Mini 1316 - Last Will Mafia IV (Over)

[Voidedmafia]

...I never said such a thing, RHinox. Actually, I didn't even comment on the claim.

[Voidedmafia]

Well, that does explain why rhinox would hammer without a claim.

This is the guy you want, not me.

Speaking of DCL, though, I really doubt it's Fish/anyone. It's still possible, but I'm not holding my breath.

[DCLXVI]

DCL: fishy and magua? You really think that makes any sense?

It's simply PoE

Voided is town,
DDD is town
You (Rhinox) are likely town
I'm town.

that leaves three fishy, magua, and kortul. The day one ending votecount strongly suggests that both kortul and magua are not both scum. Therefor

Fishy/magua, or Fishy/kortul are the only remaining possibilities. I think that actually does make sense.

[Rhinox]

Well, that does explain why rhinox would hammer without a claim.

This is the guy you want, not me.

yeah just mixed up names in my head I had it right by the end of the post

Fishy/magua, or Fishy/kortul are the only remaining possibilities. I think that actually does make sense.

And how does this pissing match thats been going on b/w fishy and magua fit into it? Its all an act?

[Magua]

How the fuck was hiplop a mason?

[DCLXVI]

And how does this pissing match thats been going on b/w fishy and magua fit into it? Its all an act?

They could be bussing each other. I think that is a completely possible option.

[Voidedmafia]

How the fuck was hiplop a mason?

Somehow, I figured you'd have a bit more coming into today. Still holding out for it, but now I don't think it's likely. I still feel you're the better lynch.

DCL, Fishy is, like, the last possible suspect for scum this game. Most of the fights he's been in I can't see coming from him being scum, and he's only scum if you, Mag, and/or Kortul aren't and because PoE dictates Rhinox nor DDD are scum. Unless we get to 3-man LyLo where we've only gotten one scum from the pool of (DCL, Magua, Kortul), I'm not going to support a Fishy lynch nor will I advocate one. Or something.

P-EDIT:...not very likely.

[Magua]

Voided, are you a mason or not?

[kortul]

*sigh* I was writing my thoughts, and somehow text just disappeared. Will try again, though i am dead tired after work and 2 hours of soccer, so it will be just first impressions for today.

At night I was thinking about SA provocation and Rhinox reaction. Initial impression was that it came from town. Then i noticed 4 hours difference, which means that Rhinox had plenty of time to do an ISO. I did the same, and realized that SA play on day 3 was against his guilty claim, so there's good chance that Rhinox comment was carefully prepared and tells nothing about alignment. But today Rhinox volunteered and said that he played along, which again makes him more town in my eyes.

That means my scum pool didn't change - DCL, Fishy and Magua. But DCL surprised me by switching back to Fishy, will think tomorrow how that fits DCL-scum scenario. Yesterday lynch did some changes to my wagons analysis. Magua/Alicewondering remains as the only player who was present on both town lynches, and absent from scum lynch. That strongly trigers my RL experience alarms.

I have thought already about the possibility that Fishy and Magua are just bussing each other, but that makes sense only if they would go to extreme, for everyone to believe that once one will flip scum another would become obvtown. And that is hard to achieve, the act have to be perfect.

1am, last thought before going to bed - i don't like both Magua posts today. He is surprised by the fact that hiplop was mason, not by the fact that hiplop was killed instead of Voided/DDD. And why on earth ask Voided whether he is mason? Basicly that's just plain asking for a claim.

[Magua]

I fully expected Voided to die last night.

I'm surprised a) that hiplop was a mason, and b) that he was shot in preference to Voided.

Even assuming that the scum knew that hiplop was a mason, shooting him in preference to Voided is just bizarre.

And yes, I am asking for a claim. Deal with it.

[Voidedmafia]

To be frank, on that point, I don't blame him. As I said in my first post today, I fully expected to die, or if not me, DDD.

I don't think there's much point in not answering the question now, anyways, as I'm probably going to die tonight for sure (uness they pick DDD, of course), so yes, I am a Mason.

Kortul: Mag's pretty clear-cut scum, I think. Post 1259 is farily null alignment-wise, as I think any sane player would question last night's kill choice, and is a reasonable explanation form Post 1257, but the case outlined D3 still stands.

[kortul]

I just don't see any reasonable logic behind the question. Let's suppose he will answer you, and say yes. Do you really expect someone to counterclaim him and paint bulls eye on himself? If not, then the only way to check the validity of the answer is to either lynch him(?), or wait for his death at night. And if the scum will left him alone at night again, then what - let's lynch him? Can't say for everyone, but Voided is town for me because of his play, not the possibility that he is mason.

If Voided is so suspicious that the only thing that is holding you is the possibility that he is mason, then say so and present the case or your suspicions. Because you have no way to check his answer anyway.

P-Edit. So he did answer yes. Magua, can you tell now the logic behind the question?

[kortul]

@Voided - 1259 are mostly thoughts about night, which is an explanation of 1254, how it is the reasonable explanation of 1257? He just said that he is asking for a claim, and i fail to see why. I doubt scum have two cops, and Macro was one-shot, so even if scum knew hiplop to be mason, they had no way to know whether you are the mason or not, so how your answer can shed the light on night actions? And if it can't then what is the reason for a question?

[Fishythefish]

A 3 man masonry in a 13 player game? Seems extremely powerful - 3 confirmed town out the blocks is huge. And more so with this mechanic. The way the dead masons both left Voided their votes is the only thing that makes me wonder if it's real - he's definitely

not

obvtown if not a mason. I think for now it's best to wait and see if he's alive tomorrow.

So. People who I'd consider voting for, in order:
- Magua. His slot has excellent links to our dead scumbag, and his attacks on me - and his way of addressing my replies - was appalling.
- kortul. I think he played a really townish yesterday - he was pushing an unpopular wagon in a genuine looking way, and just seemed to be scumhunting. His defence to me/Rhinox was ok. My instinct is that he's town, but not so hugely that I can rule him out in this PoE-tastic game.
- DCL. The main reason I've been dismissing DCL is that he was a potential counterwagon to Macro. But at this stage, it's certain (FMPOV) that if he was

only

Macro voted him from the scumteam. That seems fairly odd if it was an attempt to save Macro. I definitely need to have a good read of DCL's play - I don't really have much of an opinion right now.

I'm pretty certain I want to
VOTE: Magua

I'll have another weekend of poor access this weekend. Sorry about that.

[Voidedmafia]

And if I am alive tomorro, Fishy? I'm not overly doubting it, but provided they don't do another bizarro shot, I think DDD is the other likely person in the crosshairs. though, I'm having some doubts about how likely, but he still seems to be the choice over anyone else except me.

Kortul: Why are you asking me? I don't know.

[kortul]

Well, my 1261 questioning was directed to Magua, i was distracted several time so you posted in between. And in 1262 i asked you how 1259 is a reasonable explanation of 1257 (maybe it is and i just don't see that), you should know your thoughts - or did i misunderstood your comment there?

[Fishythefish]

On further reflection, I'm not sure about my last post. A 3 man masonry seems way too strong.

UNVOTE:

@Rhinox, Magua, anyone: my feeling is that 3 masons would be very unbalanced in a 13 player game where solid townreads are awesome things to have. Do you agree?

[Voidedmafia]

Kortul:...Bah, forget it. We're just going to confuse each other at this rate.

Fishy: Op, maybe (I wouldn't be able to judge that), but it's true.

[kortul]

Fishy, this is the first time i play with masons, so while logically i understand the idea behind masonry, so far i am not that impressed to think that 3 is way too much. So far his claim is believable, but to be sure i will check cross references between 4nx - Vincent/Voided and hiplop-Vincent/Voided. I will be busy the rest of the day, will make it in the evening or tomorrow (depends on how often they interacted).

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

@Rhinox, Magua, anyone: my feeling is that 3 masons would be very unbalanced in a 13 player game where solid townreads are awesome things to have. Do you agree?

I know Friends and Enemies (3 goons, 3 masons, 6/7 VTs) plays in the Open Queue pretty regularly and is thus considered roughly balanced. Adding one quirky role to the town side and one minor investigative role to the scum side probably doesn't change the balance much (assuming there are no other PRs). And I can understand the Last Will part, but it also provides a massive swing if Voided does get lynched of killed that might benefit town but also might break the game open for scum.

My opinion is this: why would hiplop/imaginality/UberNinja give Voided his vote if he wasn't a mason? Sure 4nxiety could've been trying to pull a double move by giving his vote to Voided but if that was the case, why wouldn't hiplop/imaginality/UberNinja give their vote to someone else so Voided couldn't make this claim. Instead he/they gave their vote to Voided indicating pretty strongly that they feel that not only is he town, but he's town worthy of having three total votes.

[Magua]

Three-man masonry can be fine if that's pretty much all the power that we have.

All of this assumes Voided-mason.

The part that gets me is Voided letting the Day end without even the hint that there was another mason, and then the scum killing hiplop instead of him.
Like, in a normal world, scum kill Voided, he leaves his 2 votes to hiplop, hiplop now has three votes and is a viable mislynch candidate.

But instead, this. It's possible that Macrophage had used his shot on hiplop and so knew he wasn't vanilla N1, but if they were willing to kill 4nxiety over hiplop N2, why hiplop over Voided N3?

I had thought *for sure* that hiplop had expressed some suspicion of Voided at the start of D3, but now I simply cannot find it. hiplop never questions Voided being obvtown or comments on it one way or the other, which I guess is the strongest indicator that I'm being paranoid, but the whole thing feels weird.

[Rhinox]

I don't think I have enough setup experience to say whether 3 masons is OP with the Last Will mechanic. If I had to guess I'd say its not. Looking through the past LW games, town won LW3 which was a mini and no masons (but had a cop). Scum won LW2 but it was a large so not really relevant here. I can't find LW1 and the search function doesn't seem to be doing what its supposed to be doing .

But I think whats more telling is that both flipped masons passed votes to voided, and a quick ctrl+f scan of all 3 of their isos doesn't show me anything that contradicts the claim.

I don't know if a scum mason is something we should be worried about as this is a theme game and not under the normalcy rules. Probably should have asked 4nx if allignments were confirmed when he first claimed.

Nevermind that actually was answered by 4nx.

I think probably voided is a mason.

[DCLXVI]

Three mason's isn't op for town if that is pretty much all we have. voided is town.

[kortul]

Guess my impression that 3 masons isn't something overpowered was correct.

I did a check of Vincent/Voided - hiplop/4nx interactions. Overall impression - Voided is telling the truth:
Vincent at first though that hiplop was leaning scum, then hiplop become neutral, Voided mentioned hiplop once or twice, nothing negative. hiplop almost didn't react to Vincent, and completely ignored Voided.
Both Vincent and Voided completely ignored 4nx. 4nx commented "vincent's malee vote and reasoning looked good as well, though his comments about hiplop didn't quite sit right with me.", after that both Vincent and Voided were town to him, he almost ignored them.

The fact that both 4nx and hiplop left the voted to Voided is also telling.

Last post of Magua makes more sense for me, some of his thoughts mirror mine, but i still don't understand why ask for a claim? We could speculate on whether this setup is believable without it.

[LlamaFluff]

VC bump