think it works or not, or whether you think it's a wise idea, it's the way that I tend to work best, and it often works for me.

-"Can you put the scumreads in order from strongest to weakest?"

I already did, actually, in said post, basically:

SCUM:
Kublai Khan Man
Pine
Junpei

shotty
The Mini-Librarian
[Macros]

With one minor adjustment; my Junpei scumread is now stronger than my Pine scumread.

Yes, Khan remains my strongest scumread, but I don't have any hopes of getting Khan lynched today. The only way I'll be getting Khan lynched is by pointing out his play in the long-run, and showing how it consistently furthers a scum agenda. In particular, how he's connected to Junpei and Macros. A Junpei scumflip, for instance, would be incredibly condemning to Khan.

[mastin2]

If we lynch Jun today and you're wrong will you help me lynch TML tomorrow?

Regardless of whether I'm right or wrong on Junpei, I'd most likely be willing to help you lynch TML. I can't give a guarantee (see also: me needing to research the Pine-shotty-TML scumteam; combine that with the fact that I'd need to see where I went wrong if Junpei somehow DID flip town), but it is a likelihood.

[Nero Cain]

Why is Pine scum with Shotty and not the GI/Prae slot? Remember that GI came in the game and called Shotty scum.

[Nero Cain]

I'm pretty confident in TML scum, perhaps we should lynch him today?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Mastin,

If Khan is your strongest scum read, why have you been voting Pine and Junpei instead?

[mastin2]

At first, it was trusting in Antihero's meta of shotty, that this was shotty-scum, rather than shotty-town. Then I went and looked at shotty's contribution in iso (was looking at Macros interactions at the time). It didn't actually look like the play of a VI at all, to me. It looked like the play of someone furthering a scum agenda. He jumped onto the easy Nero bandwagon, not using original reasoning, basically attacking an easy target. His reasoning also didn't sound like he really believed it. Note.

So what I gather form all this is that, either
A) you know something that the rest of us don't, and you are town, why?:
or,
B) You are mafia and know that I am town, but don't want to seem over eager to lynch someone, why?:

Personally I think it's B

The bolded is the important part. Note his non-commital stance; he's saying he thinks it's B, but he's not devoting himself to it being true for sure.

This

I'm just not seeing rack as all to scummy atm.
Also with psych, I think he may just be bad, or not know how to play, but wants to act like he can. His attitude is coming off more arrogant than it is scummy.

...Looks like an attempt to get cheap towncred as well, by defending two people shotty knows to be town.

And here

What was the point of this Nero?
It's never pro-town to rebut with that statement.
Why do you want me to shut up? Because I suspect you?
How about we give reasons not blanket statements.

He doesn't look like he really believes Nero to be scum at all with the way he's addressing him.

There's not much in shotty's iso, but it's enough to have gotten a scumread on him. Like I said, I see no VI; I see someone who looks legitimately scummy.

[mastin2]

If Khan is your strongest scum read, why have you been voting Pine and Junpei instead?

I haven't voted Pine since yesterday; before I moved my vote to Junpei, my vote was on Khan. As to why I'm not pursuing a Khan lynch right now...

Yes, Khan remains my strongest scumread, but I don't have any hopes of getting Khan lynched today. The only way I'll be getting Khan lynched is by pointing out his play in the long-run, and showing how it consistently furthers a scum agenda. In particular, how he's connected to Junpei and Macros. A Junpei scumflip, for instance, would be incredibly condemning to Khan.

That's not to say I won't be giving reasoning as to why Khan's scum and in fact my strongest scumread (I fully intend to). It's just that I don't think I could make ANY case which is convincing enough to lynch Kublai Khan Man until after we have a scumflip to prove what I'm saying has merit.

[HezLucky]

The Scumteams are {Kublai Khan, Junpei, Macross} and {Pine, shotty, The Mini-Librarian}.

Yes because you can CLEARLY pick out every member of every scumteam. ALL of them are playing SO POORLY. It's not like anyone is slipping under the cracks -_-

[If you can't read into sarcasm it means I doubt anyone's ability to pick out a scumteam, much less two, that is THIS obvious. All the people mentioned have been suspected at some point]

This is what led me to be a little bit suspicious of his lack of content on most players--by focusing on only a few players at once, he'd further a scum agenda. Furthermore, he never changed his vote, despite new content having appeared, also preventing much insight from being gained.

You claim you are unfamiliar with the site meta of old players and then you go on to hold it against Macros.

Holy shit, Mastin, I read part of your post. Man, you are full of it.

Having actually been AROUND during those days, no, I don't think you are describing any sort of "classic scum play". You are praying on the fact that most people here weren't around in those days and claiming something that you can't prove. THAT is a scum ploy.

Not even reading the rest.

FOS: mastin2

My vote has better places to be right now.

[Pine]

Fuck it.

Mod: I'll stick around for now.

Unvote
Vote: Mastin

[Psyche]

I was going to ignore this page devoted to mastin, but since it might be scummy...

[Kublai Khan]

@mastin2 - I can tolerate you calling me scum (because you were going to do so regardless of whatever roles we got), but I won't tolerate you calling me a shitty scumhunter. Drop your shitty tactic of pre-flip guilt-by-associating and fucking look at Nero Cain in isolation. There is no fucking way that he's town.

[Nero Cain]

just like Rack and Vijay were not town.

[Code_X]

This is all distracting from redFF's disappearance.

[Nero Cain]

I'm not worried about him yet. I want psyche or TML blood today.

[Code_X]

Mastin - can you point me in direction of a couple of recently completed games where you have been town and scum.

Likewise KK.

Thanks.

[drmyshotgun]

So Pine is back. And he runs for Mastin.
The mod didn't answer the Mason question but I guess there's no more need to get an answer to that, right?

[Firestarter]

Prod induced post.

Contribution in the next day or so.

[Nero Cain]

@code-it would be faster to just click their name and then click on "view their topics"

[drmyshotgun]

^Oh, he exists.

[Code_X]

@code-it would be faster to just click their name and then click on "view their topics"

Ah ok cheers. Will check that out. Ta