Newbie 1248 (GAME OVER)

[Axxle]

There were a lot of other problems with Kalbim's post, SoraAdvent. You're coming off as too defensive (therefore slightly scummy). I agree with your conclusion though. I also second Hyperion's motion.

No worries Hyperion, I'm getting used to the speed of the game and a day doesn't feel that long anymore.

Just to get a little meta: I asked in my first game but just wanted to verify: Replacements are a more Null tell, correct? I had assumed that Vanilla Town is more likely to replace out (as the more boring role) but I was told that's not the case.

PEdit: I see wombat has posted, I'll respond in a sec.

[Axxle]

Don't really know what to say, I feel like I've said my thoughts about some of this previously.

Re: Kablim. His second post seems rushed, I attribute that to panic for being called out on his off the wall first post. And I think scum is more likely to panic in that situation than town.

[SoraAdvent]

Hyperion, sorry for not replying to your question earlier. I think that Arinna is definitely town, from the way he/she talks in her posts, and the amount of contribution the user's made to the discussion. Seacore seems like the leader in the group, but from the way he talks, his intentions do not seem to be to sway the vote in the mafia's favor. So, town. Hyperion, you seem to be definitely pro-town, as you ask a lot of questions towards everyone. That's all for now.

[LordChronos]

Just to get a little meta: I asked in my first game but just wanted to verify: Replacements are a more Null tell, correct? I had assumed that Vanilla Town is more likely to replace out (as the more boring role) but I was told that's not the case.

Replacements are absolutely a null tell. Case in point: my last newbie game I replaced into a slot which had already seen one replacement. That slot was jailkeeper.

@Arinna

Counterclaiming absolutely can be beneficial for town. A 1-1 trade with scum is a good thing for us. Whether or not to counterclaim of course depends on your role and the situation of the game. Day 1 is a worse time to counterclaim as town (or scum, as Seacore said). If you are perceived as scummy and thus unlikely to be believed and the other guy is not it might be better to bide your time and try to get a confirmable result (more applicable to non-Newbie games).

@kalbim

Picking a fight with someone happens between two town and two mafia all the time. It doesn't make either member of the fight confirmed anything. Why is arguing with people a scumtell?

[AGar]

Sorry for the delay. PMs have been sitting in my inbox for about 18 hours, :/.

ChaosOmega replaces Mortontfrh. Welcome him.

Votecount incoming.

[AGar]

Votecount 1.06

SoraAdvent

(0) -

Axxle

(3) - LordChronos, Seacore, wombat99

wombat99

(0) -

Arinna

(0) -

kalbim

(3) - Hyperion, Arinna, SoraAdvent

Hyperion

(0) -

LordChronos

(1) - ChaosOmega

ChaosOmega

(0) -

Seacore

(0) -

Not Voting

(2) - Axxle, kalbim

With

9

alive, it takes

5

to lynch.

Two players

are the current wagon leader(s), at

L-2

Deadline is in (expired on 2012-06-23 07:00:00)

[Seacore]

kalbim is in my "willing to lynch today" list. So we'll give Chaos some time to catch up and then I'll be putting kalbim at L-1

[SoraAdvent]

Who voted for Seacore?

[Seacore]

It's almost certainly a small mistake, since someone just invited me.

[wombat99]

kalbim is in my "willing to lynch today" list. So we'll give Chaos some time to catch up and then I'll be putting kalbim at L-1

You feel strongly enough that kalbim is scum to put him at L-1 and not Axxle?

Do we have enough info on SoraAdvent and ChaosOmega to move to L-1?

[SoraAdvent]

Oh well. That means I need to post more. Anyway, I've been thinking about the rest of the players, and I have enough thoughts to pen them down. LordChronos is definitely pro-town. From the way his posts work, he seems to be concerned about each person, and doesn't hesitate to call a person scum. However, this level of certainty either means that he is excellent at spotting tells, or scum. I'm still thinking that he's the former. Wombat99 hasn't said much, and is mostly adding onto the other arguments brought up. But she's asked a few questions to generate discussion. I can't decide whether she's scum or not. I think I've covered everything so far.

[Hyperion]

LordChronos

- The only thing he's really been involved in is that misunderstanding fiasco. This is my strongest scum read (although still weak) for refusing to accept being wrong and painting me and Seacore as the bad guys.

I agree with Chronos that not accepting being wrong, especially in a misunderstanding-fed argument about the RVS, is a very good scumtell, but I might be missing a point; can you please explain why you think it is?

I actually disagree with this, I believe that the part about him refusing to admit he is wrong is more of a town tell. Scum want to blend in, so if he were scum, he would have conceded. However, continuing to refuse to consider himself wrong draws attention to him, which I don't think scum would do.

[LordChronos]

LordChronos

- The only thing he's really been involved in is that misunderstanding fiasco. This is my strongest scum read (although still weak) for refusing to accept being wrong and painting me and Seacore as the bad guys.

I agree with Chronos that not accepting being wrong, especially in a misunderstanding-fed argument about the RVS, is a very good scumtell, but I might be missing a point; can you please explain why you think it is?

I actually disagree with this, I believe that the part about him refusing to admit he is wrong is more of a town tell. Scum want to blend in, so if he were scum, he would have conceded. However, continuing to refuse to consider himself wrong draws attention to him, which I don't think scum would do.

I think Arinna just forgot to type "not". The rest of the sentence agrees with your/my opinion on the matter.

[Axxle]

In a rush but I'll address Arinna's question:

I think that it's possible he didn't want to back down since he knows he at least has wombat's support and maybe others too and wanted to create disinformation and make me and/or Seacore primary targets. I would not be surprised by a LC/wombat scumteam. That said, Kalbim has a much stronger scumread at the moment.

[Hyperion]

OK so Axxle seems to be grasping at straws now, and that last post wasn't very good at all. I'd be willing to put him at L-1 when I get home from my graduation tonight if no one has any objections, then we can give him some time for a claim (if any) and end day one.

[Arinna]

Replacements are absolutely a null tell. Case in point: my last newbie game I replaced into a slot which had already seen one replacement. That slot was jailkeeper.

Axxle had said that VTs were the least to switch out, which would exclude PRs as well. (Possibly due to the pressure in both cases? In RQS answers people sometimes write that being a PR is too stressful...) However, I'm not sure how valid or useful employing meta statistics can be. (On the other hand, it does appear as though our game has suffered an unusual number of replacement events..x.x Cursed player slots?)

Counterclaiming absolutely can be beneficial for town. A 1-1 trade with scum is a good thing for us. Whether or not to counterclaim of course depends on your role and the situation of the game. Day 1 is a worse time to counterclaim as town (or scum, as Seacore said). If you are perceived as scummy and thus unlikely to be believed and the other guy is not it might be better to bide your time and try to get a confirmable result (more applicable to non-Newbie games).

Now that I've thought it over, I think you're right. Having one scum flip would be

a lot

more helpful. Thank you. ^^

I actually disagree with this, I believe that the part about him refusing to admit he is wrong is more of a town tell. Scum want to blend in, so if he were scum, he would have conceded. However, continuing to refuse to consider himself wrong draws attention to him, which I don't think scum would do.

I think Arinna just forgot to type "not". The rest of the sentence agrees with your/my opinion on the matter.

Yes, I did forget to type "not" there. I apologise for the confusion.

--

In a rush but I'll address Arinna's question:

I think that it's possible he didn't want to back down since he knows he at least has wombat's support and maybe others too and wanted to create disinformation and make me and/or Seacore primary targets. I would not be surprised by a LC/wombat scumteam. That said, Kalbim has a much stronger scumread at the moment.

But the argument wasn't even about something important to the game, so why would his behaviour regarding an argument about theory, and unwillingness to back down from an argument unrelated to the actual game going on at that moment be a sign of anything besides his personality? Most of his arguments against others are reasonable. Can you point out where he wants to create disinformation (misinformation?) ?

OK so Axxle seems to be grasping at straws now, and that last post wasn't very good at all. I'd be willing to put him at L-1 when I get home from my graduation tonight if no one has any objections, then we can give him some time for a claim (if any) and end day one.

With his reply, Axxle seems very scummy to me (and will continue to be so until his explanation for this line of discussion seems more reasonable and well-founded); I think it would be a better course of action to wait a bit and get to know the new players better, observe their interactions with the rest of the players, and get a broader view of things. Are we truly ready for a claim at this point?

By the way, congratulations, Hyperion.

[Axxle]

Hopefully the straws I'm grasping at have scum written on it. (I'm actually not familiar with the term)

[Hyperion]

@Arinna: Thank You! I actually managed to graduate in the top 20 of the class.
@Axxle: It means you are just blindly picking at any possibilty

[Hyperion]

I'm gonna go out to celebrate, then I will put Axxle at L1, that wa, everyone has time to voice their opinios/comments etc.

[ChaosOmega]

Hey guys. Reading now, will post thoughts in a while.

[SoraAdvent]

Arinna, I agree with you on the opinion that we should wait. I think that we should observe ChaosOmega, as he hasn't posted anything yet. Let's wait.

[Hyperion]

I'm back. I missed Arinna's post saying we should wait, and I am willing to give it a day or so then if thats what everyone wants.

[ChaosOmega]

Not a huge fan of the kalbim wagon. It's not the worst lynch, since that player slot has 3 posts all game (all from kalbim), and the post with his reads is odd. Just have a gut town read on him for now.

Scum reads are Axxle and SoraAdvent. Axxle just seems intent on looking good as opposed to actually finding scum. It was brought up how he attacked Seacore after Seacore said it made wombat99 look town to him. Seacore barely responded to what Axxle was saying against him, and he goes completely 180 to apologizing for being too pushy and having a town read on him later. As for SoraAdvent, crabbyman66 (who Sora replaced) had the weird "I have no reads on anything" post, which strikes me in the same vein as not wanting to offend anyone and coast along. And then Sora sneaks the third vote onto the kalbim wagon, with essentially an OMGUS vote.

vote: Axxle

Axxle is at L-1. Wait for him to post his reads/a claim/anything before someone hammers.

With his reply, Axxle seems very scummy to me (and will continue to be so until his explanation for this line of discussion seems more reasonable and well-founded); I think it would be a better course of action to wait a bit and get to know the new players better, observe their interactions with the rest of the players, and get a broader view of things. Are we truly ready for a claim at this point?

But wouldn't a claim give us more information to do that?

[Axxle]

Well, I should claim I guess. I am

Vanilla Town

. I'm sorry for looking scummy, just trying to play.

[SoraAdvent]

Chaos, Kalbim made a lot of mistakes in his post. I may not have jumped on the wagon first, but I personally think that he's scummy. Accusing Arinne of being Scumbuddies with Axxle, using crabbyman's reputation to pin me down, as well as being unsure of being certain things makes me believe he was scum. That's my reasons for why I voted for him.