Mini #1317- Game Over!

[DCLXVI]

You're demoralized after just replacing in? Or just trying to stifle discussion? It's a sisyphean task after 13 posts? (Not Game Related) I like that phrase and may use it in other games when the situation warrents!)

Pot calling kettle black. You're the one going all existentialist on us.

[jon_h61]

After reading the article on confirmation bias on Wikipedia I'm going to reread Haze's ISO to see if I'm just looking for ways to make him look guilty, instead of trying to see IF he really is guilty.
I feel even more lost now than before.

[deadjoker]

At this point it is clear that DCL and Jon are not both scum. No way a scumteam would allow the only two wagons to be on both of them, a counter wagon would have been started elsewhere. Instead they are ripping each other to shreads.

In fact, the wagons on both of them may very well be scum driven. At the very least there is one scum lurking in the shadows.

DCL/username makes the most sense. Early bussing with a transition to Jon.

If neither Jon or DCL are scum, then two of the following three are scum:

Username
Thez
Haze

VOTE: Username

[jon_h61]

@ DCL Yeah, I guess I am, I mainly was wanting to use IAAUN's word. I think it has a nice ring to it. I had to google it to see what it meant. Kinda childish, I know. sisyphean

I spend WAY too much time looking for scum and decided to not take it so seriously.

[Haze]

Wow the flow of the game is reversing.

Deadline probably shouldn't have dragged on so long.

I have assignments atm so I really can't catch up. Sorry.

Regardless, I will say this.

Hold your course, fools. Somebody should hammer, and the flip will be better for town before we devolve into a pool of paranoia, doubt and suspicion.

[jon_h61]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: imausername

[thezmon221]

At this point it is clear that DCL and Jon are not both scum.

No way a scumteam would allow the only two wagons to be on both of them, a counter wagon would have been started elsewhere. Instead they are ripping each other to shreads.

Yeah, probably. I really doubt that DCL would have started a Counter-BW on jon when feeling heat if they were buddies. I still think at least one of them is scum.

@ thez I know what AtE stood for, but I went to the Wiki to try to get a feel for why you (and joker) complain about me using them.

The first thing I didn't like was how in the Wiki it is listed as a

fallacious

argument. It then goes on to say it's used by all factions in most/all games.

WELL, ATT I'm not aware of them being AtEs and I'm just responding to previous posts. I feel the accusations are a little unfair, kinda like I'm having goads put on me limiting me to only a certain set of responses that will be accepted in certain situations. I apologize, and will TRY to stay more on the side of analysis over emotion.

Yeah, but if you use it consistently to get people to second-guess themselves, that's definitely scum-motivated. I'm not as worried about the AtE as I am of the consistent use of it.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: imausername

Care to elaborate? Or are you just piggybacking joker?

[thezmon221]

Might I ask, joker, why would you vote for IAAUN when you still think that either jon or DCL is scum? You said they cannot be a scumteam, but you went on to mention that a DCL/IAAUN team is very possible, and go on to lynch IAAUN with little regard to a DCL lynch, which has already developed.

However, I do have to echo you in saying that after I have thought about it, a DCL/IAAUN scum team makes sense. IAAUN falling back and jumping off the wagon when it's just getting heated up definitely does point a finger in his direction. If DCL is scum, why would IAAUN jump off his top read? If IAAUN is scum, why would he jump off of a developing BW? That interaction itself lends me to believe that the two of them are the most likely scum team.

[deadjoker]

Might I ask, joker, why would you vote for IAAUN when you still think that either jon or DCL is scum? You said they cannot be a scumteam, but you went on to mention that a DCL/IAAUN team is very possible, and go on to lynch IAAUN with little regard to a DCL lynch, which has already developed.

However, I do have to echo you in saying that after I have thought about it, a DCL/IAAUN scum team makes sense. IAAUN falling back and jumping off the wagon when it's just getting heated up definitely does point a finger in his direction. If DCL is scum, why would IAAUN jump off his top read? If IAAUN is scum, why would he jump off of a developing BW? That interaction itself lends me to believe that the two of them are the most likely scum team.

Because I don't think DCL is scum. After thinking about it more, why would username come flying out of the gates and attack his partner when neither he nor DCL had any serious heat on them? Scum hate attention, so why generate a metric ton of it unnecessarily?

However, starting two bandwagons on town makes sense. Get town focused on two mislynches, take a backseat and watch. With no one looking elsewhere, it is only a matter of time before one falls. Almost worked.

[DCLXVI]

My apologies thez for drudging this back up. But since you are now tying me with IAAUN I feel this needs to be addressed from another angle.

Three people off of me, Jon, Thez, and you Viktyr all had said you thought I was scum. From my own perspective I thought at that point my lynch going to happen fairly quickly. My wagon was by no means falling apart, and even with IAAUN off is still rather strong.

To me that fact that he

[IAAUN]

left a strong wagon suggests that he is not scum. scum would stay put and see my lynch follow through.

This is pretty solid reasoning, and partly why I doubt his

[IAAUN's]

scumminess.

Summery: Thez says DCL has good reasoning in calling IAAUN town. Thez does not find IAAUN suspicious.

Now, let us move on to this quote:

However, I do have to echo you in saying that after I have thought about it, a DCL/IAAUN scum team makes sense. IAAUN falling back and jumping off the wagon when it's just getting heated up definitely does point a finger in his direction. If DCL is scum, why would IAAUN jump off his top read? If IAAUN is scum, why would he jump off of a developing BW? That interaction itself lends me to believe that the two of them are the most likely scum team.

So, Thez goes from calling my reasoning about IAAUN being town (because of how he left my wagon) to be good.

Now he flips and says IAAUN is scum because of how he left my wagon.

Thoughts on this?

[iamausername]

If neither Jon or DCL are scum, then two of the following three are scum:

Username
Thez
Haze

hi, deadjoker. there's an antihero-sized hole in your list. bye, deadjoker.

[iamausername]

Thoughts on this?

my thoughts:

UNVOTE: jon
VOTE: thezmon

[deadjoker]

If neither Jon or DCL are scum, then two of the following three are scum:

Username
Thez
Haze

hi, deadjoker. there's an antihero-sized hole in your list. bye, deadjoker.

Hi username. Antihero is obv town. There is a whyivotedthez hole in your last post. Bye username.

[iamausername]

hi deadjoker.

thez asking DCL who he will target if jon flips town does not serve any scumhunting purpose whatsoever. the purpose it serves is to make DCL think about scum outside of jon, and therefore to halt the wagon on jon.

this is distinctly at odds with the following claims that thez has made:

I'm willing to lynch either jon or DCL.

You are my top scumread, DCL, but jon does take a close second. I would be happy to lynch either.

I am starting to get more of a feeling for voting for jon.

he thinks DCL and jon are scum, but he asks DCL a question that assumes jon is town. and he doesn't just ask it once; when DCL says something along the lines of 'I'll think about that if it happens', jon does not accept this and demands a more concrete answer. this was not merely a bit of idle curiosity on thez's part; he really, really wanted DCL to think about who else might be mafia besides jon.

thez really wants one of his top scumreads to have a good long think about what he would do if his other top scumread flipped town. does not compute.

conclusion: thez is not being sincere in at least one of the statements he has made. either he does not really think jon is scum (because he knows jon is town) or he does not really want jon lynched (because jon is his partner).

bye deadjoker.

[thezmon221]

Thoughts on this?

That a lot of things can happen in 50 posts? Sometimes you'll reconsider what you initially thought scummy/town and see it the other way.

For instance: At first sometimes jon's hammer on Monkey (and maybe a bit on hoko) seemed alright because of the reasoning and declaring intent. But some people have already stated that it seems to be at least a slightly scummy trend. Granted, that's not 50 posts, but it's still parallel.

Another instance: You think things over over the night and decide, "Hey, he's not actually all that bad of a guy..." And I'm saying that this is the case before Night Actions are turned in, and even in No Lynch scenarios it has happened.

Oh look, yet ANOTHER instance: Legitimate flip-flopping. The first one was a very long time, the second was perhaps with no posts in between, but this one can be with short amounts of posts, or even this amount. I'm not talking about randomly going from one vote to another, I'm talking about being incapable of deciding who is the scummiest of said people (as was the case with me in the beginning, and to a significantly lesser extent right now). In fact, this instance right now, where IAAUN has automatically flipped ship within a few posts.

I'm just stating what I think right now. And may I say another thing now, DCL. If I doubt somebody's scumminess, that doesn't mean I am incapable of thinking they are scum. And I didn't specifically say he was clear-cut scum, or even that it was a strong read. Just that that would be an interaction I'd consider in the event you turn up scum... and maybe if you turn up town.

Hi username.

Antihero is obv town.

There is a whyivotedthez hole in your last post. Bye username.

Since when? And how? And why?

thez really wants one of his top scumreads to have a good long think about what he would do if his other top scumread flipped town. does not compute.

I mean... I'm looking for interaction. What is there not to get? It's actually rather uncommon for scum to believe that another scum is their top read. Especially if neither are under a decent amount of heat, and DCL probably doesn't feel much heat at all.

However, may I commend you, IAAUN. You talk very little, and in fact haven't talked in almost 2 days. Then, your name gets mentioned a bit, and you "all of a sudden" come back, and then vote for me. Care to do a little less lurking and a little more scumhunting?

[iamausername]

i'm doing plenty of scumhunting

thanks for your concern

[thezmon221]

No problem, I just thought I'd mention that.

[jon_h61]

In my first game on Mafiascum.net (My first game of Mafia ever) a replacemant came in, had a few "reads", then pretty much lurked intil I convinced everyone he needed rope. He was a goon. Maybe had a little to do with my overconfidence at the start of this game, but I could see correlations between this game and that. Prob a bad use of meta, but it looks very similar. IF IAAUN was around more, maybe I might change my opinion.

Reasons I find Mafia so confusing

1 Politeness translates into being scummie
2 Courtesy becomes paranoia
3 Lots of things that people say are scummie that leave me scratching my head

I dunno, that's why I read MD so much, and lately I've been studying up on logical fallicies. Maybe when I return in the fall, I'll be a better scum hunter. More than anything I'm looking forward to post game conversation and hope several people stick around for it.

@ Thez Don't think of this as an AtE, but just me revealing a little about myself.

@ IAAUN That quote you gave me so much heat over. I copy and pasted it, put quotations before and after it, then made my comment. I didn't even notice I'd missed part of it. That's why I was flabbergasted by such a forceful accusation.

Here is the complete quote from your spoiler on joker:

As I said above, I'm usually wary of people whose reads don't seem to change from one day to the next, but deadjoker's tunnel vision on Thez doesn't bother me nearly as much as DLC's carefully crafted consistency, because it's really just the one read (Thez drove the wagon on Monkey) that none of the flips so far should have given him any particular reason to change. Unlike DLC's "deadjoker is scum with Monkey. Oh, Monkey was town? deadjoker is scum defending Monkey for towncred" bullshit.

You said I changed the punctuation??? And changed the meaning??? To what????? For What purpose????

Here was my response:

In Ima's ISO of joker he said "As I said above, I'm usually wary of people whose reads don't seem to change from one day to the next, but deadjoker's tunnel vision on Thez doesn't bother me nearly as much as DLC's carefully crafted consistency, because it's really just the one read (Thez drove the wagon on Monkey) that none of the flips so far should have given him any particular reason to change. Unlike DLC's "deadjoker is scum with Monkey"
He then turns around and says in my ISO "When you're town, you either believe a claim or you don't. You don't think about whether your belief might change at some point in the future. That's not how belief works. This is why you'll never hear someone say "I believe in God, for now".
Like I said earlier it seems like he is selectively using posts to make things "appear" scummy rather than actual scum hunting.

I accidently missed the period when I copy/pasted, must be why I put one after the quotes.

You came back with:

First, why did you cut the end off of


"deadjoker is scum with Monkey. Oh, Monkey was town? deadjoker is scum defending Monkey for towncred" bullshit.

? You replaced the quotation mark, so this clearly wasn't accidental. Is it because including the whole quote would make it obvious that the point you were attacking was not the point I was making?

Second, I was not saying "you are scummy for changing your opinion" like you seem to be implying here. I was saying the words "@ Monkey I'll believe you for now" that you said strike me as suspect because you're anticipating your own change of opinion, and I don't think people do that with real opinions.

Town players change their opinions in response to new information. DLC is scummy because new information didn't seem to affect his opinions. jon is scummy because he's talking about changing his opinion before any new information has arrived.

There is no contradiction here.

I got the WHOLE thing so there can be no misunderstandings. You're trying to make a MOUNTAIN out of a molehill.

[DCLXVI]

@jon, plz use quotes like normal people. I'll be honest, it is a pain trying to read that.

[jon_h61]

Apologies, I had posted them into a text document to try to find the offense. I guess I got lazy, I just copied them back out of the document to put on the thread.

[iamausername]

You said I changed the punctuation??? And changed the meaning??? To what????? For What purpose????

You didn't just change the punctuation, you cut off most of the sentence. You changed:

Unlike DLC's "deadjoker is scum with Monkey. Oh, Monkey was town? deadjoker is scum defending Monkey for towncred" bullshit.

to

Unlike DLC's "deadjoker is scum with Monkey"

to make it look like I was contradicting myself when I wasn't. Or I guess by some wild fluke of typing where a bunch of words inside quotation marks magically disappear while the quotation marks stay intact?

[jon_h61]

I put the quotation marks before and after the pasted quote. They didn't start out there. Notice the missing period, that was where my copy left off. Besides I cut to the period, I didn't cut into any sentence. Yeah my offense was missing the end off the quote, but I'm still not seeing how this is making me misrepresent you, or changing the point I was trying to make. I'd be more convinced if you'd said that my case and joker's (which you were using to make a point on DCL) were seperate and unrelated. I know admitting you're wrong is like throwing chum to sharks, but I made a lot of mistakes this game I hope I don't make a habit of repeating in the future, like the Monkey debacle.

I just checked out my stats on hitting scum on lynches, and I'm at 40% ATM. Thez's stats baffle me every time I see them. Is it really possible to win that often?

[thezmon221]

So, let me get this straight, first, before you as questions. I cut out the other part of jon's post because instead of intervening on that conversation, I'd rather have the two of them handle it.

In my first game on Mafiascum.net (My first game of Mafia ever) a replacemant came in, had a few "reads", then pretty much lurked intil I convinced everyone he needed rope. He was a goon. Maybe had a little to do with my overconfidence at the start of this game, but I could see correlations between this game and that. Prob a bad use of meta, but it looks very similar. IF IAAUN was around more, maybe I might change my opinion.

It's not very supportive. I mean, it's easier for replacements to hide than the original members, particularly the later they are put in. So, lots of scum replacements will hide, but lots won't either. You COULD use that more as a player tell, but not necessarily a clear-cut scum tell.

Reasons I find Mafia so confusing

1 Politeness translates into being scummie
2 Courtesy becomes paranoia
3 Lots of things that people say are scummie that leave me scratching my head

#s 1 and 2 are more of player tells. I try to be as polite as possible, but if I get into an argument with someone and certain circumstances are reached, such as the manipulation of posts (as the case with joker), I'll start to mistakenly use ad hominem. I try to avoid it, but sometimes it comes out. So #1 doesn't necessarily apply to everyone, and I know it doesn't apply to me.

I just checked out my stats on hitting scum on lynches, and I'm at 40% ATM. Thez's stats baffle me every time I see them. Is it really possible to win that often?

Well, I now have 20 wins as town, thanks to a game I JUST finished up. It's possible to win that much, or lose that much. It depends on what your niche is in mafia, and how well you perform with said niche. Mine is more of the smaller, themed/normal games. Usually no more than 12-15. I tend to use more meta on the other site than I use here, so I had to make the transition here. So far I'm 2-1 with this game still there. This game could still easily go either way. scum needs 2 Mislynches (or mislynch and no lynch) and we need 2 lynches, or any PRs that we have to get the right targets.

In regards to stats on hitting scum, the ideal % is AT LEAST 50% when you're playing town. When you're mafia/third-party it doesn't really matter. So, you're not too far off. If we find scum today, that puts us in a phenomenal position tomorrow. But if we mislynch today, it's not the end of the world.

[jon_h61]

@ Thez That's why I said it was probably bad use of meta, or maybe better stated as "what I've seen before".

[deadjoker]

Hi username. Me voting you was mostly a reaction fish. I am a little concerned that you came back so quickly after getting mentioned, but nothing near the amount of suspicion I have for Jon and thez right now. You are right about thez. Bye username.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Jon

Jon's quick jump is scummy as all hell. DCL stayed firm, meaning he truly thinks he has found scum, which he is right. Jon ran away real fast, indicating he knew he wasn't voting for scum. Very likely his vote change was nervous scum. Plus his recent play has been very, very strange. He is talking meta, AtE drops all over the place, and what appears to be misrepping.

I'd be fine voting for with thez, too, but Jon has more votes on him right now.