Mini 1316 - Last Will Mafia IV (Over)

[Rhinox]

I also realize at some point I will need to make a decision on fishy/magua - right now its obv there is not 2 scum there, but I'm still trying to figure out if it could be town v town.

[Magua]

So snark aside, what bothers me about this post is that you had all day D2 to berate me for not posting content. Your choice to snipe at me now seems to coincide with you getting some attention and votes, and the irony of it all is that I'm actually providing content today. I'm having a hard time not reading this as "annoyed scum".

My choice to snipe at you now has everything to do with you posting something while I'm paying attention, and then responding to it. I despise "will post later" posts rather universally.

But let's explore this. You think that I'm scum getting some attention and some votes, and that my response is to derail the only other wagon of note (kortul), and to piss you off in the bargain?

I'm trying to work out your math gymnastics in [post]1072[/post]. I'm not working under any assumption other than that there are 2 scum in {kortul, SA, fishy, magua}. DCL is not even in my assumption. And I'm going to lynch who I think is scum, not who I think will provide the most information if they're town.

Hooray, 2 of our scumreads are the same.

[kortul]

Yeah here we go in [post]353[/post]

LS unvotes alice and votes funky. You are saying now and when you voted that is when you started doubting your LS read and moved him to null. But you didn't say anything then.

In fact, in [post]371[/post] you moved your vote right on to funky from alice as well. That is not consistent with the belief that LS moving away from alice made you suspect him.

You are actively twisting my words and factual information. My LS read moved to nul after Nacho revealed that LS lied about the switch, and that happened long after the switch itself. And post 371 was my first post after LS unvoted alice. Did you read it carefully?

I'll quote the relevant parts:

2)

I was impressed by Nacho, who came in and with a help of logic and careful questions revealed that LS lied about the reasons of his switch from Alice. Nacho become my strong town read, while LS moved to null

- i didn't understand why he lied about vote switch, especially from Alice, who still was my main scumread.

I don't see how admitting that points are valid makes Alicewondering less scummy now

, but move from funkybike1 brought him closer to her, and theomoaner is there as well (at least until i will hear an explanation from him). Basicly now i see all three almost equally scummy, with Alice still leading, but remaining on the same wagon with funky AND theo feels so wrong, therefore:
UNVOTE:
VOTE: funkybike1

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Logically, town wouldn't quickhammer someone, but people don't always act logically. I've seen town quickhammer without claims before.

And if they're quickhammering scum, what's the issue exactly? Shouldn't we be grateful for another dead scum and someone who is incredibly likely to be town given a quickhammer on scum?

~~

Magua, you want to see how I'm being ignored? Look right here. I think I've got something interesting and nobody else is interested in the slightest.

~~

UNVOTE:

SA vote isn't doing anything productive despite the fact that he's done nothing all day and I want to get a handle on this Magua/Fishy thing.

[kortul]

Both scenarios are dumb. If I'm scum with DCL and macro, I did not have to join the DCL wagon, and I did not need a claim from DCL to decide which lynch would be more beneficial to me-scum. Second scenario I would see BEFORE placing my vote on DCL that 3 scum on the same wagon was too much if that is what I would have been thinking.

Those scenarios are dumb if you plan in advance. With 8 hours to deadline, seeing 2 wagons halted by claims, they are not dumb. You even said in the very same post that you panicked, though explanation for this reaction is beyond me. If you are town you shouldn't be worrying and panicking because of connections with those who are lynched, you should be worrying who is more likely to be scum.

If it helps people understanding my thinking at the end of the day yesterday, I heard people suggesting me as a scum partner to DCL and

I think I got a little spooked.

I started thinking what if I was wrong about funky/DCL all along, and I was worried if macro got lynched and was town, then DCL would probably be next, and if DCL was scum I could be mislynched for whatever connection ppl were seeing after that at a bad time if not lylo still very late in the game where mislynches hurt more. I looked at the wagons, I saw people I have called or suspected as scum all game (at the time) on the macro wagon, and I saw town reads (again, at the time) on the DCL wagon.

So I paniced

and voted DCL.

[DCLXVI]

And if they're quickhammering scum, what's the issue exactly? Shouldn't we be grateful for another dead scum and someone who is incredibly likely to be town given a quickhammer on scum?

Yes I think kortul is scum, so in that sense a quickhammer on him would not have been bad. But I'm leaving open the option that I'm wrong. It is completely possible that he has could have a legitimate town role-claim to make. Unlikely, but still possible which was why I asked for that when he was effectively at L-1.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

Magua (4) - fishythefish, Voidedmafia
fishythefish (3) - Magua, kortul
kortul (3) - rhinox, DCLXVI

Not Voting (3) - Sleepless Assassin, hiplop, Debonair Danny DiPietro

With 13 votes it takes 7 to lynch
Deadline is May 28th, 7AM PST

[Magua]

Magua, you want to see how I'm being ignored? Look right here. I think I've got something interesting and nobody else is interested in the slightest.

To be fair, I am monopolizing the spotlight at the moment.

Also to be fair to DCL, I don't see your point -- I would want a claim from a lynch even if I thought they were scum, because I could be wrong.

[Voidedmafia]

Kortul: Because town shouldn't worry about bad connections that would just result in more townies being lynched amirite?

Also, I'm going V/LA tomorrow and won't be back till Saturday/Sunday, and I can't garauntee I'll have consistent access to post (and if I do, it'd just be to update the two newbies I'm modding). If you want to Temp-replace, Llama, that's fine, but unlike Vincent I will be back to play when I get home.

[Rhinox]

But let's explore this. You think that I'm scum getting some attention and some votes, and that my response is to derail the only other wagon of note (kortul), and to piss you off in the bargain?

Probably part knee-jerk reaction due to the snark. But I don't see anything wrong with that in the hypothetical Magua-Kortul scum pair scenario. That it pisses me off wouldn't be a consideration if you're trying to spark a counterwagon. An annoyed, OMGUSy reaction from me might actually help that goal from your POV.

Did you read it carefully?

Apparently not. But thats a straw man. The point stands that your posts do not show an evolving read of LS, it is just the explanation you are giving to explain the vote.

I was looking for something contradicting your explanation for icing on the cake.

Those scenarios are dumb if you plan in advance. With 8 hours to deadline, seeing 2 wagons halted by claims, they are not dumb. You even said in the very same post that you panicked, though explanation for this reaction is beyond me. If you are town you shouldn't be worrying and panicking because of connections with those who are lynched, you should be worrying who is more likely to be scum.

:shrug: I don't really have anything to say about this that doesn't devolve into "what I would do" as scum statements and theory discussion. I don't think DCL is scum and fishy is probably 50/50 at best, so I'm not really worried about your theories.

I also don't see much a point of you making those theories as scum unless fishy or DCL is your partner. You're not gonna get me lynched from an associative tell unless the player I'm linked to is scum. hmmmmmmm.

[kortul]

@Voided - i think that town should worry about making a bad judgement call. I don't see why would anyone panic because someone who they think is town may flip scum one day, unless they definitely know the result of future flip. Still, that's my experience from several years of RL games, so it may be wrong in a long forum game, in that case i am interested in a better description behind such panic. Maybe i will understand Rhinox logic and vote better then, or understand why he/Fishy/DCL all of sudden suspect me because i didn't land my vote on everyone whom i suspected.

@Rhinox - finally you come to the same conclusion as i wrote before - i do not have a goal to lynch you, you are in my town pool, with a possibility of being a conditional scum if DCL or fishy will flip a scum. And if you were carefully reading through my ISO, you would notice that my LS read didn't change in one moment, though apparently you were just skimming.

[Rhinox]

you would notice that my LS read didn't change in one moment, though apparently you were just skimming.

no that I still haven't seen and I've looked for it like 3 times. Closest I found was in 591 you said you were rereading and working on macro and Last, but no indication that your read was changing. Everything before that is all pro-LS. After that in 613 is the only stuff I found you said negative about LS and its the same post you voted him.

Oh here this:

Lastsurvivor. For a long time this was my strongest town read.

I had some doubts after his switch from Alice

- i still don't see why admitting that points are valid makes Alicewondering less scummy.

And here comes a case from Nacho. It shed new light on that Alice switch

, and brought into focus some older things, but i still wasn't convinced that Last is scum after rereading. His answer to my question was good and consistent with my read on him.

Thats what prompted me to go look for how you acted after he unvoted alice. Seemed like these were your own doubts (bolded), and not doubts from nacho's case since you reference that separately (itallics).

OK so 548 is where you first start finding LS maybe scummmy then. Maybe. It reads kinda like a feeler. Anything else I'm missing that shows your read on LS was changing?

I'll take some time and think on it and consider other options.

unvote

[Voidedmafia]

@Voided - i think that town should worry about making a bad judgement call. I don't see why would anyone panic because someone who they think is town may flip scum one day, unless they definitely know the result of future flip. Still, that's my experience from several years of RL games, so it may be wrong in a long forum game, in that case i am interested in a better description behind such panic. Maybe i will understand Rhinox logic and vote better then, or understand why he/Fishy/DCL all of sudden suspect me because i didn't land my vote on everyone whom i suspected.

Well, you have a point if he was, like, super-spazzy or something like that (exaggerated, but still). Maybe the amount of panic was more than necessary, but I'm sure you wouldn't want to be taken down because you happened to have these connections to a flipped scum that people notice after he/she's dead and then they bear down on you without you able to change their minds, or something.

[Fishythefish]

@Magua: I disagree with your "low hanging fruit" (though I am voting for one of them). While there is a smallish scumpool of people off the Macro wagon, lots of the ones on it are very likely town, so if you think it likely that someone bussed that person is very likely to be kortul. In this position, 1/3 just isn't good odds.

I don't actually think that Macrophage was bussed at all.

Or to put it another way, there's a 100% chance in my mind, and as far as I can tell, everyone else's, that (Magua, Fishy, Sleepless, DCL) contains at least 1 scum.

There is a non-insignificant chance (for me, personally, > 66%) that it contains 2 scum. If this is the case, kortul is, of course, town.

So, FMPOV, for someone to vote kortul over (Magua, Fishy, Sleepless, DCL) should require like some next-level leap in confidence that kortul is actually scum, because lynching someone from the pool, myself included, who is town, still helps in reducing the size of the pool that I feel that both of the scum will be found in. Lynching kortul, if he's town, does nothing.

OK. Why don't you think Macro was bussed?

VOTE: Fishythefish

I think that equivocating/not taking stances/not having reads is correct description for Fishy play in this game, and even today it was true before Magua called him on this - after that me and Magua are his firm scum reads. What i find even more strange now, that while his scumreads were weak, his town read on Macro was strong enough to defend it. His defense of himself by giving a list of meta examples that his scum play is different is rather meh, since if the playstile changes are obvious, and he is aware of the difference, he can play against this meta whenever he likes. But such a playstile allows activity that i see from him for two days already - claim hunthing. During day 1 Fishy was following LS, but all those wagons died except for Macro. Next day was more productive, since he got 2-3 claims under the belt until the day ended (depending whether DCL is scum or not). Today he found two new targets.

A few questions/comments on this:
1) What exactly do you mean by equivocating/not taking stances/not having reads? I think I've taken quite a lot of stances throughout the game. If you mean that my reads haven't been that strong, and have changed quite a lot, then that's not too far wrong.
2a) Whatever your answer to 1), why is that a scumtell? As in, why do scum do it, and why aren't I just town whose scumreads haven't been that strong?
2b) You seem to think my play today, specifically, is scummy. I think I spent a few days catching up - and saying I was - and then started posting good content that took firm positions. Do you disagree with that assessment? Why is my play today likely to come from scum?
3) What's the contradiction between having weak scumreads and strong townreads? That's where I've been all game, and I don't see why it's unlikely or scummy at all. I find it much more common for people to do things that scum wouldn't do than things that town wouldn't do.
4) On meta: I only gave a meta defence because Magua's attack is entirely

a meta attack

- check out his posting on me. I've never asked anyone else to look at that meta, although if they do I certainly won't complain. What should I have done when Magua said "X is a meta scumtell for you" and I know that to be completely false?
5) So, you think I'm scum who wagons people for claims? Scum's main activities (IMO) are a) trying to look town and b) trying to lynch townies. How important do you think getting claims is compared to those? Imagine yourself as scum. Would "getting claims out of townies" ever be the principle that dictated your entire strategy?
6) A minor point, but if you check your D1 facts you'll find I did hop around a lot, but a lot of the time the wagons followed me rather than the other way round (IIRC on Rhinox, Malee and one other I was leading or early on the wagon). Characterising me as wagoning scum (or wagoning town) isn't accurate for a lot of the wagons I was on, so your picture of claim hunting scum doesn't fit that well.

@DDD: I don't see a problem with SA's play near deadline. Compromising in a deadline lynch situation is sensible, and the fact that he was wrong (assuming you're town, which I pretty much do) doesn't make it scummy.

Sorry I'm so focused on my own case right now. I'm hoping to get some reads out of it.

[kortul]

@Rhinox - I didn't understand the reasons for LS switch from Alice and said so, but since i had my own reasons for a switch at that time, i didn't gave too much thought to this matter. You are correct about 548 - that was the time when i saw the Nacho interrogation and the results, and my opinion on LS dropped to null. After that i started rereading, and near the end of it asked LS about his opinion on Macro claim, he answered that it hadn't influenced his read. In the morning i found out, that 2 hours later, after the Macro voted him, LS changes his opinion on Macro, and i still read the post 599 as an attempt to appease Macro.

VOTE: Fishythefish

I think that equivocating/not taking stances/not having reads is correct description for Fishy play in this game, and even today it was true before Magua called him on this - after that me and Magua are his firm scum reads. What i find even more strange now, that while his scumreads were weak, his town read on Macro was strong enough to defend it. His defense of himself by giving a list of meta examples that his scum play is different is rather meh, since if the playstile changes are obvious, and he is aware of the difference, he can play against this meta whenever he likes. But such a playstile allows activity that i see from him for two days already - claim hunthing. During day 1 Fishy was following LS, but all those wagons died except for Macro. Next day was more productive, since he got 2-3 claims under the belt until the day ended (depending whether DCL is scum or not). Today he found two new targets.

A few questions/comments on this:
1) What exactly do you mean by equivocating/not taking stances/not having reads? I think I've taken quite a lot of stances throughout the game. If you mean that my reads haven't been that strong, and have changed quite a lot, then that's not too far wrong.
2a) Whatever your answer to 1), why is that a scumtell? As in, why do scum do it, and why aren't I just town whose scumreads haven't been that strong?
2b) You seem to think my play today, specifically, is scummy. I think I spent a few days catching up - and saying I was - and then started posting good content that took firm positions. Do you disagree with that assessment? Why is my play today likely to come from scum?
3) What's the contradiction between having weak scumreads and strong townreads? That's where I've been all game, and I don't see why it's unlikely or scummy at all. I find it much more common for people to do things that scum wouldn't do than things that town wouldn't do.
4) On meta: I only gave a meta defence because Magua's attack is entirely

a meta attack

- check out his posting on me. I've never asked anyone else to look at that meta, although if they do I certainly won't complain. What should I have done when Magua said "X is a meta scumtell for you" and I know that to be completely false?
5) So, you think I'm scum who wagons people for claims? Scum's main activities (IMO) are a) trying to look town and b) trying to lynch townies. How important do you think getting claims is compared to those? Imagine yourself as scum. Would "getting claims out of townies" ever be the principle that dictated your entire strategy?
6) A minor point, but if you check your D1 facts you'll find I did hop around a lot, but a lot of the time the wagons followed me rather than the other way round (IIRC on Rhinox, Malee and one other I was leading or early on the wagon). Characterising me as wagoning scum (or wagoning town) isn't accurate for a lot of the wagons I was on, so your picture of claim hunting scum doesn't fit that well.

A quick answer.
1)I remember you giving reads only once or twice during the first two days, and flip-flopping a lot.
2a) Did i tell it to be a scumtell? I said that it allows you to perform claim hunting, and that is a scumtell for me.
2b) Today your style is changing, but even when you voted me, your opinion on me was "Nothing kortul says is particularly scummy.", and you picked some commentary that later admitted to be not scummy. Your opinion on Magua was "I don't have many strong feelings about this slot". And once Magua called you on not taking stances and having firm reads, you said your scum reads are strong.
3) Again, did i tell it to be a contradiction? Just now looking back, i find it strange that Macro town read was strong enough to defend it, but scum reads were not strong enough to stick to them or pressure them.
4) Hmm, i'll check Magua and your posts again, i was writing from memory and thought his suspicions were mostly based on you being the experienced mafiascum player. Still, i remember that you posted several links pointing that your town and scum plays are different, so if such a difference exists, you can easily play around it. For experienced players tells based on meta are not reliable, that's why meta defense isn't reliable either. I just explained why i don't take your meta defense into consideration, but at the same time i don't take into consideration meta scumtells either.
5) I am relying on my RL experience, where finding power roles earlier is important for scum survival. Lastwill mechanics means that votes stay in the game, so i doubt scum would be happy to find too many conftown at the end of the game. And Macro flip was

One shot

vanilla cop, which means that scum is limited in a ways of finding who is dangerous for them.
6) Maybe i am wrong on this one, i don't remember exact vote order. But claim hunting can be done with starting wagons as well, though it is usually less productive.

[Voidedmafia]

Though, if Macro had lived to near-LyLo and hadn't used that shot, that would be a very useful ability. Sounds a lot like an ability that's better used for the late-game.

Still getting a feeling like Kortul's posts are good enough not to ping suspicions. I can't tell if it's careful scum or just his style of posting, unfortunately.

(last post from me, methinks. If so, peace out, cya Sunday/Monday)

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Also to be fair to DCL, I don't see your point -- I would want a claim from a lynch even if I thought they were scum, because I could be wrong.

There's just a discontinuity between his words and his actions; if you're sure about something and you want to blitz the potential scum then asking for an immediate claim is fine but then you wouldn't be worried about a quickhammer; but if you're nervous or unsure then you play it slow and you don't ask for a claim, you let someone else ask for a claim when they're ready to hammer. You don't get to play both sides of the coin; either you're aggresive and willing to live with a possible mistake or you play it conservative and surrender some of the credit and blame when things fall apart.

@DDD: I don't see a problem with SA's play near deadline. Compromising in a deadline lynch situation is sensible, and the fact that he was wrong (assuming you're town, which I pretty much do) doesn't make it scummy.

The problem isn't so much the compromise lynch (which is bad but understandable) but the fact that there was no reason I was the compromise lynch choice for him other than convenience. There's absolutely nothing in his posts in that time period that really suggested that he thought I was scum. Add that to his woefully inadequate play today and the things I mentioned in 969 and I'd still love to have a SA wagon.

~~

Haven't had a chance to do a recent Fishy/Magua readthrough; will try to get to that ASAP.

[kortul]

Will have limited access for two days, going on a business trip. Will be back on Friday.

[Magua]

OK. Why don't you think Macro was bussed?

Gut, at this point. A guess as to what the scum mindset would be. It's not impossible that he was bussed, it's just that I would expect that more only if scum had already secured two votes, and you weren't voting him and I don't think Rhinox is scum. So.

But I'm not really sweating it nor trying to convince anyone because everyone, afaik, thinks that there's at least 1 scum in the pool mentioned.

@Mod:

Kindly prod Sleepless Assassin.

[Fishythefish]

But... don't you think I'm scum? So scum

would

have secured two votes?

A quick answer.
1)I remember you giving reads only once or twice during the first two days, and flip-flopping a lot.
2a) Did i tell it to be a scumtell? I said that it allows you to perform claim hunting, and that is a scumtell for me.
2b) Today your style is changing, but even when you voted me, your opinion on me was "Nothing kortul says is particularly scummy.", and you picked some commentary that later admitted to be not scummy. Your opinion on Magua was "I don't have many strong feelings about this slot". And once Magua called you on not taking stances and having firm reads, you said your scum reads are strong.
3) Again, did i tell it to be a contradiction? Just now looking back, i find it strange that Macro town read was strong enough to defend it, but scum reads were not strong enough to stick to them or pressure them.
4) Hmm, i'll check Magua and your posts again, i was writing from memory and thought his suspicions were mostly based on you being the experienced mafiascum player. Still, i remember that you posted several links pointing that your town and scum plays are different, so if such a difference exists, you can easily play around it. For experienced players tells based on meta are not reliable, that's why meta defense isn't reliable either. I just explained why i don't take your meta defense into consideration, but at the same time i don't take into consideration meta scumtells either.
5) I am relying on my RL experience, where finding power roles earlier is important for scum survival. Lastwill mechanics means that votes stay in the game, so i doubt scum would be happy to find too many conftown at the end of the game. And Macro flip was

One shot

vanilla cop, which means that scum is limited in a ways of finding who is dangerous for them.
6) Maybe i am wrong on this one, i don't remember exact vote order. But claim hunting can be done with starting wagons as well, though it is usually less productive.

Thanks for this. So, a good summary is that you think I'm scum because I've flip-flopped a lot, and you think that comes from scum because they hunt from claims. Well, I have flip-flopped a lot, in fact because I'm town who's had weak scumreads for much of the game. I guess I don't have much to say in response; I don't think I've ever seen scum sticking their neck out significantly to get a claim, but that's my experience not yours. One thing that definitely doesn't tally with that picture - my play on DDD's claim. I went out of my way for him

not

to have to fullclaim.

Is there anything in particular that you don't think I'd have done as town?

I'm cool with you not taking the meta into consideration; I thought you were attacking me for posting it. On 3), I'm trying to work out why you find it strange - it's not that uncommon for people to have strong townreads and weak scumreads.

I was half ready to jump on kortul for what looked like a rather weak sheep of Magua, but this post makes me feel quite a bit better. His case is coherent, even if it's based on something I don't think is a scumtell at all, and I can see easily it coming from town.

[Magua]

But... don't you think I'm scum? So scum

would

have secured two votes?

I even say this: but you weren't voting him.

Mmmm, rereading, there's a brainfart there, I'm assuming that only the scum with two votes would be doing the bussing, which isn't necessarily true. But the way my mind was working, the scum with the votes would be the busser because they'd be doing it for towncred, in order to get more votes given to them. Pretty sure it's in the scum's interests to centralize the votes, especially if one of the scum is trying to appear uber-townie.

So if there was a bussing scum, I'd expect it to be you, and it's not, so I don't think there was a bussing scum.

Very roundabout rationalization. I do what I can.

[hiplop]

I really don't know who to vote for >_<

[Fishythefish]

But... don't you think I'm scum? So scum

would

have secured two votes?

I even say this: but you weren't voting him.

Mmmm, rereading, there's a brainfart there, I'm assuming that only the scum with two votes would be doing the bussing, which isn't necessarily true. But the way my mind was working, the scum with the votes would be the busser because they'd be doing it for towncred, in order to get more votes given to them. Pretty sure it's in the scum's interests to centralize the votes, especially if one of the scum is trying to appear uber-townie.

So if there was a bussing scum, I'd expect it to be you, and it's not, so I don't think there was a bussing scum.

Very roundabout rationalization. I do what I can.

OK. I was wondering if you'd accidentally revealed you don't actually think I'm scum, but the bit about me not voting for him means that's not right. Impressively convoluted logic (in a pretty alignment-neutral way, since you're not pushing anything with it).

[LlamaFluff]

Sleepless Assassin prodded

kortul is V/LA through 5/18
Voidedmafia is V/LA through 5/20

[Fishythefish]

The problem isn't so much the compromise lynch (which is bad but understandable) but the fact that there was no reason I was the compromise lynch choice for him other than convenience. There's absolutely nothing in his posts in that time period that really suggested that he thought I was scum. Add that to his woefully inadequate play today and the things I mentioned in 969 and I'd still love to have a SA wagon.

Sorry, missed this.

At that point, it was you or Macro - no other wagons had more than a vote. SA didn't have much of a stance on you, but he had talked about a serious Macro townread. In fact, I asked him at the time and he said

Fish, it's down to macro and DDD for today's lynch. DDD is a slight scum read for me and Macro is a strong town read. Easy choice.

Although, I actually now realise this was a fair way out from deadline.

@SA: why did you move onto a "better than nothing" lynch with quite a bit of time left in the day?

On his play today: I don't think doing nothing and admitting it is a good scumtell. Sometimes you just don't have time for a game. It's frustrating, but I think it's much more commonly genuine (from scum or town) than tactical from scum.