Mini 1316 - Last Will Mafia IV (Over)


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Post Post #1175 (ISO) » Sun May 20, 2012 3:54 pm

Post by LlamaFluff »

Vote Count

Sleepless Assassin (6) - Debonair Danny DiPietro, hiplop, Magua, Voidedmafia
Magua (2) - fishythefish
fishythefish (1) - kortul
kortul (1) - DCLXVI

Not Voting (3) - Sleepless Assassin, rhinox

With 13 votes in play it takes 7 to lynch

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Post Post #1176 (ISO) » Sun May 20, 2012 4:15 pm

Post by DCLXVI »

In post 1167, Sleepless Assassin wrote:-Void=maybe actually scum now


Are you reading the same game as the rest of us?
Sarcasm is
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Post Post #1177 (ISO) » Sun May 20, 2012 4:16 pm

Post by Voidedmafia »

In post 1176, DCLXVI wrote:
In post 1167, Sleepless Assassin wrote:-Void=maybe actually scum now


Are you reading the same game as the rest of us?

Hey, now, don't discourage him...
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Post Post #1178 (ISO) » Mon May 21, 2012 3:24 am

Post by Rhinox »

proddodge while waiting for SA...
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Post Post #1179 (ISO) » Mon May 21, 2012 9:48 am

Post by kortul »

This evening i finally managed to find time to do thorough ISO on Fishy. I remembered what i thought was strange in Fishy defense post on Macro - at that moment Macro wasn't his strong townread, in the post "Macro generally looks town." There were some comments in other posts that felt out of place, but maybe i am just biased. I still don't like that claimhunting activity. But no one else commented on this, so i will ponder whether this tell applies to forum scumhunting, with lastwill mechanics in mind.

On the other hand his advice to 4nx in post 933 is good, and i doubt that first reaction of scum to mason claim would be giving such an advice. Also, i agree with his reaction to SA today.

I don't see SA as scum, and i am less sure of Fishy scum, so DCL being town because of counterwagon on him is less logical now, which brings him back as my main suspect. I don't like his play on Days 2 and 3, and will do his ISO next.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: DCLXVI
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Post Post #1180 (ISO) » Mon May 21, 2012 10:02 am

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Forgot to answer Fishy.

In post 1094, Fishythefish wrote:One thing that definitely doesn't tally with that picture - my play on DDD's claim. I went out of my way for him
not
to have to fullclaim.
I think you would do this regardless of alignment, because of this:
In post 936, Fishythefish wrote:Excitement is fair - I like claims (and information-ish situations generally), because it's a part of the game I enjoy.
This was a challenge for your imagination, so not asking for full claim doesn't make you more town or more scum.
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Post Post #1181 (ISO) » Mon May 21, 2012 10:36 am

Post by Sleepless Assassin »

Magua, I felt I had a better grip on the game Days 1 and 2. I have no free time and my top scum read ended up being a mason and I had a strong town read on someone who flipped scum. Basically I have a ton to look at and not so much time to do it. The reason I haven't layed a vote is because if I were to do so, I'm not even sure where it would land. Maybe DCL. Maybe fish. Maybe rhinox.
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Post Post #1182 (ISO) » Mon May 21, 2012 3:11 pm

Post by DCLXVI »

@SA, so, when do you think you will be able to finish the analysis you were planning on doing. Not meaning to rush you, but at the same time you are at L-1 so yeah...
Sarcasm is
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Post Post #1183 (ISO) » Tue May 22, 2012 4:13 am

Post by Rhinox »

Well he's probably not lying about not having time. I mean, I had to go all the way back to April 5th in his profile to find a post anywhere on site outside this game.

But... I'm noticing a lot of similarities between SA's last 10 posts or so and how I played the last time I was scum. I really was busy then too, but I made lots of "I don't know who's scum and I haven't had time to figure it out yet" posts, and I even gave half finished reads posts on players, similar to SA #1167. I know my own self-meta on how I've played as scum is about as useful to determining SA's alignment as, well, something really un-useful like this shitty metaphor I guess. But its not going to make me not hammer is what I'm trying to say.


I'm a little concerned about the complacency in this lynch though. I think magua's "fake hammer" gambit was definitely town motivated, and I was annoyed all-but-conf-town-voided was right there to shut it down before SA has a chance to react. I mean, I guess scum-magua could hypothetically make the move to set scum partner SA up to fake a town reaction to being hammered but meh... If he wanted to save SA it'd be less risky to do it by not actually voting him. I generally thought alice was town as well, but retrospectively the way she sheeped me and voted hiplop looks bad. But I think page 15 is about the time where I considered alice town for good. And now that we know theo's alignment, I don't think his flipflopping read on alice is something that would signify scum partners.


I'm still suspicious about the absence of hiplop, but its been nearly 48hrs since his last prod so maybe we're getting a replacement there soon? Regardless, no one else but me seems very concerned about it so :shrug:
Mod: did hiplop pick up his prod?



Currently reevaluating whether I still believe DCL is town. Day's 1 and 2 up to being the counterwagon to macro-scum all still look solid town to me. I read funky as town. If by some chance he is scum, that would make him a scum counterwagon to scum macro. Starting with D3, the flip from 979 to 999 (iso 45-46) seems a bit extreme, which was already noticed by magua and explained so nothing more to add there. Putting kortul at L-2, asking for a claim. I don't really have a problem with either of that. I don't really get when the whole "only someone threatening to hammer is allowed to ask for a claim" BS started around the site here. I am wondering though why up til that point in the day DCL had been ignoring SA after listing him as one of 2 scum suspects in his first post of the day. Actuallt skimming the rest of DCL's iso he doesn't talk about SA at all after his first post of the day until he's ready to hammer in #1135, and as far as I can tell, the only reasoning he's ever given for voting SA is OMGUS / because SA started the cw on him.

So I guess for a tl;dr: Not as impressed with DCL's D3, but I'm still thinking he's town based on D1/D2 stuff with him and funky.


Taking a first glance at fishy iso, mostly skimming because there is a lot there. Very early stuff (iso 4, 5, and 6 ish) I was looking at him sideways (my natural unsurpressed response to anyone voting me when I know they're wrong). I didn't like the whole "Rhinox joking around a lot may be a scum tell let me check meta" followed by "well thats really not a good scumtell for rhinox but here's something else vote: rhinox" exchange that went on, but it was way early and ever since fishy got a town read on me in 56 he's been calling me town ever since, which is probably more a sign of townfishy than scumfishy. 174 is interesting in light of malee/macro scum. That was the "Malee flaked maybe we should just lynch her" comment. Could have been distancing / for town cred. I don't think if I made that statment I'd be thinking anyone would actually take it seriously and lynch someone who's being replaced. In 203 he admits it was only semi-serious.

I'm looking at the section of fishy's iso where he votes theo in 390, then unvotes 404 after macro replaces in, then votes macro again in 451 putting him at L-1 asking for claim/lynch/etc, then unvotes to think about the "non-VT" claim, then votes again after deciding macro was still scummy and "non-VT" was unacceptable as a claim and asks for a full claim, then unvotes after the VT claim. I'm trying to decide if all that makes sense with fishy as a scum partner, and I'm thinking probably not, but I don't know if I really know why I think so.

Skimming through the rest of fishy iso - nothing to complain about. Doesn't really look like scum to me.


Right now I'm kinda thinking magua vs fishy is town-town which has me back to SA+kortul for scum by POE, with hiplop as the bonus choice.

SA has about 24hrs to say something useful, or I'm hammering tomorrow morning.
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Post Post #1184 (ISO) » Tue May 22, 2012 6:55 am

Post by kortul »

Rhinox, this time you are coming to the wrong conclusions using POE, but since our views on certain events are different, i don't see how to show this atm.
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Post Post #1185 (ISO) » Tue May 22, 2012 7:44 am

Post by LlamaFluff »

hiplop has not picked up his prod and is being replaced
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Post Post #1186 (ISO) » Tue May 22, 2012 8:07 am

Post by Voidedmafia »

I happened to be there when he did it, and just reacted accordingly. I honestly doubt that SA would've been in any way concerned if he saw Mag's previous vote before that, though.

As for complacency, I admit that Macro's flip didn't give me the traction I wanted, though this was in part helped by non-Mafia circumstances (like a sudden wave of apathy and burnout that seems to be hitting me more frequently than I'd really like at the beginning of the day).

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Post Post #1187 (ISO) » Tue May 22, 2012 9:27 am

Post by Sleepless Assassin »

I might be able to post tonight from my parents' house if I feel like making my girlfriend just kind of sit there lol
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Post Post #1188 (ISO) » Tue May 22, 2012 9:34 am

Post by Voidedmafia »

I doubt you want to die anytime soon, so she can understand.
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Post Post #1189 (ISO) » Tue May 22, 2012 9:42 am

Post by Rhinox »

In post 1184, kortul wrote:Rhinox, this time you are coming to the wrong conclusions using POE, but since our views on certain events are different, i don't see how to show this atm.

Which events?
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Post Post #1190 (ISO) » Tue May 22, 2012 10:24 am

Post by Sleepless Assassin »

In post 1188, Voidedmafia wrote:I doubt you want to die anytime soon, so she can understand.


^lol.

yeah, I'm doing that post now. The goal for tonight is to finish the read on Macro's posts, check out the vote counts on at least the end of the days if not a little more and if I have any energy and haven't been on here too long, I'll check out ISOs with ctrl+f for malee, theo, and macro.
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Post Post #1191 (ISO) » Tue May 22, 2012 11:23 am

Post by Fishythefish »

I'm really struggling to see a decent case against SA. He hasn't done anything today, but I don't see that as saying anything about his alignment. He "settled" on a DDD vote early yesterday, but not ludicrously so. Actually, I really think he's town for this exchange:
In post 1114, Sleepless Assassin wrote:DDD, right now, probably fish, then magua, then me. Like I said, fish mirroring me when I was so wrong probably isn't coincidence. Magua is next because he fits as a macro buddy if I take everyone else's word for it. I'm last because I know my role.

In post 1115, Fishythefish wrote:@SA: why is me mirroring you "probably not coincidence"? Why I couldn't I just have been thinking the same things as you? IIRC, there was a point where you said something like "Fishy said what I was thinking about the Macro case, but better". Why does us being wrong change that so much?

In post 1117, Sleepless Assassin wrote:Fish, I don't know honestly. I've just got a funny feeling about it.

Because I exactly get a "funny feeling" that makes me want to think SA is scum because we shared the same wrong opinion. I think it comes from wanting to shift the blame for being wrong, and I've been trying to suppress it because I'm pretty sure it's illogical and doesn't reflect on SA's alignment. I can't see scumSA thinking to make this up, since it's pretty massively weak as a point against me and doesn't help him at all, so I think he's town on the same wavelength as me.

Reviewing Magua, I still think that his attacks on me are absolutely awful - I won't rehash why here, just see my ISO. But I really can't see anything else that makes me think he's scum, and other people who I think are town and think can think don't see Magua's play on me as hugely scummy. So, I guess I'm all out of strong scumreads - scumpool remains Magua, kortul, SA, hiplop in about that order, but I'm not particularly enthused by any of them.

I'll try to think about things in more detail tomorrow. After that I fear my access will be bad until deadline.
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Post Post #1192 (ISO) » Tue May 22, 2012 11:27 am

Post by Sleepless Assassin »

Ok, so Macro's ISO:
ISO 0: the random vote on void is very interesting at that stage in the game. His slot is under suspicion so it absolutely had to be in his mind that he could die soon and knowing he'd flip scum, he had to have figured the post would be looked at. Could he have been setting up Void to look like his buddy? Or maybe trying to get Void to over react and look bad? Regardless of what he was doing, I don't see anything that makes sense for Void to actually be his scumbuddy unless it was a weird distancing thing.

ISO 1: The catchup post.
Macro wrote:Fishy, Nacho and Debonair look town.

Based on Page 1 of his read. Nacho has already flipped town and DDD is likely town due to his claim. Would Macro give three town reads who are actually town? Slight scum points for fish.

Eh, Fishy's vote doesn't make sense, but he's likely town for other stuff.

Almost seems like he's excusing things that he sees fish doing that are scummy. Either he wants to keep his read consistant and thought fish's Page 1 was supertown or he's a buddy who wants to keep his town read. Really starting to believe this Macro-Fish connection quite a bit more now.

macro wrote:
@Sleepless 86 Was Fishy suspicion still vibe-based at this point?

Should be obvious why I'm pointing out that Macro decided to bold this.

Um... Kortul's top of 112 is all "Look how town I am!" but the number of no reads (or equivalent) make this questionable.

Kortul's looking more like town, but:
At around 164 What exactly were your thoughts on Malee? Why did you not want to contribute them to discussion?

ISO 4:
I'm quite liking Kortul.

The first of these three quotes looks kind of like he finds it scummy but doesn't want to. Then he says Kort is a town read. Macro-Fish-Kort team maybe?

I've been feeling a bit iffy about Rhinox. Read under consideration.

I'm not liking Rhinox's change of vote from hiplop after fishy says they are town v town. I could see him as scum thinking "Well I don't need to be involved in that anymore." Still, I'm really waiting for the chance to ISO him before changing my townread.

After calling Rhinox town all through ISO 1, which I didn't see as notable until this. Let's see where it went though.

Debonair, did your vote on theo have anything to do with Voided?

Ok, Macro definitely wanted Void to look like a buddy after his flip. This is obviously intentional.

ISO 7: He has two lists. "Some form of town read" and "others". I GUARANTEE that one buddy is on each list OR both are "some form of town read" with the first being most likely:
Macro's town list, minus dead townies:
Fishy
Kortul
Sleepless
Hiplop

Macro's "other" list of those still alive:
Rhinox
DCL
DDD
Void

^
Guys, please look back at this list later in the game.
The most this tells me at the moment considering I have DDD and Void as town already, is that DCL and Rhinox are NOT BOTH scum. What it also tells me is that there is a good chance one of them is. But...{Fish, Kort, hip} is a pretty solid scum set right now. 1-2 scum guaranteed means at least a 33% chance. Yeah, I'm voting Fish at the end of this post.

Rhinox-> There are many things that make me think town, but there are enough things that make me question my initial read. I think that the attacking of hiplop is scummy and then withdrawing his vote and never returning to the issue. The other main thing is his vote and lasting suspicion on me. He doesn't agree with the reasons other people have for suspecting me, but has his own thing. He's too unaware of other people's thoughts and too concerned with having unique reasoning. Also his reasoning is bad. It's much easier for scum to vote off wagons than attract attention from joining a main one (especially one that was previously considered a townread)
More scummy, is that he's somehow gained a sustained scumread from this. He mentions my catch-up posts as making him have doubts of the slot, which suggests he was reasonably confident of us being scum. I don't see how town-Rhinox could have gotten there and I think scum tend to be more "jumpy" with their suspicions. (as in somehow getting a scumread off one thing and not really considering things properly).


It really seems like Macro likes to post the disclaimer that Rhinox is a town read before he criticizes any part of his play. As of right now, I think Rhinox is the other buddy.

ISO 14:
And you've pretty clearly lost your marbles.

^In response to hip calling him "pretty clearly scum". At first, I wanted to say a post like this comes from frustrated scum who is upset at the town players voting them, but could this be anger towards a buddy who is bussing? Hip seems certain Macro will flip scum. Meh. Not sure now.

ISO 16:
Alice, why do you think I'm scum?

Trying to get a townie to change their mind.
Alice
Magua is town.

ISO 22/31:
@Hiplop Can you say a short few sentences on why you think I'm scum?

@hiplop Why are you still alive?????

Ok, hip is town.

ISO 37:
There are only three people I don't have some sort of townread on: DDD, Voided, Rhinox, but I'm pretty sure they can't all be scum together. DDD and Voided are probably the stronger two scumreads and I'll explain why a bit later.

^Noting Rhinox there as the last option. I'm starting to be confident in Rhinoxscum now. Maybe more confident than Fishscum.

ISO 46:
@DCL: Do you have your own thoughts on why it's suspicious or are you just copying everyone else? (The latter is ok btw)

really looking for an opinion, trying to look like he wants an opinion to look town, or coaching a buddy? Hmm.

ISO 49:
You haven't, but the way you've done it is scummy.

I remember this little exchange with DCL and I'm starting to think DCLtown.

ISO 54:
Reasonably Strong Townreads:

4nxi3ty
Fishy
hiplop (the only thing about him is that he seems different from how I've seen him play before, so I'm not that sure, but logic says he's town)
kortul
Sleepless


Hmm. List hasn't changed since the first one.

ISO 68:
@Kortul: It's not rude of you to ask. I'm male, but what difference does it make to you?

Kort asking this looks like genuinely trying to read Macro. Gonna go ahead and say he's town.

So.

Conclusions based on a Macro ISO:
Rhinox and Fish are scum.

Vote Fish


It shouldn't be that easy, but Macro did a lot of rambling and gave us a ton of useful info. I'm actually pretty confident in this.

And glancing at Fish's list, it's not even close to mine. Hip and Magua fit as buddies??? Rhinox and Kort "pretty badly"??? DCL very badly??? Then again, Fish did look at everyone else's posts too, not just Macro's.

Meh.

My eyes hurt and I don't feel like doing more right now. I'd still like to:
-ISO everyone else, starting with Fish and Rhinox, with a focus on Macro's slot
-Check out vote counts, although this may not be quite as necessary with the info I get from ISOing.

If I don't get to do that, I understand. I feel I've figured out who the scum are anyway. I'd love to sit here and say "look at this after I'm dead" and say how right I am and all that, but I know once I die, I'm ignored. So I guess here's my thoughts and do with them what you will. If I'm still alive the next chance I have, I'll look a little deeper at the game.

Honestly though, I'm kind of curious and confused as far as why this hasn't been brought up. DDD, Hip, Magua, and Void. Can you list your reasons for thinking I am scum? I don't think I've seen anything yet.
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Post Post #1193 (ISO) » Tue May 22, 2012 11:30 am

Post by Sleepless Assassin »

[qupte="fish"]Because I exactly get a "funny feeling" that makes me want to think SA is scum because we shared the same wrong opinion. I think it comes from wanting to shift the blame for being wrong, and I've been trying to suppress it because I'm pretty sure it's illogical and doesn't reflect on SA's alignment. I can't see scumSA thinking to make this up, since it's pretty massively weak as a point against me and doesn't help him at all, so I think he's town on the same wavelength as me.[/quote]

Gah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Why do you have to make this much sense right after I wrap up that last post...........
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Post Post #1194 (ISO) » Tue May 22, 2012 11:32 am

Post by Sleepless Assassin »

unvote, vote rhinox


I want to stick my vote where I'm most confident.
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Post Post #1195 (ISO) » Tue May 22, 2012 8:27 pm

Post by Voidedmafia »

Rhinox is not dying today. No way. Perhaps I could hop on that wagon another day, but not today. Fishy has a better chance of dying today than him.

To me, there's three choices in this order (somewhat): Magua, you, or Fishy, with DCL weaving in and out of there as my mind wanders (yes, I know he makes four, but he's not consistently in the lineup). What you've done so far is good for an unvote, at least. I think I said this before (though I may not have), but my vote was either gonna go to "horribly bad case with no chance" Mag or "little nothings that add up to being useless now" you.

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Post Post #1196 (ISO) » Wed May 23, 2012 12:41 am

Post by kortul »

@Voided - i wasn't even able to convince Rhinox that he is wrong in the interpretation of my own actions, there's even less chance that he will agree with my view on others. I disagree with his view on DCL, and i am still researching DCL. But since SA lynch isn't so imminent now, hopefully i will be able to finish the research and address the points where i disagree.

@Rhinox - i was suspicious of funky, and i definitely don't agree that DCL play on Day 2 was solid town. I remember you thinking funky is town from the Day 1, and there were not many posts made by him, so i doubt we will persuade each other to change our opinion here. But i will give a try on DCL play once i finish my research.

I am glad SA was able to start his own research and post the first results - as i said in my read on him, it
is
a view from a different angle. Will read more carefully in the evening.
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Sleepless Assassin
Mafia Scum
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Sleepless Assassin
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
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Post Post #1197 (ISO) » Wed May 23, 2012 5:46 am

Post by Sleepless Assassin »

Can everyone give me a one-liner on what they think of Rhinox?

If it's as unrealistic a lynch as void says it is, I can switch to fish. Also, gonna try to pound out some more analysis some time in the next few hours.
3-2 as scum and 5-8 as town

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Debonair Danny DiPietro
Debonair Danny DiPietro
Jack of All Trades
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Debonair Danny DiPietro
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Post Post #1198 (ISO) » Wed May 23, 2012 5:53 am

Post by Debonair Danny DiPietro »

In post 1192, Sleepless Assassin wrote:Honestly though, I'm kind of curious and confused as far as why this hasn't been brought up. DDD, Hip, Magua, and Void. Can you list your reasons for thinking I am scum? I don't think I've seen anything yet.


This is at least part of the reason why I'm voting for you.

In post 1195, Voidedmafia wrote:What you've done so far is good for an unvote, at least.


Really? You put someone at L-1 and tell them they're going to die if they don't produce content; they produce content and somehow that changes your opinion of them? What else was he going to do with all that time?
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Fishythefish
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Post Post #1199 (ISO) » Wed May 23, 2012 6:35 am

Post by Fishythefish »

Missed/forgot a couple of things:
In post 1180, kortul wrote:Forgot to answer Fishy.

In post 1094, Fishythefish wrote:One thing that definitely doesn't tally with that picture - my play on DDD's claim. I went out of my way for him
not
to have to fullclaim.
I think you would do this regardless of alignment, because of this:
In post 936, Fishythefish wrote:Excitement is fair - I like claims (and information-ish situations generally), because it's a part of the game I enjoy.
This was a challenge for your imagination, so not asking for full claim doesn't make you more town or more scum.

Sure, wanting to figure out the role is definitely alignment neutral for me. I was just thinking that the evil claim-hunting scumFishy would want DDD to claim - although I can't say for sure, because he doesn't actually exist.

In post 1183, Rhinox wrote:That was the "Malee flaked maybe we should just lynch her" comment. Could have been distancing / for town cred. I don't think if I made that statment I'd be thinking anyone would actually take it seriously and lynch someone who's being replaced. In 203 he admits it was only semi-serious.

That statement was a half-hearted bitch at the way people forget their scumreads when someone replaces in, and saying we shouldn't let a very scummy slot off the hook. Which I then, of course, proceeded to do. It's hard to see how it would get towncred (or how I'd think it would) - it was never going to look like a serious attempt to lynch Malee.

@SA: yeah, I didn't see Macro's ramblings as as useful as you do - I really don't think many of those one line quotes say much about the alignment of the players concerned. I think people's play on Macro is far more useful - because the wagon was on him, and so the decisions scum took about whether to bus were important - and so my Macro-links are based pretty much entirely off that. Plus counter-wagons - it's likely that DCL and DDD are town because they were the serious rivals to Macro yesterday.

Voided is correct that Rhinox isn't getting lynched.

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