A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Eddard Stark]

The last hero of the First Men lived during the Long Night. His story is Westerosi in origin and appears to be on a similar arch to Azor Ahai, a person who saves the world from the darkness. The tale of the last hero is told by Old Nan to Bran, the tale is unfinished however, as Old Nan is interrupted in the telling of it by Maester Luwin.

Day 1, Votecount 56

Saporerint (3) - BBmolla, Albert B. Rampage, StefanB
Feysal (1) - Starbuck
bvoigt (8) - SnowStorm, Pandora, Seraphim, Plums Yo Mamma, Dolorous Edd, Shinori, Feysal, Shadow1psc

StefanB (10) - Regfan, Tyene Sand, Saporerint, kortul, DCLXVI, bvoigt, Staeg, Mockingjaye, MagnaofIllusion, greenknight

Plums Yo Mamma (1) Benmage

Not Voting (5):

Jal, Minimum, Plessiezarus, Lyanna Stark, Mastermind of Sin

With 28 alive it takes 15 to lynch.

• Deadline
  : 5th September at 11:59pm Ireland time. (GMT+1)
  
• Countdown to deadline
  : (expired on 2012-09-05 18:59:59)
  
• Starbuck is V/la

No More Choosing

Feysal (7) - greenknight, Shinori, Benmage, Albert B. Rampage, Saporerint, Mastermind of Sin, Jal
Minimum (1) - Mockingjaye
Starbuck (1) - Starbuck
greenknight (1) - Seraphim

DLCXVI (15) - Tyene Sand, Plessiezarus, Regfan, Pandora, Feysal, Lyanna Stark, Kortul, Plums Yo Mamma, Staeg, Dolorous Edd, SnowStorm, Shadow1psc, bvoigt, DCLXVI, MagnaofIllusion

kortul (1) StefanB

Not Choosing (2):

Minimum, BBmolla

With 28 alive it takes 15 to 'Choose'. Once a choose has 15 votes it will be locked in but not end day.

A Choose has been locked in. Further choose/unchoosing will not be counted.

Just under 3 hours until deadline.

[Dolorous Edd]

I'm about to go to sleep, but: DEdd, if bvoigt flips town, will you selfvote tomorrow?

Of course not?

But it's much better than anything you have left to work with today, isn't it?

[Tyene Sand]

Less than three hours to go.

What the hell is this about no-lynching?

Mina, the point of lynches is getting scum AND analyzing what happened come later days! Why are you removing all worth of today's lynch wagons by proposing no lynch?

StefanB may well be town, but a no-lynch is worse than a mislynch. I want two town-powered deaths (lynch and choose). I want wagons. I want analysis. I want flips and reactions. I want to see flows between the lynch and choose wagons. These are things that point toward people's alignments. And you're trying to remove that? Why the hell are you afraid of a VT mislynch? Even if he is town, this lynch gives us delicious delicious info.

I am not unvoting. And people should get their votes on one of the main wagons and push it through. The idea of no-lynching on D1 of a Large is ridiculous.

[Plessiezarus]

So I kind of still want to lynch bvoigt, but if Shadow uses his role on him tonight, he'll know if the claim is true and he'll also block him. That could save us from lynching an innocent bvoigt or from an evil role use. I don't know who else I'd lynch though. Maybe Shinori or Feysal.

I don't understand why you (or MoI, for that matter) thinks this is the best way to go. Vig is already a provable role. We'll likely know if bvoigt is lying or not tomorrow, if he uses his kill. If Shadow blocks him, then we'll only know that Shadow

claims that

bvoigt is a Vig. And if bvoigt is a (town-aligned) Vig, we'll have missed out on a chance to shoot scum.

I really don't want to test one claim I doubt by having to rely on the word of a second player whose claim I'm also not inclined to believe.

Have you commented on Shadow's claim yet? Oh, right, no. Have you commented on

anything

since your alleged Mason partner claimed? Any thoughts on the people who were voting for him? Why has the fact you've (apparently) stopped hiding your role made you

even less talkative or helpful

?

~ Pless

[Staeg]

I'm about to go to sleep, but: DEdd, if bvoigt flips town, will you selfvote tomorrow?

Of course not?

But it's much better than anything you have left to work with today, isn't it?

I was under the assumption that you had role info, because lynching a TWICE-CONFIRMABLE role is, uh, retarded?

Also I'm with tierce.

[StefanB]

So I am going to sleep, sorry work tomorrow.
Go town.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I don't understand why you (or MoI, for that matter) thinks this is the best way to go. Vig is already a provable role. We'll likely know if bvoigt is lying or not tomorrow, if he uses his kill. If Shadow blocks him, then we'll only know that Shadow claims that bvoigt is a Vig. And if bvoigt is a (town-aligned) Vig, we'll have missed out on a chance to shoot scum.

Um so a Vig is absolutely proveable if bvoigt claims a kill uncontested? Let me ask you about this ...

1. How does bvoigt claiming a successful kill assure that he's a Vig as opposed to another role (such as SK or member of a Mafia group) that has killing capacity.
2. Say that tomorrow bvoigt claims to have shot player Y and player Y is not dead. What information are we sporting from that?
3. Do you think bvoigt and Shadow are scum together?
4. We are apparently missing out on our chance to lynch scum today. Why is confirming (potentially) bvoigts' role more damaging than that?

[Dolorous Edd]

I was under the assumption that you had role info, because lynching a TWICE-CONFIRMABLE role is, uh, retarded?

Who said I don't? But trying to out guess the mod is, uh, retarded?

You can of course

infer

, but you can only be so much sure.

[Staeg]

If you had role info, you'd be 100% sure. And what was that about outguessing the mod?


Off to sleeeep

[BBmolla]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: StefanB

[Pandora]

UNVOTE: bvoigt
VOTE: StefanB

The idea of no lynching Day 1 with this many players is causing me physical pain. Three more, please.

[Pandora]

-- Quilford

[Plessiezarus]

Um so a Vig is absolutely proveable if bvoigt claims a kill uncontested?

No? I don't remember using the word "absolutely". Do you thinking "claiming a kill uncontested" is the only way bvoigt can demonstrate he is a vig? Do you think Shadow claiming to have tortured bvoigt tomorrow and discovered that he is a vig will "absolutely prove" that this is true?

1. How does bvoigt claiming a successful kill assure that he's a Vig as opposed to another role (such as SK or member of a Mafia group) that has killing capacity.

Obviously it doesn't. (But if there are more than the expected number of kills, it certainly suggests it.) But for that matter, how does bvoigt being a Vig ensure he's pro-town? (I mean, Storm had a

scum-aligned day vig

-- merely being a vig isn't proof of alignment.)

2. Say that tomorrow bvoigt claims to have shot player Y and player Y is not dead. What information are we sporting from that?

Quite a lot, obviously?

3. Do you think bvoigt and Shadow are scum together?

I certainly don't think it's impossible. (And of course, they don't even have to be scum

together

for Shadow to potentially lie about the role.)

Do you think a plan that relies on Shadow being town-aligned, not role-blocked and surviving the night is a sure-fire approach?

4. We are apparently missing out on our chance to lynch scum today. Why is confirming (potentially) bvoigts' role more damaging than that?

Deliberately not lynching today is also a bad idea. (But I don't actually understand why you've asked this question - I have not compared the two ideas.)

~ Pless

[Jal]

I think Stef is town.
I think Edd is town and believes in what he is saying.
Don't quite believe in Bv's claim on a personal level either.

Unfortunately, I don't think Bvoight's wagon is happening, especially with the hop-off of Pandora. Even with that claim, people don't like to take out their PRs D1. I am also not a fan of nolynching today.

VOTE: StefanB

[kortul]

What a strange game. With 28 players and 2 hours before the deadline there are talks about no-lynch? What will we analyze tomorrow, if some lurkers will be killed at night?
And the great idea of flash lynching yet another player? Not enough claims for today?

I thought i would have to switch to bvoigt if needed, but with a vig claim it isn't necessary if this is multiball (more likely), or if he is telling the truth. My vote stays. I already told that i don't believe Stefan VT claim anymore, but even if i am wrong, i don't want a repeat of day 1 tomorrow and will say sorry to him after the game, and explain again why i don't believe him. I do hope that there are enough sane players there to vote.

I am tired and off to sleep. If i won't survive through the night, i believe in mason claims (i already explained that greenknight accepting the vig would be more logical if he were scum, imho) and Shadow role (not alignment).

[Tyene Sand]

Day 1, Votecount 56.5

Saporerint (2) - Albert B. Rampage, StefanB
Feysal (1) - Starbuck
bvoigt (8) - SnowStorm, Seraphim, Plums Yo Mamma, Dolorous Edd, Shinori, Feysal, Shadow1psc

StefanB (13) - Regfan, Tyene Sand, Saporerint, kortul, DCLXVI, bvoigt, Staeg, mockingjaye, MagnaofIllusion, greenknight, BBmolla, Pandora, Jal

Plums Yo Mamma (1) Benmage

Not Voting (4):

Minimum, Plessiezarus, Lyanna Stark, Mastermind of Sin

With 28 alive it takes 15 to lynch.

• Deadline
  : 5th September at 11:59pm Ireland time. (GMT+1)
  
• Countdown to deadline
  : (expired on 2012-09-05 18:59:59)
  
• Starbuck is V/la

76 minutes. Two votes needed. You know who I suddenly want dead?

Not Voting (4):

Minimum, Plessiezarus, Lyanna Stark, Mastermind of Sin

Get a frigging vote in.

None of you are new at this, you know we need a lynch. Stop pussy-footing and do it.

[Tyene Sand]

Talking things over with Zar in the QT now. Will have a vote soon (if needed).

How 'soon' is five hours later, Pless?

[Plessiezarus]

The point of lynching is to narrow the suspect pool, get a flip, and use a shot to get scum.

Even though I still think Tyene is quite likely to be scum

I agree with Tyene about this. Just as important as what you've listed is the chance to analyze the wagons afterwards. The unblockable vig-kill (assuming DCLXVI is even town) is not an alternative to a proper lynch.

Right now there is no chance that Stefan is scum.

"No chance"? Seriously? I mean, yes, I think he's probably town, but

no chance

?

If he is not lynched today, I'm willing to bet he will not be lynched for the rest of the game.

I think a lot of people are voting for Stefan for dubious, weak reasons (like "I don't want another claim") but reading 1336 hardly makes me think Regfan, for one, is going to drop this tomorrow. What has Stefan done

that he hadn't already done

that will prevent him from being lynched "for the rest of the game"?

We're already getting at least two flips: DC's and his vig target.

DCLXVI's vig-target won't tell us much except for who DCL suspected. And he'll be dead, as you note. So it won't tell us much of anything.

On the other hand, some people claim to suspect Stefan and some claim to think he is definitely town. If nothing else, lynching Stefan will tell us which of them are right.

~ Pless

[Tyene Sand]

The point of lynching is to narrow the suspect pool, get a flip, and use a shot to get scum.

Right now there is no chance that Stefan is scum. If he is not lynched today, I'm willing to bet he will not be lynched for the rest of the game.

We're already getting at least two flips: DC's and his vig target.

Why just get rid of a townie for no reason?

Tell me you're joking, Mina.

TWENTY EIGHT PLAYERS. And you're shying away from a D1 lynch. I understand having too many townreads and being convinced that there is scum among the strong players you've cleared. But THIS? This won't fix the issue. This will make it WORSE and you know it. Get a vote down.

[Tyene Sand]

PLESS. You are not voting. Why are you advocating for a lynch when you're not even voting anyone?!

[Pandora]

We should start a quickwagon on them! That will ensue we get a lynch today. (Minimum and MoS are probably not going to listen since they think this is a good idea. Anyone not voting Stef is pursuing the no-lynch agenda right now)
- Not Quilford

[Plessiezarus]

Talking things over with Zar in the QT now. Will have a vote soon (if needed).

How 'soon' is five hours later, Pless?

Zar keeps making sad faces at me when I argue that we have to lynch Stefan.

(Five hours later in a game that has taken over two weeks seems pretty soon to me, though .)

~ Pless

[Lyanna Stark]

Calm the fuck down.

We have over one hour. Over one hour. And two votes needed to get a lynch. Two.

You know these votes are coming. Stop hyperventilating now and stop bitching about it.

Pless has obviously stated his intention to vote. I said I'd be back when I unvoted for the purpose of discussion. This is not the end of the world.

Breathe.

VOTE: stefan

[Tyene Sand]

So you're going to drive this down to the last ten minutes and make me have a conniption when my connection inevitably fails and I can't see if there was actually a lynch, right, Pless?

I mean if I die of stress you get rid of a scumread, but

come on

. No one else is going to be voted for at this stage. What are you waiting for? Why the need to drag it into literally (welcome to Europe) the 11th hour?


PEdit: I just don't see the point of waiting, there aren't going to be massive revelations an hour to the deadline. But thanks for voting. You can get your cookie and juice pack on the table outside~

[Faraday]

I SUCK. THAT IS ALL