A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[bvoigt]

Quick question, is posting on the alts role related, cause that's going to kill me.

Hey, I'm here and will have a real post up later today.

[bvoigt]

Quick question, is posting on the alts role related, cause that's going to kill me.

What was the purpose of asking this?

P-edit: tierce, you're wrong, vigs have a much lower % of hitting scum than lynches, so yeah.

Out of curiosity, is there data on this somewhere?

I would agree that our Choose should be used as a 2nd lynch. But with that being said, I think Starbuck is town. First of all, I don't think scum would want to so vocally disagree with the opinions of most of the town. And (more importantly) #75 and the early VT claim in #76 definitely sound like a confused townie.

I don't think Feysal scumslipped. (But with that being said, the people who pointed out his high level of theory to content have a point. His vote in #47 simply seems like a disagreement in theory to me.) Salamance's wagon hop in #56 looks pretty bad. Tyene, on the other hand, seemed genuine in her suspicions.

Regfan's #99 looks townish.

@Minimum

-

Looks at you … looks at my title …. looks back at you

. Not sure what is rocket science in understanding why I Chose myself.

Now – I’d like you to detail what possible scum motivatioin I have in wanting to make sure I die Night 1. Go!

While selfchoosing is probably a towntell in most cases (like Starbuck's), the way that MoI selfchose, then pointed out that scum wouldn't do it, gives me bad vibes.

Yeah, this is a crappy post, but some content is better than none, I guess.

[bvoigt]

Time for a stream of 1-liners: I don't like Salamence's lack of content through #174. I know he said he was busy replacing into another game, but he seemed to be reading along. I think he would've had time for more than those 3 sheepy posts.

I don't understand how everyone is so sure that scum would shoot another scum. It's being said like it is fact and that it will definitely happen that way. I don't believe it will, so while my opinion on it is unpopular (look at all the people who have hopped on my bandwagon to prove that point), I don't believe that it is wrong or scummy.

This post has already been torn to shreds by others, but it serves to highlight how Starbuck does not seem to be reading the same game we are. I cannot trace her thoughts at all, and I don't understand how anyone could have a town read on her.

She has seemed confused so far, but you seem to be implying that it's a scumtell. That doesn't make sense to me.

I think Benmage is town. hasdgfas too.

Sala's catchup was pretty scummy IMO. Lots of quotes, lots of asking people to explain their votes on him, not much in the way of actual scumhunting. Also, this quote is really bad:

Meanwhile, I'll be waiting for BB's reasoning of Sal obvscum.

UNVOTE: Salamence20
VOTE: Minimum

I'm going to take this as an OMGUS vote if you can't explain it. Or maybe you can tell me why Minimum is the better lynch canidate now?

I don't agree with the reasoning behind Hyperion's vote in #298, but it reads as town.

Does MoS always play like this?

SnowStorm it must suck to come to MS and have your first role pm be scum. So, Benmage looks town to you does he? *glances up at vote count* Can you explain why you're still voting him then?

Is everyone pretty much null to you SnowStorm? Not one person you want to vote for and press

besides the one you just called town

? None?

This is a good point.

Pandora looks town in #343. Well, I'm through page 14.

[bvoigt]

I would still like starbuck to die (who STILL hasn't nameclaimed), but I'm more or less alone there.

Why do you want Starbuck to nameclaim? Until she's in danger of being lynched, it's antitown. If she was at L-1, we'd want to hear her name and flavor, but until then, all it does is give more information to the scum.

What was the purpose of asking this?

What was the purpose of asking

this?

Out of all the posts in this game

Page 1, I know, but it sounded like possible rolefishing. What were you expecting for an answer? "Yes, all the people with alts are using their actual rolenames from the game"?

I’d also consider a wagon on Bvoigt for Post 451 as it looks very much like the “Stall out commenting on anything of recent vintage to look active while not being held accountable for being up-to-speed” style posting scum love to use to active-lurk along. Nothing in that post is meaningful (he asks questions about comments on Page 1 which have long been settled, takes three positions that have been more or less long settled and convienently falls on the right side in each, and makes a throwaway fence-sit on a post of mine).

Though I see why you thought I was fencesitting on your post, that wasn't my intention. I think it was a scummy post.

I think Lyanna is town. Should probably reread Minimum and Edd. Even though they've posted a lot, I haven't really "noticed" them.

[bvoigt]

For the moment, though, she's nowhere near being chosen. I just don't see how we can use her nameclaim to help us. Stefan, I don't think it's more dangerous, but it's still additional information for the scum.

VOTE: Salamence

Choose: Feysal

Sal is my top suspect right now; I will post a case on him soon. Feysal I'm less confident about, but he's the best option out of the people who currently have Choose votes.

[bvoigt]

@Mod:

Shinori replaced Hyperion, so isn't he the one with 5 votes on him?

Though I see why you thought I was fencesitting on your post, that wasn't my intention. I think it was a scummy post.

Good. Please elaborate on what was scummy specifically in terms of scum motivation.

I think the motivation was to "manufacture," if you will, a towntell. Again, there's no direct scum motivation to selfchoose. But the way that you pointed out that scum wouldn't want to do it as soon as someone questioned you makes me think that it was a move deliberately calculated to get towncred.

Cerywn's Bible anyone?

Hmm?

No. If he's town, he's being lazy, yes. But I think he's scum who is pushing shitty cases. Lazy != shitty cases, that's what I meant. "What you were doing" refers to "just pushing shitty cases", not to "being lazy".

MoS is a good player when he deigns to pay attention to the game. I'm pretty sure he wouldn't throw a vig shot away on a bad target just because he's lazy when

alive on D1

. His laziness has several reasons, and while I disagree with them, I understand where it comes from and it's characteristic of his D1 play.

The

suspicion

on me is scummy, though, because it's a sign that he went from laziness to making a veritably crappy case on someone with faulty facts.

But wouldn't town and scum be equally motivated to double-check their cases? If MoS is scum, he knows that a factually inaccurate case won't get any credibility.

[bvoigt]

So, here's why I think Sala is scum:

His first three posts are all useless. He said he was catching up in another thread, and I'm sure that's true. But why bother making those posts at all? They add nothing new to the game. It looks like scum trying to appear helpful and avoid accusations of lurking.

Despite its length, his catchup post really doesn't have a lot of scumhunting IMO. Again, it seems like he's trying to appear helpful, rather than actively looking for the scum as a townie would.

Furthermore, I just noticed that he voted Minimum in his very first post, and has kept that vote there for the entire game, with no explanation AFAIK. @Sala: Why do you think Minimum is scum?

His other 3 scum reads, according to #433, are Shadow, SnowStorm, and Hyperion. So all 4 of his scum reads are popular wagons, and 3 of the 4 are arguably easy mislynches. Overall, it looks like these reads are mainly "following the crowd" without adding any of his own reasoning.

[bvoigt]

Furthermore, I just noticed that he voted Minimum in his very first post, and has kept that vote there for the entire game, with no explanation AFAIK. @Sala: Why do you think Minimum is scum?

His other 3 scum reads, according to #433, are Shadow, SnowStorm, and Hyperion. So all 4 of his scum reads are popular wagons, and

3 of the 4 are arguably easy mislynches

. Overall, it looks like these reads are mainly "following the crowd" without adding any of his own reasoning.

So... who's a mislynch and why?

I'm saying that those 3 (excluding Minimum) are weaker players. (Not that I'm much better.) So if I was scum and wanted to get an easy mislynch, they would be good choices.

[bvoigt]

So after ISO'ing minimum, I'll state that I think he's most likely scum or lazy ass town. His first part of the game doesn't help at all. Starbucks vote wasn't that good, neither was the snowstorm vote that was then swapped in his next post to salamence who he appears to have been on all game. After he voted on salamence his posts seem small and not too helpful and he doesn't do much till about post #323 where mina specifically posts and then again at #446 and #455 where I guess he started to feel pressured by the votes to do something. I don't like the majority of his responses to players though.

This case reads as contrived to me. Actually, I'm not quite sure why most of the people on the Minimum wagon are voting them. They're still pretty much null to me.

Plessie's case in #653 didn't really convince me that Tyene is scum, but it did convince me that Plessie is town. Dolorous Edd is probable town, too.

Oh yeah, this game.

Time for moar updated lists!!!

Spoiler: Salamence's reads.

Town:
MoI
Pandora
Tyene
Edd
Cow
Lyanna
Molla
Starbuck
Pless
Stefan
Salamence20
Regfan

Null:
Benmage
Staeg
Plum
Jal
Feysal
Pappums
SoO
MoS
Mocking
BV
RedFF
Petyr

Scum:
Minimum
Shadow
Snowstorm
Hyperion

Yeah... nothing has really changed.

Literally, nothing has changed since #433? Out of 250 posts, not a single one has seemed like any sort of alignment-tell? I don't buy that. Salamence is not making any sort of effort to scumhunt. He's not asking questions or making cases. All he's doing is sitting on the sidelines. There's no town motivation to find the scum here; the scum motivation is that he's trying to avoid notice. He said himself that "posting alot makes me scummy," so he knows that if he stays in the background, he won't attract as much suspicion.

[bvoigt]

Nope....

[bvoigt]

Snowstorm unvoting Benmage at Post 617 without actually re-voting really is dinging my scumdar. The whole point of his “my Town read on Benmage nullified my vote” stance was that Benmage wasn’t in any lynch danger and thus his vote was no danger. So he has no reason to unvote in that post given he doesn’t have someplace he wants the vote to go.

This is actually a good point. SnowStorm is definitely a better lynch than Minimum, though obviously Sala is my first choice.

I think the motivation was to "manufacture," if you will, a towntell. Again, there's no direct scum motivation to selfchoose. But the way that you pointed out that scum wouldn't want to do it as soon as someone questioned you makes me think that it was a move deliberately calculated to get towncred.

Well given that you (and several others) have had this same reaction I frankly find your “You did it to get Town-cred” when it has netted me none and I don’t really care anyway to be pretty ludicrous.

@Bvoigt

– so did you stop ‘back-mining’ the thread because I called you out on it?

The irony of you attacking Sala for “going after easy mislynches” in Post 613 is not lost on me. Sala has the biggest VI rep in the game by far.

Um, no, I simply got caught up.

The thing about Sala is that

every single one

of his scumreads is an "easy" choice. It's not a scumtell to have a case on a VI or popular wagon if you actually explain the scum motivation behind their posts...but Sala hasn't done that.

@Plum/Nacho in #746:

1. Opposing a nameclaim was far from a "useless side conversation" as you said. It would have been anti-town for Starbuck to nameclaim, so it was important to bring it up. As far as the question to BBMolla, it was dumb and didn't lead anywhere so I dropped it. Some questions always end up like that.

2. Yes, I've been lazy in regards to Minimum. I have to admit it's bad play, but...(shrug)

3. Yes, Sala is the only case I've really pushed in this game, because he's by far my strongest scumread, and MoI and Feysal haven't really done enough scummy things that I could make a full case on them. More scum reads would be nice, but I've also acquired some town reads that will hopefully help with PoE at some point.

I was unimpressed by Feysal's #796. As Tierce said, he seems to be focusing on stuff that isn't really important.

DCLXVI's #804 is townish. The townread on Shadow and scumread on Tierce read as sincere to me.

-I think MoI and shadow are also town. The selfvote from MoI and the sarcasm from shadow seem to show more of a town mindset, scum generally don't play that loosely. (at least from my experience)

-Not liking benmage much, mostly for his first two posts, he makes a silly RVS post and immediately follows it up by...chiding everyone for not taking the game seriously...

What's this? You like my Self-Vote while not liking Benmage's first two posts which also contain a post 1 Self-Vote?

This looks to me like you're twisting his words. He mentioned that Benmage's choose was just RVS (was it? doesn't really matter, I guess). It makes sense to me that someone would discount an RVS self-choose but find a serious one townish.

Actually, despite white I just said about DCLXVI, his posts since then have been pretty scummy. This is an interesting quote:

Was just planning on just reading this thread before bed, but this needs a response.

So he wasn't planning to post, but since Regfan called him scum, suddenly he decides it's too important to wait? This pretty clearly shows that to him, defending himself takes priority over scumhunting. Yes, he also called Reg scum in that post, but it was more of an afterthought than anything. (As town, I think defending oneself and scumhunting are both important, but at most, they're equals. Scum, IMO, might place more of a priority on defense.)

@Edd in #896:

1. I don't know

how

exactly scum could use that information, but I know that giving them more info is never a good idea. A nameclaim would not be helpful to the town unless we were close to actually lynching Starbuck.

2. He...wasn't...the top Choose wagon at the time. Right?

3. As you can see from #510, I had already had reasons to suspect Sala. The case I posted later just presented those reasons more clearly, and added a couple of other things that I had noticed. Clearly, it didn't work out, but my intention was to convince others to vote him.

@Regfan: How do you think I can improve my play, here and in the future? I think my case on Sala is "real content," but....

@Tammy: What do you think of Shinori? I ask because you just saw him as scum in Leprechaun Mafia (and I'm lazy).

[bvoigt]

Bvoigt - I talked about Shinori a bit, but since you were his partner, you should know more. Anyway, he seems much more relaxed than any of the times I've seen him as scum. But, he hasn't posted enough for me to get a real read on him yet.

I think you're right, but I'll need to look more closely when I'm actually awake.

@Magna in #1013:

1. I had another catchup post through page 14, and then, IIRC, didn't find much to comment on in the next few pages.
2. What I'm saying is that

DCL

thought it was RVS. His exact words were "a silly RVS post."

Fuckit

Unvote Vote JAL

ALL ABOARD

Oh please, and you were just going after me for being on a "useless" wagon.

This post gives off scumvibes.

I also think the case Feysal just posted is scummy. Yes, Starbuck has probably been inconsistent. But I don't think it's a scum sort of inconsistency, if that makes any sense. And the use of the term "appeal to emotion" just sounds like he's throwing out a buzzword. I dunno-- hard to explain, I guess, but it sounds like this case is getting pushed with scum motivation.

[bvoigt]

bvoight: Speaking of buzzwords. How does that explanation about how Feysal's case is bad make him scum? What about DCL's post gives you scumvibes? You're making people fill in the blanks for you.

DCL's is just such a useless, twisty attack, especially since he only had one other comment in the last few pages. Feysal-- I don't really know how to explain it, I guess. TBH, if you're not able to "fill in the blanks" already, I won't be able to convince you anyway.

I think kortul is town, so I'm sticking with my Choose vote on Feysal.

If you have any questions for me, please ask. I will compile a full list of my reads at some point.

[bvoigt]

Feysal:

Since you didn't answer it, who do you want to shoot?

I had not read the latest page the last time I posted, so I did not read your question until later.

Starbuck. No question. She is my strongest scum read, and even if she somehow were town, she richly deserves having her head stuck on a pike for doing nothing all day.

I would also love to kill Delirious Edd for having the gall to both want me dead and telling me not to kill my strongest suspect, but unfortunately scum takes precedence.

You seem to be one of the few people, if not the only person, to suspect Starbuck. What makes shooting her a better idea than shooting someone who you have a weaker scumread on, but also is more of a consensus choice as scum?

I have to admit, Saporerint's initial post is pretty good. It's far from obvtown, but...ugh, I don't know. I'm no longer confident this slot is scum.

@Sapo: What are your thoughts on Feysal? Why did you think RedFF was town? (ninja'ed)

Saporerint is an improvement to the Sala slot in my eyes. I may agree or disagree with his opinions and reads, but he is working and giving his opinions, which is good for future analysis (even if this may be driven by wagon on him).

This doesn't really say anything. So far, what are your thoughts on them?

[bvoigt]

@Sapo: What are your thoughts on Feysal? Why did you think RedFF was town? (ninja'ed)

This was directed at either/both of you, BTW.

[bvoigt]

You seem to be one of the few people, if not the only person, to suspect Starbuck. What makes shooting her a better idea than shooting someone who you have a weaker scumread on, but also is more of a consensus choice as scum?

He's only saying this so people can stay away from his wagon.

But it doesn't really matter, since he's scum, etc.

Also, how do you feel about being lynched? Since you know, there is no wagon near yours, and there is a very very high percent that there won’t be in the next 2-3 days.

Ignoring suspicion won't just magically make it go away.

I'm not sure how to respond to this. I asked if anyone had questions for me, and have been trying to contribute. But anyway, there seems to be enough support for a Shadow lynch. I'm not really convinced he's scum, but....

UNVOTE: Saporerint
VOTE: Shadow1

@bvoigt - so far i like Saporeint, and the slot overal got my weak town read. This hydra is working, you can see reads changing over time and the reasons why. Besides, i 've seen Iec scum game recently, it was different, he is much more relaxed and open.

Could you link to that game, please?

I'm just not getting any scumvibes from Saporerint. Sometimes they just seem null, but other posts (like #1186 and #1236) do feel town. I can follow his thought processes and they seem to be genuinely scumhunting. I dunno...it seems to happen too often that someone gets replaced and the new player totally changes my opinion of the slot.

[bvoigt]

@Feysal: Can you respond to my question, please?

[bvoigt]

I will be online in ~9 hours, and claim then if necessary.

What on earth is this.
People don't have to ask you questions. People don't have to do your work for you. If you're town, pull your own weight--no one is going to do that for you.
You have seven votes on you at the moment, and are voting your counterwagon just to save your skin without even acknowledging those voters. Who do you think are the scum in your wagon? Why aren't you engaging them AT ALL? Why are you just voting to save your sorry backside without giving any sign that you would be a much better asset to town than Shadow1psc?

Wagon analysis is not how I scumhunt. I think it can work for other people, but it hasn't been effective for me in the past. Plus, with the deadline coming up, half-hearted bandwagon votes are no longer a scumtell. (I'm generalizing here, but you get the idea.) It's for this reason that I feel like DCL's #1374 is "trying too hard."

Feysal

: I find it interesting that I am listed as null-leaning scum, and starbuck is listed as scum but Feysal puts his choose on me.

still scum.

Would it make any sense for Feysal to be one of 2 Choose votes on Starbuck when the deadline is close

and

he found DCL somewhat scummy? His case on Lyanna is equally contrived. This just seems like a last-ditch attempt to get towncred, especially because of what Tierce had just said. It doesn't look sincere at all. You know what, I think both of our choose wagons are scum and don't want another claim today.

Unchoose: Feysal
Choose: DCL

@Mina: Can you give an example of a Faraday game where an evil-seeming character was actually town? The only possible explanation I see here is that Stefan is scum and screwed up.

UNVOTE: Shadow
VOTE: StefanB

[bvoigt]

I've thought that Feysal and DCL were scum for a long time. And even if I didn't think Stefan was scum, it would still be pro-town for me to vote him. Obviously, I'm not 100% sure on any of my reads. What's your point?

Here is the scenario I'm envisioning: Tierce had just called me out for not analyzing my wagon. DCL was desperately looking to get towncred because he was about to get chosen. So he decided that it would look town to analyze the wagon on him. However, to me, his analysis looks completely contrived and insincere. (Gut is a part of that, I guess you could say.) It doesn't feel like a townie's true beliefs; it just feels like scum trying to look helpful.

Are you sure you have the right game? I don't think Tyrion and Littlefinger were in ACoK Mafia. Actually, I don't want to talk about this anymore until Stefan answers this:

@Stefan: Have you read the books?

[bvoigt]

Ah, I see. Thanks. But that game called townies "Innocent Aligned," which is completely up for interpretation.

Feysal, not sure what I can say about Magna and Starbuck's respective self-chooses, other than that I totally disagree. And now I'm going to bed.

[bvoigt]

I'm Roose Bolton, Odd Night Vigilante. Flavor says I'm the killer of Robb Stark and Warden of the North, but I still have a lot of things I need to accomplish. I'm looking for immediate glory for House Bolton. The ability name is

I'm gonna leech your face

.

1) Minimum (Mina/CES)

2) Lyanna Stark (Tammy)

3) Mockingjaye

4) Dolorous Edd (Ser Arthur Dayne/bodean44)

5) Staeg

6) Tyene Sand (Tierce)

Petyr Baelish7) kortul

Hyperion8) Shinori

9) MagnaofIllusion
10) Plum's Yo Mamma
redFF11) DCLXVI

hasdgfas12) Albert B. Rampage

13) Shadow1psc

14) Regfan

pappums rat Amrun15) Seraphim

sword of omens16) greenknight

17) Bvoigt

18) Benmage

19) Mastermind of Sin

20) Plessiezarus (Zar/Plessiez)

21) Feysal

22) Pandora (Hydra)

Salamence20 23) Sapororerint (Iecerint/Saporovirus)

24) Starbuck

25) BBmolla

26) SnowStorm

27) Jal
28) StefanB

POE here. People I think are town are in green. Please lynch Feysal at some point, and don't give MOI a free pass.

[bvoigt]

Hey, I'm here and will read as soon as I can.

[bvoigt]

OK, lurking the wagon away clearly isn't gonna work at this point.

You guys saw that the jail votes will be posted, right? So just make sure your choice makes sense as town.

Shadow, should I say I think your scum, or just suggest that you were busdriven or something?

[bvoigt]

WIFOM is so much fun.

[bvoigt]

Hey Scumhunter, we've been buddies two games in a row.

[bvoigt]

At least my other buddies are all obvtown.

[bvoigt]

BTW, I'm a jester.

[bvoigt]

You're not very good at bussing.

[bvoigt]

I really suck at Mafia.