Mini 1316 - Last Will Mafia IV (Over)

[Fishythefish]

Meh. I doubt it's an engineered claim. Scum don't tend to dream up new and exciting roles very often - much less often than mods. And if they do, they are probably quite keen to actually tell you what they do. I'm not saying this one couldn't be balanced, but giving the scum a too-powerful role and then rebalancing by stacking the town doesn't seem like Llama's style to me. Outguessing the mod, I know, but in a pretty reasonable way.

Fair enough about your suspicions of me tainting the claim. Although actually, if I was scum with DDD, I'd be absolutely terrified of saying anything at all about this claim, for fear of it not seeming like a natural reaction from someone who didn't know the truth.

Waffle? What I see you quoting is me changing my mind, and/or adapting to circumstances. I think of "waffle" as "posting without content" (which I also think is a decent scumtell) - that's pretty much all content. Just not consistent content.

Which read changes do you find odd? I'd be happy to try to explain them to you.

The defacto lynch that will benefit the game dynamic the most? What does that mean?

[Fishythefish]

Hey Magua, I see you're online. Deadline is really soon - you should come and vote DCL or Macro. Preferably DCL, since Macro's town.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Hey Magua, I see you're online. Deadline is really soon - you should come and vote DCL or Macro. Preferably

DCL

Macro, since Macro's

town

scum.

*Pointy gunny thingy*

[DCLXVI]

My wagon is BS. Really, it is.

Both Rhinox and fishy were recently calling me town and all of the sudden now want my lynch. Seriously? reminds me of someone running for president in 2004

Macro's vote is just an OMGUS case (granted it is a town one but still...) his "case" on me is just him saying he didn't like my case on him.

SA is the only one who has consistently been suspicious of my slot. However, his "lets jump on this bandwagon" when I didn't have a single vote on me is very scummy.

Those are the people making up the 6 votes on me.

Not one comprehensive case on why I am scum has been made. (other than macros omgus thing)

sheesh guys...I know we don't want to lynch a potential mason or pr, but still this is a pretty awful mislynch in the making.

Just to be clear, I don't intend on voting macro or DDD wagons just to save myself from getting lynched as I think they are town.

[Rhinox]

I'm probably going to regret this

unvote: vote macro

[Fishythefish]

@DCL: You're the best of a bad bunch here. I'm not going to not vote on the lynch just because I don't like the options. A no lynch is worse than any of the available lynches.

Yeah, that's not exactly inspiring. But it's not BS.

Pedit: aw. Hope I'm wrong .

[Fishythefish]

Hey, Rhinox, let's make a pact. In the morning, we come back with some actual scumreads, and go lynch them.

[Rhinox]

Yeah I def. need to be better than I was today. Unacceptable really.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

Macrophage (7) - Voidedmafia, hiplop, Debonair Danny DiPietro, kortul, 4nxi3ty, rhinox
DCLXVI (4) - Sleepless Assassin, Macrophage, fishythefish
fishythefish (1) - Magua
Sleepless Assassin (1) - DCLXVI

[LlamaFluff]

Macrophage - Mafia One Shot Vanilla Cop - Lynched Day Two

His vote passes to Magua who now has two votes

Deadline for night actions is Monday May 7th, 7AM PST. Deadline has been slightly extended due to me being V/LA this weekend

[LlamaFluff]

4nxi3ty - Mason - Died Night Two

His vote passes to Voidedmafia, who now has two votes

With 13 votes in play it takes 7 to lynch
Deadline is May 28th, 7AM PST

[Magua]

rhinox is town.
Voidedmafia is obvtown.
kortul is probably town.
DCLXVI being the counterwagon to Macrophage makes him probably also town.
Similar logic can be applied to DDD (being a Macrophage counterwagon), though I'm less sure on this. Still not interested in lynching DDD today.

Leaves fishythefish, Sleepy Assassin, and hiplop, who I wish to lynch in approximately that order.

VOTE: Fishythefish x 2

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I need to get this out there before any real speculation starts. Magua was at the bottom of Macrophage's list, not the top. Fishy had the right idea when he realized my ability let me do "last will shenanigans" however he wasn’t right in that I couldn’t re-write anyone’s will at will; instead my ability made it so that I could have someone’s will processed backwards (hence why I opened the game asking about the bottom of everyone’s lists).

I was expecting to find myself or DCL on the bottom of Macrophage’s list and hand a vote to a town aligned player; instead Magua was apparently at the bottom who I consider more of a question mark.

~~

As I made clear yesterday I think Rhinox and/or SA is the right call for Macro’s scumpartner(s). I need to do a quick game review to see who is the more likely of them but I expect my vote to end up on one of them in short order.

[Magua]

Oh, man, I thought I had been given the vote by scum in order to watch the WIFOM and for scum to try to get me lynched.

[Magua]

Do you get any information about the will (who was on top, specifically)?

[Rhinox]

Yeah so I have similar thinking as magua considering macro-scum, but came to slightly different conclusions.

{voided, hiplop*, DDD} - all 3 were hard on macro D1 and parked votes there all of D2. Only * is hiplop hammered LS instead on staying on macro D1 but one could argue someone had to hammer to prevent a no lynch. My notes had them all currently town, barring any sort of hard core bussing of macro which I won't rule out completely but doesn't seem necessary. Hiplop had the least activity / stuff to say D2 except for to pop in now and then to be all like "OMG why isn't macro lynched yet" so if anyone bussed I'd say it was hiplop over the other 2 but its not where I'm starting today.

I had 4nxi3ty as town which is now confirmed.

I also reaffirm my town read on DCLXVI since he was the main counterwagon and since I already thought funky was town.

That left {SA, kortul, fishy, and magua} as the group I'd be focusing on today and expect to find the remaining scum.

I got that far friday afternoon. I meant to have something to say about each of those 4 by today, but I unexpectedly lost internet over the weekend since friday afternoon so thats all the farther I got.

I feel more focused with a scumflip now so I should have better activity and content today.

[Rhinox]

Oh, man, I thought I had been given the vote by scum in order to watch the WIFOM and for scum to try to get me lynched.

In the past LW games scum traditionally haven't been giving their votes to their partners IIRC so I don't think that would have happened. But because of that its just as interesting that you were at the bottom than if you'd have been at the top but also just as WIFOM.

[Sleepless Assassin]

I need to do a really detailed analysis of some sort. Starting to think my reads went from great early day 1 to terrible late Day 2 again. I've been doing that lately...

[kortul]

I am back from my vacation, but still need a free evening to gather my thoughts and then to do ISOs on my suspects. Hopefully it will be today or tomorrow.

@

Magua

- have you completed the reread already? Are your thoughts today based on it, or just on the last events?

I don't agree that DCLXVI was the main counterwagon, it was the last counterwagon. For a long time it was DDD, after his claim the focus shifted (after post 928 and vote from fishy) to 4nx, who also claimed in advance, and only then DCL started rolling. If DDD or 4nx would be VT, chances are they would be lynched. Still, DCLXVI

was

L-1 counterwagon, just with fewer people thanks to a lastwill mechanics, so the main question is how likely that everyone there except Macro were town. I have to think more on this after ISOs.

DCLXVI

, can you help me with the following? I am confused by your "Just to be clear, I don't intend on voting macro or DDD wagons just to save myself from getting lynched as I think they are town." If you are town, you definitely know only your own alignment, so why sacrifice yourself for someone else? I don't see any scum motivation here, just don't understand the mindset, can you explain your thoughts?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Rhinox: Still stand behind my day one summary; I will note upon further review that he did get very wall-posty after the LS “good point” debacle which is probably a minor town tell for a player who doesn’t have that as their default setting.

Obviously I disagree with his vote and dust-up with me at the beginning of D2 but again at least he shows some effort and conviction there. However, after that he goes missing from the game big time; we’re talking ten days or so of nothing with just three or four “prod-dodge” type posts. We then get into the endgame of D2 and after my wagon falls apart he’s everywhere but in favor of a Macro lynch; he tries to jumpstart an 4nxiety lynch and then after his mason claim falls back to DCL even though he’d just said he preferred a Macro wagon to a DCL wagon. This is good and bad; I’ve long held that foolish consistency is a scumtell and not something town really worries about so the fact that he was willing to backtrack so quickly is actually a towntell but he does do about everything he possibly can to avoid voting for Macro until the only choices are No lynch or Macro-lynch. He did come through on the Macro-lynch though and I’m not sure he would’ve taken any personal blame if we had no-lynched so again that’s another minor point in his favor. It’s not good play from him, but there are some lurking positives.

Sleepless Assassain: Still agree with my minor D1 notes about him. He puts his vote down on town-4nxiety and doesn’t really push that hard on it. He also seems very invested in defending Macro’s about face claim as a towntell which was about Macro’s only saving grace with a good many people. I also find this sequence pretty brutal…

I want my voice to reflect my opinions.

And then he votes he a half-dozen posts later without having mentioned me being scummy or scum in the meanwhile; now he certainly disagreed with me in that time but he does nothing to jump from “wrong” to scum. And while I don’t blame him for voting DCL given that there was support for his wagon even if there weren’t votes actively there at the time he’s again voting likely town instead of scum.

~~

I can see some redeeming features in Rhinox’s play now that I look at it a bit; I don’t see those in the play of Sleepless Assassin.

VOTE: Sleepless Assassin

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Do you get any information about the will (who was on top, specifically)?

Unfortunately, no.

[Fishythefish]

I need to get this out there before any real speculation starts. Magua was at the bottom of Macrophage's list, not the top. Fishy had the right idea when he realized my ability let me do "last will shenanigans" however he wasn’t right in that I couldn’t re-write anyone’s will at will; instead my ability made it so that I could have someone’s will processed backwards (hence why I opened the game asking about the bottom of everyone’s lists).

I was expecting to find myself or DCL on the bottom of Macrophage’s list and hand a vote to a town aligned player; instead Magua was apparently at the bottom who I consider more of a question mark.

~~

As I made clear yesterday I think Rhinox and/or SA is the right call for Macro’s scumpartner(s). I need to do a quick game review to see who is the more likely of them but I expect my vote to end up on one of them in short order.

Magua is the bottom of the playerlist. I (and I expect others) sometimes do last wills by taking the playerlist and editing a few people to the top, so this may be completely null.

If anything, a mild towntell for Magua - I can't see scum putting other scum at the bottom of a will if it's something they are thinking about.

@Magua: did you check out the meta I posted? I think it shows strongly that this is not how I play as scum, which seemed to be what your read is based on. Why do you think I'm scum (other than PoE)?

DDD's role is not very town any more (it's not particularly overpowered as scum AFAIC), but DDD himself is pretty obvtown - we didn't get two scum to L-1 or close simultaneously. Macro seemed genuinely keen to get a DCL lynch, and I doubt he is scum either.

More tomorrow.

[Magua]

@

Magua

- have you completed the reread already? Are your thoughts today based on it, or just on the last events?

I started on D2 and then wandered off. I haven't read the end yet (in particular, I had missed that 4nxiety claimed mason -- I thought the mafia had Vanilla-copped him N1 and then shot him).

I don't agree that DCLXVI was the main counterwagon, it was the last counterwagon. For a long time it was DDD, after his claim the focus shifted (after post 928 and vote from fishy) to 4nx, who also claimed in advance, and only then DCL started rolling. If DDD or 4nx would be VT, chances are they would be lynched. Still, DCLXVI

was

L-1 counterwagon, just with fewer people thanks to a lastwill mechanics, so the main question is how likely that everyone there except Macro were town. I have to think more on this after ISOs.

Assuming three mafia, this doesn't work (FMPOV) because it means that either both other scum were bussing Macrophage (not very likely, given how long he teetered at L-1) or that the other scum are DCLXVI and someone on the Macrophage wagon (probably hiplop). I just don't find the idea probable -- if both mafia were going to be bussing their buddy, I don't see how the wagon would've teeter tottered at L-1 for so long.

I could see Macrophage-scum jumping onto a buddy knowing he's going to be lynched to give the buddy some cred, but I would expect that to be on a more active player, is what it is. Macrophage-scum jumping on buddy-scum is pointless if buddy scum is just going to be a possible lynch anyways.

@Magua: did you check out the meta I posted? I think it shows strongly that this is not how I play as scum, which seemed to be what your read is based on. Why do you think I'm scum (other than PoE)?

I did. I still think you're scum. Hence, my vote.

Given that your big townread flipped scum and you now think one of your scumreads is town, I'm curious who do *you* think is scum now?

[Voidedmafia]

*happy over lynching Macro-scum, sad about losing 4nx*

With Macro flipping scum, I believe there are a few associations from all three people on that slot that I need to look over. Don't have time to now, but it's something I need to do later.

DDD: Didn't Rhinox explain why he was absent most of D2? I will agree that the last second vote is slightly suspicious, but not enough to overly change my mind.

Also, while the vote going to Mag is suspicious, I'm not entirely sure whether it's to a scumpartner or just a red herring. I don't think it's bad for scum to give their vote to a partner (one vote, at least), though I'm not going to push Mag with just this reasoning.

Mag: Why am I obvtown (seemingly through my pushing of Macro), while DDD is town through being the counterwagon and hiplop isn't town at all?

[Magua]

Mag: Why am I obvtown (seemingly through my pushing of Macro), while DDD is town through being the counterwagon and hiplop isn't town at all?

Nothing to do with pushing Macrophage. I'm assuming that 4nxiety gave his vote to you because you're his mason partner.