A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Regfan]

Regfan, what scumreads of mine were you expecting me to extrapolate on? All of my top scumreads were eliminated recently...I did that analysis because I didn't know where to go and I needed to get a new perspective on the game. I'm not really sure what you expected from me.

Untrue. You had a scum-read on Kortul previously that you never retracted so you going the long way round of doing a 'points scoring' to justify voting him is bullshit. Not just that though but there's a bunch of players you have as strongish town reads inside your 'scum most likely inside of' piles and the fact that you haven't gone around stating, okay, x/y/z are probably town from play/other things making a/b/c significantly more likely scum and then looking into them shows no real indepth thought process from you other than collect points data, throw it up and pretend it's contribution. Not just that but 'voting alongside same wagon as scum' in a game of this size isn't exactly a 'scum-tell' but your points data attempts to construe it is and you've flat out avoided looking at certain people; Jal, Scumhunter/Starbuck, Mockingjaye/4nxiety and Plum to some degree other than slapping their names on your list. And considering that they're all discussed likely scum and more than likely lynches today not looking into them when doing 'content' really shows you're not even attempting to scumhunt in the slightest.

[Plums Yo Mamma]

school starts tomorrow and I do not have enough time to catch up in this game right now
if plum comes arund, i am sure that she will make some good posting; otherwise, don't expect good shit until tuesday

[Pandora]

If I said i was going to contribute lately that was a dirty lie I feel shit as shit
think everyone is overreacting to MoS's numbers though because they're the most anything he's said. omg a thing we can tear it appart and disagree with it etc

[Eddard Stark]

Ser Joseth Mallister was a member of House Mallister during the reign of Daeron II. He wore a winged helm.

Day 4, Votecount 8

4nx3ty (2) - Minimum, Regfan
Pine (2) - BBmolla, 4nxi3ty
BBmolla (1) - Benmage

Scumhunter (4) - Magua, Feysal, kortul, Lyanna Stark

Magua (1) - Scumhunter
Feysal (1) - Plums Yo Mamma
Shinori (1) - Pandora
Mastermind of Sin (1) - Zdenek
kortul (1) - Mastermind of Sin

Not Voting (3):

Tyene Sand, Shinori, Pine

With 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Deadline

: 6th October at 19:30am Ireland time. (GMT+1)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-10-06 14:30:47)

Prodding Feysal and Benmage

[Tierce]

Regfan: it's Scumhunter being Scumhunter. I'm not saying that my role PM says he's lying, I'm just saying I don't believe a word out of his mouth. Look at his play so far. Don't know, don't care, I think the slot is town and I really don't want to waste time on it, which means that the wagon on it is rather irritating because it's such a red herring (Lyanna, kortul, this means you).

I'm increasingly convinced MoS is scum. That numbers dance is pretty ridiculous when it comes to justifying his vote. It reads a lot like fake :effort: and fake rails for him to leave should he flip scum (he does love to do that, see GvE with scum-MoS). VCA isn't secret numerology, which is what he's trying to pass it off as. Still, would scum MoS 'test-drive' a plan like this in a game in which he was scum? In multiball, at that, where he could be scumhunting genuinely?
Then again, he does get caught as scum, so I guess I should stop second-guessing myself.

VOTE: Mastermind of Sin

Lyanna, I'd like some input on MoS from you, please.

[4nxi3ty]

I'm acutually leaning town on MoS for that VCA. When scum do vote count analysis it is usually to drive a lynch, "Oh these people are definitely scum based on this information". Compared that to MoS who votes someone no one else is voting and is like, "not sure who is scum yet I think kortul is a good place start"

@Magua:

what is your take on nacho's recent post?

Regfan, would like to see a S>W list from you.

[Regfan]

Right now I'm at about;

Town (S->W):

Pandora, Benmage, Lyanna, Tyene, Zdenek, Molla, Magua (Gap) Shinori, Minimum, Kortul, Feysal, Jal.

Scum (S->W):

4nxiety, MoS, Plum, Scumhunter

[Minimum]

Magua, still think Scumbuck is town. Aside from anxijay, Jal and MoS are scum reads. Now respond to the actual things I've been saying.

[Benmage]

prodded

[Pine]

Whoops, sorry. Hadn't bookmarked the thread. Catching up.

[kortul]

Tierce, but i don't see this slot as town. My suspicions are not that strong, but they exist. I reread the play of Starbuck again, and just don't see any towntells. She may be naive, maybe she were confused, but that isn't an alignment tell. I already told why i think interactions between Sala/Sapo, bvoigt and her are suspicious. I hoped to get a better read on the slot from Scumhunter play, but he does nothing. He had 2 game days without any pressure to do anything (reread, ISO, thoughts on events on those days), but all he did were promises and prod dodges. Today i decided to add a pressure to get any reaction, and nothing much changed. More promises. My read on the slot didn't change since day 1, because there is nothing to analyze. No real interactions, thoughts, reads. If this slot is town, at the moment Scumhunter is just dead weight occupying it.

If he continues being dead weight, he is likely to live through the nights; and if we ignore him, live through the days. And i don't want those who will remain with him in the endgame doubleguessing who he is, based on a day 1 events and nothing else. I want him to either start working (and become more readable), or replace, or be lynched before endgame if he continues to ignore the first two options.

[kortul]

@4nx,

can you tell your scum reads and strong town reads atm, along with the reasons for those reads? I remember having hard time reading you in the game we played since our styles are different, but sometimes you were readable from a logical point of view.

[Zdenek]

I don't mean having reads, but making lists. I'm thinking that there are players like regfan who are really transparent and give you updated reads regularly, and there are those who don't.

What's your point?

Also, I've been thinking about how that godhand happened, mainly because every time I think abut the end of day one I want to lynch benmage for defending scum and really wish that he was godhanded. Anyway, he was the most agressive pusher of plum, which might indicate that he's scum trying to avoid being flipped. Aside from that once w start getting flips from the people those wagons were on, they could be useful. At the moment, not so much I think.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Regfan, what scumreads of mine were you expecting me to extrapolate on? All of my top scumreads were eliminated recently...I did that analysis because I didn't know where to go and I needed to get a new perspective on the game. I'm not really sure what you expected from me.

Untrue. You had a scum-read on Kortul previously that you never retracted so you going the long way round of doing a 'points scoring' to justify voting him is bullshit. Not just that though but there's a bunch of players you have as strongish town reads inside your 'scum most likely inside of' piles and the fact that you haven't gone around stating, okay, x/y/z are probably town from play/other things making a/b/c significantly more likely scum and then looking into them shows no real indepth thought process from you other than collect points data, throw it up and pretend it's contribution. Not just that but 'voting alongside same wagon as scum' in a game of this size isn't exactly a 'scum-tell' but your points data attempts to construe it is and you've flat out avoided looking at certain people; Jal, Scumhunter/Starbuck, Mockingjaye/4nxiety and Plum to some degree other than slapping their names on your list. And considering that they're all discussed likely scum and more than likely lynches today not looking into them when doing 'content' really shows you're not even attempting to scumhunt in the slightest.

Kortul was *a* scumread, but not recently at the top of my list. In fact, he had kind of dropped off my radar completely in the last few days. I didn't create that post just to look for a reason to vote kortul, that doesn't make at all. I came into my analysis with a relatively clean slate, not knowing who was scum and not really having a good feel for the game. Then, when the analysis brought up kortul's name I remembered I'd had a scumread on him way back on Day 1. The fact that my earlier gut read correlated with the results of the analysis just further solidified my feelings that he's the best play for today.

Secondly, there's a difference between listing data and making solid conclusions from it. When I made my lists based on wagon states to figure out who might be scum, I purposefully listed every living player who fell in that category, so as not to accidentally eliminate any possibilities prematurely. Then I went and looked at those lists and cross-referenced them with my other analyses and my own gut reads and gave you a final list that had who I thought we should look at for scum. If I wasn't eliminating people from the first lists based on my "strongish townreads", how do you think I could have possibly ended up with a different final list that didn't have them on it? The only person on my top scumreads list that I posted that you could possibly claim I ever had a townread on was Tammy, who I keep going back and forth on (but if you read my analysis you'd realize why I'm second-guessing that read), and Shinori, who I didn't really have a townread on but was unwilling to lynch at that point due to being a PR.

All I'm seeing from you is lashing out at me because I think kortul is scum and you don't. So really, I welcome you to explain that again, because nothing you just said actually makes any sense if you were reading my posts and paying attention.

[Shinori]

Kortul what about the fact that I saw tierce doing nothing? I know she could be a scum passive role but chances are more likely to have an active role.

[Magua]

what is your take on nacho's recent post?

Nacho thinks that Scumhunter is town and Minimum is town.

Nacho's wrong.

Not giving too much worry about whether this is Nacho being wrong because he's blind, or Nacho being wrong because he's scum, because we'll find out at the end of the Day tomorrow. If Day 6 starts with a confirmed town Nacho, then I'll start paying attention to what he's saying. 'Till then, not so much.

Magua, still think Scumbuck is town. Aside from anxijay, Jal and MoS are scum reads. Now respond to the actual things I've been saying.

The "things you've said" are that you don't think I should have a scumread on you. I do. There's really not much else to respond with. I'm certainly not expecting to convince you you're scum, and you're not going to convince me with what is essentially "lol ur wrong lrn2play".

Also, I've been thinking about how that godhand happened, mainly because every time I think abut the end of day one I want to lynch benmage for defending scum and really wish that he was godhanded. Anyway, he was the most agressive pusher of plum, which might indicate that he's scum trying to avoid being flipped. Aside from that once w start getting flips from the people those wagons were on, they could be useful. At the moment, not so much I think.

The thing is, Benmage is a terrible Godhand target because even if he's confirmed town, he's trouble. Plum/Nacho is a good Godhand target because if they're confirmed town, scum'll have to kill them.

There is no way I would've gone for a Benmage godhanding.

Kortul what about the fact that I saw tierce doing nothing? I know she could be a scum passive role but chances are more likely to have an active role.

Need to watch those assumptions.

DCLXVI (Davos Seaworth,

Goon

and a member of the Stannis Faction) was Chosen Day 1, Died Night 1.
bvoigt (Jon Connington,

Goon

and a member of the Aegon Faction) was Lynched Day 2.
Saporerint (Varys, *Informed

Goon

and member of the Aegon Faction) lost the trial by combat on Day 3.

[Tyene Sand]

Regfan: it's Scumhunter being Scumhunter. I'm not saying that my role PM says he's lying, I'm just saying I don't believe a word out of his mouth. Look at his play so far. Don't know, don't care, I think the slot is town and I really don't want to waste time on it, which means that the wagon on it is rather irritating because it's such a red herring (Lyanna, kortul, this means you).

I'm increasingly convinced MoS is scum. That numbers dance is pretty ridiculous when it comes to justifying his vote. It reads a lot like fake :effort: and fake rails for him to leave should he flip scum (he does love to do that, see GvE with scum-MoS). VCA isn't secret numerology, which is what he's trying to pass it off as. Still, would scum MoS 'test-drive' a plan like this in a game in which he was scum? In multiball, at that, where he could be scumhunting genuinely?
Then again, he does get caught as scum, so I guess I should stop second-guessing myself.

VOTE: Mastermind of Sin

Lyanna, I'd like some input on MoS from you, please.

Didn't even notice the account fail. Sorry, mods.

Shinori, kortul was addressing me about Starbuck/Scumhunter, not talking about me.
(In addition, with Doctor Who Mafia now over, I need to reiterate that I read kortul as town and would like people with scumreads on him to compare his play with that game.)

Magua, you seem to have ignored the post in which I showed your reasoning on me boils down to nothing. In addition, you seem to be using the Goon number to assume that the majority (or a good share) of scum alive will have an active role/would have killed when I was tracked nowhere. I understand not taking tracker negatives as proof of alignment, but this doesn't seem to match the core of your reasoning. Are you suggesting I'm a goon who didn't act?

4nxi3ty: Town-MoS is very lazy. He gets better in later days, true, but it still seems a lot of effort to present in a game this size and then... not reach a really viable conclusion. It's a behavior uncharacteristic of town-MoS, but it makes sense from scum-MoS.

[Magua]

Magua, you seem to have ignored the post in which I showed your reasoning on me boils down to nothing. In addition, you seem to be using the Goon number to assume that the majority (or a good share) of scum alive will have an active role/would have killed when I was tracked nowhere. I understand not taking tracker negatives as proof of alignment, but this doesn't seem to match the core of your reasoning. Are you suggesting I'm a goon who didn't act?

My thinking about you being a goon who didn't act is muddled. I'm shelving it for the time being.

My comment at Shinori was that, given all three scumflips so far have been goons, assuming that the mafia are more likely to be PRs is a bad assumption.

[Mastermind of Sin]

4nxi3ty: Town-MoS is very lazy. He gets better in later days, true, but it still seems a lot of effort to present in a game this size and then... not reach a really viable conclusion. It's a behavior uncharacteristic of town-MoS, but it makes sense from scum-MoS.

You *do* realize that I have been try-harding as town lately, right? And that there's documented evidence of this?

[Feysal]

I'm only a page behind at the moment, but I have no time to read more or analyze tonight. Thus this post amounts to no more than a prod dodge.

[Lyanna Stark]

Regfan: it's Scumhunter being Scumhunter. I'm not saying that my role PM says he's lying, I'm just saying I don't believe a word out of his mouth. Look at his play so far. Don't know, don't care, I think the slot is town and I really don't want to waste time on it, which means that the wagon on it is rather irritating because it's such a red herring (Lyanna, kortul, this means you).

I'm increasingly convinced MoS is scum. That numbers dance is pretty ridiculous when it comes to justifying his vote. It reads a lot like fake :effort: and fake rails for him to leave should he flip scum (he does love to do that, see GvE with scum-MoS). VCA isn't secret numerology, which is what he's trying to pass it off as. Still, would scum MoS 'test-drive' a plan like this in a game in which he was scum? In multiball, at that, where he could be scumhunting genuinely?
Then again, he does get caught as scum, so I guess I should stop second-guessing myself.

VOTE: Mastermind of Sin

Lyanna, I'd like some input on MoS from you, please.

I'm mulling this over. I'm tired and will get back to this game and question later, probably Wednesday.

[Eddard Stark]

Prodding BBmolla

[BBmolla]

I'm just gonna make a post every time I look at this thread.

Not lynching Scumhunter before lynching some others.

[4nxi3ty]

@4nx,

can you tell your scum reads and strong town reads atm, along with the reasons for those reads? I remember having hard time reading you in the game we played since our styles are different, but sometimes you were readable from a logical point of view.

Feysal is a strong townread for interactions with flipped scum, same thing with Tyene.
I believe shinori is town due to his claim.
Pandora calling me scummy for wanting to "murder" shinori and then building a case on shinori bugged me a bit, However, overall I liked their tone throughout their posts.
leaning town on Zdenek. He generally seems to looking for scum rather than a mislynch.
I liked Magua's recent responses.

Originally thought Regfan was town, cause his vote looked like he was still paranoid from the last game we played where I fooled him as scum.
Recently, His continuing to call me his top scumread yet not really questioning the motive in my posts is giving me scumvibes. I suppose I could say the same thing about CES yet I get the vibe that he genuinely believes I am scum.

Confident Plums Yo Mamma is going to flip scum and is just wifoming(e.g. He put feysal on both sides of that vs. list and other stuff hes posted today)

4nxi3ty: Town-MoS is very lazy. He gets better in later days, true, but it still seems a lot of effort to present in a game this size and then... not reach a really viable conclusion. It's a behavior uncharacteristic of town-MoS, but it makes sense from scum-MoS.

I get the logic, but I am not really seeing it. Even if you are correct about it being uncharacteristic, I would still prefer to lynch jal or scumhunter.

[Magua]

I'm just gonna make a post every time I look at this thread.

Not lynching Scumhunter before lynching some others.

With four days remaining, you need to start pushing if you actually want someone besides Scumhunter lynched.