Open 427: PYP X/Y (Day 7)

[BK201]

Vote: Arugula

Question: Do we claim our roles or no?

No, not today. Probably not until Day 3.

Weird how so many people picked 3 and 4. It makes me think there's a half-decent chance scum doubled up.

VOTE: RachMarie

Commencing re-read, on this post I just want to say that out of all those PYP games you linked, scum never doubled up.

[BK201]

Well you didn't link, but you(Hoopla) showed me the numbers.

[BK201]

Actually in 1 out of those 5 games scum did double up. Interestingly enough you were on that scum-team Hoopla

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Arugula

I hate to abandon a wagon I started, but so be it.

If people don't mind, I'll be withholding my thoughts on the wagon on me for now. I'd like to see where it goes first.

[Hoopla]

a question 4 jal: wat would u say if i started talkin lyk dis?

[Hoopla]

On Number Theory

A short essay dedicated to Arugula

To put you, the reader, in the right frame of mind to digest this post, I'll ask you to give a quick listen to an excerpt from a Radiolab episode on randomness. If you skip to the 9:55 mark, there is a great piece on simulated randomness - and the way the human mind perceives randomness as opposed to what real randomness actually looks like. In this instance, the interviewers are asked to flip a coin 100 times in a row and record the results, and other people in the room are asked to fabricate 100 fake coinflips. The professor comes in and immediately can distinguish which list were the real coin flips. The main give away, is that when faking randomness, people tend to shy away from large streaks because it doesn't "look" random, when in actuality, there is a good chance you'll record at least one significant streak through sheer randomness.

The same principle applies to when scum select numbers this game. What the human mind instinctively believes to look like random is actually only a small subset of millions of possible combinations. Like people are less likely to fabricate long streaks of one result in the previous test, I believe scum are less likely to select numbers that look similarly obvious. Stuff like 6/7/8 or 4/6/8 look really non-random from the perspective of the layman - there is an obvious pattern, so people will naturally shy away from those combinations. A defined pattern is the very opposite of random.

In the list of PYP drafts, you can clearly see this effect in practice, with scum spreading numbers in a way that appears to have no real pattern to it. The only time it didn't happen was when I deliberately chose an obscure set of numbers for our scumteam in Team Mafia PYP.

The benefits of number analysis are strictly rooted in a scumhunting technique implementing process of elimination - looking at one person who chose 8 is irrelevant - it tells us nothing of their alignment in and of itself. But it does tell us they're unlikely to be scum with someone else who picked 8. It also tells us that they're unlikely to be a in team like 6/7/8 or 4/6/8.

Number analysis isn't something you use on it's own - it merely compliments other aspects of elimination-based hunting, as it can wipe out several more combinations, which makes it especially deadly deep in games, or when you're only working with a handful of suspects. The reason I'm using it now is because the game has started in an unusual way, in the sense, that a lot of people have themselves look obv-town, which makes PoE attractive even though it's only D1.

PS: I'm strangely confident (for D1) the scumteam is you/Jal/pieceofpecanpie

Well, you are wrong. I don't know about Jal and pieceofpecanpie, but I know you are wrong about me. And it is silly to try to make connections without a flip.

I am. I've just realised this team isn't right (you and Jal aren't scum together). But I am inching closer towards it.

[Arugula]

A beautiful OMGUS vote followed by a beautiful essay. I almost shed a tear.

I understand your whole number theory debate now, but it all goes out the window if you are scum, which I am confident in. And you said it was unlikely for numbers like 4/6/8 and 6/7/8 to be a scumteam. Wouldn't those examples be points in my favor?

[Jal]

And if you're not scum, there's no reason Hoopla isn't.

This doesn't make sense. Also, where was all of this stuff before the started votes piling on her?

[Jal]

EBWOP: "Where was all of this stuff before the votes started piling on her?"

@Hoopla

a question 4 jal: wat would u say if i started talkin lyk dis?

Father?

@Arugula: Why do I have this utterly sinking feeling I have made a huge error?

[Arugula]

I don't know. Cobbler's vote made me a little uneasy, but Hoopla's vote on me made me feel a little better.

[Jal]

I wouldn't call it OMGUS though.

[Jal]

@Contrapposto: Do you mostly read the game from your phone?

[Contrapposto]

@Contrapposto: Do you mostly read the game from your phone?

Yes. I have a window constantly open on my iPhone.
I can keep up with things pretty well that way and participate from it when I want to address something right away.
However, as mentioned earlier, multi quoting (maily responding to walls) can be a pain.

[Contrapposto]

@Jal: what do you think about RachMarie?

[Contrapposto]

What does ANYONE think about RachMarie, ftm?

@Hoopla:

I understand that you have played in every PYP game, and I understand your fascination with numbers.
It's quite apparent.
We all play to our strengths. My strength is in analyzing the interactions between players and their arguments while yours appears to be the numbers in construction and the role they potentially play in this game.

I'm not suggesting the numbers aren't important. Quite the contrary as they will become more important as the game progresses.
What I am saying is they are not the sole factor and that this is still "mafia" first and foremost.
With this in mind I fear you may be missing the forest for the trees.
I have noticed that you do not appear to be basing your suspicions and votes as much on the player interations, rather upon the numbers.

Do you think the numbers might be giving you a blind spot?
This, in and of itself, is not a scum tell however I am still pretty floored that you seem so quick to assume RachMarie to be town.

What made you say that RachMarie seemed town to you when she had only 2 posts at the time and had not even gotten back to you with her "ISO research" which you specifically requested of her?

[Jal]

Her only posts in the game have been on the scummy-side. Her replies indicate that she's read through the game, but she has barely commented on what has been going on nor has she scum hunted.

However, I've seen her play this way two times. Once when she was scum and another time when she was a PR. Given her high position in the queue, I just can't be surprised if she is playing this way because of her role, even though

everyone

knows there's a very high chance she has a PR.

Right now, all I can say is that she's not very high up on my scum-list.

[RachMarie]

you will get your ISO reads don't worry I am working on them now.

Also I know Jal and Arugula (and probably Hoopla) are aware of how life has been for me lately. Still working on catching up.

[RachMarie]

oh and BK as well most of them have been in games with me recently.

[Elmo TeH AzN]

Looking at the numbers game were playing here and I'm not looking at setup. Couldn't you have everyone get a PR if they picked right

There are only 8 PRs available to take.

So we could end up with 6 VT/Maf Goons

Thanks for that

Aside: Elmo is giving me the scumvibes. I'll try to explain if anyone's curious.

Surprise Surprise I give up with this already.

[BK201]

Contrapposto is obvtown (I know he's not a person other than Contrapposto, but my read has graduated, so I thought I'd mention it), OmNom and Venmar are probtown also. Jal is scummy, and a scum flip there would definitely implicate Arugula. pecanpie is also fairly scummy. andrew has an alien thought process that I am having trouble parsing as any alignment. I have no strong opinions about any other players as yet.

UNVOTE: Ser Arthur Dayne
VOTE: Jal

This is oddly exactly what I was thinking, except I don't see a jal/arugula association tell.

[BK201]

Can someone please explain the case on Jal because I'm not seeing it?

Well here is an association tell, but it was after your(iamusername) post.

[BK201]

Tell me why I shouldn't get more votes on you for being worthless

Because the aim of the game is lynching scum, not worthless players.

Are you willing to let him into a Lylo then and your telling me by him parroting you and just going along with it doing nothing doesn't ring a couple bells?

The goal is to not reach Lylo Om is fairly easy to read though.

[RachMarie]

I am breaking this up to make it less of a wall.


Preliminary reads Part One

Andrew's ISO

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go


Seems to be getting in a match with Pecan but really have no clue what he thinks of anyone else Fairly null ATM needs to post more. (I know its a major pot and kettle atm but I will be posting more).

Null

Aru's ISO

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

Tries to get discussion going and get us out of RVS. Gets in the argument about number analysis. Post 234 does not feel like something scum would say. It indicates a motive to narrow down who the scum really are which is a town motive.

Leaning Town

BK's ISO

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

A little more meat here though also joining in the number analysis argument. However does push on others as well. For now leaning Town

Leaning Town

Cobbler's ISO

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go


Him and Contra seem to be getting into it a fair bit. Could be a Town v Town thing though over different playstyles. Will watch this carefully though. I will look at Elmo carefully but I think he maybe off on his reasoning there Elmo is Elmo, but I usually can peg when he is Town. Seems to be focusing more now on other people and not just tunneling on Contra. For now he can go in the Town pile.

Leaning Town

Contra's ISO

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

WOW this dude really gets into analysis. Good pushes on people including me and I admit he is right to push me since usually I am the one pushing on people who are not posting much. I can see why he and Cobbler got into it and might both be town but different playstyles. Though if there is scum tween them I would have to say more likely Cobbler. Contra is a very strong town read for me all the way through. I would be highly surprised if he flips scum.

Strong Town.

Elmo's ISO

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

Elmo why do you do this I definitely can see why people think he might be scum, but he is just being Elmo. When he plays crazy like this he is town. He is more methodical and pays more attention to things when he is scum.

Town

Hoopla's ISO

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go


Seems to be making a lot of the right noises, but I am not completely convinced. She has the experience to WIFOM out of things well. I have a few questions for her to help me determine which side she is on.


1. In Post 194 you say you suspect I am town even though I have barely posted and not yet posted content til now. Why? That makes me suspicious.

2. Post 89 bothers me. You agree with IUN about Contra and then vote for Cobbler? Sounds like you are keeping your options open there?

3. Why so much focus and distration on the number analysis. I know for example it is off in this game because I just picked my favorite number. I did not sit and think about what numbers others would pick. It worked out just fine for me. So I can see a case for using the number analysis as a form of IIoA and make it seem like you are actively scum hunting without scum hunting?


Based on the answers to these questions, I will better determine whether you are scum or town.

Null for now till questions are answered.

Part 2 coming up

[BK201]

Aside: Elmo is giving me the scumvibes. I'll try to explain if anyone's curious.

I'm curious.

[Elmo TeH AzN]

VOTE: RachMarie