A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Tyene Sand]

DCLXVI wasn't killed at the end of the day, folks. He was chosen. He died at NIGHT. Go read the mechanic. He had a chance to discuss things with his team even if they only have night-talk (which IIRC Faraday prefers to do over daytalk, but I might be wrong).

Lyanna and D. Edd have pretty good towntells in not realizing this (since DCLXVI's team obviously did). Pit it's people I already had townreads on.

[Tyene Sand]

s/pit/pity

So the person you nominate will

die during the next night phase

. On the other hand they won't just die. They'll recieve a 1-shot strongarm vig shot during the

night

which they can use to kill a player of their choosing. This strongman vig cannot be blocked/redirected/protected from by any active or passive abilities. Edit: So they'll kill and die on the same

night (Night 1)

[Zdenek]

IIRC Faraday prefers to do over daytalk, but I might be wrong).

In ASOS, LMP and I, a scum team of 2 had day-talk. I don't think that the main scum team did, but I could be wrong.

In AFFC, there was only one scum team with day talk.

[Tyene Sand]

Thanks. I didn't bother to check, that was from memory.


This is still bothering me. Why the masons? They were not being particularly useful, leading visibly, etc. They were not typical N1 kills, even for a team that could afford to off the two of them at once, if that is the case.

This is another indication that there is scum among my giant pile of townreads, and it's likely to be among the strong players. I'm sorry, but you don't let the lot of players who are reading TOWN TOWN TOWN live just to kill two meek, sheepish masons whose PR worth is essentially null at that stage.

Mark my words--there is scum among the strong players in this game, and they are hiding in the numbers of townreads (probably to foster paranoia, to which I say whelp, too late, suffering from it since Yesterday).

I want to lynch clear scum today, which means bvoigt, but I am incredibly wary of the people I've been clearing left and right. I need to see what reads stand up once multiball is factored in and possibly work with that. Work for tomorrow.

[Plums Yo Mamma]

OH BVOIGT WAS SCUM
OH THE PERSON PLUM TOLD YOU WAS SCUM REALLY IS SCUM
GOD WHAT A SURPRISE
WHAT A FUCKING SUPRISE

[Plums Yo Mamma]

also i will probably post something intelligible later, but I figured that a little bit of I told you so is never a bad idea.
Plus it will make Plum happy once she returns.

[Mastermind of Sin]

This is still bothering me. Why the masons? They were not being particularly useful, leading visibly, etc. They were not typical N1 kills, even for a team that could afford to off the two of them at once, if that is the case.

I would guess any/all of the following:

1) bvoigt's scumteam was afraid to kill shadow for fear of protective roles, so they decided to off the masons while they had the chance

2) bvoigt's scumteam tried to kill shadow and failed, and a different scumteam killed the masons because they didn't care if shadow targeted bvoigt.

Either of those easily explain the mason deaths, although there's probably more to it that we don't know. I wouldn't say their deaths were *completely* unexpected, though. It does lead me to believe that the scumteam who actually killed the masons are not particularly aggressive players, for whatever that's worth, because they took the safe choice over trying to find a stronger PR.

[Pandora]

I have been super busy all day and will be posting later tonight. I just wanted to drop in for a WHOOHOO with some party favors.
And note that bvoight is probably scum. I was going to say it was because he obviously didn't kill anyone last night but being blocked and a liar works.
Re Jailkeeping tonight I guess it depends on if you want to clear someone or doc someone. We can figure out who was blocked by outting people's choices tomorrow.

You know bragging is bad and you shouldn'twhoamIkidding *h5 Not Tierce*

also stop cutting me

[Zdenek]

A few things as I read through again (currently through page 13):

I think D. Edd is pretty obv. town
Shinori/Hyperion is probably town
Staeg seems town.

I would lynch Saporient based on the play of Salamance.

Lyanna, do you still have a scum read on Minimum and could you explain it if you do?

Cow is Town. Yay!

Why?

And I’m outright saying the odds that they are written that way in an Eddard Stark game is as close to zero as they get. I’ve been scum in all of the previous games. Two of which were multi-scum. The scum PMs made NO mention of the other factions directly.

My point to you was this – it looked very much like you are ‘inventing’ a reason to suspect Feysal for bringing up Multi-ball possibilities. And I’ve seen scum use the “they mentioned Multiball, they are scum” to attack Town in games here on-site.

Did MoI ever get around to attacking Sand for basically the same thing?

[Shinori]

I still really think that Staeg is scum.

[Shadow1psc]

I misread shadows saying Staeg instead of BVO. I don't know why.

I'm fine with BVO lynch, however if Bvo flips town we look at staeg and shadows because of weird stuff i got in my pm last night.

##Vote: Bvo

So, you have information that potentially clears Bvoigt and implicates Staeg and Shadow somehow and you're just fine lynching Bvoigt in case? If that's not what you mean, what do you mean?

No I think I actually have info that potentially pegs someone as scum along with BVO. It could implicate bvo as town though but it's also something I don't fele at liberty to discuss because it could just be more beneficial to scum than town.

Why mention anything then...?

[Zdenek]

Haven't read Bvoight in ISO, but his posts haven't struck me as too bright or too townie, so I wouldn't weep if the lynch landed there.

tbqh, I think that the claim makes bvoight MORE likely to be scum, but vigs can prove themselves and are counterclaimed with bullets etcetc

Yeah, a bv scum flip doesn't look good for Staeg. The first post looks like distancing and the second looks like gunning for town cred off a Bv scum flip, but he unvotes bv in his next post.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Yeah, a bv scum flip doesn't look good for Staeg. The first post looks like distancing and the second looks like gunning for town cred off a Bv scum flip, but he unvotes bv in his next post.

Yea, I also caught that, but in a somewhat different form. Yesterday:

Spoiler:

Odd/Even vigs are probably as common as normal vigs. I don't think that's what DEdd's talking about, though.

So, anyway - I don't think DE is holycraptown. So, unless he actually says something useful, I'm not moving.
(no, that's not rolefishing - that's me diving headfirst into the rolelake with spear in hand)

I'm about to go to sleep, but: DEdd, if bvoigt flips town, will you selfvote tomorrow?

Of course not?

But it's much better than anything you have left to work with today, isn't it?

I was under the assumption that you had role info, because lynching a TWICE-CONFIRMABLE role is, uh, retarded?

Also I'm with tierce.

If you had role info, you'd be 100% sure. And what was that about outguessing the mod?


Off to sleeeep

This interaction looks horrible, and he just looks like he is trying to avoid voting Bvoigt. However, if he really believed in what he was saying he wouldn't have changed his mind so quickly:

Yeah alright, explanations needed after what happened there

vote: bvoigt

The back and forth and the weirdness in Staeg's read on Bv really looks bad for him.

Kinda feeling badsy about regfan, though

[Dolorous Edd]

Yeah, a bv scum flip doesn't look good for Staeg. The first post looks like distancing and the second looks like gunning for town cred off a Bv scum flip, but he unvotes bv in his next post.

Yea, I also caught that, but in a somewhat different form. Yesterday:

Spoiler:

Odd/Even vigs are probably as common as normal vigs. I don't think that's what DEdd's talking about, though.

So, anyway - I don't think DE is holycraptown. So, unless he actually says something useful, I'm not moving.
(no, that's not rolefishing - that's me diving headfirst into the rolelake with spear in hand)

I'm about to go to sleep, but: DEdd, if bvoigt flips town, will you selfvote tomorrow?

Of course not?

But it's much better than anything you have left to work with today, isn't it?

I was under the assumption that you had role info, because lynching a TWICE-CONFIRMABLE role is, uh, retarded?

Also I'm with tierce.

If you had role info, you'd be 100% sure. And what was that about outguessing the mod?


Off to sleeeep

This interaction looks horrible, and he just looks like he is trying to avoid voting Bvoigt. However, if he really believed in what he was saying he wouldn't have changed his mind so quickly:

Yeah alright, explanations needed after what happened there

vote: bvoigt

The back and forth and the weirdness in Staeg's read on Bv really looks bad for him.

Kinda feeling badsy about regfan, though

[Dolorous Edd]

Crap, the original post was also quote messed up.

Sorry Faraday, please delete the above two posts

Here is how the post should look :p

Yeah, a bv scum flip doesn't look good for Staeg. The first post looks like distancing and the second looks like gunning for town cred off a Bv scum flip, but he unvotes bv in his next post.

Yea, I also caught that, but in a somewhat different form. Yesterday:

Spoiler:

Odd/Even vigs are probably as common as normal vigs. I don't think that's what DEdd's talking about, though.

So, anyway - I don't think DE is holycraptown. So, unless he actually says something useful, I'm not moving.
(no, that's not rolefishing - that's me diving headfirst into the rolelake with spear in hand)

I'm about to go to sleep, but: DEdd, if bvoigt flips town, will you selfvote tomorrow?

Of course not?

But it's much better than anything you have left to work with today, isn't it?

I was under the assumption that you had role info, because lynching a TWICE-CONFIRMABLE role is, uh, retarded?

Also I'm with tierce.

If you had role info, you'd be 100% sure. And what was that about outguessing the mod?


Off to sleeeep

This interaction looks horrible, and he just looks like he is trying to avoid voting Bvoigt. However, if he really believed in what he was saying he wouldn't have changed his mind so quickly:

Yeah alright, explanations needed after what happened there

vote: bvoigt

Kinda feeling badsy about regfan, though

The back and forth and the weirdness in Staeg's read on Bv really looks bad for him.

[Shinori]

Haven't read Bvoight in ISO, but his posts haven't struck me as too bright or too townie, so I wouldn't weep if the lynch landed there.

tbqh, I think that the claim makes bvoight MORE likely to be scum, but vigs can prove themselves and are counterclaimed with bullets etcetc

Yeah, a bv scum flip doesn't look good for Staeg. The first post looks like distancing and the second looks like gunning for town cred off a Bv scum flip, but he unvotes bv in his next post.

Along with other stuff.

Frankly if people want me to out infos i could. It could just be really bad though. so I'm waffling on it.

[Lyanna Stark]

Lyanna, do you still have a scum read on Minimum and could you explain it if you do?

Frustratingly enough I'm still about here:

I'm waffling a bit on minimum. I still feel like their posts are off, and while I don't know if I want them lynched I don't feel comfortable moving my vote at this moment. I need to think about this a bit. I'm not sure if I'm paranoid about that slot because right now I'm just paranoid of the slot or if I legitimately think they're scum here. I'm not a big fan of Post 641 because some of it felt off. The "thanks now you've guaranteed we'll get lynched" didn't exactly sit right since it was at complete odds with her earlier acknowledgment that she has a tendency to start awkwardly but is able to let her obvtownness shine through and was confident that she wouldn't end up getting lynched. We're a week from deadline, 5 people have replaced out, there are several others who are lurking or providing little content who are raising suspicions and enough people voicing opposition to the minimum lynch that the guarantee statement seems off. And I agree with Pless/Zar (?) who said that the unedited version would have had a better impact maybe. Her Post 643 similarly felt a bit off but does come far closer to what I would expect from Mina-town who's frustrated over suspicion and a possible lynch. I don't know if I'm being fair in thinking that these two posts feel off though because I keep thinking to myself that I know Mina's capable of channeling her town outrage and I worry that that is coloring my view of them. Anyway, I need to think.

There are certain things that lead me to getting a town read on them. For instance my interaction with CES and the way that CES told me to choose Greenknight in Post 1028, but then Mina starts posting. And some of Mina's posts really are fine and I start to get a town read on them like in Post 1194 but then we get stuff like Post 1469 which just reads over the top. (And, yes I know I have literally no right whatsoever to accuse someone else of having over the top posting.) It just seemed to come out of nowhere and for no reason - from an outside pov - but I'm not sure that it's alignment indicative as I know that Mina didn't think she'd have time for this game and has been busy so it could just be an effect of her being on edge.

Basically, I'm fencesitting at the moment. I'm not sure why some people have a strong scum read on them, and some statements she's made like "the people who are so smug in thinking they know our alignment" type of statements make me wonder how they are so confident because it reads as someone who is almost laughing at others who are reading them so terribly.

[Lyanna Stark]

Haven't read Bvoight in ISO, but his posts haven't struck me as too bright or too townie, so I wouldn't weep if the lynch landed there.

tbqh, I think that the claim makes bvoight MORE likely to be scum, but vigs can prove themselves and are counterclaimed with bullets etcetc

Yeah, a bv scum flip doesn't look good for Staeg. The first post looks like distancing and the second looks like gunning for town cred off a Bv scum flip, but he unvotes bv in his next post.

Along with other stuff.

Frankly if people want me to out infos i could. It could just be really bad though. so I'm waffling on it.

It's up to you. If it's pertinent to this particular lynch it could be good to out it, or if it's information you think will benefit town if you weren't around then maybe. Otherwise, if you think it'd be more beneficial if scum knew it, meh, wait for some more people to weigh in maybe.

[Staeg]

Yeah, a bv scum flip doesn't look good for Staeg. The first post looks like distancing and the second looks like gunning for town cred off a Bv scum flip, but he unvotes bv in his next post.

Yea, I also caught that, but in a somewhat different form. Yesterday:

Spoiler:

Odd/Even vigs are probably as common as normal vigs. I don't think that's what DEdd's talking about, though.

So, anyway - I don't think DE is holycraptown. So, unless he actually says something useful, I'm not moving.
(no, that's not rolefishing - that's me diving headfirst into the rolelake with spear in hand)

I'm about to go to sleep, but: DEdd, if bvoigt flips town, will you selfvote tomorrow?

Of course not?

But it's much better than anything you have left to work with today, isn't it?

I was under the assumption that you had role info, because lynching a TWICE-CONFIRMABLE role is, uh, retarded?

Also I'm with tierce.

If you had role info, you'd be 100% sure. And what was that about outguessing the mod?


Off to sleeeep

This interaction looks horrible, and he just looks like he is trying to avoid voting Bvoigt. However, if he really believed in what he was saying he wouldn't have changed his mind so quickly:

Yeah alright, explanations needed after what happened there

vote: bvoigt

Kinda feeling badsy about regfan, though

The back and forth and the weirdness in Staeg's read on Bv really looks bad for him.

Well
What happened at the start of the day was literally tired-me looking at the thread, going "woop, 666 was scum... hm, they opted to kill a mason... fuck, how did the other scumteam know which mason to kill on their own?" and then that didn't make sense, at which point I realized that it's A) not necessarily multiball B) 666's scumteam killed both masons C) bvoigt didn't vig anyone. So, a vig that didn't shoot should probably explain some things and a vote surely can't do any harm.
This is the point where I realize that we'd decided to have shadow torture bvoigt. That kinda locked the vote in but eh.

[Dolorous Edd]

DCL/redff interactions

redff-Starbuck

interaction makes it unlikely that Starbuck is Stannis aligned. The redff dragging out and even starting the interaction can be partners trying to early distance, but Starbuck’s side seems genuine. The responds to redff seemed genuinely confused, and he just seemed to repeat a lot of theory stuff back.

DCL - MoI/Shadow/Tyene

interactions makes it unlikely that any of them are Stannis aligned. See his post 804.

Weak attack on

Benmage

(in post 804). It looks like the type of attack/interaction a scum partner would throw out when making catch up posts/ reads.

Again, weak attack on

Feysal

(post 804). He says that he doesn’t like netural playing style. And he says he’ll post examples of this “tomorrow”, but never actually comes around to it. Actually, I think that makes it slightly less that Feysal is partnered with DCL. DCL would’ve prob continued on and posted examples because it wasn’t likely that he would’ve forgot what he said about his partner and prob wanted to make sure he continued on that.

After all this however, he simply “sheeps” me and chooses

Jal

, even though he has expressed slight scum reads on others, and he expressed no scum read at all for Jal. And in the tiers he posts in 804:

Townreads: Dolorous, MoI, shadow
null leaning scum: Tierce
Scumreads: Jal, Feysal

He lists Jal as a strong scum read. There is no way in he there can simply be a strong scum read based on sheeping someone else. Note, while he also mentions that he doesn’t like Benmage, Benmage doesn’t appear at all in the tiers (this is probably a plus in Benmage’s favor, seeing as DCL would’ve prob made sure he put him in the tiers if he mentioned him). Neither Tyene, who he also expresses scumread on. But Jal is there?

This really makes Jal a likely partner.

It’s the type of interaction that I would expect a scum who just came in the game to do. It is that weird combination of pushing on someone and saying they are scum, but knowing they are no where near a lynch, so it’s really a “safe-push” meant for you to look good. Not that it seems he put much effort in it though, because I really don’t consider saying “sheeping Player X” as really much effort.

I really don’t like the interactions with

Regfan

. Like at all. Even early when he replaced in, post 881, he starts interacting with regfan awkwardly, kinda isolating him for it seems no real particular reason.

Slight chainsaw in post 924 of

Kortul

, however in seems somewhat genuine and no really alignment indicative.

Again, back to the awkward interaction with regfan 1311. In usual cases, I take a scum pushing constantly on someone out of the blue as prob not partner indicative, but in this case the whole atmosphere just seems so rather awkward and poorly conveyed, that it just seems like it’s staged.

The BS throw at

Lyanna

in 1374 makes it unlikely for a Lyanna-DCL partnership.

Meh, the rest is just either continuing to just argue bsingly with Lyanna, or just hop on the Stefan wagon.

MoI

hammer of DCL makes it unlikely that he is scum with him. DCL got pissed that he was hammered. Not really sure why? The dude put himself at L-1, what the hell do you expect when you vote yourself, and then get mad you were chosen?

Meh, that’s pretty much it.

That was pretty much a redff/DCL sided interaction, so if someone has time to look at what others’ sides of the interaction, that can prob work out even better.

Sadly, I don’t have the time right now.

However, I do have time to look at Jal’s POV. Post 1395, Jal chooses Feysal over DCL. At the time, Feysal was at 8 and DCL was at 12, so it was pretty close, and could’ve still swung any way. This is what Jal had to say about DCL:

DLC's slot leans a bit town. redFF coming back after awhile, speaking only of Starbuck briefly and then replacing the game just struck me as town. I think scum would be a lot more mindful of what they'd say.

Which is pretty much crap.

He also hadn’t mentioned the redff/DCL spot at all before, making it convenient for him to come at any time and drop a read one way or another on the slot without having something before that he has to continue on.

TL;DR

Jal-DCL scum together is very very likely.
Regfan-DCL had some pretty weird interactions, so you should prob look over that yourself.
Starbuck/MoI/Shadow/Tyene/Lyanna/Feysal are all not likely Stannis aligned.
Benmage is on the fence, but it’s a slight feeling both ways, so prob very unlikely that much can come up from this (should prob look at the reverse interaction, though).

[Dolorous Edd]

So, a vig that didn't shoot should probably explain some things and a vote surely can't do any harm.

He could've easily been roleblocked or something? Why jump on him right away simply while waiting for an explanation? Voting someone means you think they're scum, or you are trying to apply pressure, or you're trying to achieve a

goal

. Simply voting them to wait for an explanation is just bad.

And yes, while a 2nd vote out of however so many people are needed to lynch can't do "any harm", it's expressing your thoughts to the others. And as I said, that means you're trying to really achieve a goal. Not wait for an explanation. Yes, after hearing an explanation you can then go ahead and vote based on if you didn't like it, but why are you voting

before

you hear the explanation.

[Dolorous Edd]

If Bvoigt flips on a different faction than DCL, then it is very likely that Staeg is his scumbuddy.

And at the same time, it will make a Jal-DCL scumbuddies much more concrete.

[BBmolla]

So, I have an X-Shot Protect ability that I can only use on myself. I used it last night. Could answer for a missing kill. Not going to tell you how many shots it has.

Going to vote Bvoigt

[Mastermind of Sin]

Why would you even bother to say something like that, BBmolla? Dumbass.

[BBmolla]

*shrug*

Why not?