A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[BBmolla]

What if I'm just lying to trick the mafia because I know a doctor was on me because he sent me a letter?

[Lyanna Stark]

Then you wouldn't go "I know a doctor was on me..."

I'd laugh and tell you that it was highly unlikely any mafia team killed you night one, but then they went and killed masons who were practically non existent in the game and were suspected for being fake masons and I don't have any clue anymore.

[Mastermind of Sin]

TBH it was pretty obvious they were masons. Anyone who still thought they were faking is pretty dumb imo.

[Lyanna Stark]

Well yes, if you went back and looked at what they said about each other, but people were still expressing doubts and more importantly they were a virtual non existence in the game. It's not like they took their confirmed status and tried to be upfront about anything.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Err no, I meant it was pretty obvious they were masons yesterday...before greenknight even claimed I was pretty convinced SnowStorm was telling the truth. That's why I tried to prevent the mason buddy from claiming and providing the scum with multiple kill targets...

[Lyanna Stark]

We're not disagreeing with one another. However, they were pretty non-existent in so far as giving opinions and trying to direct town. They seemed a rather benign pair so I'm pretty surprised they were taken out so early. I've seen confirmable town last for several days if they weren't much of a presence before.

[kortul]

Based on the flavor of the night events, DCLXVI killed one of the masons. If it is multiball, Stannis Faction should be ok with killing only one of supposed masons - if he flips scum, his partner will be lynched during the day, no need to waste the shot - therefore it is more likely that green was killed by another scum faction then. But, if this isn't multiball, than scum knew that the claim was true, and once one mason flips the other would be conftown and have to be killed sooner or later, so killing him was obvious thing. Which means we have to figure out - is this a multiball after all?

DCLXVI is of Stannis Faction.

Those who've read the book, was it the main faction against Llanister alliance?

Also, since BBmola "recieved a letter from someone, it says that Aegon Targaryen's forces are split up so that some do not know who the others are." - was Aegon Targaryen in any way connected with a Stannis Faction?

Shadow claims that bvoigt has no active role, ie he isn't vig. Good, at least this day will give away no extra claims to the scum for a change. Hmm, wait, Shadow claimed he will roleblock/check bvoigt before the night. So, if bvoigt was in DCLXVI faction, DCLXVI main priority would be strongkill Shadow to prevent him from spilling the results of his check on bvoigt. That means, that most likely bvoigt is from a different faction, and this IS multiball. Also, that means that bvoigt faction should be trying to kill Shadow at night, and failed, which is good. (well, there's crazy scenario when Shadow just buys towncred with giving away his partner, but that makes sense only if this isn't multiball, and even then Shadow lives until all the flips prove his words, so chances are real low).

VOTE: bvoigt

Will continue comments and thoughts in the next post while reading through the rest of the pages - doubt there would be new information on the setup later on, so want to separate the posts - just took a look on the vote count to make sure i am not hammering or something.

[kortul]

No quicklynch is fine with me, as long as there would be something to discuss and the posts will be informative. It can also give time for those who are not caught with the rest to finish their rereads, and for lurkers to finally come forth and give their thoughts and reads.

Unless you're claiming that I jumped off a mason

onto my scumbuddy

and pushed that wagon until the end (which was a wagon I had been supportive of

from the beginning due to redFF

, I have no idea how you think it makes sense for me to be scum at this stage.

If Zdenek is thinking in terms of multiball, he can see such scenario. Though, he forgot to mention that this was when green claimed mason, so hopping off wagon was nomal. And relation tells with someone of unknown alignment can be useful later, not a base for any strong suspicion now, unless you are not on wagon of your main scum suspect or something.

@Zdenek, i am curious, how do you read the thread? Your comment one thing, than in some later posts comment things that happened earlier. Ie do you reread several times, or are you doing ISOs, or is it something completely different?

BBmola is playing his own little game, since his ability claim doesn't indicate an alignment.

[kortul]

No I think I actually have info that potentially pegs someone as scum along with BVO. It could implicate bvo as town though but it's also something I don't fele at liberty to discuss because it could just be more beneficial to scum than town.

Frankly if people want me to out infos i could. It could just be really bad though. so I'm waffling on it.

Shinori

, if you tell this tomorrow, will it be more beneficial to the town and less useful to scum? If yes, and you don't really want to spill it out today, you can ask us to put you in a jail (with PM votes) for the night. With vague descriptions you are the only person who can decide on the best course of actions (assuming, you are town, of course).

Will be mostly L/A over weekened, will check DCL and bvoigt ISO. Outside interactions and stances will check when i will have time online, since it means searching through separate ISOs.

[Eddard Stark]

The Queensguard was created by Daenerys following the death of Khal Drogo, when she declared herself queen and her surviving followers her khalasar. Ser Jorah Mormont took an oath to serve and protect her, similar to that of the Kingsguard, thereby establishing her Queensguard. Three of Drogo's riders who remained with her became her kos and bloodriders after witnessing the birth of the dragons, Viserion, Rhaegal, and Drogon. By serving as her sworn protectors, they became members of the Queensguard.

Day 2, Votecount 3

bvoigt (7) - Dolorous Edd, Staeg, Benmage, Shadow1psc Mastermind of Sin, Shinori, kortul

Not Voting (17):

Minimum, Lyanna Stark, Mockingjaye, Tyene Sand, MagnaofIllusion, Plums Yo Mamma, Albert B. Rampage, Regfan, Zdenek, Bvoigt, Plessiezarus, Feysal, Pandora, Saporerint, Starbuck, BBmolla, Jal

With 24 alive it takes 13 to lynch.

• Deadline
  : 22nd September at 00:39am Ireland time. (GMT+1)
  
• Countdown to deadline
  : (expired on 2012-09-21 19:39:47)
  
• MagnaofIllusion is V/la

Just a reminder - Jail votes must be PM'd and cannot be changed once submitted. They will be revealed at the beginning of Day 3

[Regfan]

I don't think Shadow faking what essentially is a guilty on Bvoigt here as scum at all, it'd be suicidal which unfortunately means that my town-read on Bvoigt is wrong and even worse it means that Nacho wins a round. I'll probably take a look at the wagon again yesterday because I don't see scum hard-push-bussing on a lynch rather than potential choose yesterday. Also can we please for the love of god not rush today, I want time get a re-read of a bunch of players in.

I'll take some satisfaction in being right on DCL originally though was second doubting the read a lot during the night and spamming Faraday wanting to know if I was being vig shot or not. I don't think the mason deaths mean as much parnoia-esque stuff as Tierce/Tammy seem to have run with, think it's much more likely scum wanted to avoid the possibility of cross-killing knowing that it hurts both factions (Chrono Trigger, GvE some examples of it being the case) and decided it'd be safer just to hit masons and remove clears but will be going through a few of my middle-ish tier town-reads today in a re-read.

Zdenek, I don't think your Tierce scum-read is right at all, I'd suggest re-looking at that, the only point of yours on her that has some weight is her choosing DCL and starting a wagon on him there rather than on the votes but even that is very minimal thing considering everything that was going on during the back end of yesterday. You should catch up re-reading the whole thread properly though, then would be very interested in your reads on everyone else.

Shinori, you should out whatever information you have. It sounds like it's relevant to what's going on today plus I don't foresee much harm in it.

Kortul, the enemies of the Lannisters were the Starks (Mostly eliminated by book 5), Greyjoys, Tyrion (If he's in the game he's likely a SK), Stannis/his army and the Targaryens so Mollas message pretty much confirms that it's multiball with the factions being Stannis / Targayren.

[Plessiezarus]

Bvoigt is scum. Investigation returned

no active role

.

Weird. Didn't bvoigt claim vig after you'd already claimed your role? Seems a pretty reckless move on his part if so. Obviously happy to vote for him though (won't yet -- still rereading and trying to analyse the Stefan and DCLXVI wagons from yesterday).

What did I freaking say

Couldn't hear you over your repeated claims that DCLXVI was town, sorry .

Hoooold on

let's not quicklynch

. I like this lynch, but

we have the jail vote to deal with as well so we want everyone to check in and state they have sent a vote

--and there's no need to quicklynch anyway.

Even though Tyene is probably scum

I agree with this. Going to go back and read over day 1 again.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

EBWOP: Yeah, bvoigt claimed Vig in 1461. But Shadow had already claimed Torturer in 1321. So a pretty reckless move, I'd have thought. Guess he felt had to claim something though - the wagon on him was pretty big at that point.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

I find it curious that, for all practical effects, we only had a kill. DCLXVI's 'faction', whatever that means, knew who he was going to kill, obviously. So: are they responsible for the death of the other mason, or do we have another killing group, or did they doublekill, or do we have successful protections--we're not going to get an answer now, but this is food for thought for later.

Right -- this is certainly worth coming back to after we've had some more flips. Definitely feels like something odd happened last night. Doublekill seems unlikely (why would a scum faction try to kill one Mason if they couldn't also kill the other?). Some sort of role intervening to prevent the 'missing' kill seems most likely.

I'm fine with BVO lynch, however if Bvo flips town we look at staeg and shadows because of weird stuff i got in my pm last night.

So, you have information that potentially clears Bvoigt and implicates Staeg and Shadow somehow and you're just fine lynching Bvoigt in case? If that's not what you mean, what do you mean?

No I think I actually have info that potentially pegs someone as scum along with BVO. It could implicate bvo as town though but

it's also something I don't fele at liberty to discuss because it could just be more beneficial to scum than town

.

Why did you

bring it up at all

if you don't "feel at liberty" to discuss it?

This is still bothering me. Why the masons? They were not being particularly useful, leading visibly, etc. They were not typical N1 kills, even for a team that could afford to off the two of them at once, if that is the case.

I would guess any/all of the following:

1) bvoigt's scumteam was afraid to kill shadow for fear of protective roles, so they decided to off the masons while they had the chance

2) bvoigt's scumteam tried to kill shadow and failed, and a different scumteam killed the masons because they didn't care if shadow targeted bvoigt.

Either of those easily explain the mason deaths, although there's probably more to it that we don't know. I wouldn't say their deaths were *completely* unexpected, though. It does lead me to believe that the scumteam who actually killed the masons are not particularly aggressive players, for whatever that's worth, because they took the safe choice over trying to find a stronger PR.

Agree with this analysis, though (1) and (2) aren't the only options (if bvoigt is the SK, for instance, it's no mystery that Shadow wasn't killed -- nobody who wanted Shadow dead had the chance to kill him, since bvoigt was being role-blocked). Especially agree that the masons dying wasn't a total shock - the end of day 1 is full of people saying "well, the mason claims will be sorted out in the night". Seems a bit daft to then say "wow, I had no idea the masons would die tonight!". It's not a very adventurous choice, but it's hardly a complete surprise either.

(I thought the Mason claim was fake though ).

~ Pless

[Staeg]

(if bvoigt is the SK, for instance, it's no mystery that Shadow wasn't killed -- nobody who wanted Shadow dead had the chance to kill him, since bvoigt was being role-blocked

This can't be the case due to shadow's result.

[Regfan]

I just got some clarification from Faraday that everyones jailkeeping votes will be made public tomorrow in a vote count of a sort so instead of having us all arrange to vote 2-3 players that are fairly universal town-reads I think it's flat out better for everyone to just decide their jailkeeper vote privately, this way we can base reads of it later and it means that scum have very little information to work with when factoring in kills or who sends in the kills.

[Tyene Sand]

(if bvoigt is the SK, for instance, it's no mystery that Shadow wasn't killed -- nobody who wanted Shadow dead had the chance to kill him, since bvoigt was being role-blocked

This can't be the case due to shadow's result.

Incorrect. If we're going to go off the deep end of the speculation pool, a serial killer does not need active abilities.

Bulletproof, if they have it? It's passive.
Killing power? It's factional.
If they have an extra ability, it might be active or not. But the two typical aspects of a serial killer are usually not marked as active abilities. That's all speculation, though.

I wouldn't find it odd for bvoigt-scum to claim after Shadow1psc's Torturer claim, actually. 1) He could be distracted and missed Shadow1psc's claim (did he mention it before claiming? I should check but lazy etc.), in which case his faction probably doesn't have daytalk; 2) He thought he could get away with it, because deliberately blocking a vig on the night he can kill might not be in town's best interest. Odd-night vig can be a sleek claim for scum to make, because there are fewer 'missing' kills than with a full vig.

I would really like scumvoigt to post, though.


Regfan is right, though that was already evident in the vote count a while back. Nevertheless, I want bvoigt to post and more people's input on today. And I still have to look over Yesterday, but that's me being lazy atm.

[Plessiezarus]

(if bvoigt is the SK, for instance, it's no mystery that Shadow wasn't killed -- nobody who wanted Shadow dead had the chance to kill him, since bvoigt was being role-blocked

This can't be the case due to shadow's result.

But ... in the game Minimum talked about earlier (where Mina was the mod and used the Torturer role), the role PM explicitly said it wouldn't detect factional abilities. Isn't the SK's kill a factional ability?

~ Pless

[Mastermind of Sin]

We need like a billion prods please.

[Dolorous Edd]

We're not disagreeing with one another. However, they were pretty non-existent in so far as giving opinions and trying to direct town. They seemed a rather benign pair so I'm pretty surprised they were taken out so early. I've seen confirmable town last for several days if they weren't much of a presence before.

Well, you see, it actually makes perfect sense to take out the masons early.

1) The masons were pretty much confirmed townies. Yes, there was some doubt to their claim, blah blah blah, but sooner or later they would've even became more obv that they were masons. Taking them out early would keep the paranoia that there is scum in the strong town reads, or of course, there

is

scum in the huge pile of town reads, and in either case it benefits the scum.
2) No doctor would've really went for the masons. Yet at the same time, scum would be lowering the obv town pool while at the same time taking out the least likely paranoia theory (that SS and green were scum together).

I just got some clarification from Faraday that everyones jailkeeping votes will be made public tomorrow in a vote count of a sort so instead of having us all arrange to vote 2-3 players that are fairly universal town-reads I think it's flat out better for everyone to just decide their jailkeeper vote privately, this way we can base reads of it later and it means that scum have very little information to work with when factoring in kills or who sends in the kills.

Hmm.. you probably shouldn't have said that. For example, I interpreted the jailing as the mod will announce the

numbers

, not the actually people who voted where. If scum saw it like that too, they could've sent in their votes for someone to try block a PR or something.

Okay, will continue my DCL-interactions thing. Will prob look over who who voted where and for what reason, and prob look over Regfan as well.

[Dolorous Edd]

We need like a billion prods please.

Not really, day has only been open for 15 hours...

[Mastermind of Sin]

Seems like more than that.

[Dolorous Edd]

Linked chooses for the lazy. It probably isn't very helpful, but I do it anyways so it can help me if I need to re-look up where/when/why someone voted instead of having to dig through pages/ISOs.

No More Choosing

Feysal (7) - greenknight, Shinori, Benmage, Albert B. Rampage, Saporerint Mastermind of Sin, Jal
Minimum (1) - Mockingjaye
Starbuck (1) – Starbuck
greenknight (1) – Seraphim

DLCXVI (15) – Tyene Sand, Plessiezarus, Regfan, Pandora, Feysal, Lyanna Stark, Kortul, Plums Yo Mamma, Staeg, Dolorous Edd, SnowStorm, Shadow1psc, bvoigt, DCLXVI, MagnaofIllusion

kortul (1) StefanB

Not Choosing (2):

Minimum, BBmolla

A Choose has been locked in. Further choose/unchoosing will not be counted.

- Note, for Shinori, I linked the post where she wanted to Choose Feysal, she just didn’t do it in red, so her next post is her doing it in red (and it would be stupid to just link that).
- I have no idea why the hell Albert voted one way or another o.O.

Albert

, please explain why you chose Feysal, and please try to provide some reads/thoughts.
- WTF? Starbuck still had a chose on herself? C’mon, FFS please try to contribute to the game.

Also, while I was going through, I found this.

Benmage

, do you still believe in the same wagon analysis, or did your views change on some people?

[Zdenek]

Through page 32:

Vote: Pandora

Choose: Pandora

Fuck anonymous hydras.

MoS isn't reading the thread, and this is a pretty silly policy lynch and he's proposing while there is reasonable discussion going on.

EBWOP: oh, I just noticed that CES explained it here. Considering you're voting us, Salamence, shouldn't you be paying more attention to our posts?

This is just to remind myself to keep track of minimum's suspicions of the Salamance slot.

Also thought about Starbuck a bit today and I'm inclined to agree with Nacho, the whole "Give it to a VT so they can shoot" and 'self-vote' given her stance/thoughts on what the choose was is a fairly big town-tell and while I hate to admit it, she's very probably town.

You seem to have no problem with calling other people town. Why do you hate to admit that she is very probably town?

Well let’s see – your reason for calling Feysal scum is not that he called out Multiball but that he didn’t do it in a ‘Feysally fashion’ that indicates Town. It’s wrong but very different from Dol Edd who has possibly committed the “Jump on the first person to mention Multiball as possible / likely” tell that I’ve already explained.

Oh MoI, I expect so much better from you.

If we choose scum,

in the best case said scum misses town and cross kills rival scum

, and in the worst case he kills town, resulting in a one for one trade.

This is multiball?

How can you be so sure (unless it's made obv somewhere)?

UNCHOOSE: Lyanna Stark
CHOOSE: Feysal

PEdit: That.

Actually,

Choose: Feysal

I just re-read the first posts. No where does it state we have more than one scum team. It's indicated a bit, but the way you said it makes it seem more than assumption.

Don't be stupid, you two.

EBWOP: Edd and Tyene, that is.

It's far likely that this is multiball due to several factors, but I hate the way it was worded: Feysal isn't one to gloss over something he's just

assuming

, he's likely to explain it thoroughly.

They literally voted him for the same reason - talking about the game being multiball in a way that made them think that it wasn't an assumption.

Yup Shadow1 is scum also.

You tried to use AFFC meta in GvE, LvC mafia to attack Shadow1. Why do you still think that it's going to work here? Or if that wasn't because of meta, why did you think that he's scum?

Aaand the major hydra dissonance just showed that Edd is (are?) town (again). Thank you, come again, and I really should be napping, this Dornish sun is far too hot to face at this hour.

Hydra dissonance is not a town-tell; it's too easily faked.

I'm not sure how CES can compare between two different games.

Are you saying that comparing of two game (aka meta) isn’t valid?

When you read his whole post, it's pretty obvious what he was getting at:

I'm not sure how CES can compare between two different games. The last game we played I replaced in during lylo, honestly, I don't see how you can compare my lylo play (which is very shitty, I admit) to Day 1. CES never played a full game with me.

MoI is bothering me rather severely at the moment - his argument that Tierce's vote on Feysal was different that D. Edd's is bad and he's taken one line of Sala's post out of context in order to attack him. Both of these things seem fairly scummy to me. The reason that I am bothered is that after playing with MoI quite a few times, I've gotten the impression that he does things like this more as town, and is more careful when he is scum.

Overwhelmed by the pace.

I thought this was pretty obvious. Then again, not that surprising that Tammy can't understand basic implications when she's trying really hard to paint someone as scummy.

Oh the irony.

As for Starbuck, I don't think much of her claim or her Choosing herself. That is the kind of move I could see coming from inexperienced scum under pressure, as a last ditch effort.

Do you think that Starbuck is inexperienced scum?

This has an implication that twists the context of my words. That was my Choice before Tammy posted. It was not whimsical, it was not RVS, but it did not actually have to do with my reads in the game, since she had not posted.

I think that this is a good point against Feysal, and one thing that bothers me a lot is how Sand's scum read on Feysal vanished later.

I expect ~things~ from redFF. I also expect to be disappointed.

Since, he was apparently a scum read of yours, it's strange that you are providing him with the VI defence.

So far I think that Tammy Stark is town, but her comment to Shinori when he replaced in:

Just subbed in, anyone wanna give me a general overview of what's happened? Other than that I'll probably re-read and get fully caught up tomorrow.

##Unvote:

##Unchoose:

Yeah, make this easy and tell us who your partners are

concerns me because she didn't have a scum read on hyperion.

I think that Pandora is town. For a few reasons, but the best so far is post 660, attacks both Shinori and RedFF, but then dulls the attack on Shinori a little.

I think that PlessZar is probably for almost the same reason.

Unvote, Vote: Sala

While I don't have a problem with this vote, it comes at an odd time - Plum had just presented the case against bvoigt - and it seems to go against the flow of the game.

MoI's snowstorm vote comes a little later, it was for pretty bad reasons.

Should bvoigt flip scum, I think these two are good guesses for buddies.

[Plessiezarus]

Lyanna, I'll admit the fact the hydra-partner of Shinoris isn't 'new' does weaken the town-tell but while he may be nervous and weak as scum I don't think his solution to counter that would be bringing into it another player he has to have hydra-interactions with since they'd have to fake read disagreements ect.

Regfan could be scum because of this. He's maintaining a town-read for an absolutely ridiculous reason.

On a related note: the hydra dissonance has to end, and if it doesn't we start lynching them. We have to eventually be able to hold these slots accountable for their reads.

Every Hydra should start working on consolidating their reads

just like us

. We'll be posting our thoughts on the Stefan wagon shortly.

Zdenek have you seen Regfan as scum before? To us, the way he voted StefanB looks quite natural coming from him as hypoTown. Plus, Regfan calling people town for reasons

God only knows he has

doesn't ping my ScumDar (this is Zar speaking).

~ Zar.