Mini 1310: I Got My Eye On You Mafia (Game Over!)

[ActionDan]

Actually thinking about it, the strangest thing this game is iStark claiming to track Moi nowhere N2 and Moi countering that.

As much as POE incriminates Lucky in about 3000 different ways, cases are always nice.

[Luckyjt]

Lets look at what will happen if you lynch me. I will come up as town. This will leave 4 players alive. 1 would be scum. ActionDan would most likely end up dead leaving RD, Moi and CSL. If Moi is town he will confirm one of them as town. If he is scum MOi will frame one of them. If Moi is scum it is basically over for town. Now if MOi is town, the town basically win this game. Lets say i get lynched and Ad killed tomorrow. Moi will get a result on either RD and CSL and will basically be one of them as scum. They will get lynched.

So I think those two are the scenarios. maybe scum let AD live which would be great for the town.

Its up to you guys to decide since it seems like my word has no value now since I have all 3 of you thinking I am scum. My biggest bet is that RD is scum and if Im wrong there than good luck town finding the last scum.

[ActionDan]

Perhaps the non-confirmed town lurkers need more motivation.

Here's a debriefing as to the state of the game.

Spoiler:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=442J1ASPseQ

[MagnaofIllusion]

yay MoI actually made the right pick for a target

PoE is a powerful tool. And after iStark’s death a negative result from Dan combined with a Nightkill absolutely confirms him (to me at least) regardless of Om’s alignment.

If CSL was a GF he would have killed MoI instead of OOTN, as only way he got in trouble was if Lucky got checked meaning it WIFOMed to him or a GF already existing while MoI could have flat out busted him. Plus really, CSL to have no nowhere means it basically needs to tracker-ninja-goon with the counter role (ninja) being aimed at the non copied town role.

Actually there are equal numbers of Town ‘sensing’ Investigation roles as there are Town ‘alignment determining’ Investigation roles –

Om and Amrun – Cops

Vijay and myself – Voyeur and Follower

I have some thoughs about the set-up that I will want to get into after I finish my re-read.

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Actually thinking about it, the strangest thing this game is iStark claiming to track Moi nowhere N2 and Moi countering that.

I have a theory on that but want to re-read the flow of how Om revealed his results compared to how iStark claimed his to be sure it makes sense.

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Feirei, regardless of how cleared, needs to get in here and post.

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Luckyjt ISO review thoughts

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Post 122 – Luckyjt responds to a post by iStark (Post 119). It’s a very casual interaction that doesn’t have any sorts of indication that they are scum-hunting each other.

Post 128 – Both flipped scum are in luckyJT’s Null reads.

Post 201 – This I noticed in that Luckyjt clears Deltawave as he doesn’t think scum would claim Miller as Delta did.

@Luckyjt – Is there any reason other than PoE that Rainbow is now your top pick for scum after you cleared that slot early?

Post 516 – This twigged my scumdar the first time I read. Luckyjt hypoclaims two negative results – iStark being ‘followed’ to a kill and Rainbowdash lying. Yet he shows no sign of following up on them. I’m not sure the motive Town would have to concoct two results that indicate being scum in a hypoclaim that came from non-scum suspects.

Post 550 – I am back and forth on this post. It reads as baiting an investigation (I don’t like that Amrun didn’t pick me) but that really isn’t viable given that Om was killed over me which I feel is Town motivated. On the other hand we see him calling out the fact that Town doesn’t likely have a Doc. Which scum would be in a much better position to speculate on given their overall better understanding of the set-up.

Post 552 – Gives an indication that he finds iStark scummy with no associated questioning or reasoning. Possible distancing given he doesn’t really follow-up on it.

Post 825 – His “I think scum are hiding in the PR claims” is odd given it happened just before iStark claimed Town Tracker. I’m not sure scum who knows what iStark’s role is would be laying that suspicion out there.

Post 840 and Post 849 – These really don’t make sense coming from scum partners to RB and iStark.

Post 907 – Mild back and forth with iStark after he was already outed as scum. Possible late distancing?

Conclusion –

I see conflicting signs in his ISO. He does have tons of tell-tale newb-scum tells (absolutely ignores RBan’s slot and throws down mild distancing from iStark, possible tipping of hand on inside information). On the other hand I see a few posts that don’t make much sense from a scum perspective.

Up next is Rainbowdash / Delta.

[Luckyjt]

My reasoning why Rd is my top scum. The miller thing you talked about that I said was true, but Its odd Rd is still alive and there are barely any people left. AD is confirm and apparently CSL is confirmed even though Im confused with this one. Now there is you and RD. There is no way we will lynch you because if you are town you are really needed t find the last scum. Which then again leaves RD as my top scum pick for lynching today.

[Voidedmafia]

Feirei has been prodded. I accidentally prodded iStark and Om, too, so you can laugh at that.

[ActionDan]

Request:

since MoI and RD know each relatively well (I think anyway), can you both tell me breifly whether you think the other is playing towards a more or less town meta.

[Feirei]

I wake up to a prod to the face.

Nothing more to say than has already been said. I don't see MoI as scum at all.

With AD being conftown, and Rainbow being more town simply by his way of speaking, I see Lucky as scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Delta / Rainbowdash ISO –

I take it from my re-read that the Miller claim occurred in the archives …

Post 27 – Gives iStark ‘scumpoints’ for Post 19 but doesn’t vote him.. Apparently that was for voting him. Not sure if it is awkward distancing or not.

Post 246 – Here he replaces out and labels Korlash and Lucky as gut scum reads. The fact that he doesn’t include iStark despite him earning scum-points at 27 seems suspect.

Post 273 – Replace in Town and Scum reads are specifically do not contain either flipped scum.

Question Rainbow – why did you specify specifically ‘Cop and Gunsmith’ as the hypo options?

Post 275 – This post at least rings true from the standpoint that I know the game in questions (it was not that old) and he was indeed a Town character as described.

Post 294 – In light of the way the claim of the role was handled I don’t like the Rolefishing attack on Iceguy here.

Post 296 and Post 297 – I’ll leave my judgment on these posts until Rainbow answers my question above.

Post 301 – Non-Null reads still does not include iStark or RBan’s slot.

Post 311, Post 313 and Post 320 – This sequence is very, very suspect in my mind. In 311 he reaffirms that he is happy with his CSL vote.

In 313 he says “I have no faith in the competence of other ponies at this point. Everything needs to be as simply spelled out as possible if not simpler.”

Then three quick votes come in succession from iStark, OM and Malth on his top suspect. His response is to unvote quickly and only question the two flipped Town about their votes. iStark is not mentioned. Very suspect. Espcially given that Rainbow never actually made a CSL case himself. In fact he specifically calls CSL a ‘Policy Lynch’ in 273.

Post 323 – Asks iStark a question about choosing between V2V and CSL as lynches. Yet there is no follow-up at all to iStark’s response (which comes at Post 375).

Post 328 – He he reaffirms that ‘speed of the wagon’ was his sole reason for not liking the wagon on CSL. He does mention that iStark was on that tail end.

Post 363 – First direct interaction with BB / RBan slots I can see. Also out of the blue suggests that he’s “wierded out” by the events of the Day and suggests a PowerLynch on Lopsy who hasn’t appeared in his ISO to this juncture. And makes the following statement –

My mane problem here is that im not sure if we can even do anything BUT lyching CSL at this point... I just really think that late part of the wagon on him is more likely than not scum. This just happened way too fast for me to be comfortable with it. While I do know that its possible for wagons to spring up out of nowhere on scum, is just really rare, and the lack of a case makes me think that the slot is derpy (like half this BUCKING GAME) but is town.

I don’t like this on a gut level at all. He fence-sitting on CSL right at deadline … softly supporting it (I don’t know if we can do anything else) while saying he will probably not flip scum.

Post 427 – At a gut level the phrase “This day is going to suck I think” gives me the sense of scum positioning for ‘Town cred” given that neither of the flipped scum were in any danger of hanging.

Post 441 – Prods BBmolla to resolve “where your vote is going”.

Post 476 – Very much dislike this “Amrun’s claim doesn’t make sense based on my role PM” post. It leaves the possibility open that he can push for a Amrun lynch on what we now know to be poor grounds.

Post 517 – I wonder about this given 273. Was there significant discussion about Hypo-claiming that didn’t show up in this ISO read I am missing from someone?

Post 539 – The following –

Me/CSL/Korlash are town

I want to say AD and lucky too, will be surprised if more than one scum in those ponies.

So Ice/Lopsy/OOTN/molia/Amrun/Stark is where I am at right now. Im not intereted in molia or Amrun lynches today. I could swing to Ice but I think he is more likely poor town instead of scum. Lopsy and Stark bug me a whole lot on gut, but OOTN is legit scummy.

CSL is now ‘Town’. The PoE list shows both flipped scum in his suspect pool but he is ‘not interested’ in BBMolla and puts iStark at a nebulous ‘bugs me’ level.

Post 611 – Again asks iStark to justify a vote and does not follow-up (response was at Post 615.

Post 735 – Once again PoEs both BBmolla and iStark as scum and moves at someone else (in this case Iceguy).

Post 799 – Begins Day 3 with his ‘gambit’ on iStark. I will need to review the Om / iStark interactions (from early Day 2) before I conclude on this.

Post 833 – Tries to clear iStark as Town based on the Tracker claim and his response to the ‘Miller’ claim. The reasoning for this is predicated, of course, on Rainbowdash being Town.

Post 846 – He finally votes the RBan slot after RBan’s busted fake-claim.

Post 886 – First post of Day 4. Avoids directly commenting on the iStark versus MoI back and forth that started Day 3 and asks for ‘tabulated results’. Possible waiting out to see which way Town would fall on our 1v1.

Post 917 – I’m noting this for later after my run-downs are complete. The timing of iStark’s self-hammer right after Rainbowdash voted for him gives my gut more roiling.

And that leads us back to today.

Conclusion – After seeing both this slot and Lucky’s back to back ISOs I’m much more inclinded to believe Rainbowdash is the last scum over Lucky. I still need to look at CSL / Feirei and look at the Om / iStark interactions surrounding Day 2.

[ActionDan]

^
that's pretty good.

[Rainbowdash]

If im going to get lynched, let me put together exactly who I want to get lynched tomorrow.

[Rainbowdash]

@MoI - Do you believe that I am a goon or something else?

unvote

[Rainbowdash]

Awesome, MoI is on... lets get a back and forth going.

I have a good half hour here.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be LA from today at 4:30pm EDT until Monday AM for my usual weekend family duties.

If im going to get lynched, let me put together exactly who I want to get lynched tomorrow.

Why is this your reaction when exactly zero votes are on you IIRC?

@MoI - Do you believe that I am a goon or something else?

unvote

I think you are clearly not a Goon. That should be pretty clear as evidenced by the flips. Once I finish my re-reads I will place my vote.

Also - if you didn’t notice I had a few questions to you in that post. Please answer them.

[Rainbowdash]

MOD – I’ll be LA from today at 4:30pm EDT until Monday AM for my usual weekend family duties.

If im going to get lynched, let me put together exactly who I want to get lynched tomorrow.

Why is this your reaction when exactly zero votes are on you IIRC?

Because you/AD/lucky are already essentially voting me. Im not derpy - I can read intentions.

@MoI - Do you believe that I am a goon or something else?

unvote

I think you are clearly not a Goon. That should be pretty clear as evidenced by the flips. Once I finish my re-reads I will place my vote.

[/quote]

Ok so your arguement is going to be that Delta-PR claimed a complicated miller role, followed by both teammates (Mist and Stark) trying to get him lynched for it. After that I forced my parter to come out in a claim after there already was two cop and voyeur claims. Finally I actually killed a cop over you, where as scum all I needed to do was hold back, kill you, lynch whatever of OOTN didnt investigate, kill him and then im in a F3 with AD and whatever of lucky/CSL didnt get investigated.

Seriously im not derpy. If I was scum you were the only legitimate threat to me. Leaving OOTN alive likely got whoever didnt get investigated lynched, followed by killing anypony leaving it open to GF threats in AD, OOTN fakeclaiming, or last one being scum.

Also - if you didn’t notice I had a few questions to you in that post. Please answer them.

Cop and gunsmith were to cover two different bases at once. In an investigative heavy game, gunsmith make sense to add false positives.

Out of curiosity, you ignore all flipped scum to me interactions. Why?

[Rainbowdash]

Ugh, I think it actually is MoI.

[ActionDan]

RD, would you really think as scum that CSL was lynchable?

[Rainbowdash]

In the event that OOTN came in with a not mafia result on Lucky, yes I think CSL may have been lynchable. It would have been difficult but that door would have been cracked open a bit.

MoI scum is rough to deal with, the only way I have caught him in the past is to think like scum from his shoes. I have caught him once as scum simply going through things thinking "what would I do in this situation as scum?" and his actions matched up with what my moves would be.

Play it from the day MoI came into the game from his shoes. Stark claiming MoI did nothing was really odd, its obvious that Stark had no need to lie, so he had three things he could have tried to do as scum

1) Tell the truth about his target
2) Lie and say what he knew a partner did
3) Gamble on what town did

Lets say he did something completely different though, like lied about a partners action. If he did this, MoI had to counter him as if MoI got lynched first, it means that Stark was proven to be lying. Im not sure if that result was planned or not, but if it wasnt, I would have done the EXACT same thing that MoI did there. I think this was entirely not planned since Stark seemed to be caught off guard by my targeting him.

The cop death too is a "huh?" one too and is where im a little confused and really is the only reason I am thinking it MAY be Lucky. Really though it makes zero sense for anypony to have died but MoI. As scum it was 100% worth the risk for lucky/CSL to have killed MoI in hopes that the other got investigated followed by OOTN kill with GF fears.

Plus again, we are top heavy power wise at cop/cop/voyuer/motion sensor/miller vs tracker/goon/?. Two weak info roles just feels a bit off too, but thats a lesser point. For this to balance with MoI-town, Lucky would have to be something strong (which makes no sense in his self-sacrafice mode). Putting MoI-scum either as weak role (and maybe even goon) balances.

Onto Lopsy though, she actually never interacted with dead scum much, apart from complaining about MB inactivity. There is a vote on Stark, which quickly gets pulled off and the read on him switches to newb-town. In the same post she is very much on the fence about MB, showing some distaste but just asking for more from her.

Vote MoI

If you lynch me today just lynch him tomorrow. MoI will "follow" CSL tonight if I get lynched, since otherwise im pretty sure he would come up with a "went nowhere" and try and give ninja fears.

@MoI/AD/Lucky - I want 100% from you that you will not vote CSL if I get lynched today. Its Lucky or MoI, and I want MoI lynched since he has played almost exactly like I would expect him to play as scum at more critical junctures of the game.

[ActionDan]

I'll never lynch CSL ever.

Px

Cystal maiden is a bro

I appreciate the dialogue between you guys, I am holding myself back from joining though (well I don't have much time anyway, but) because I want your thoughts not to be influenced by anything I might have to say.

I would like Lucky to participate a bit more.

[Luckyjt]

Looking at the interaction between MOI and Istark, they seemed to try making sure they were posting against each other. Istark brought up a point that MOi could have been outing his partners to completely fool us that he is town. This could still be very true. But I feel their arguments were very genuine and they are actually against each other.

@RD like what I said if MOI is scum he has won the game. There is no way we can lynch him because we risk lynching an important town power role. ANd if he is scum he will frame someone tomorrow.

[ActionDan]

The only person who's won the game if they are scum is CSL... or me (it's ok guys I'm town and will die tomorrow. I'm totally scum though if I survive. totally.)

Um Lucky. *cough* ah, I'll explain the dynamics of the situation we find ourselves in simply.

me and CSL are town (well CSL not saying anything makes me paranoid but, what can I do. Actually CSL, can you get your butt in here? that would be cool. seriously post anything and I'll be satisfied) *Ahem* so anyway dynamics! We have 3 suspects. You, RD, and Moi. We have 2 lynches available. that means we have to gamble on one of you being town. In light of the above, what does Moi's important town power role have to do with him being immune from a lynch?

[ActionDan]

Moi could I have your theory as to why istark lied about tracking you?

[Rainbowdash]

@RD like what I said if MOI is scum he has won the game. There is no way we can lynch him because we risk lynching an important town power role. ANd if he is scum he will frame someone tomorrow.

First "Oh come on" - If we went by this theory always we wouldnt have even lynched Stark. Scum will fakeclaim at times.

Second "Oh come on" - I really dont think Lucky is scum with all of this because he would need to be a strong PR (really strong) who is self-sacraficial and doesnt seem to understand that he is stopping anything productive from happening in endgame if he is scum.

Its MoI. I am happy (well not "happy" but content) being lynched if you will just lynch him tomorrow, I just dont want Lucky throwing the game with a "herpa derpa he claimed a PR" move.

After the Stark claim it was textbook correct move from MoI-scum to make that counter.

[Luckyjt]

@RD like what I said if MOI is scum he has won the game. There is no way we can lynch him because we risk lynching an important town power role. ANd if he is scum he will frame someone tomorrow.

First "Oh come on" - If we went by this theory always we wouldnt have even lynched Stark. Scum will fakeclaim at times.

Second "Oh come on" - I really dont think Lucky is scum with all of this because he would need to be a strong PR (really strong) who is self-sacraficial and doesnt seem to understand that he is stopping anything productive from happening in endgame if he is scum.

Its MoI. I am happy (well not "happy" but content) being lynched if you will just lynch him tomorrow, I just dont want Lucky throwing the game with a "herpa derpa he claimed a PR" move.

After the Stark claim it was textbook correct move from MoI-scum to make that counter.

Do you honestly think we will lynch MOI today? If not why wont we lynch him? Because simple he claimed a PR and has something to back him up. Im not saying we shouldnt lynch him tomorrow but lets say he says that "player" is scum. That player will have a hard time to argue back that MOI is lying. So that player would end up lynched and it would be game over, MOI wins.

And remember its not just the claim we are going up against but the fact that he has gotten two mafia people lynched, so something is there to back him up. Even though there is always the chance that he sacrificed his teammates to go unnoticed.

[Rainbowdash]

You (again) do realize that MoI busted the already critically wounded rban claim, and as I said it was the correct play for him to bust the Stark claim right? I think he is either going to be a GF here, since that would probably about balance vs two cops/voyuer/miller. Heck I can even see saying making him a goon sorta balances it.

If im scum how does this balance? That question goes for AD and MoI too.