Mini 1316 - Last Will Mafia IV (Over)

[hiplop]

Roit roit.

ah fuck, you're right. And based on some other games I read during scummy's, I think this just comes from you no matter the alignment

it's kinda connotation magua, but eh

UNVOTE: :\

[Magua]

Did you unvote Fishy because no one else was voting him? Because that's what your #1044 seems to be saying.

[hiplop]

kinda

his recent posts seem a lot townier, like hes not a townread or anything just less scummy than before, and with the wagon not going anywhere i jumped off

[Magua]

If a wagon on someone isn't moving, do you think that's because the person is more likely to be town or scum?

[Fishythefish]

@Magua: do you have any response to this:

No stances or reads? Bollocks. It's pretty clear from my posting that DDD, DCL, and Voided are all very likely town, that you and kortul are scummy, and that SA and hiplop are possible but unlikely scum. Sure, there's nothing I've said that says "X is 100%, definitely scum" - I don't think scumhunting is that easy - but I'm drawing very clear lines between people. What is scummy about that? Do town always think there's one person who's ridiculously scummy? Why do scum gain from taking firm stances, but posting "Meh" analysis?

My response on SA: IMO, SA's done some good scumhunting on other days. You asked "what scumhunting has SA done today". I was all like "well, none today". What the hell else do you expect me to say?

@SA

: any idea when you'll have time to do a reread?

Which players in this game is currently clearer in their stances and reads than me?

[Magua]

You misunderstand. I'm not saying "being equivocating" is a general scumtell. I don't, as a rule, believe in general scumtells. I'm saying it's a scumtell for *you*.

The guidelines I'm using to judge you, and, say, hiplop, are so radically different it beggars the imagination. hiplop's "Fishy wagon isn't moving, time to vote someone else" is so entirely completely illogical that were you, or Rhinox, or DDD to make that statement I'd be all over them like bacon on more bacon. But it's hiplop, so I'm all meh.

As to this conversation, I know you're scum, you know you're scum, you're not going to convince me otherwise, so let's move on to a conversation that might be productive: Who, besides myself, do you think is scum? Not "has a chance of being scum" or weasel words like that, but actually believe is scum?

[hiplop]

in this case I think its scum, in most cases though its town...just due there being more town players

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

Magua (4) - fishythefish, voidedmafia
kortul (3) - rhinox, DCLXVI
fishythefish (2) - Magua
Sleepless Assassin (1) - Debonair Danny DiPietro

Not Voting (3) - Sleepless Assassin, kortul, hiplop

With 13 votes in play it takes 7 to lynch
Deadline is May 28th, 7AM PST

rhinox prodded
DCLXVI prodded

[DCLXVI]

DCL, please explain where at all I've indicated I would definitively lynch Kortul. I've stated that, if it comes down to it at the deadline, I'd lynch him over Fishy, but that does not and should not mean that I want him dead now.

PoE to me dictates that Kortul or SA, or Mag would be where I'd place my votes today, though they're not all bad choices.

[Magua]

DCL, please explain where at all I've indicated I would definitively lynch Kortul. I've stated that, if it comes down to it at the deadline, I'd lynch him over Fishy, but that does not and should not mean that I want him dead now.

PoE to me dictates that Kortul or SA, or Mag would be where I'd place my votes today, though they're not all bad choices.

Why is kortul your #1 scumread over Fishy, Sleepless Assassin, or myself (those who are not you and were not on the Macrophage wagon)?

[Rhinox]

oh shit didn't realize its been that long since I posted

Will probably have to get caught up in the morning. we'll see how long I feel like sitting at the comp this evening.

[Magua]

Thank you for your post. It was both useful and informative.

[DCLXVI]

I think 1060 & 1061 were equally informative.

[Voidedmafia]

Your 1062 is so informative, too.

Not gonna answer mag's question?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Your 1062 is so informative, too.

Not gonna answer mag's question?

Or address 1035?

[Rhinox]

Thank you for your post. It was both useful and informative.

fuck you too I was prodded that was my acknowledgement. Piss off.

[DCLXVI]

Your 1062 is so informative, too.

Relax, the irony was intentional.


in response to 1035:

Logically, town wouldn't quickhammer someone, but people don't always act logically. I've seen town quickhammer without claims before.


in response to 1060:

I've explained why I find kortul scummy.

[Magua]

fuck you too I was prodded that was my acknowledgement. Piss off.

Sincerely hope that this was a drunkpost.

@DCL:

I didn't ask why you found him scummy. I asked why you found him scummier than myself, Fishy, or Sleepless.

I will elucidate: Assuming there are 3 mafia, and, FYPOV, knowing that you are not one of the three, which do you feel is more likely:
a. Both of the other mafia were bussing Macrophage, or
b. 0-1 other mafia were bussing Macrophage and 1-2 mafia were not

?

[DCLXVI]

@DCL: I didn't ask why you found him scummy. I asked why you found him scummier than myself, Fishy, or Sleepless.

I will elucidate: Assuming there are 3 mafia, and, FYPOV, knowing that you are not one of the three, which do you feel is more likely:
a. Both of the other mafia were bussing Macrophage, or
b. 0-1 other mafia were bussing Macrophage and 1-2 mafia were not

B

[Magua]

Hooray!

So, then, FYPOV, there is at least one scum in (myself, Fishy, Sleepless Assassin).

Given those stunningly good odds, why are you concentrating on kortul and not on the, as it were, low hanging fruit?

[Fishythefish]

You misunderstand. I'm not saying "being equivocating" is a general scumtell. I don't, as a rule, believe in general scumtells. I'm saying it's a scumtell for *you*.

The guidelines I'm using to judge you, and, say, hiplop, are so radically different it beggars the imagination. hiplop's "Fishy wagon isn't moving, time to vote someone else" is so entirely completely illogical that were you, or Rhinox, or DDD to make that statement I'd be all over them like bacon on more bacon. But it's hiplop, so I'm all meh.

As to this conversation, I know you're scum, you know you're scum, you're not going to convince me otherwise, so let's move on to a conversation that might be productive: Who, besides myself, do you think is scum? Not "has a chance of being scum" or weasel words like that, but actually believe is scum?

OK, that's fair. I mean, it's kind of strange that you are holding me to a standard which I suspect

noone

in this game is meeting, but there we go.

I'm not scum. I'm also not convinced this conversation is useless; you've talked an enormous quantity of bullshit about me, and even if your read on me is set in stone I need to figure out if that's because you are scum.

First, to answer your question; I think you and kortul are very likely scum. If those are weasel words, call me a weasel; I'm not 100% sure, and I'm not going to tell you I am to please you.

Now, here, again, are my unanswered problems with your case:
1. You accuse me of equivocating, of not taking stances, having reads, etc. That is somewhat fair on other days, though I think you've exaggerated that, but today is a bizarre accusation. There are two people in this game I think are head and shoulders scummier than anyone else in it; there are two more in the middle; and there are four I think are all town. Those are some pretty firm stances. And why do scum equivocate and have flimsy reads? The only real reason is that they want to be flexible in who they can vote for - which I am absolutely not here.
2. You say that 1) is a meta scumtell for me. You cite Trader Mafia. I have gone through Trader Mafia day by day, showing that the comparison is terrible. I've also linked to all my recent scumgames. For someone who is relying on meta to make their case, you effectively ignoring these posts is horrible. My typical scum game can be summarised as "Pick a target. Get them lynched. Repeat until town is dead.". You are attacking me for a meta-scumtell that's actually a huge meta-towntell.

You've also really be stretching to try to make more points on me. There have been a couple inaccuracies in your recent attacks on me, first on my kortul read, and secondly on SA (where you went after me for answering your question). These mistakes aren't scummy in themselves, but show that you are trying hard to find extra things to add to the case on me. That could be tunnelled town, but you don't really strike me as tunnelled here - there are things I'd have expected tunnelled town to make into a point against me (particularly the way I called Macro town over and over again).

@Everyone who isn't Magua:

Read me and Magua in double iso. He's consistently avoided engaging me on my meta, which is the bedrock of his case. His accusation that I haven't had reads or stances and/or that they've changed a lot is exaggerated for D1 and D2, and today is complete nonsense. I think it's pretty blatant that Magua isn't currently thinking about I'm saying or why, but instead looking for anything he can pick at, any way at all to keep up is spin that I'm not doing anything.

---

@Magua: I disagree with your "low hanging fruit" (though I am voting for one of them). While there is a smallish scumpool of people off the Macro wagon, lots of the ones

on

it are very likely town, so if you think it likely that someone bussed that person is very likely to be kortul. In this position, 1/3 just isn't good odds.

[Rhinox]

Sincerely hope that this was a drunkpost.

It was. Apparently drunken Rhinox has no tolerance for snark.

[Magua]

@Magua: I disagree with your "low hanging fruit" (though I am voting for one of them). While there is a smallish scumpool of people off the Macro wagon, lots of the ones on it are very likely town, so if you think it likely that someone bussed that person is very likely to be kortul. In this position, 1/3 just isn't good odds.

I don't actually think that Macrophage was bussed at all.

Or to put it another way, there's a 100% chance in my mind, and as far as I can tell, everyone else's, that (Magua, Fishy, Sleepless, DCL) contains at least 1 scum.

There is a non-insignificant chance (for me, personally, > 66%) that it contains 2 scum. If this is the case, kortul is, of course, town.

So, FMPOV, for someone to vote kortul over (Magua, Fishy, Sleepless, DCL) should require like some next-level leap in confidence that kortul is actually scum, because lynching someone from the pool, myself included, who is town, still helps in reducing the size of the pool that I feel that both of the scum will be found in. Lynching kortul, if he's town, does nothing.

[kortul]

I was wrong about my free time after the vacation, and underestimated the amount of careful reading needed for any serious analysis. So until i find that time, i will settle for something more simple, taking into account that we have a scum flip now. All my thoughts are based on assumption that we have 3 scum in the setup (4 seems too much). I still lack forum experience, so will rely on my knowledge of RL games as well, since scum motives and general tells should be similar anyway, and moreso when the deadline is near (scum under time pressure tend to do more slips).

I'll start with stats and thoughts on wagons. DCLXVI, Magua/Alicewondering both were present on LS lynch, but absent from Macro lynch. They automatically enter my scum pool. Voided, DDD and rhinox were absent from LS lynch, but present on Macro lynch, they go into my town pool, but more on rhinox later. hiplop was on both wagons, but he hammered LS to avoid no-lynch, so goes into my town pool as well. SA and fish were absent from both wagons, but SA was much more consistent than fishy on days 1 and 2, so he goes into my town pool, and fishy to a scum pool.

Now, back to rhinox. During day 3 i got an impression that he believes that his hammer on Macro removes any suspicions from him, i find this reaction strange. I reassessed possible scenarios, and see two cases where he is scum (ie he is conditional scum for me). First case is DCL scum - after DDD and 4nx become invalid lynch targets and DCL wagon started rolling rhinox scum had to join it, waited for his partner claim, and then decided which sacrifice would benefit scum most. Second case is DCL town, and fishy scum - rhinox scum joined the wagon, but after the claim decided that 3 scum on the same wagon is too much and had to switch. So while he is in my town pool, when doing ISO on DCL and fishy i will watch for possible connections with rhinox.

After ISO on Macro and from what i remember on previous days events Fishy and Magua/Alice fit much better to be partners with Macro, but i don't see the Fishy-Magua scumteam at all. Moreover, Magua-DCL (and moreso Magua-rhinox) teams aren't likely for me, so if Magua is scum, third scum isn't among my suspects. Right now Fishy is more suspicious for me than Magua or DCL, will reasses after i will finally have time.

VOTE: Fishythefish

I think that equivocating/not taking stances/not having reads is correct description for Fishy play in this game, and even today it was true before Magua called him on this - after that me and Magua are his firm scum reads. What i find even more strange now, that while his scumreads were weak, his town read on Macro was strong enough to defend it. His defense of himself by giving a list of meta examples that his scum play is different is rather meh, since if the playstile changes are obvious, and he is aware of the difference, he can play against this meta whenever he likes. But such a playstile allows activity that i see from him for two days already - claim hunthing. During day 1 Fishy was following LS, but all those wagons died except for Macro. Next day was more productive, since he got 2-3 claims under the belt until the day ended (depending whether DCL is scum or not). Today he found two new targets.

[Rhinox]

The difference between him and fishy really is that fishy flipped his read on macro to town. Not a safe move for scum to do if macro got lynched.

This is a good point but SA basically did the same thing, and I don't want to dismiss both SA and fishy as scum suspects for flipping on macro.

Rhinox: Just because you hammered scum doesn't mean that can't be suspect.

Just pointing out that my vote on DCL is not the same as kortul's vote on LS. Kortul settled on a town read when both lynches were viable. I had an internal struggle that had me temporarily move my vote to DCL in a lapse of judgement, but I ended up with my vote in the right spot (not right because it was on scum, right because I went with my reads). I'm also considering the rest of kortuls play, where multiple times he found reasons to NOT vote macro's slot. He gave reasons today for that but the reasons don't matter. Scum are supposed to find reasons to vote town instead of their partners.

If it helps people understanding my thinking at the end of the day yesterday, I heard people suggesting me as a scum partner to DCL and I think I got a little spooked. I started thinking what if I was wrong about funky/DCL all along, and I was worried if macro got lynched and was town, then DCL would probably be next, and if DCL was scum I could be mislynched for whatever connection ppl were seeing after that at a bad time if not lylo still very late in the game where mislynches hurt more. I looked at the wagons, I saw people I have called or suspected as scum all game (at the time) on the macro wagon, and I saw town reads (again, at the time) on the DCL wagon. So I paniced and voted DCL. But where my play differs from kortul is that I eventually decided to trust my own reads and live with the consequences if I was wrong. That was what the whole "I'll probably regret this" sentiment was for.

I agree that it's not the same. You put your town read to L-1. I put my scum read to L-1. You made a correct choice after that, but that doesn't amend your previous votes.

Yeah same as just because you are explaining now after the fact that LS went from strong town to null to scum doesn't amend that nothing you posted in thread shows this progression, it just came out of left field the post you voted him.

Yeah here we go in [post]353[/post] LS unvotes alice and votes funky. You are saying now and when you voted that is when you started doubting your LS read and moved him to null. But you didn't say anything then. In fact, in [post]371[/post] you moved your vote right on to funky from alice as well. That is not consistent with the belief that LS moving away from alice made you suspect him.

Thank you for your post. It was both useful and informative.

So snark aside, what bothers me about this post is that you had all day D2 to berate me for not posting content. Your choice to snipe at me now seems to coincide with you getting some attention and votes, and the irony of it all is that I'm actually providing content today. I'm having a hard time not reading this as "annoyed scum".

I'm trying to work out your math gymnastics in [post]1072[/post]. I'm not working under any assumption other than that there are 2 scum in {kortul, SA, fishy, magua}. DCL is not even in my assumption. And I'm going to lynch who I think is scum, not who I think will provide the most information if they're town.

First case is DCL scum - after DDD and 4nx become invalid lynch targets and DCL wagon started rolling rhinox scum had to join it, waited for his partner claim, and then decided which sacrifice would benefit scum most. Second case is DCL town, and fishy scum - rhinox scum joined the wagon, but after the claim decided that 3 scum on the same wagon is too much and had to switch. So while he is in my town pool, when doing ISO on DCL and fishy i will watch for possible connections with rhinox.

Both scenarios are dumb. If I'm scum with DCL and macro, I did not have to join the DCL wagon, and I did not need a claim from DCL to decide which lynch would be more beneficial to me-scum. Second scenario I would see BEFORE placing my vote on DCL that 3 scum on the same wagon was too much if that is what I would have been thinking.

During day 3 i got an impression that he believes that his hammer on Macro removes any suspicions from him, i find this reaction strange.

No see above. I was pointing out that you actually lynched your town read. While I may have voted my town read, I did NOT lynch my town read.