A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Eddard Stark]

Ser Barristan Selmy, or Barristan 'The Bold', received his knighthood at the age of sixteen from King Aegon V after unhorsing Prince Duncan and Lord Commander Duncan the Tall of the Kingsguard at a tourney in King's Landing

Day 1, Votecount 21

MagnaofIllusion (1) - Shadow1psc
Starbuck (1) - redFF
SnowStorm (5) - Plessiezarus, Regfan, Tyene Sand, Feysal, Jal

Minimum (7) - MagnaofIllusion, Salamence20, Hasdgfas, Lyanna Stark, StefanB, Benmage, greenknight

Benmage (1) - SnowStorm
Salamence20 (3) - Amrun, Minimum, bvoigt
Feysal (1) - Starbuck
Shinori (5) - Pandora, BBmolla, Staeg, Plum's Yo Mamma, Dolorous Edd
Shadow1psc (1) - Mastermind of Sin

Not Voting (3):

Mockingjaye, kortul, Shinori

With 28 alive it takes 15 to lynch.

• Deadline
  : 3rd September at 11:59pm Ireland time. (GMT+1)
  
• Countdown to deadline
  : (expired on 2012-09-03 18:59:59)
  
• MOI is V/la. Hyperion is V/la.

CHOOSE USAIN BOLT

Tyene Sand (1) - Feysal
Dolorous Edd (2) - hasdgfas, Jal
Feysal (4) - Dolorous Edd, Salamence20, Bvoigt, greenknight
Hasdgfas (1) - Shadow1psc
Minimum (1) - Regfan
Starbuck (2) - Starbuck, Staeg
redFF (2) - Minimum, Pandora

Shadow1psc (6) - BBmolla, StefanB, MagnaofIllusion, Plum's Yo Mamma, Benmage, Mastermind of Sin

Mastermind of Sin (1) - Tyene Sand

Not Choosing (8):

Lyanna Stark, Mockingjaye, kortul, redFF, Amrun, Plessiezarus, SnowStorm, Shinori

With 28 alive it takes 15 to 'Choose'. Once a choose has 15 votes it will be locked in but not end day.i

Prodding cow, and repaired the errors in the previous votecounts. Probably.

[Plessiezarus]

Pless is indeed sniping from the sidelines. I don't know if this is a typical feature of his play, but for example, calling Arthur out on hypocrisy as he does in Post 355 is pretty pointless and reads like an unnecessary attempt to rile him up. Hypocrisy is not a scumtell.

Hypocrisy isn't automatically a scumtell, no. But when somebody is pressed to give reasons for a claimed town-read or scum-read, and can only offer arguments that are incredibly inconsistent with their prior stances or their own behavior, then that

is

suspicious. I also have no idea why you'd classify my post 355 as "sniping from the sidelines" - Edd asked me a question, I replied and asked some questions of my own. If I was commenting on people who weren't talking to me, sure, you could call that "sniping from the sidelines" if you wanted. But saying slightly pointed things to people I was already involved in a dialogue with? . Hardly.

By the way, Edd, you're still free to answer those questions whenever you like.

You can explain the inconsistency behind your suddenly acquired doubts about Regfan that I point out in Post 517, while you're at it.

Something else I'd like from Pless--follow-up on the reason you asked Regfan about his townread on me.

I asked Regfan about his town-read on you because Zar and I don't see it (we thought and think you look pretty bad). Since Regfan generally has good town-reads and we agreed with most of his others so far this game, we wanted to see if he could convince us we were wrong. He didn't.

At this point

no one

speculated at anything relating to multiball, so coming off like that and saying it without saying something like "assuming" or something, yes, it's suspicious.

This is still a ridiculous reason to suspect anybody. The post you quote is not at all suspicious.

~ Pless

[Regfan]

Got caught up with a lot today, going to get to this game tomorrow and make sure I get a re-read of Minimum/Snow done then.

[Dolorous Edd]

And the languagebarrier is only my fault, not yours. If it is to difficult I will replace out. (Yes that was about her scumread on me)

No, please don't. Your English is fine.

I actually don't actually feel the language difference at all

Cerywn's Bible anyone?

1. So, you've decided it's multi-ball? and 2.) A little too early to be pulling out the activity chart

Umm, people already speculated about it. I haven't

decided

it yet. But if scum know it's multiball, then players like Benmage, Regfan, Pandora, and Tierce look good for starting the game strongly.

Checking in.
I read MoI as town and agree with his early posts regarding Minimum. Same with Lyanna and the latest page of Tierce/MoS. I think the attacks on Starbuck for thinking that Choosing town is correct policy are weak, and there's likely opportunistic scum in there. I'll catch up on everything in the middle later.

Vote: Minimum

Choose: Feysal

Uh, who are you?

By the way, Edd, you're still free to answer those questions whenever you like.

You can explain the inconsistency behind your suddenly acquired doubts about Regfan that I point out in Post 517, while you're at it.

I feel like I’m being interrogated here. What were your questions again, inquisitor?

[Dolorous Edd]

At this point

no one

speculated at anything relating to multiball, so coming off like that and saying it without saying something like "assuming" or something, yes, it's suspicious.

This is still a ridiculous reason to suspect anybody. The post you quote is not at all suspicious.

You missed what I was aiming at, didn't you?

(Though if you didn't, why is it "not at all suspicious"?)

[Plessiezarus]

Arthur, stop fluffing the thread, would you? This is not The Thread That Never Ends.

1) Pless asked you about your

Sudden transformation into CES

silent vote on Hyperion and the reasons behind it.

2-3) Back in 355 we had some questions regarding your assessment on Benmage:

Oh, yeah, this. Edd, why did you ask Benmage to explain some of his reads like this and then completely fail to follow up on his answer?

I wasn't asking to test him.

I was asking because he is very likely town, and I was trying to see why he was thinking what he was thinking, on certain people that I wouldn't necessarily have placed in the same spot at that moment.

1) Where did I say you were testing him? If you wanted to see what he was thinking, why did you not share your thoughts and explain why/if you disagreed?

2) Why is Benmage "very likely town"? Statements that are missing the why are so tedious to deal with, after all...

~ Pless

and, 4) While you're at it, would you please address the incongruence pointed in 517?

~Zar.

[Staeg]

Checking in.

I read MoI as town and agree with his early posts regarding Minimum. Same with Lyanna and the latest page of Tierce/MoS. I think the attacks on Starbuck for thinking that Choosing town is correct policy are weak, and there's likely opportunistic scum in there. I'll catch up on everything in the middle later.

Vote: Minimum

Choose: Feysal

That's fine and all, but how about some actual reasoning for the votes?

[Minimum]

Checking in.

I read MoI as town and agree with his early posts regarding Minimum. Same with Lyanna and the latest page of Tierce/MoS. I think the attacks on Starbuck for thinking that Choosing town is correct policy are weak, and there's likely opportunistic scum in there. I'll catch up on everything in the middle later.

Vote: Minimum

Choose: Feysal

I take it your scum game has got much worse since AFFC.

Aside from my first kneejerk "this vote and justification thereof is terrible at this point of the game; also, OMGUS" reaction, I'm curious to know what exactly you agree with Lyanna on re: MoS/Tierce. Are they town/scum/____?

When did you start reading the game, by the way?

[Plums Yo Mamma]

Checking in.

I read MoI as town and agree with his early posts regarding Minimum. Same with Lyanna and the latest page of Tierce/MoS. I think the attacks on Starbuck for thinking that Choosing town is correct policy are weak, and there's likely opportunistic scum in there. I'll catch up on everything in the middle later.

Vote: Minimum

Choose: Feysal

this is going to be very, very fun.
can't wait at all, nope.

SALAMENCE:
You trust Feysal's vig choices, but why is he scum?

[hasdgfas]

I feel like I’m being interrogated here. What were your questions again, inquisitor?

Scum scum scum. Scummy scum scum.

[Shinori]

Just subbed in, anyone wanna give me a general overview of what's happened? Other than that I'll probably re-read and get fully caught up tomorrow.

##Unvote:

##Unchoose:

Yeah, make this easy and tell us who your partners are

Silly. You know who they are.

So why the minimum wagon? I'll ISO later today but I'm about to sleep cause I haven't in like 28 hours or something silly. Cause work.

[bvoigt]

@Mod:

Shinori replaced Hyperion, so isn't he the one with 5 votes on him?

Though I see why you thought I was fencesitting on your post, that wasn't my intention. I think it was a scummy post.

Good. Please elaborate on what was scummy specifically in terms of scum motivation.

I think the motivation was to "manufacture," if you will, a towntell. Again, there's no direct scum motivation to selfchoose. But the way that you pointed out that scum wouldn't want to do it as soon as someone questioned you makes me think that it was a move deliberately calculated to get towncred.

Cerywn's Bible anyone?

Hmm?

No. If he's town, he's being lazy, yes. But I think he's scum who is pushing shitty cases. Lazy != shitty cases, that's what I meant. "What you were doing" refers to "just pushing shitty cases", not to "being lazy".

MoS is a good player when he deigns to pay attention to the game. I'm pretty sure he wouldn't throw a vig shot away on a bad target just because he's lazy when

alive on D1

. His laziness has several reasons, and while I disagree with them, I understand where it comes from and it's characteristic of his D1 play.

The

suspicion

on me is scummy, though, because it's a sign that he went from laziness to making a veritably crappy case on someone with faulty facts.

But wouldn't town and scum be equally motivated to double-check their cases? If MoS is scum, he knows that a factually inaccurate case won't get any credibility.

[Pandora]

After reading replacement posts carefully I see I'm actually voting for Shinori, not greenknight. I do find it suspicious that greenknight, probably not realizing the wagon isn't on him, immediately hops onto what looks like his counterwagon and Mr Popular Choose. To Shinori I suggest he look for himself to see why people are voting Minimum so he can make an informed decision of his own. There are five people waiting to hear what you have to say, boy.

redFF has been back for two days and posted all of one question to Starbuck that sounds like a theory question. How is the answer indicative of town or scum, especially considering she wanted to choose herself?

The choose wagon on the other Shadow1 has struck me this entire time of sounding like a policy lynch on someone who is effectively trolling the thread. I've honestly felt the same way as him more then a few times, with all the loud noises from 'pro players' it's hard to imagine what you say early matters. I'd rather put suspicion on someone who is quietly doing nothing then someone who is telling you where he's coming from.

Sala's post have been bugging me

more then usual

because he's gone on a defensive streak. You have four named scum suspects but you've spent more time arguing (and accusing?) MoI then you've spent on the four of them. Why do you think Shadow1 is scum? I don't know what #433 is refering to, but it gives the impression he's a scum suspect because he's watching you.

BV, what do you want from me? I alreaddy gave out reads and the like.

Besides this sounding petulant, the answer is probably actual reasoning behind the reads, which you lack, combined with pursuing them in a way that's convincing that you're looking for scum.

Ok, I see where you are going with this, but I must ask, why must I be obvscum? What if I am just town trying to play with the big boys

and failing either way he plays

.

Also less defending yourself in a way where you sounds like Oliver Twist begging for more cred from Headmaster MoI.

- Shadoweh

[bvoigt]

So, here's why I think Sala is scum:

His first three posts are all useless. He said he was catching up in another thread, and I'm sure that's true. But why bother making those posts at all? They add nothing new to the game. It looks like scum trying to appear helpful and avoid accusations of lurking.

Despite its length, his catchup post really doesn't have a lot of scumhunting IMO. Again, it seems like he's trying to appear helpful, rather than actively looking for the scum as a townie would.

Furthermore, I just noticed that he voted Minimum in his very first post, and has kept that vote there for the entire game, with no explanation AFAIK. @Sala: Why do you think Minimum is scum?

His other 3 scum reads, according to #433, are Shadow, SnowStorm, and Hyperion. So all 4 of his scum reads are popular wagons, and 3 of the 4 are arguably easy mislynches. Overall, it looks like these reads are mainly "following the crowd" without adding any of his own reasoning.

[greenknight]

In response to questions on this page

- Bandwagoning based on the 5 or so pages I read this morning when I got my replacement PM, in order to move the game forward, is pro-town
- my votes are actually explained in what I posted, i'm voting Minimum because I agreed with MoI (particularly #125) and Feysal because he opened up by attacking Starbuck just for proposing a dubious strategy for the use of Choose. IMO that isn't a scum tell but it's the sort of thing that scum love to jump on.
- I agreed with Lyanna's meta read on MoS in #597, having played in the same game she refers to as source for the read (Good vs Evil). Therefore leaning town on all 3 involved slots (lyanna, tyene, MoS)
- Love you too Mina, unfortunately I'm not a mafia mason tracker vig this game
- Pandora I don't really get your point. It actually does happen to be true that I didn't realise there was a wagon on my slot, but why would that be important?

[SnowStorm]

Plessiezarus, besides me, who are your scum-reads?

Dolorous Edd, I will ask you again. What is your read on Minimum?

Unvote: Benmage

[Pandora]

GK: I'm saying you would have thought you had a reason to want the 'pro-town' bandwagoning to have a bigger target then you. Since MoI's 125 is also about dubious choosing choices (and admittedly includes the line that threw me off about Minimum in the first place), both your votes seem to be about the same thing. What do you think about the amount of people that jumped on Feysal for his 'scumslip'?

[SnowStorm]

Scum:
Minimum
Shadow
Snowstorm
Hyperion

Why do you have me and Hyperion in your scum tiers? This post is the first and only time you mention our names.

[Eddard Stark]

Votecount fixed

Prodding Starbuck

[greenknight]

GK: I'm saying you would have thought you had a reason to want the 'pro-town' bandwagoning to have a bigger target then you. Since MoI's 125 is also about dubious choosing choices (and admittedly includes the line that threw me off about Minimum in the first place), both your votes seem to be about the same thing. What do you think about the amount of people that jumped on Feysal for his 'scumslip'?

If you mean the multiball "slip", I think that was a bad reason to be voting anyone. I can see why people might think it was a scumtell because a scum in a team of 4 would automatically know it was multiball. However, when I saw that there were 28 players in the game, I immediately assumed it would be multiball just to keep the overall duration of the game down.

The Choice strategy issue is different, there's no potential hidden knowledge involved there. I agree that the correct town play is to use it as a 2nd lynch, but being wrong on a strategy issue is not scummy - it's just being wrong - and I expect better from town Feysal.

In fact, isoing Feysal, he leaves the Starbuck vote there for a while before switching to Snow with another dubious tell - IMO town having trouble settling on scum reads day 1 is reasonably common, and I don't see how it is valid to use the example of a scum in another game who had trouble finding reads for the entire game vs half of day 1. Again this sort of going after easy targets is not what I expect from town Feysal, in the two games I've played with Feysal as town he went aggressively after whom he perceived to be the biggest threat (MoI), with better reasoning.

[Plums Yo Mamma]

Just subbed in, anyone wanna give me a general overview of what's happened? Other than that I'll probably re-read and get fully caught up tomorrow.

##Unvote:

##Unchoose:

Yeah, make this easy and tell us who your partners are

Silly. You know who they are.

So why the minimum wagon? I'll ISO later today but I'm about to sleep cause I haven't in like 28 hours or something silly. Cause work.

So this is what they call it when you are caught up fully? Hmm.

[Plessiezarus]

Plessiezarus, besides me, who are your scum-reads?

You're still our top suspect. We're also feeling pretty suspicious of Tyene, redff and, after Post 535 and Post 538, bvoigt. (Those three are pretty much in order of how much we suspect them.) Mina's more recent posts have not done much, if anything, to allay our earlier doubts about Minimum, who we'd rank just below those four. To a lesser extent, we have bad feelings about greenknight (formerly

sword

), Feysal and Salamance.

* We're currently working on a post about Tyene

blame Zar if it's not finished soon

.

* redFF spent the start of day 1 pushing what felt like a slightly dodgy case against Starbuck. After being V/LA for most of the week, he returns to the game to ... continue this argument with Starbuck? Ugh. Would like some signs of effort being made to scum-hunt.

* bvoigt's attack on Staeg for demanding Starbuck name-claim seems contrived. Either it's "anti-town" or it's "not dangerous" - it can't be both. (Also, "needing to reread" Edd seems like an excuse not to offer an opinion on a vocal player as much as anything else: seems implausible that one could 'not notice' somebody with so many posts.)

* Didn't like the fact that sword spent so much of his catch-up post (Post 342) rehashing the discussion about the correct way to use the choose mechanic. Seemed like a very safe topic to stay on. Greenknight's entry post is also rather odd. Jumping on two somewhat-popular wagons without catching up on the thread, at this point in the day? Can't see the town-motivation for that.

* While we don't find Feysal's implicit assumption of multiball suspicious, we get the sense that he's avoiding pushing any new ideas or suspects. He spends more time discussing past games or general theory than seems helpful.

* We already said that Salamence's vote in Post 56 looks bad. Don't like many of his later posts either (especially Post 393, which seems weirdly defensive). Also rather like MoI's point against him in Post 525.

On the other hand, we're pretty sure that Tammy, Pandora, Regfan, Starbuck and BBmolla are town (names in decreasing order of confidence). Fairly sure about all five, but especially of the first three. Think enough has been said about why already.

Much weaker town-reads on Amrun (really on

pappum

), Benmage, Jal, MagnaOfIllusion, Mockingjaye, Plum+Nacho, Shinori (really on

Hyperion

), Staeg and Stefan. Note sure what we think about Shadow1psc (we can't come to a consensus at the moment, but we're debating it) or Edd (who veers between sounding incredibly townish and sounding ... well, not). And of course we're still waiting for Edd to answer our questions...

Unvote: Benmage

Why did you decide that now was a good time to unvote? Weren't you earlier saying there was no need to do this yet?

~ Pless (but this is much more of a proper hydra post than usual)

[Dolorous Edd]

Cerywn's Bible anyone?

Hmm?

I think the great Whiskeyjack (he's a westerosi player) put it best (which is what the term Cerwyn's bible more or less means):

"In a game with 2 evil factions, an evil player who knows he can be killed by the other team will tend to avoid a leadership position, and avoid showing himself to be among the best players, because he doesn't want to be killed. He'll be more under the radar - he doesn't have to be the quietest...he just needs to be less aggressive and less of a threat than some of the other players."

So evil players in multiball tend to be in the middleish suspicious/lurkish. They don't want to be too suspicious because they can easily get lynched, yet at the same time they don't want to look too townish, because they can get killed by other scum. Thus,this theory would eliminate (or at least lessen) people like Benmage, Tyene, Regfan, and Pandora from the scum pool. And at the same time people like Jal, Sala, Plum, Mockingjay, Hyper would lean more towards scum who are trying to blend in based on their early start actions.

Pedt: Ninjaed by plesszar, so haven't read that, and I'll get to answering some of the questions in a bit.

[Plessiezarus]

"In a game with 2 evil factions, an evil player who knows he can be killed by the other team will tend to avoid a leadership position, and avoid showing himself to be among the best players, because he doesn't want to be killed. He'll be more under the radar - he doesn't have to be the quietest...he just needs to be less aggressive and less of a threat than some of the other players."

I'm pretty sure this doesn't work on MS (where, for one thing, multiball games are a lot more common; any easy way of spotting scum like this would have inevitably ceased to work after a while, if it ever did).

Actually, I'm pretty sure it's rubbish anyway, it's just that in Westeros games I don't want to say so .

Anyway, this is just yet more fluff. Your time would be better spent

answering people's questions

. Please do.

~ Pless (unlike the last post, this is just me)

[Lyanna Stark]

Cerywn's Bible anyone?

Hmm?

"In a game with 2 evil factions, an evil player who knows he can be killed by the other team will tend to avoid a leadership position, and avoid showing himself to be among the best players, because he doesn't want to be killed. He'll be more under the radar - he doesn't have to be the quietest...he just needs to be less aggressive and less of a threat than some of the other players."

So evil players in multiball tend to be in the middleish suspicious/lurkish. They don't want to be too suspicious because they can easily get lynched, yet at the same time they don't want to look too townish, because they can get killed by other scum. Thus,this theory would eliminate (or at least lessen) people like Benmage, Tyene, Regfan, and Pandora from the scum pool. And at the same time people like Jal, Sala, Plum, Mockingjay, Hyper would lean more towards scum who are trying to blend in based on their early start actions.

Pless already responded to this, but it's not just at game's start, it's based on activity level and contribution over the course of the days (and can't even really be broached until near deadline of the first day) AND most importantly it applies when everyone is aware that it's multiball.