Open 402 -- Hard Boiled (Game Over!)

[TeChNoWC]

I understand your reasoning that scum will have a lot of NK's to push through, but they will have a LOT more if Hider keeps confirming towns.

If BK dies behind scum we essentially lose a lynch. Right now we have odd numbers, and at 11 alive have up to five lynches to get it right. If he dies, we advance to 8 alive, and only three lynches. BK dying behind scum nets us scum (as long as tracker doesnt get NKed, another worry) but costs us a lynch. I dont think trading a lynch for scum caught here is the right move, since it would mean we have three lynches to hit the last two scum if we mislynch today (three to hit one if we lynch right) which is why I think BK should only hide if we lynch scum.

I think Rasp should claim at this stage after that whole nearly claim scenario. If he is town and gets NKd tonight for it, we could lose his investigations. And if he is scum making shit up, he will get CCd.

Rasp-Psych with a guilty should claim. Otherwise its inconclusive results since there is a decent chance for a false positive. If they are a tracker, we know their result (BK->Venmar), if psych im assuming a negative result.

Ok well, it depends on today's lynch. Still, if BK is hiding behind towny reads it is likely to
a) confirm a town
b) kill a well-playing scum, which is almost as good as killing two likely-to-get-lynched-scum.

Yeah on second thought Rasp should only claim if he got a guilty result as tracker/psych.

You didn't address my point that no one really had a case on Burke. I had my reasons for lynching him and I gave them. I was pretty transparent the whole time up until his lynch about my views on him.

[LlamaFluff]

You also forget the REALLY bad "BK hides behind player scum NKs" option, just like hits scum and tracker dies option... two dead no scum caught.

Look at it numerically - 10 alive at night (assume 7:3). Scum know hider, 6 left. So each player has a 1/6 chance of dying. This means that there is between 16-20% chance of scum and hider targeting same player, and 16% chance of scum hitting tracker. That means in about 30% of cases (double target + tracker death) there is no useful result. When you add in the 50% hider dies chance tonight... 15% chance we lose a mislynch for nothing. Or something like that, just trying to mental math this and there are too many fractions.

Basically I just dont like those odds that we give up a mislynch. I would rather just keep two confirmed town. While we have five lynches max, scum only have four NKs. We are forcing two right there with BK and Venmar. Two more with other PRs. They are sufficiently tied up and im not risking freeing them a bit for another clear who could very well be a PR (I think about 35% chance a PR is targeted by N2).

I would not hide if we hit town if I was BK. He needs to publicize his opinion though by the time we are going to end the day. First game I ever ran had hider do this (without saying they were going to) and it really messed with scum, and made me realize the strength of not using actions all the time.

Also yeah, no one really made a huge case on BwB... need to think about this some.

unvote

[TeChNoWC]

Yeah, that would fuck town actually. Though I think scum is likely to play it safe and kill Venmar tonight (particularly with no doc or whatever).

Although some of your maths is incorrect. BK has less than 50% chance of hitting scum (3/8 (minus him and Venmar)). Not sure why BK has a '50% chance of dying'.

But yeah, it does seem risky. It could have one of many results though. I would just leave it with let BK decide.

If we correctly lynch today, chances become 25% of him hitting scum, so its more likely he'll confirm town. There is still that horrible chance that BK will hide behind the NK target yeah.

[TeChNoWC]

What I was also going to say was if BK says 'ok, I'm not hiding tonight' he will almost certainly be the NK for tonight. Wondering if he says 'not telling' and just keeps it to himself if that will make scum uncertain whether to NK him or not, and I am wondering if this is a beneficial approach.

[Venmar]

Yeah, that would fuck town actually. Though I think scum is likely to play it safe and kill Venmar tonight (particularly with no doc or whatever).

Although some of your maths is incorrect. BK has less than 50% chance of hitting scum (3/8 (minus him and Venmar)). Not sure why BK has a '50% chance of dying'.

But yeah, it does seem risky. It could have one of many results though. I would just leave it with let BK decide.

If we correctly lynch today, chances become 25% of him hitting scum, so its more likely he'll confirm town. There is still that horrible chance that BK will hide behind the NK target yeah.

Why would i die? I did not claim yet..

[TeChNoWC]

Because you are conftown and unlynchable. Conftown are always priority for NK's.

[BK201]

last 2 finals tomorrow, don't rush it and I'll read all of this then.

[raspberrylicious]

I think Rasp should claim at this stage after that whole nearly claim scenario.

Nearly claim scenario? Lol, that was a joke.

[Chimera]

Votecount 2.5

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Venmar (1) -- raspberrylicious
TeCHNoWC (1) -- Nachomamma8
raspberrylicious (2) -- Thomith, TeCHNoWC
Thomith (2) -- DCLVXI, Jackal711
andrew94 (1) -- Venmar

Not Voting -- andrew94, BK201, Kassadin, LlamaFluff

Deadline in (expired on 2012-06-23 22:10:00).

Kassadin and DCLXVI are/will be V/LA.

Prodding Jackal711

With finals and such for a lot of you I'll consider deadline extension if needed...

[Thomith]

rasp, can you actually answer my questions and not keep ignoring them? also you have posted after venmar has been cleared and are still voting them, why?

[Jackal711]

Prod acknowledged. Still trying to find time for that reread. RL has been a bitch lately.

[LlamaFluff]

Yeah, that would fuck town actually. Though I think scum is likely to play it safe and kill Venmar tonight (particularly with no doc or whatever).

Although some of your maths is incorrect. BK has less than 50% chance of hitting scum (3/8 (minus him and Venmar)). Not sure why BK has a '50% chance of dying'.

I dont think they are likely to kill Venmar since there is one PR who has softclaimed so hard I would almost consider it a scumtell if they DONT die. So 10 alive - Vemnar - BK = 8, three are scum, and one of last five die. 4/8 death chance if scum dont kill Venmar.

We got our clear, and with odd numbers I would be happy with BK being done hiding.

Vote Jackal

For the time being.

[andrew94]

I dont get it. There was always the risk that BK would die night 1, same odd numbers etc, The only difference between tonight and last night is that Bk has less chance to die.


hypo psch/det time?

[TeChNoWC]

I dont get it. There was always the risk that BK would die night 1, same odd numbers etc, The only difference between tonight and last night is that Bk has less chance to die.


hypo psch/det time?

But now we have one more confirmed town, so the risk is less necessary. Plus the risk is slightly greater this time around, and so a risk assessment would suggest that Llama is right; it's probably best that way. Still, I would leave it up to BK to decide, just to shake things up a little for scum.

@Llama: In terms of Rasp's softclaim, it's WIFOM at this stage if he isn't scum and scum decide to leave him alive because now it would make him look suspicious. I don't think that should be a scumtell. Also, tell me what you think of Jackal's 447. No one else has given an opinion on it.

@Rasp: Why did you joke? What was the purpose of the joke? Were you referencing the earlier jokes etc about VT claims or something?

I'm slightly worried at this stage about DCL 'buddying' me. Just the way he pinned andrew for things I did, and yet decided to overlook me. I'm not sure if it's simply he got confused or what, but I just don't feel his reads on andrew were genuine; they feel contrived.

Can someone please explain this hypo claim scenario thing again? Basically we all pretend claim and give our investigations as though we were the psych/tracker or something?

[DCLXVI]

@tecno I went through your ISo and did not see you push the venmar wagon day 1. Is this correct or did I miss something?

[TeChNoWC]

What I am not understanding is your read in the first place. How is a wagon push particularly scummy? What if andrew was confident in his reads? What exactly about it looked scummy?

I pushed on Venmar at the start of D2 pretty hard, harder than andrew I would say. I might not have been as certain as andrew that Venmar was scum (andrew seemed to be more convinced), but I certainly gave it to Venmar and pushed for responses.

So, what I am wondering exactly, between my push and andrew's push, what makes andrew scummy and me town? You said you didn't like the wagon on me, yet you seem to be condemning andrew for similar reasons, and admonishing me and not analysing my posts. I would consider it may just be bias (you thought I was town so was less inclined to analyse my posts), but both mine and andrew's push on Venmar was pretty blatant.

Why does it matter whether the push was D1 or D2? What difference does it make?

[Nachomamma8]

I answered your question fully.

No. I asked you why you thought Llama would bus his partner only to save him later.

@nachonull isn't a matter of content. Low content ppl get called lurkers. Calling u and llama null pretty much means that you have both done things that r towny and have both done things that are scummy.

What are the scum things that I've done? What are the town things?

I think Rasp should claim at this stage after that whole nearly claim scenario. If he is town and gets NKd tonight for it, we could lose his investigations. And if he is scum making shit up, he will get CCd.

Wait, what? His information is useless unless he has a guilty. In addition to that, the difference between detective and psychologist is a pretty big difference to how the scum play, and him claiming which one he is would help them a lot with how to play.

@Rasp: Why did you joke? What was the purpose of the joke? Were you referencing the earlier jokes etc about VT claims or something?

Stop this. Now.

[TeChNoWC]

@Nacho:

1. Because Thomith was about to get lynched so it went from 'bus' to 'fuck, my partner is about to die. I'm confident I can save him without looking suspicious'. We are past this though now.

2. Yeah, I kind of realise this now. We are also past this now.

3. I don't see how this question is dangerous at all. I don't see the point of the joke so I am inclined not to believe him; it seems like a cover. Telling me why he joked gives away nothing if he really is town.

I get the feeling you are nitpicking at little things I say just to keep a (crap)case going on me. Do you actually think I am scum? Or are you just trying to smear whatever I say? Do you actually have a substantial reason for voting me or are you happy with another mislynch today?

[LlamaFluff]

I dont get it. There was always the risk that BK would die night 1, same odd numbers etc, The only difference between tonight and last night is that Bk has less chance to die.

More chance. By a whole lot. Not worth losing a lynch when there is a noticeable chance of not even getting a guilty out of it.

hypo psch/det time?

No. It never is. They just claim a guilty and thats about it.

[DCLXVI]

@techno

The timing is very significant.

Here are the two facts: Venmar is town. Venmar was a major wagon day 1.

My assumption is that a major day one wagon will usually have 1-2 scum on it.

Given how Andrew pushed the Venmar wagon day 1 I think he is possibly one of the scum on it.


I don't think you going after Venmar day two is scummy since I doubt another scum would join in on a wagon scum were most likely already on.

About your wagon. Jackal sheeped on without a reason and nacho's case was weak I think he unvoted you later. That is why I disliked the wagon on you.

[Venmar]

Guys. My vote is still on Andrew.
You all need to jump on.

[Jackal711]

Sure.
VOTE: Andrew
Even if he winds up being town I'm comfortable with his lynch.

[LlamaFluff]

Guys. My vote is still on Andrew.
You all need to jump on.

I still have a town read on him although I would absolutely love to see him dead here.

If you have a guilty on him, claiming it is best. If you dont, I think he is town.

[TeChNoWC]

Sure.
VOTE: Andrew
Even if he winds up being town I'm comfortable with his lynch.

This is stupid and not getting us anywhere. You had Andrew as a strong townread D1 and now you have flopped to 'possible scum, meh if he is town'. Umm, that could like, lose town the game since we have already been through one mislynch.

So, is andrew scum to you or is he not?

Unvote
Vote: Jackal

Your 447 you defended pretty quickly and nervously and cried strong townread over knowing he was town. And now you want him lynched. Wth? Your ACTUAL read on andrew please? And why the change of heart?

[BK201]

Tracker

is tracking me again. Hiding is worth it.

Not going to mention my reads, should be obvious why.