Tyene
: voted to Choose DCL in
1222; this post has no explanation for the Choice but it clearly builds from earlier suspicion of the slot and some recent-ish interaction with DCLXVI when he replaced in. More justification in a subsequent post,
1278 (by which point the DCLXVI wagon had actually grown quite a bit).
Only Choice wagons with any support at the time of 1222 were Feysal's (10) and greenknight's (9, including Tyene herself). Feysal had been a weak scum-read of Tyene's up to this point, so wouldn't have been surprised if she went back to that wagon.
Fairly confident Tyene isn't on the same scum faction as DCLXVI
. Going into this reread I figured there was a chance she could have been bussing (DCLXVI had been picking up some votes), but on closer inspection this just doesn't make any sense. Still lingering suspicions, but if she's scum it's on a different faction, I think.
Regfan
: originally voted DCL (in
1206) since "there's no support" for his preferred wagon on Stefan or Minimum. Moved to Choose instead in
1244 after Tyene's Choice.
Regfan had has DCL as a scum-read based on his posts after replacing into the game (
877). Originally voted for DCL because people were reluctant to vote Stefan; switched to Choosing DCL and voting for Stefan after Tyene and I had made the Choose wagon more viable than the lynch wagon.
By this point Feysal's wagon was the only one with any real support (9 votes) ... DCLXI had 3, kortul had 4 and greenknight (with 5) was clearly no longer an option.
Still have a decently strong town-read on Regfan and this hasn't done anything to change that. Bussing is more credible here than in Tyene's case, but I don't see any reason to suspect it (if anything, it's a bit unlikely, I'd say).
Regfan is also unlikely to be on the same scum-faction as DCLXVI
.
Pandora
: Chooses DCL in
1255 based on an earlier (and sustained) scum-read (see
1136, for instance).
Analysis of the competing wagons for Choosing are (unsurprisingly given the timing) much the same as for Refan. Feysal's was the only wagon with anything near 15 votes, and it hadn't much momentum left at this point. Only other rival wagon was kortul's (still with 4). While Pandora had kortul as a town-read (see 1136 again), they had Feysal as a strong-scum read. So, much as with Tyene, I'd have been unsurprised to see them Choose him again.
Bussing is more of a possibility here, of course (DCLXVI was on five votes to be Choosen already). Don't really understand why Feysal wasn't Chosen, actually --
after Choosing DCLXVI, did Pandora even
mention
Feysal again
?
Still, vague suspicions aside, we've had Pandora as a town read for a while now, and this hasn't changed that. Therefore we think
Pandora is unlikely to be on the same scum-faction as DCLXVI
(but a little more likely than Regfan, probably?).
Feysal
: Claims a "leaning scum" read on DCL in the post he Chose him (that's
1263). Would seem more honest to us to say he Chose DCLXVI to keep himself alive (he was still the only competing wagon, after all).
Had had nothing to say about DCLXVI before this post, and gave no opinion about redFF either.
Could easily see Feysal as being on the same scum-faction as DCLXVI
Lyanna
: First person Choosing DCL not to claim a scum read. (Choose in
1273; in
1350 confesses that she is "more confident in DCL flipping town" [than in Shadow doing the same, presumably?} but says she doesn't like any of the alternate wagons either.
Later posts (like
1375) suggest this was more or less a policy-Choose: Lyanna simply though Feysal would be more useful left alive if both were town. Don't think this is the approach a partner would take while bussing (why not try to get some credit for actually suspecting the partner you're voting for?) and (since we're fairly sure Tammy is town
anyway
) we think
it's very unlikely Lyanna is on the same scum faction as DCLXVI
.
kortul
: Says he is "leaning scum" on DCL when he Chooses him in
1276
No previous discussion of redFF or DCL. On the other hand, it wouldn't have been too hard for scum-kortul to justify moving to Feysal's wagon -- he had listed him as a town-read (see
1023) but only a weak one.
That said, the position of the vote on the wagon (and the lack of any competiting options beyond Feysal) make us think that
there's a decent chance of kortul belonging to the same scum-faction as DCLXVI
.
Plum/Nacho
: Chooses DCL in
1280. Don't really understand if this was based on a scum read or not. No further mention of DCL anywhere that I can see.
At this point the wagons on Feysal (on 9) and on DCLXVI (on 8) were neck and neck. Just no other credible options.
We had a strong town-read on Plum last week, but we're rapidly losing confidence in it.
Could easily see Plum as being on the same scum-faction as DCLXVI.
Staeg
: Chooses DCL in
1287. Seems like this was more of a policy Choose + a preference for Choosing DCLXVI over Feysal.
Moved off the kortul wagon to Choose DCL. Seems correct in assessing the kortul wagon as non-viable at that point.
Although the timing of the vote fits with a partner bussing, I think that (as I said about Lyanna) a scum in this position would manufacture reasons to suspect DCL beyond "he'll eventually be mislynched if he's town, and if not, he won't be of much use". Also
1473, his reaction to DCL's essentially posthumous "I was really town!" claim seems genuine. Our town-read on Staeg isn't all that strong, but he seems more likely to be scum on an non-Stannis faction, if at all.
It's possible Staeg is on the same scum-faction as DCLXVI, but I would lean towards thinking he isn't
.
Edd
: Chooses DCL in
1289] despite recently having listed DCL as "leaning town" (in
1242) and continuing to suggest that DCL was town (in
1323).
What's really off about this is that in 1242 he has Feysal as a strong scum read ... and Feysal was still the competing Choose wagon. Why move off somebody you think is scum and onto somebody you think is town when
these are the only competing wagons
?
This really doesn't seem to make any sense.
Edd, please explain this decision for us.
We still have a (weakish) town read on Edd, but stuff like this doesn't help at all. It just feels like he's not really paying attention to the game (despite all the posts) - even now he's not a hydra, his positions jump around like crazy from post to post.
Shadow
: Chooses in
1399 to "lock in our Choose". Is explicit in
1304 that his motive is to prevent a possible last-minute move to Feysal.
I don't think there was really any chance of this happening though.
Really, analysis in this case seems pointless before we see how bvoigt flips. If bvoigt is a member of the Stannis faction then Shadow very probably isn't. Just don't see Shadow claiming on a partner like this -- as others have said, it's suicidal.
If bvoigt is in a different faction, however, then I don't see anything here ruling Shadow out as a partner to DCLXVI.
bvoigt
: Again, no point analyzing this now. We're lynching him today anyway.
MoI
: Final Choose-vote for DCL (in
1468). No explanation given in this post, though he had previously said (in
1288) that he'd choose DCL over Feysal if he had to (but preferred Minimum to both).
Very hard to imagine DCLXVI not being Chosen at this point (even without any more votes, his was the biggest wagon left and there was no appetite to move elsewhere). Timing of the vote doesn't feel like bussing to me, though it's possible I guess? DCL and MoI had had little interaction before this - MoI had queried the inconsistency in DCL liking MoI for his self-choose but not liking Benmage's self-choose (in
816 and
1290), and that's about it. Think the dismissive "shouldn't have self-voted then" in response to DCL's post-Chosen town-claim (
1477) reads genuine, but meh.
It's possible MoI is on the same scum-faction as DCLXVI. We would guess not though.
.