Newbie 1252: The Other Game Town Wins!

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Post Post #500 (ISO) » Fri Jul 13, 2012 9:44 am

Post by Fujiko »

In post 499, 194 wrote:2 V/LA out of 7? D:


Enh. I still hope to be around some - I'm going V/LA because I don't yet have a very good feel for what the standards should be for that. It'll mean I can check the site ~1 time a day, instead of being on line all day.
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Post Post #501 (ISO) » Fri Jul 13, 2012 2:21 pm

Post by Majiffy »

In post 497, Robocopter87 wrote:As solid as a solid rock.

As solid as my c-


Nope, not going to say it.
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Post Post #502 (ISO) » Fri Jul 13, 2012 2:24 pm

Post by Robocopter87 »

In post 501, Majiffy wrote:
In post 497, Robocopter87 wrote:As solid as a solid rock.

As solid as my c-


Nope, not going to say it.


Yeah what you and your chinchilla does is none of my business.

Let us look at something more serious.

Do you think that replacements should get a clean slate? (Go in depth, discussion needs sparking)
Although the border between madness and genius is very narrow.


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Post Post #503 (ISO) » Fri Jul 13, 2012 2:24 pm

Post by Robocopter87 »

do*
Although the border between madness and genius is very narrow.


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Post Post #504 (ISO) » Fri Jul 13, 2012 2:26 pm

Post by Majiffy »

No I don't give replacements a clean slate. However, if the replacement's attitude and posting manner seems to come from a town's point of view, I think they should be given a grace period of further analysis.
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Post Post #505 (ISO) » Fri Jul 13, 2012 2:31 pm

Post by RachMarie »

Ok I am done with the testing now in about a week they will send me results by mail and I have a follow up with the doc on Aug 3rd.

So back to the games.


Welcome Zor good to see you again :)

Looks like it is back to going through ISOs more carefully since my top 2 scumspects were a dude who flipped town, and Hoss/ now Zor who is an Un CCed Doc... though the quickhammer STILL bothers me, but since Hoss replaced out there is no way to find out WHY he quickhammered like that :?


@ Majiffy and Robo

Could you two stop focusing so much on each other and focus a tad more on the rest of the players? I feel a bit like sending you both to your rooms without supper here.
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Post Post #506 (ISO) » Fri Jul 13, 2012 2:37 pm

Post by Majiffy »

In post 505, RachMarie wrote:Could you two stop focusing so much on each other and focus a tad more on the rest of the players? I feel a bit like sending you both to your rooms without supper here.

194, nhammen, Fujiko, RachMarie, Troll

Who would you like me to focus on out of this list? I have a town read on 2, 2 don't post much, and one just replaced in with one post.
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Post Post #507 (ISO) » Fri Jul 13, 2012 5:03 pm

Post by Fujiko »

In post 502, Robocopter87 wrote:Do you think that replacements should get a clean slate? (Go in depth, discussion needs sparking)


I don't understand why they would, because the first person's representation of the role will always be there. It's a second (or more...) person's take on the same role. I would think it would actually be a lot more information. Can't read person 1? Maybe 2 will be easier...
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Post Post #508 (ISO) » Fri Jul 13, 2012 5:04 pm

Post by Majiffy »

On the converse, can't read person 2, reference player 1.
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Post Post #509 (ISO) » Fri Jul 13, 2012 10:00 pm

Post by Nobody Special »


Day 2, Vote Count #7194 (1) - Zorblag
Fujiko (0) -
nhammen (0) -
Zorblag (0) -
Rachmarie (0) -
Robocopter87 (0) -
Majiffy (2) [L-2] - nhammen, Fujiko

Not Voting: RachMarie, Robocopter87, Majiffy, 194

With 7 Alive It Takes 4 To Lynch
RachMarie is V/LA Till 7/14; Fujiko is V/LA through Sunday July 22
Deadline is set for July 27th. 5:44 PM EST (expired on 2012-07-27 17:44:00)
Let me know If I made an error
....what?



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Post Post #510 (ISO) » Sat Jul 14, 2012 4:34 am

Post by Fujiko »

In post 508, Majiffy wrote:On the converse, can't read person 2, reference player 1.


Exactly.
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Post Post #511 (ISO) » Sat Jul 14, 2012 2:47 pm

Post by Zorblag »

So I've read through Rach Marie's iso and compared it to the iso that I had in the other game I've played with her. This one is better than I thought when I first read through it (she is actually saying a little more about people than I thought) but it still doesn't look like the sort of clear pro-town play that I saw in Newbie Game 1222. There's perhaps more Thor is Thor (though that matches the Elmo is Elmo) and bringing up the Robocopter87-Majjify dust-up than there is other comments on what makes players look like scum or town to her. It feels like more of statements of what's pretty obvious/sticking with stances than trying to figure things out. Is there any reason that others haven't been putting more pressure on her other than that she hasn't been around much?

Looking over nhammen's posts in iso I see that I missed more content from him at the start of the game because I jumped in around page 10. His early game feels pretty good to me even if there's a bit more commenting on what's being said then there is drawing conclusions (though there's reason to think that the conclusions were being drawn and simply not stated explicitly given posts later which pretty clearly have reads on most of the players in the game.) I'm less worried about nhammen being scum laregly lying low than I was yesterday.

Fujiko's early game is really classic for someone trying to get used to play here and what you've got to do to participate. It's a bit cautious but I don't think that's an alignment tell for a new player as much as a personality tell. Later on I see a couple things that make me think she's town (the timing of a question or two, the overall attitude in terms of information she's interested in, etc.) It's possible that she's just a strong scum player from the the go but right now she's reading much more like new town to me.

I need to take a closer look at Majiffy and Robocopter87 (and in particular Maffiy I think) but right now that's daunting so instead I'm going to go with a case on 194 instead.

Here's what I've got from day one:

We've got a fairly unwaivering town read on Robocopter87 from his first post in the game. It is possible that 194 is picking up on town vibes and running with it the whole time (perhaps even with some confirmation bias in there) but scum know alignments and it's easier for them to keep consistent opinions. In this case it would be a mild case of buddying.

Actually, that combined with the idea that the main reason that he'd buddy robocopter87 is if they were partners bit from Post 285 is one of the things that makes me nervous. 194 claims to prefer playing scum because he's "had great games playing under that alignment." (Post 22.) I leery of anyone with experience playing scum in multiple games (even offsite) trying to make that argument. I can't imagine a setting in which the only players scum buddy up with are team-mates.

We have reasons along the way that robocopter87 is town which is nice in and of itself, but there really aren't any reasons outside lurking that 194 seems to be worried about people being scum. Lurking is something we need to pressure people to avoid, but it's also a really safe arguement to make. You're not going to get into a fight with someone and draw attention to yourself by accusing them of lurking. Used as part of an overall attempt to scum hunt and you've got pro-town activity. When it's the only sort of case that's really being made against people it seems much more like scum trying to look active without taking any stances that'll come back to hurt them later.

The early vote for RXK actually would have been a nice place to bring up some reasons along those lines; as it was it comes accross as following popular sentiment rather than an attempt to find scum.

There's probably as much responding to Thor665 as anything else content-wise in 194's play. The responses are fine as a defense (town have times when they need to defend themselves as just like scum do if they're under pressure,) but there's a failure to express any new views about suspicions along the way. There's even a reference to nhammen's defending 194, but all we get out of it is a null read (Post 373 at the end of it. There should be more reads than robocopter87 is town by this stage in the game.

I actually have a bit of an issue to talk about with day two play in general and 194 is a central part of it, but I'll leave that there for now. If anyone would like to comment on it they're welcome to. I just don't see the aspects of 194's play that makes me think he'd be likely to be town that I do from Fujiko or nhammen. At this point I like my vote where it is.

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Post Post #512 (ISO) » Sat Jul 14, 2012 3:15 pm

Post by Zorblag »

So here's my issue with Day 2 so far. I know that I'm the doctor and that TheHossaim claimed it yesterday. I'm still alive today for a reason. To oversimplify slightly, either the scum didn't believe the claim (that's pretty unlikely,) they had other things to worry about than a doctor (in which case it'd be Thor665 as he was the kill,) or they figured that TheHossaim was in a weak enough position at the start of Day 2 that they'd have a fair chance of letting the town kill him without needing to use a night kill of their own. It could be a possibility of those but they're the main things that are likely to have been going through scum heads.

No matter which of the three (or which combination of parts of the three) was the case, its almost inconceivable to me that there wouldn't be one member of the scum team that was pushing the lynch on TheHossaim right from the start of the day. In fact, if both members of the scum team were around and active I'd highly suspect that one of them said they were going to jump right on the wagon from the start and push and that the other was going to hang around and take a read of the situation, maybe planning to defend TheHossaim later and try to get credit for trying to prevent a lynch of the doctor. The only way that there wouldn't be at least one scum voting for TheHossaim early day two was if both scum were inactive or the one who said they were going to get on the wagon was inactive towards the start of the day and it wouldn't look good for them to jump on the wagon when they had a chance.

The players that have voted for TheHossaim today have been robocopter87, 194 and Majjify. Rach Marie, it's worth noting, did post early in Day 2 to day that she would be V/LA. She would have known that was coming up I suspect and thus if she's scum she wouldn't have been the partner who was supposed to be on the TheHossaim wagon early. Fujiko and nhammen were both on and cast votes other places early; they'd almost certainly given the game thought during the first night so they wouldn't have been the scum that was supposed to get an early vote on TheHossaim. And that's everyone left in the game other than TheHossaim.

At least one (and probably exactly one) of 194, Majiffy and robocopter87 is likely to be scum. We probably also have one scum in the Fujiko, nhammen, Rach Marie group.

In the first group robocopter bailed on the vote sooner than I think he should have if he were scum. Town need to change their reads as they actually change and should be more likely to be flexible; it looks to me like that's what robocopter87 is doing. Majjify is making a case based on night kill stuff that I don't think quite makes sense but I don't think that's an alignment tell. He is pushing much harder than 194 though for what that's worth. Personally, as scum I wouldn't push a case in this situation as I'd know that I'd be proven wrong shortly, but I play a pretty low-key scum game anyhow as long as I'm able to. It's entirely possible that it's confirmation bias at this point but of the three (even ignoring everything from day one) I find the most likely scum play to be coming from 194; he's still not giving strong arguments but is early on what should be an easy, popular wagon for scum, he shows up right when the day starts to cast that vote and then there's no real push that comes with it so he's not going to be blamed when TheHossaim fips doctor at the end of the day.

The second group is trickier. Rach Marie's play could easily be coming from town and I know she's busy; like I said, if she's scum she's the one that would hang around and not make an early "decision" on the TheHossaim wagon. nahmmen and Fujiko both come out swinging against players that don't surprise me based on day one play. If either is scum I think that there's some chance that there's distancing being done here with a partner, but I don't know how necessary that is as I don't think that there was huge pressure on either 194 or Majjify with Thor665 dead.

Oh, and one last thing to throw out; if there was any player most likely to benefit from Thor665 being out of the game my guess is that it's 194. There was some attention thrown at him from elsewhere, but Thor665 was probably the most likely one to bring on pressure later and make a strong case. Night kill speculation on it's own isn't a great idea, but in this case I'm going to claim that it fits so nicely with everything else that I'm seeing that I think there's a very decent chance that Thor665 was killed at least in part to take pressure off 194.

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Post Post #513 (ISO) » Sat Jul 14, 2012 4:31 pm

Post by Fujiko »

In post 512, Zorblag wrote:they figured that TheHossaim was in a weak enough position at the start of Day 2 that they'd have a fair chance of letting the town kill him without needing to use a night kill of their own


This was actually what I figured - why kill the guy who was at L-1 for nearly a week, and quickhammered, which would put an even bigger target on him? At the rate we were going, we were going to take care of it ourselves...
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Post Post #514 (ISO) » Sat Jul 14, 2012 6:10 pm

Post by nhammen »

In post 506, Majiffy wrote:194, nhammen, Fujiko, RachMarie, Troll

Who would you like me to focus on out of this list? I have a town read on 2, 2 don't post much, and one just replaced in with one post.

So, my first reaction to this post is to instinctively seperate the five names into the listed groups. Earlier you stated your town reads as Robo, 194, and myself. But after this, you gave me scumpoints. So, did you forget I had scumpoints, or something else?


Aaaaand Troll completely blows apart my town read on 194... Now I need to rethink.
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Post Post #515 (ISO) » Sun Jul 15, 2012 1:37 am

Post by Zorblag »

OK, for what it's worth TheHossaim protected Fujiko last night. Welcome back Elmo ThE AzN! Thanks for the backukp modding Nobody Special!

Past that it's 5:30 in the morning here and I'm going back to bed for a bit. I'll have some questions to ask later this morning.

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Post Post #516 (ISO) » Sun Jul 15, 2012 1:41 am

Post by Fujiko »

In post 515, Zorblag wrote:OK, for what it's worth TheHossaim protected Fujiko last night.


Sorry, but I literally laughed out loud when I heard this.
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Post Post #517 (ISO) » Sun Jul 15, 2012 1:44 am

Post by Fujiko »

Erm. To clarify that - I would not have been my choice for protection. (After reading that, it looks like I said I don't believe Zorblag - not true.)
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Post Post #518 (ISO) » Sun Jul 15, 2012 4:39 am

Post by Robocopter87 »

In post 512, Zorblag wrote:
Oh, and one last thing to throw out; if there was any player most likely to benefit from Thor665 being out of the game my guess is that it's 194. There was some attention thrown at him from elsewhere, but Thor665 was probably the most likely one to bring on pressure later and make a strong case. Night kill speculation on it's own isn't a great idea, but in this case I'm going to claim that it fits so nicely with everything else that I'm seeing that I think there's a very decent chance that Thor665 was killed at least in part to take pressure off 194.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh


This really hit home to me.

Troll's case really is an excellent case.

And though I usually wish to have my own reasons for voting people, i believe it important to get this thing rolling while I gather up my own reasons.

VOTE: 194
Although the border between madness and genius is very narrow.


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Post Post #519 (ISO) » Sun Jul 15, 2012 7:01 am

Post by Zorblag »

OK, I've now taken the time to look more carefully at robocopter87 and Majjify in isolation. I'm pretty convinced that robocopter87 should be town now. In fact, I'm more willing to believe that 194 might have thought so right from the start even if they're town (though the points about the buddying comment and the lack of cases on potential scum outside of lurking still stand.) Robocopter87 is making things happen and interested in the entire game throughout even as he's getting called anti-town and drawing flak. That's play that you should see from town who are less concerned about living than information; he made himself way too big a target to make me think scum play.

Majiffy, on the other hand, comes out less town-feeling than I was expecting him to. There are lots of posts and he definitely interacts with lots of people, but his overall tone feels much more as though it's interaction for the sake of interaction in many cases (rather than interaction in pursuit of scum.) The adherence to a town 194 is troubling in the same sort of way that adherence on 194 to a town robocopter87 used to be to me, but in this case it's based on pretty scant information based on what Majiffy has to work with and I don't see any efforts to reassess despite statements that reads that early in the game will solidify with pages and flips (Post 299.)

At this point I'm happier with the 194 lynch, but I'm much less sold on a Majjify town than I was after my skim of pages 11-20ish.

@nhammen, could you lay out your Majjify case for me in nice simple points so that I can see why you were thinking that's where the vote should be. I've largely got it but I want to see what your biggest points are right now.

@Majjify, is it still mostly gut for 194? Can you point to stretches of pro-town play or at least provide pro-town motivation for the play that we've got to counter what I'm seeing as scum motivation? Also, what's your take on my assumptions about day two play by a scum team in which they're leaving a claimed doctor who was at L-1 the previous day alive? Am I painting a reasonable picture there?

@Fujiko, if RachMarie continued to post as she has (reasons for not providing content or statements that she has to go look at things but not look at them) when do you think she should be lynched? Today? LyLo? Never because there will be others who you have a better feel for as scummy? It seems like you've got her listed as about null right now which is fine as there's not much to go on, but how long are you willing to let someone stay at that read in a game like this?

@194, what's the biggest thing that I'm not seeing when I make my case against you? Why should I think that you're town at this point and who's the better choice to focus on? Even better, ignore my case on you and make a stunning case on someone else in the game that convinces me that you're scum hunting and getting it right! Or if it's on me convince everyone else so that I can see that you're trying to find scum and how you're going about it.

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Post Post #520 (ISO) » Sun Jul 15, 2012 8:04 am

Post by nhammen »

In post 515, Zorblag wrote:OK, for what it's worth TheHossaim protected Fujiko last night. Welcome back Elmo ThE AzN! Thanks for the backukp modding Nobody Special!

Well, I just ISOed Hoss, and it turns out that Fuji was the only player that Hoss mentioned a town read on (other than going back and forth on robo repeatedly)... In fact, I didn't see him comment on many players in this game at all. So that makes sense as his target.

I also searched for Elmo's posts in other threads (to see if he got back at the time you claimed he did), and found that he has been posting elsewhere on site the entire time he was V/LA... So the fact that he allegedly informed you of the target at the time you claimed does not confirm you as town. Which is good I guess, because it would feel a little cheap if out of game info was used to confirm you as town.

In post 519, Zorblag wrote:@nhammen, could you lay out your Majjify case for me in nice simple points so that I can see why you were thinking that's where the vote should be. I've largely got it but I want to see what your biggest points are right now.

There are a couple of reasons. As I told Majiffy himself, a large reason was that I
have
had a town read on everyone but Majiffy and Rach. An additional, but unspoken (untyped?) point is that Thor's scumlist just before he died was Majiffy, Rach, and Robo, and so there was a bit of night kill analysis there as well. But that doesn't explain why I chose Majiffy over Rach. The reason for this is that earlier in the game, Majiffy was very strongly defending Robo (see #109, #169, and his subsequent posts). I do not, and did not, feel that a player should defend someone as a townread quite that strongly. It could be honest, but it could be scum buddying up to town, or even scum defending a partner (I find the last unlikely though). His more quiet townread on 194 was quite different, and actually more how I would expect town to behave. In fact, now that I think about it, this can't be a personality issue, because if he defended all of his townreads that strongly, he would have done the same for 194! Also, he kept saying Robo was town when he was voting him and not-so-subtly piling evidence on him... and still calling him town (see #208, #214, and his subsequent posts).
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Post Post #521 (ISO) » Sun Jul 15, 2012 8:08 am

Post by nhammen »

I should state that I had already had a negative view of Majiffy from the start of the game, when he made no effort whatsoever to move the game along. Robo and Thor were the only players that were even trying to generate discussion before I replaced in, and this colored my view of Majiffy in particular, because he should be experienced enough to know better.

Also, on another note: when I brought up my case against Majiffy, I intentionally mentioned how in my view, the other option was Rach, and he never asked why I don't go after Rach, or anything of the sort, even though he claimed that she was one of the options he would consider if someone gave a case. Now, if he is town, this gives no information whatsoever. But if he were to flip scum, then people should keep this in mind.
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Post Post #522 (ISO) » Sun Jul 15, 2012 8:10 am

Post by nhammen »

"nice simple points"

I think I might have failed at that... were my points in #520 simple enough?
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Post Post #523 (ISO) » Sun Jul 15, 2012 8:29 am

Post by Zorblag »

Strong town points for nhammen's start to Post 520. I can't quote the PM that I sent him, but when I got news from Nobody Special that he didn't know who I had protected night one I told him that it was probably for the best and that I could try to make that help my doctor claim look stronger because of the way that I had to delay things. The timing that actually happened here was that I didn't get a message from Elmo TeH AzN yesterday despite seeing him on so I sent him a PM asking for my night actions yesterday evening. He replied over the night and I posted first thing in the morning when I got it in a way that was intended to try to make me look as townie as possible based on the timing. Town who's worried about a claim are much more likely to look into timings for that sort of thing than scum who already know that I'm a doctor (well, or at least town.) This is a strong reason to think that nhammen is town who cares about who's scum.

@nhammen, that's simple enough. It's also largely what I thought. I guess it's worth pointing out that Majjify said the following to Thor665 who was on 194's case at the time:
Majiffy in [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=4148924#p4148924]Post 280[/url] wrote:Essentially gut, but with a blend of his line of thinking. I'm not seeing scum there, I'm sorry. And as long as both of us are alive, I will fight you tooth and nail over 194's lynch.
That's pretty strong defense of 194 (or at least a promise of it should the issue come up more), perhaps along the lines of the defense of robocopter87 that you were seeing? Does that change anything for you?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh
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Post Post #524 (ISO) » Sun Jul 15, 2012 9:17 am

Post by nhammen »

That is a pretty strong defense and I didn't remember that. So, this could all be a personality tell. Now I'm gonna meta him a bit.

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