A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[kortul]

Actually, i think i can answer to the last two points, since they are outside thoughts on Shinori, not questions directed to him.

Using the role as an excuse to do nothing has a short life-span unless... unless he can't die. Now, that's a really good point. If Shinori is bulletproof scum, this claim can keep him fooling us long enough, i can even see a scenario, that if he is a member of a faction with daytalk, some other member of his faction is follower and telling the results to Shinori. But, and that's a big but, if he is bulletproof, why go to such a complex scheme if you can use the results quietly within your own faction, and claim follower only if you are about to be lynched? I just don't see any extra advantages, so think Occam razor is applicable here.

If anybody can come with decent thoughts of what advantages Shinori!scum (or his faction) has because of such gambit, share them. Until that time i don't see him as a scum. Maybe Pandora is right in that we are missing something here, but what? For now i am fine to let scum factions worry whether he is town or a rival follower.

[Scumhunter]

Dude, cmon Broskis. I'm Jaime freaking Lannister. I boned my own sister. My dad shits gold. No way I'm not all about Casterly Rock and protecting King Tommen to rule the kingdom 4ever!! Man. I'm soooooooooooooo lazyyyyyyyyyy. Freaking A man.

[kortul]

So what? Who needs a second part of the claim instead of content? How that should help us to find scum? If you ARE lazy town, replacing would be better...

A notion of Jaime Lannister being a VT is interesting, i will leave this claim for those familiar with a last book and Faraday modding style. And i thought i've seen some Jaime Lannister breadcrumbs elsewhere.

[Pandora]

Pandora, I can kind of understand what you mean about Shinori, his scumhunting has been weak and his lack of stating he was a Frey yesterday when people were suggesting that Staegs role was a mason hunter are both scummy but the same time what's the thought process as scum? Are you saying he found out that Staeg was an investigative role and thought he'd out it and get him lynched over it? Because I don't think that makes much sense as scum, makes more sense to 1) Shoot the investigative role 2) Stay quiet, talk with partners who would likely advice against it or 3) Do nothing. His Tierce investigation is....weird and bad but I don't think he'd know that he'd have to out alternate results as scum and then check such a bad target or have his partners let him do so. I think it's more likely he's just terrible. Either way not comfortable lynching him today.

Actually that only makes sense if you forget that that night one scum wasn't having the best time putting their shoot face on, and the next day there was a free prison day, and they had the jailer sitting on their face. He actually eliminated half of that when he convinced everyone to give him the jailkeep vote (because ~*~reasons~*~) then outted Staeg the next day in a way that made him look terrible despite, and I emphasize this, Having No Actual Evidence Of Wrongdoing. While having done nothing to look at his target or at anyone.

We also did this on a day where we had a free protect/cop combo that we could have used on the flipping cop who would have gotten a positive on Shinori himself! I feel really stupid right now, why did we even do that? With as little information as 'investigated someone' we should have just switched the lynches.

[Eddard Stark]

House Wode is a noble house from the Riverlands. The house is sworn to House Whent. Their lands lie close to the border with the Crownlands. According to semi-canon sources they blazon their arms with three white hedgehogs on yellow. Their motto is "Touch Me Not".

Day 4, Votecount 6

4nx3ty (2) - Minimum, Regfan
Jal (2) - BBmolla, 4nxi3ty
BBmolla (1) - Benmage

Scumhunter (3) - Magua, Feysal, kortul

Magua (1) - Scumhunter
Feysal (1) - Plums Yo Mamma
Shinori (2) - Pandora, Zdenek

Not Voting (5):

Tyene Sand, Shinori, Mastermind of Sin, Jal, Lyanna Stark

With 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Deadline

: 6th October at 19:30am Ireland time. (GMT+1)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-10-06 14:30:47)

[Lyanna Stark]

Dude, cmon Broskis. I'm Jaime freaking Lannister. I boned my own sister. My dad shits gold. No way I'm not all about Casterly Rock and protecting King Tommen to rule the kingdom 4ever!! Man. I'm soooooooooooooo lazyyyyyyyyyy. Freaking A man.

So you've decided to be dead fucking weight, and just go on about your laziness. I don't buy into the crap assumption that people are too lazy to be scum and I happen to know that stick your head in the sand and hope things go away is your scum play.

VOTE: scumhunter

[Scumhunter]

Oh my goodness. No I mean I honestly generally I do avoid large games, this is the first game I've ever been in with this many players and I avoid it because I am kind of slow at processing things and stuff but yea, I'd say from your guys pov it looks bad and maybe I should replace out. Fffff. Reading the thread TONIGHT. If not I will post to ask for a replacement, you guys do deserve better for sure.

Oh and yea, I was surprised that Jamie Lannister = VT because he seems like he should be more epic than that, but alas, when you lose your sword hand you kind of become a noob at least for a bit.

[Pandora]

Oh my goodness. No I mean I honestly generally I do avoid large games, this is the first game I've ever been in with this many players and I avoid it because I am kind of slow at processing things and stuff but yea, I'd say from your guys pov it looks bad and maybe I should replace out. Fffff. Reading the thread TONIGHT. If not I will post to ask for a replacement, you guys do deserve better for sure.

O_o

Oh my god did you just turn from a blatant asshole into British Governor Scum?

[4nxi3ty]

not opposed to a SH lynch
never got scumvibes from Starbuck

shrugs

expected townplay more aggressive
yet my experience with limited

scratches head

waits for further content

[Eddard Stark]

Prodding Plums Yo Mamma, Feysal and Mastermind of Sin

[Magua]

Shinori's not scum. There's really zero scum motivation for Shinori-scum to do anything that Shinori's done, so that has to be attributable to bad play and not scum intent.

Also, for double bonus points, if Shinori *is* scum then Shinori's going to get shot by the other scumteam because he's an investigative role. If Shinori is bulletproof scum, then we have missing kills, which will be great. But that's all kind of irrelevant, because Shinori is just a bad player, but not scum. Pandora's case is effectively, "Shinori's play doesn't make sense as town or scum" and then divines from this that Shinori's scum. No.

Scumhunter is just trolling at this point. But, this isn't Day 1, it's Day 4. Totally fine with my vote on him. Regfan should jump on board.

[Regfan]

Magua, Pandora are obvtown for a bunch of reasons (Also you owe me one bit of effort because I'm taking time out of drinking to do this for you) with the strongest one being their hydra interactions come across as really really genuine. It's them scumhunting naturally and not worrying about their self-image. Best example I can find of what I mean is Post 95 where they cross-posted with different sort of reads; think as scum they'd have been conferring about what they're posting not to double up or at least Quilford would have refrained from submitting his post when seeing Shadow had posted opposite reads towards him as scum to avoid the 'hydra-inconsistencies!' argument being used against them. Shadow outting Quilford as the hydra member in their first post is also a town-tell. Quilford hates being scum and is relatively weak at it so I think she'd have waited to see if he wanted his main outted or not as scum to avoid meta-cases being used against him - the fact she was happy to jump into it shows nothing to hide. Their conversation element in Post 349 is more of what I mean there. Their reads and change in them are also very natural. Reads list in Post 1136 is very much of what I know of QuilfordTown. If you need or want more just ask

so I can turn you down

.

Scumhunter, remind me of Post 2401 later in the game or post-game. You'll enjoy it.

Actually that only makes sense if you forget that that night one scum wasn't having the best time putting their shoot face on, and the next day there was a free prison day, and they had the jailer sitting on their face. He actually eliminated half of that when he convinced everyone to give him the jailkeep vote (because ~*~reasons~*~) then outted Staeg the next day in a way that made him look terrible despite, and I emphasize this, Having No Actual Evidence Of Wrongdoing. While having done nothing to look at his target or at anyone. We also did this on a day where we had a free protect/cop combo that we could have used on the flipping cop who would have gotten a positive on Shinori himself! I feel really stupid right now, why did we even do that? With as little information as 'investigated someone' we should have just switched the lynches.

Disagree. Scum would have known that Staeg would never have been doc saved and wouldn't have had 'no-killing through' worries at all. Plus I don't see why he'd WANT to be jailkept as scum. I can get why he'd not want to be jailkept as town, that's a more logical argument but him wanting to be jailkept as scum would be limiting the scum members that can send in the night-kill, not exactly ideal so him claiming for the reason of 'being jailkept' is flawed. And eh. I kind of believe his 'meta-similarities between staeg play elsewhere and here' beacause his read changed on him the prior day before he investigated him. Don't see him pre-emptively changing a read just in case he got a result that led him to out it to push a mslynch. Long story short I think either way he legitimately thought that Staeg was scum when investigating him. And yes, Staeg shouldn't have been lynched. I really should have been more vocal about it.

Pedit: 4nxiety > Scumhunter. Plus I want to see his 'effortpost' first, should make reading him super easy.

[Plums Yo Mamma]

sorry that i avoid everyone so much
i just want to lynch scum
but I am so out of it right now I need to reread and fucking form some solid not shit reads
because right now I have zero confidence in anything
kortul is probably town, which means that I was being stupid for a long time

but
if you lynch scumhunter
i will fucking kill you all

i will start playing good now, though
or regfan can kill me like I'm sure he wants to
because I do not want tomorrow to come around, me to be confirmed town, and people to be like "fuck, i thought they were scum. what the fuck are you doing this game, Nacho?"

[kortul]

Pandora, let's see the picture based on your assumptions and logic in 2403. Scum!Shinori checks at night Staeg. At the beginning of day 2 he learns about Jail, about the fact that Staeg has investigative role (danger alert!), and that Shadow claims that bvoigt were lying. Staeg also said twice that he is feeling bad about Regfan, but it is just gut (ie he breadcrumbed something, but isn't going to claim on Day 2). Shinori knows that he isn't in danger of being lynched for the day. So he has an easy straightforward day/night - vote bvoigt, make some posts, kill Staeg at night (preventing future investigations), check someone else. Instead he cryptically hinted he has a role and check on Staeg, locked himself in a jail and gave Staeg yet another night check (who should use it on Shinori, since jailing doesn't prevent from being checked and it was obvious Shinori will claim on day 3). He couldn't be sure what would be Staeg claim on day 3, his checks, and whether he will be even in danger of being lynched (how many time town happily lynch claimed investigative roles?)

There is new point that you mentioned, that maybe scum!Shinori tried to get jailkeep on himself for a clean shot on Shadow. Well, if his faction were worried about Shadow, they would shoot him on Day 1. And if they did and he was protected (we've seen only 2 kills on night 1), then how locking jailkeep on Shinori would help with killing Shadow, who is protected anyway?

I just don't see consistency in this picture, puzzle pieces don't fit. But i really like that you are looking on a situation from different angles, so if we are indeed missing something, maybe yet another turn of your head(s) will show that missing link.

That is really visible on a general level of activity, i can't believe we have 18 players remaining, "easy" day 2 was more busy...

Feysal

, do you have more thoughts on the game, analysis, what are your reads other than Starbuck/Scumhunter? You were more or less active with chooses on you, and like 2-3 posts per day afterwards.

[Plums Yo Mamma]

okay, minimum is town.
I do not think Mina's reaction to pressure is "hi i am town and posting town shit so you can get off me now."
that sounds like townmina in her faith of being obvtown
although I don't like her meta talk, it sounds less proud than normal town mina
but i really like the comment about moi

fuck, mina is harder to read now
and i can only read CES when he's alone
but I suppose minimum can be town for now, fuck it

[Plums Yo Mamma]

got distracted looking through mockingjaye's posting, but strong scum reads in a game that you are behind in is strange, especially when there are not town reads anywhere. there's also a lot of apologizing and tiptoeing around, but I think that's just because mockingjaye is nice. 4nxi3ty isn't post him like I like for him to post, but the suggestion to greyscale a claimed PR is pretty fucking crazy town anxiety shit, I feel.

and this:

If one of my scumreads ended up in a 1v1, I would've had something to say about it. Your lack of comment on sapo during the trial by combat bothers me.

is a really good point

so I am not so happy lynching 4nxi3ty today

[Regfan]

nacho, i want scum reads with reasoning behind them from you. want your feysal read explained too. also don't think 4nxietys comment there is a town tell at all.

[Minimum]

Preponderance of evidence, Nacho.

More votes for Anxiety.

Have you stopped thinking we're scum yet, Magua?

[Benmage]

I know I've been promosing content... bare with me. Still want to look at vcs, and reread/iso as vcs are harder to pin in multi(but PoE should still be effective)

[Feysal]

Feysal is much more distracting to me because his last post is another fucking blurb on Starbuck/Scumhunter. How do you go four days without ever changing your suspect?! (Also Scumhunter strikes me as a townie fish in high waters so there's that too.)

That is easy. I have not changed my suspect because this one is not dead yet. I have seen nothing that would have made me reconsider my reasons from day one. I hate seeing people say Starbuck/Scumhunter is town without even explaining why, most recently Plumamma. Their alignment is about to be revealed, and with them taking strong stances I expect it will be town, but empty threats of killing everyone are not the way to convince me I would be wrong. Let them go over my case and disprove it if they can, or shut up.

Meanwhile, I'm thoroughly unimpressed by the Jaime claim. I saw a soft claim earlier today too, but did not care then either. There are false claims in this game, and some of them are bound to be major characters - I remember Cersei being a false claim in Storm of Swords, for instance. I also don't like the explanation how Scumhunter guesses having his sword hand cut off would have made Jaime vanilla. If that was his role, he should know that from his flavor. I think that when Starbuck was cornered day one she was forced to claim vanilla, but their actual false claim was not vanilla, and now we have Scumhunter claiming the name anyway and trying to make it work.

Feysal

, do you have more thoughts on the game, analysis, what are your reads other than Starbuck/Scumhunter? You were more or less active with chooses on you, and like 2-3 posts per day afterwards.

I think you mean one post per 2-3 days? Or maybe you were referring to day phases? I have been busy, and I've had little energy to spend on mafia. I have looked at some other players though, including mockingjaye, who I continue to believe to be town. I simply agree with many of her opinions, and find her stances understandable. I also looked at MoS, and after seeing how he consistently attacked Salamence and later Saporerint, I feel better about him. I think someone once asked me why Plumamma would be more town for the case on bvoigt if their faction was divided, and it is the same thing here. We have caught two Aegon goons, and their remaining members are more likely to know their team. They cannot all be unknown to each other.

[Jal]

Guys, sorry I have to replace out. I have an emergency situation I've been dealing with for awhile and I find I can't handle any of my games as I try dealing it. I've only read this page since my last post so I'll address a few things.

1. I believe that quote from Anxiety is towards me: It was an obvious choice between Edd (someone I called town) and Sapo. At the time everyone (except Benmage) was waiting for the claim to go down before hurting, and the hurting down during a time I wasn't around. There pretty much was nothing to say or comment about Sapo D3 that wasn't done before my first post (let's wait for claim!). Not much to say afterwards, either. Woohoo?

2. Also wanted to mention: I can't shake the feeling Plum/Nacho, especially in the making of the two lists a few pages back, is just throwing out bull-crap, especially by knowing he'll be revealed soon.

3. Lyanna probably made some long post to me. I have expressed nothing against you. I cooled down yesterday. Come back down with me.

There's a big part of me that believes Lyanna is scum. There is this over explanation in her writing. She's very wishy washy with her reads on people. I said I thought DCL was busing someone, and I thought most strongly (even at the time) it was Lyanna, especially with her post D2 about bothering to argue with scum. Somewhere along the line I axe'd the possibility of her being Stannis scum though. Don't remember why.

Feysal does a similar over-explanation, just without all the wishy washyness. Still say that town snd scum list D1 was pure bunk.

Who the hell knows what's going on with Mina.

Hey Feysal, I doubt there's going to be an explanation in the pm explaining why someone's a VT.

[Eddard Stark]

Pine replaces Jal. Welcome him!

Shinori, Tyene Sand, BBmolla and Zdenek have been prodded.

[BBmolla]

I'm here. Unsatisfied with everything.

[Lyanna Stark]

Benmage is town

Minimum is most likely not Aegon aligned

Feysal's early attack at Starbuck is meh...(I have to feel that way since I had the same concept as what she expressed.)

Feysal is most likely not Aegon aligned

Pandora is still town

Reddff: Voted Starbuck and chose Feysal in his first post. (Don't know what to make of that...more of a placemarker as I'm re-reading.)

By the old gods...why did we lynch Staeg?

BB's still town too.

Starbuck/Scumhunter is most likely town.

Post 252 makes me a little paranoid of Tyene along with has's commenton Post 264

WHY IS MAGUA LURKING???

Wait...earlier I said Benmage was town...this is multiball. Need to rethink him actually. I don't care how "perfect" his scum game is this is different. Actually looking at Benmage even early game he was trying to steer the choose away from redff as in Post 265. I literally don't know what to make of Benmage, but his bossy arrogance when I reaction voted him says to me he's likely town though so many things say to me that he's scum. Definitely don't want him making it to LyLo regardless.

Unlikely to be Aegon aligned based on Salamance Post 278: Feysal, Minimum, BBMolla

Shinori's probably town by way of Hyperion (Isn't that sad?) Shinori, please pick it up.

One issue I'm having right now is that Sapo kept reiterating their idea that the vote and choose vote should be the same. The only person who kept doing that was MoS. If the Aegon faction is split up, this might mean something as they kept insisting on their town read of bvoigt and then eventually bvoit decided they seemed town. But, Salamance's interactions with MoS doesn't make sense for partners, unless it was encouraging in weird sort of sense.

Minimum is probably town too.

Tyene is probably not Stannis aligned.

This is really just random crap and thoughts until page 18...was gonna try to go longer but *sleep*...pretty much ignore this as it's just here for my thoughts for now.

[Zdenek]

I don't mind waiting for Shinori to be NK'ed.
I would love to know why plumamma thinks Kortul is town.

Vote: MoS