Micro 11: Mostly Normal Micro (Day 4)

[Bub Bidderskins]

Vote: ree

He pushed the sala wagon without actually voting on it. He can now go back and legitimately say that he was not on the sala mislynch wagon, but during the day he said this:

Scummy in the fact that he's not really contributing much to the game. For someone who is ALWAYS online, he is not posting nearly enough. His reads are few and far between due to the fact that he has mainly been tunnelling 2 or 3 players.

And now he's trying to put the focus on the wagons, when he was on neither.

In other news:

I will eat my hat if Johhog is scum
I'm also leaning town on Bork.
Lucky hasn't been posting much, but considering his recent post that is understandable and alignment-null

[Johhog]

Alright. Here I go. I'll try this method.

Bork is town. Zab is town. Godot is town.

Leaves me with Lucky/Ree/Bub. That's a whole lot more manageable. I'll be back.

[Mr_Ree]

Only so many people can fit on a wagon. If you look back, I wasn't around for hammer time (which happened early morning). Meanwhile, I was on late the night before. I know for a fact that I'm not scum so why does it hurt anyone to focus on the wagons? Considering how many people were saying town vs. Town, Sal's Lynch went ridiculously fast. What we should do today is focus on that wagon and figure out who was in control at the time. I find it hard to believe that it was purely town on him.

Gotta admit I may have been blinded to the possibility of Zab-scum. His first post of the day gave me all sorts of bad vibes. I'm definitely ready to hear what Lucky has been seeing up until now.

[Luckyjt]

I got time right now. Case on Zab coming.

[Luckyjt]

So far as Ive said through out all the first day and my opinion hasnt changed much with the flips.

Early game he had so much filler and the only post which had some material in it where answering general questions posted on the thread. After being called for having many filler posts, his post became much more filled with content which is a plus for him. Then he posts this.

"Ree, I took my vote off because it wasn't doing any good leaving it attached. The pressure on Bub had died down and I was debating whether or not I felt comfortable moving my vote to you. I'm not concerned with what you think is scummy. I'm concerned with lynching scum and winning this game."

Alright my biased understanding of this is that (Bub wagon died so I can get my vote away from it now. I see a Ree wagon going so I will add pressure to this slot now and possibly get a lynch + town credit).... I said biased because I tunnel. Do you guys see what I see with this post? I find it hard not to see this as scummy.

And although he sees Ree as scummy he votes Bub again in his next post because Ree (who Zabriel says is scummy) made a good point. Oh he remembers to pedit that Ree isnt as scummy anymore or else him listening to Ree's point about Bub wouldnt make sense.

Drops Bub and Ree reads and goes for other wagons. Sees chance for my wagon. Joins Mehdi wagon. Goes for Sal wagon.

So if Zabriel is scum and we have two of them, then his partner would have to be Ree or Bub based on the constant flip flop between them.

And today

"I was kind of expecting scum to leave Medhi to make it through the night after I talked about Medhi's chances of making it. When I play scum I like to target off my own wagon and leave claimed but unconfirmed power roles alone for as long as I can to increase paranoia about the possibility of fakeclaiming. I thought that might happen here."

So lets take his word for it, Zabriel wouldnt kill Mehdi, it doesnt make sense./Sarcasm. Seems to be trying to get town credit or distance himself from the kill which one again I see as scummy. I have many points against him, I dont see how you guys see him as town. Can someone build a town case on him or something?

[zabriel]

Nice thoughts Lucky, but you're barking up the wrong tree.

The one thing that has me leaning scum on Ree right now is his split scum theory. It targeted Lucky pretty directly while leaving the second scum in the big Sala wagon. Scum!Ree the could push the Lucky lynch based on probability and then push a lynch on me tomorrow after he and his partner get rid of somebody else. That's assuming that Lucky is just kind of an idiot townie.

[borkjerfkin]

I am considering Ree on the Sala wagon in spirit. @Ree -- would you agree with this?

His "I know for a fact that I'm not scum so why does it hurt anyone to focus on the wagons" is a misguided sentiment and a null tell (no one else is going to take for granted that you're town but I see town go down this road often).
The assumption that scum are split on the wagon is mildly scummy at best because it seems like an easy way to set up a mislynch. It's also super WIFOMy since he (and Bub, earlier) were talking about it on D1; on the other hand, noob scum do this all the time.

I am surprised by the sudden clarity in Lucky's argument -- I can actually start to see the thought process for Lucky here. That's actually slightly scummy to me because it makes his D1 play (and especially that AtE) seem more like a facade.

Zab's #397 seems weird that he'd think that scum would've formed or changed their plans just based on townZab's remarks. On the other hand, if he's scum, he'll be definitely trying to WIFOM the nightkill speculation to his advantage so I see that post more likely to come from scum than from town.

Joh's still weak town to me. His D2 play is reasonable.

@Bub -- Your argument is a bit flawed, but I wanna hear from Ree before I say why.

[zabriel]

It wasn't so much that I thought they'd base play around it, but the fact that it was out there sort of implies that town was expecting it to happen, and I know my own style gears toward doing what is least expected, so I tend to expect the unexpected when I play town. But I'm very right-brained, so I tend to see things a little differently. It's hard to explain without sounding insane.

[Mr_Ree]

You're suspicious because I haven't defended myself? Well honestly, I am not really concerned about the wagon on me. I wasn't concerned at L-1, I'm not concerned now.

Salamance has done some shady things. I think he's a good lynch. If he flips town, then we have to reevaluate. We work from what he said and what was said about him. If he flips scum, so much the better.

If Salamance flips scum, that means we probably have only one scum left (since that seems to make the most sense for balance).

If our jailer is being honest, chances are he won't make it through the night since PRs are like tasty, tasty candy to scum.

I'd suggest that he choose his night target in thread so that we can check somebody off as conf-town if he dies tonight, or possible scum if nobody dies. If we don't lynch scum today, he shouldn't feel bound to his in-thread choice and should do what he feels most appropriate and we'll see what happens in the morning.

What happened to this Zab? It was a perfectly logical course of thought. Your very first line of the day was "Of all the possible ways the night could have turned out, that was not what I saw happening." It sounds like you were deflecting. How did you not see any possible way that a claimed townie jail keeper would not survive the night? Why would your play style as scum affect the nightkills in this game?

@ Bork, I was with it in spirit. I just wanted to hear more from certain players before it actually went down. Now that I see the flip, I'm wondering if my original thoughts on DJD may have had some merit. I'm just not hearing enough from Johhog to form a solid opinion yet.

[ProsecutorGodot]

This was basically Sala's reasoning behind what separated Lucky and Zab:

Because this game is unbelievably slow....

mainly this has been (JOH vs Sala) and (Lucky vs Zabriel) and everybody else.

Again, believing lucky because he is in the same hole I am, town players getting outsmarted by smarter players.

UNVOTE: JOHHOG
VOTE: Zabriel

A bit misguided that it was just these two bouts, but in this, Sala said himself he was "a sucker for the AtE." He saw Zab's wagon as town-guided and for that reason, he cast down his vote on Zab. I honestly think that assumed too much at the time, especially considering he was trying to shed a vote or two from his wagon to redirect the main lynch, and seemed like a move to line up a lynch. Yes, he flipped town, but we actually venture into WIFOM territory going down that path since that tells us he was doing thoughtful guesswork.

That and he isn't alive to use this nugget of insight courtesy of Bork. Lucky chose now to pull a 180 and start clarifying things. It seems artificial. Up until his wagon died, he was all but resigned to the lynch. Combine this with what he did yesterday (agreement with my reaching during the NK debate, AtE for us to pity the unskilled newb) and I'm getting the idea that Lucky's turnaround was the product of a N1 pep talk.

Lucky, I would like to know what changed your play.

[zabriel]

You're suspicious because I haven't defended myself? Well honestly, I am not really concerned about the wagon on me. I wasn't concerned at L-1, I'm not concerned now.

Salamance has done some shady things. I think he's a good lynch. If he flips town, then we have to reevaluate. We work from what he said and what was said about him. If he flips scum, so much the better.

If Salamance flips scum, that means we probably have only one scum left (since that seems to make the most sense for balance).

If our jailer is being honest, chances are he won't make it through the night since PRs are like tasty, tasty candy to scum.

I'd suggest that he choose his night target in thread so that we can check somebody off as conf-town if he dies tonight, or possible scum if nobody dies. If we don't lynch scum today, he shouldn't feel bound to his in-thread choice and should do what he feels most appropriate and we'll see what happens in the morning.

What happened to this Zab? It was a perfectly logical course of thought. Your very first line of the day was "Of all the possible ways the night could have turned out, that was not what I saw happening." It sounds like you were deflecting. How did you not see any possible way that a claimed townie jail keeper would not survive the night? Why would your play style as scum affect the nightkills in this game?

@ Bork, I was with it in spirit. I just wanted to hear more from certain players before it actually went down. Now that I see the flip, I'm wondering if my original thoughts on DJD may have had some merit. I'm just not hearing enough from Johhog to form a solid opinion yet.

Two reasons. 1st, I thought the claim was bogus. 2nd, I feel like there are more threatening players than Medhi that would have made appealing targets. It may not be the best way to play, but I try to think like scum in all of my games in hopes of narrowing down who is anti-town and what they're trying to accomplish with each individual move.

[borkjerfkin]

Ok. Bub, the reason that your theory is wrong is that it makes no sense for ScumRee to put himself off the wagon for terms of wagon analysis; as scum he's going to try to put himself into the biggest group possible to widen the number of people we'd have to potentially mislynch before we were sure he was the scum on the wagon, whereas if he tries to pawn himself off as off the wagon, it'd be just between Lucky and him.

@Godot: what are you trying to say here:

That and he isn't alive to use this nugget of insight courtesy of Bork.

That he's dead cause I hammered him? He was the better of the two wagons, and I don't have the benefit of hindsight to guide my decisions. Do you think Zab is scum and I should've hammered him instead?

[Luckyjt]

Well if you recall the end of day 1 at the time I was about to be lynched, I started to give out my reads on everyone in abc order. The lynch was reached and I never gave my thoughts on Zabriel who was my top suspect at that point and still is. So I started of today with why I thought he was scummy yesterday. Another fact wast that most of day 1 I was in 4-5 games so my focus wasnt entirely on this game. Towards the end of our day phase my focus was mostly in a large Kindgom hearts game which was at lylo so I was focusing a lot more on that game since it was 3 vs 1 in the day phase. Now I am only in two since most of those game ended which allows me to get better reads on people and not have a jumbled mash up of all my games.

[ProsecutorGodot]

@Godot: what are you trying to say here:

That and he isn't alive to use this nugget of insight courtesy of Bork.

What I'm saying is that I think he would reconsider his stance on Lucky if he was still in and that I'm not taking his townLucky read as entirely accurate just because he flipped town. Just a reminder to not take his town reads as Word of Mod.

@Lucky: I think if you're about to be lynched, you spill about everyone ASAP in a more particular order than alphabetically and before you submit yourself to a lynch. That discussion about Zabriel looks very important to your case considering you voted for him at the end of Day 1 and still believe he is scum. I think he should have been the very first person you talked about and you should have talked about him right after you realized you were at L-1.

Speaking of which, your "just lynch me" speech looked to passively self-hammer. It doesn't make sense for you to do it as town, but it makes a lot of sense for you to do it as scum because it would have denied us the information we put out there after. Compared to what you told us about Zab, yesterday's discussion of reads seemed reluctant considering the list was in pieces the way it was. It just seems all too convenient that you would miss talking about Zab, your number one scum read, until today after he was already on a mislynch. If you were bogged down with 4 or 5 games at a time, then Zab should have been one of the first reads you put out there so it was there as soon as possible. Again, this seems artificial and timed for the situation.

VOTE: Luckyjt

Just out of curiosity, if you were going in alphabetical order, why'd you not mention me?

[Luckyjt]

Well I didnt have all the time in the world to make decent reads before being lynched. I was making sure I had every detail I wanted to say and not just make little quick reads. I went through everyone's ISO's carefully if time permitted. I was going at a good rate I'd say for the amount of time I had. Technically my last read yesterday was ree's. Then they asked me to do a quick read on Sal so I did. I skipped you over you because i forgot I didnt do a read on you. When I was going to write my case for Zabriel who is last on the list Sal was hammered.

And I did it in alpha order because thats how the ISO list goes and I was going down the list.

Oh and I was so tempted to vote myself yesterday and hammer. I dont like getting lynched when Im town and usually just vote myself in anger when I am about to be lynched. Im trying to change that since people always complain at endgame about me doing so. I was still angry but I was going to let you guys hammer me this time. Check my previous games and you will see how many times I voted myself.

Now my final point if Im just going to be a lynch you guys are going to keep coming too then please lynch me today. I dont want to get lynched today. I was fine with being lynched yesterday but with two town flips already I dont think its the best choice, but if you guys will come back to lynching me tomorrow just get rid of me today. I will always be that easy lynch because of my way of handling pressure where I crumble in anger. Because I can be sure as hell I will be a target for the lynch tomorrow if I am not lynched today or killed tonight.

[Mr_Ree]

I seriously want to hear cases from Johhog. Both on his town reads and his scum reads. Through some pretty extensive iso'ing I think I have the scum team pegged. Cases coming later in the day, I just need to hear from a few people first.

@Godot, bub and bork: care to do a town to scum list for us?

[Mr_Ree]

@ Lucky. Did sals flip change any of your reads? Did it come as much surprise? Who would Zab's partner be according to your most current reads?

@ Bub both wagons should be looked at. I was more on Sal's wagon than Zab's. I was pretty sure Zab was town yesterday.

[zabriel]

Both wagons basically means the huge ass Sal wagon, and Lucky. At the end of day 1 I was getting the same vibes from Lucky as I was from a player in another game I played in recently. We lynched that guy, and it turned out he was just really bad at mafia and really good at making people want to kill him.

That being said, I just did a quick read on some of his other games and this one seems off. He's tunneling me like hell, which I tend to consider more of a town trait than anything else, but something feels off after flipping through some of his town games. Maybe it's like Godot said, artificial and timed. I'm going to call Lucky null for now. I've got too many conflicting thoughts about him, and a headache.

[borkjerfkin]

@Ree -- here's where I'm at. I actually started off with Zab below Johhog but during course of posting, flipped them, mostly due to 417.

S
Lucky -- Mostly the weak AtE end of D1 and his total 180 on D2.
^
(about even)
v
Ree -- I think my biggest problem with Ree is that he has pretty much no transparency, and his thought process doesn't mesh with mine at all. His method of scumhunting is just to demand content from people, which doesn't leave him with anything he has to defend most of the time. I will say that Bub's reason for voting Ree is bunk, like I previously mentioned. If Lucky flips town, #392 makes Ree look pretty bad.

Zab -- 397 was the first legitimately scummy thing I've seen from him. Is 417 prepping to bus?
^
close
v
Johhog -- He's been really awkward on D2, which I guess is understandable when his biggest scumread flipped town. Could be scum that doesn't know who to fake a case against...or town that doesn't know who to make a case against. Really unsure about him.

^
(fairly far away)
v

Godot -- His D2 play reads a little weird but his D1 play is why he's down here.

Bub -- Look who morphed into my best read. I really can't even say why, other than he hasn't really done a single scummy thing after that RVS issue with Lucky.
T

[borkjerfkin]

V/LA Sat to Tues for the holiday weekend.

I'll be here today and I anticipate SOME access, but just a heads up.

[Johhog]

Johhog -- He's been really awkward on D2, which I guess is understandable when his biggest scumread flipped town. Could be scum that doesn't know who to fake a case against...or town that doesn't know who to make a case against. Really unsure about him.

Yeah, this is true... not sure how I'm supposed to convince you that it's true but I'm town and I'm not really picking up any scum-vibes from anyone, which is forcing me to play this game backwards by looking at who isn't obvtown. And I haven't had that much motivation lately either. Sucks to say but well...

In the meantime I can answer some questions, if you have any. Anyone?

[Mr_Ree]

Maybe maybe not. You have three townreads and three scum leads. I want cases or at least some measure of explanation as to why they are there. You can't have 3 people sitting in your scum pile for no reason. Especially when you say you aren't picking up any scum vibes off anyone. I've been watching your play. Since your initial wall, all you've posed is these are my reads, be back soon. This isn't scumhunting and has no benefit to town.

Do Zab's posts today make you see him in a different light? Is he still your top choice for town?

[zabriel]

Not so much Bork. I just tend to think out loud, sometimes late at night and after a few drinks. But my thoughts about Lucky still stand. I've got conflcting thoughts and feelings about him, Salamance's wagon moved very quickly though, and I still think it's entirely possible that both scum are there. I'm not sold on Town!Lucky, but I'd rather look elsewhere. There's a lot of WIFOM but basically I've decided that it's more likely that both scum are on the Salamance wagon and using the numbers to hide, rather than sitting as the lone survivor of my d1 wagon.

VOTE: Ree

Basically he did sort of a weak finger on Lucky while saying we need to look at both wagons. I'm getting the feeling that he's trying to avoid looking responsible for town deaths while still pushing them. That's been said, but yeah. That's kind of what I'm thinking.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Ok. Bub, the reason that your theory is wrong is that it makes no sense for ScumRee to put himself off the wagon for terms of wagon analysis; as scum he's going to try to put himself into the biggest group possible to widen the number of people we'd have to potentially mislynch before we were sure he was the scum on the wagon, whereas if he tries to pawn himself off as off the wagon, it'd be just between Lucky and him.

@Godot: what are you trying to say here:

That and he isn't alive to use this nugget of insight courtesy of Bork.

That he's dead cause I hammered him? He was the better of the two wagons, and I don't have the benefit of hindsight to guide my decisions. Do you think Zab is scum and I should've hammered him instead?

Town------------------------------------------------------------->scum

Johhog Bork Godot Lucky Zab Ree

[Bub Bidderskins]

Screwed up my copy and pasting. This:


Town------------------------------------------------------------->scum

Johhog....Bork........................Godot....Lucky.................Zab............Ree


Was a reply to this:

@Godot, bub and bork: care to do a town to scum list for us?

I'm still working on a response to the above quote.