A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Tyene Sand]

Magua, you seem to have ignored the post in which I showed your reasoning on me boils down to nothing. In addition, you seem to be using the Goon number to assume that the majority (or a good share) of scum alive will have an active role/would have killed when I was tracked nowhere. I understand not taking tracker negatives as proof of alignment, but this doesn't seem to match the core of your reasoning. Are you suggesting I'm a goon who didn't act?

My thinking about you being a goon who didn't act is muddled. I'm shelving it for the time being.

My comment at Shinori was that, given all three scumflips so far have been goons, assuming that the mafia are more likely to be PRs is a bad assumption.

Fair enough, but assuming that the remaining scumbags are likely to have a decent amount of PRs is in line with the previous ASOIAF games.

4nxi3ty: Town-MoS is very lazy. He gets better in later days, true, but it still seems a lot of effort to present in a game this size and then... not reach a really viable conclusion. It's a behavior uncharacteristic of town-MoS, but it makes sense from scum-MoS.

You *do* realize that I have been try-harding as town lately, right? And that there's documented evidence of this?

By all means, go on. Show me where I'm wrong--if nothing else, your words show that I'm not imagining this kind of behavior in your not-recent meta, so I'd like to see this evidence of you making an effort as town recently.

[Eddard Stark]

"Let me give you some counsel, bastard. Never forget what you are, for surely the world will not. Make it your strength. Then it can never be your weakness. Armor yourself in it, and it will never be used to hurt you." – Tyrion Lannister to Jon Snow

Day 4, Votecount 9

4nx3ty (2) - Minimum, Regfan
Pine (2) - BBmolla, 4nxi3ty
BBmolla (1) - Benmage

Scumhunter (4) - Magua, Feysal, kortul, Lyanna Stark

Magua (1) - Scumhunter
Feysal (1) - Plums Yo Mamma
Shinori (1) - Pandora
Mastermind of Sin (2) - Zdenek, Tyene Sand
kortul (1) - Mastermind of Sin

Not Voting (2):

Shinori, Pine

With 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Deadline

: 6th October at 19:30am Ireland time. (GMT+1)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-10-06 14:30:47)

Prodding Scumhunter

[Mastermind of Sin]

By all means, go on. Show me where I'm wrong--if nothing else, your words show that I'm not imagining this kind of behavior in your not-recent meta, so I'd like to see this evidence of you making an effort as town recently.

You can check out Always On (where the mod just gave me an award for best use of mechanic) or The Reckoning II (where I had to pretty much single-handedly save the game after Fate and a bunch of quick-lynching dumbasses nearly handed scum a win), and there's another ongoing game that I'm dead in where I was also fairly proactive as town. I've been somewhat turning a corner on my play lately (got bored of being bored, I guess you could say), just depends on how much people annoy me or piss me off. That said, I can't say with 100% certainty that this change wouldn't also apply to my scum game, as I haven't had any scum games recently to compare to.

In this game in particular, however, I mostly just needed to do something to get my head back in the game because the last few game days have not really been productive for me to get a grip on things, since bvoigt was an obvious lynch Day 2 and you guys killed my main suspect, Sala/Sapo, before I even had a chance to check out the game thread Day 3. Hasn't really helped me get a feel for who else might be scum, so I needed to go back and look at things fresh with as little pre-existing prejudice as possible. Hence my analysis posts (duh!). I'm planning to take a look at a few other things in this game eventually, but that becomes less and less likely to happen the more I have to spend my only free game-posting time responding to retarded people in this game saying I put no effort into my analysis.

[Plums Yo Mamma]

More reasons why the scumhunter lynch is stupid!

Scumhunter - Fuck Scumhunter. Agree with Regfan that Scumhunter-town would be contributing more, so the more lurkalicious he is the more likely he is to be scum.

policy lynch.
he's sheeping Regfan, but Regfan isn't even voting scumhunter in the first place. Also, I am going to do a quick meta check, so beep (scumhunter scum game where he was lazy, but not blatantly lazy. he at least had some sort of scumread, and also put actual effort into defending himself with meta and the like, and replaced out when he didn't have enough time) boop (not lazy scumhunter town) beep (town lazy-ish, had a hydra partner though) and actually can't find a large game that he wasn't very lazy in those so perhaps you have a point.

feysal's vote is stupid.

kortul was a pressure vote trying to develop reads, then sort of develops into a policy lynch.

Dude, cmon Broskis. I'm Jaime freaking Lannister. I boned my own sister. My dad shits gold. No way I'm not all about Casterly Rock and protecting King Tommen to rule the kingdom 4ever!! Man. I'm soooooooooooooo lazyyyyyyyyyy. Freaking A man.

So you've decided to be dead fucking weight, and just go on about your laziness. I don't buy into the crap assumption that people are too lazy to be scum and I happen to know that stick your head in the sand and hope things go away is your scum play.

VOTE: scumhunter

policy vote.


so yeah, biggest thing is laziest = scum, but the not giving a shit laziness here is far less like his scummeta than it is elsewhere. So I am still not happy with this lynch.

[Plums Yo Mamma]

Confident Plums Yo Mamma is going to flip scum and is just wifoming(e.g. He put feysal on both sides of that vs. list and other stuff hes posted today)

don't see 4nxi3ty saying this as scum ever
feel free to disagree

[Plums Yo Mamma]

Another day. We've had other fish to fry for a couple days, but I have not forgotten about this.

VOTE: Scumhunter

This is entirely about Starbuck, and I can say little more about Scumhunter than that he has done nothing to reverse my strong scum read on his predecessor. I've tried to explain it before, with rather disappointing results. I will try one more time to show why her self choice was not any kind of town tell.

According to Starbuck, she felt like she would be lynchbait, but wanted to be useful. Being vanilla town she had no reason not to volunteer to be chosen. She believed it would be best to control where the kill landed rather than trying to choose scum in the first place, and to this end she wanted to be chosen to carry out the kill based on what the town wanted.

That is the story Starbuck would have us believe, and far too many accepted her explanation. There are however some glaring gaps in her account. Let me point them out.

Why did Starbuck feel like lynchbait?

The earliest post where she indicated wanting to choose town was #42, only one hour into the game, when she had four votes on her. I cannot believe anyone would feel so dejected so early and for so little.

Why does Starbuck not choose herself to begin with?

She starts by talking about wanting to choose town, and if she meant to have herself chosen all along, why did she only choose herself in response to criticism?

Why was Starbuck worried about where the kill landed?

This seems like something that scum would be much more concerned about than town. She never could explain her stance when confronted about it, she was simply insistent and tried to show how others had supposedly agreed.

Why did Starbuck speak both in favor and against directing the kill?

She said that she would follow the wishes of the majority when she claimed, but in post #32 she had supported the opposite view. Oops.

I think what mockingjaye said in her first content post about Starbuck's position evolving was right on the money. Starbuck did not start by choosing herself and she first spoke against directing the kill, which makes it clear to me that her eventual self choice and promise to listen to town wishes were only in response to increasing pressure. It comes off as defensive rather than genuine desire to help through self sacrifice. In her attempt to show how others had similar thoughts and particularly in her exchange with Dredd her defensive attitude is obvious. Other than that, all she ever gave was empty promises to catch up and contribute.

I remember how redFF also attacked her which makes Starbuck unlikely to be Stannis aligned, and bvoigt defending her may not mean anything if BBmolla is right about Aegon forces being divided. But Starbuck/Scumhunter could easily be a stranded Aegon goon. She may actually have thought that being chosen would not be that bad, she could carry out an extra kill for her team and if she was isolated they would never need to worry about contacting her.

I have not looked closely at mockingjaye and don't see what the links to bvoigt and Saporerint are supposed to be, but I have thought her play was in line with what I remember from her as town, and I have agreed with many of her thoughts, like the one about Starbuck above.

meanwhile...
Feysal's only strong read is Starbuck from page fucking 3
page 3
seriously, since when does this not scream "scum scum scum"?

[Plums Yo Mamma]

mossy, stop defending yourself
we know you are town
just vote Feysal

[BBmolla]

Piney poo lurked till the of the day
Wagons on town were deemed okay
I keep being prodded in this terrible state
Lynching a townie is something I hate

[Benmage]

"Let me give you some counsel, bastard. Never forget what you are, for surely the world will not. Make it your strength. Then it can never be your weakness. Armor yourself in it, and it will never be used to hurt you." – Tyrion Lannister to Jon Snow

<------ is a fan

[Plums Yo Mamma]

Piney poo lurked till the of the day
Wagons on town were deemed okay
I keep being prodded in this terrible state
Lynching a townie is something I hate

feysalllll

[BBmolla]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Feysal

[Plums Yo Mamma]

Currently on page 6, will post again after catching up on the rest

I have two pages to go, but I'm just not going to finish tonight, too tired to read any more. I have picked up a bunch of reads along the way, others I have no read on yet, but both will have to wait.

Damn it. For every page I read, another seems to pop up, and this wall just keeps growing when I never have an opportunity to post fully caught up. I've had enough for one night, this goes up now, even though I'm still behind.

[quote="Feysal"Six new pages since I last checked the thread, and no time to catch up immediately. I suppose I should be thankful it is not more. I will be reading tomorrow.[/quote]

Currently at page 24, will finish catching up later.

Preview edit: the last page is 40 now? Two new pages just while I was writing this. I'll deal with that later.

Caught up. There are things I need to start doing,

I took a day off to catch up in another game I had been neglecting, and again I find myself pages behind. I can't catch up properly before the deadline, so I have only skimmed enough to know the current situation, who has claimed and what. It looks like all that needs to be done today is to make up my mind about bvoigt and StefanB.

I've received my prod and read about half of the new pages, though I still have more to go.

Okay, enough of this. I have caught up, but since we're lynching bvoigt anyway, there is little reason to post updated reads today

Once more I'm late to the proceedings, and this time I seem to have entirely missed a trial by combat.

I see Staeg just got hammered. Under the circumstances, I will finish reading during the night phase, and post what I have now.

Another day. We've had other fish to fry for a couple days, but I have not forgotten about this.

I'm only a page behind at the moment, but I have no time to read more or analyze tonight. Thus this post amounts to no more than a prod dodge.

fuck you

[Tyene Sand]

You were in GvE, Nacho. You know activity and prod dodges aren't remotely indicative of alignment when it comes to Feysal. It's frustrating, yes. Very much so, and I wish he'd keep to smaller games when he clearly doesn't have the free time to be participative. But it doesn't mean anything and I seriously distrust the way you seem to be pushing it as relevant.

[Zdenek]

Feysal is a strong townread for interactions with flipped scum

What is your opinion of:

I think the multi-scum slip is enough to go off at this stage, see how feysal continues to react.

I think he's voting Feysal and gassing up the escape pod.

I still think MoS is scum. Of the other wagons, I'd be most inclined to switch to Feysal, maybe scumhunter, I would not vote anxiety anymore.

[Pandora]

I was in GvE too and I don't remember Feysal saying this much nothing.
Or prod dodging instead of posting.
Seems alot more like when I read Chrono Trigger and he was a useless spawn.

##Vote: Feysal

Anx: I know, I reread and changed my mind. Sorry we fought yo.

[Mastermind of Sin]

What Pandora said. In GvE (and other games) I remember Feysal being a lot more active. But his interactions with the flipped scum so far lead me to believe he's probably town, so I still think he's a bad lynch.

[Zdenek]

What Pandora said. In GvE (and other games) I remember Feysal being a lot more active. But his interactions with the flipped scum so far lead me to believe he's probably town, so I still think he's a bad lynch.

Which interactions make you think that he's not Stannis aligned?

[Feysal]

With four days remaining, you need to start pushing if you actually want someone besides Scumhunter lynched.

I was actually not even aware we were this close to deadline, thanks for the heads up. However my vote is already on the largest and only wagon, on the player I have believed to be scum since the start of the game, so I don't exactly feel like pushing other wagons today. Not that there even are any, just one or two votes on a bunch of people. We really need to start consolidating our votes if we want a lynch today at all. Or flip anyway, due to greyscale.

I had a look at everyone else with votes on them to see who else I could support if it came to it. I have strong town reads on Regfan and Minimum both, but I also have a fair town read on Mockingjaye, now 4nxi3ty, who they are voting. I looked at her earlier today and found myself agreeing with her far too often to be comfortable lynching 4nxi3ty. I would do it to secure a lynch if I had to, but I would not like it.

Pine replaced Jal, and while I've never had a strong read on Jal one way or the other, the way he replaced out looked very town to me. He commented on several players on his way out, which would be an unnecessary burden for his replacement if he were scum, and I would not expect scum to even care enough to state their final thoughts when replacing out due to emergency.

MoS is being voted by Zdenek and Tierce. Here my reads are not strong, but I'm leaning town on them. As for MoS, the way he attacked Salamence/Saporerint makes him considerably less likely to be Aegon aligned, but other than that I have no read on him. I did somewhat like the display of effort with the number analysis, but I rather doubt its usefulness. I would be least reluctant to vote him, but that is not saying much.

The rest of the votes are all over the place, and many of their targets are questionable to say the least. I continue to have faith in BBmolla, and have no idea what the hell Benmage thinks he's doing voting him. Magua remains an unknown quantity, but I'm not about to rush to vote him with only my strongest suspect for company. I think kortul actually had a fair point about Shinori, and how his actions don't have a scum motivation - of course they don't make sense as any alignment, but if he had scum partners, they would presumably have advised Shinori to act differently. Finally there is kortul, and I have never understood what that case is about. He has seemed reasonable though, and I have not forgotten Tierce defending him on meta.

Then there is Plumamma. What the hell? Recently you keep calling my Starbuck vote stupid, but have you ever even commented on my case? I also remember hearing how meta should not be a shield, but a sledgehammer, or words to that effect. I don't give a damn how lazy Scumhunter is as town, my case is not about him anyway. I looked up meta on Starbuck too earlier in the game, and what I saw from her as town had nothing in common with her woe is me attitude in this game. And you talk as if no one ever caught scum on page three. Neither Starbuck or Scumhunter has ever done anything to make me reverse that read.

GOD DAMMIT EDDARD STARK KEEPS REMINDING ME ABOUT FAMILY DUTY HONOR AND PRODS AND SHIT

Was anyone else surprised by the supposed Jaime Lannister using the Tully words? When I was first prodded, Ned used a phrase relevant to my character in the prod message, so this makes me wonder.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Vote: Scumhunter

[Mastermind of Sin]

What Pandora said. In GvE (and other games) I remember Feysal being a lot more active. But his interactions with the flipped scum so far lead me to believe he's probably town, so I still think he's a bad lynch.

Which interactions make you think that he's not Stannis aligned?

DCLXVI staying on the Feysal Choose wagon instead of the equally viable Greenknight wagon...also I find it unlikely that we had 4 competing wagons on scum D1...Sapo/bvoigt for votes and DCLXVI/Feysal for chooses...

[Plums Yo Mamma]

This is Plum. I'm here to say we're lynching Feysal. Greyscaling, whatever. Mkay?

Thought number one: Re kortul, sometimes members of the same scumteam are run up in competing wagons. This can certainly confuse Townies. I was once on a scumteam where the three major wagons Day 3 were on three members of a four-player scumteam.

I don't buy Feysal being completely tunnelvisioned laser-focused Town.

Magua has not yet impressed me and I can't even remember whom he replaced.

Super not-interested in lynching MoS today.

I'm acutually leaning town on MoS for that VCA. When scum do vote count analysis it is usually to drive a lynch, "Oh these people are definitely scum based on this information". Compared that to MoS who votes someone no one else is voting and is like, "not sure who is scum yet I think kortul is a good place start"

You are surprisingly good people. Sir I am not sure we've met before but it's a pleasure.

Not completely convinced that Kortul is Town but will shelve it for a bit while we deal with Feysal. Mostly this feels pretty mediocre:

Tierce, but i don't see this slot as town. My suspicions are not that strong, but they exist. I reread the play of Starbuck again, and just don't see any towntells. She may be naive, maybe she were confused, but that isn't an alignment tell. I already told why i think interactions between Sala/Sapo, bvoigt and her are suspicious.

Followed by blah blah blah justifying a policy lynch regarding Scumhunter's behavior. His strongest scumread boils down to "Starbuck never dropped any Towntells in

my

book and [mediocre confirmation bias 'interactions'/relationship with bvoigt and Sala/Saporient]. But if Tyene has confidence in a meta read I'll give it my attention tomorrow or something, and catch Nacho on actual AIM before then too.

---

So what has Feysal done? Well, Day 3 he did the following:

1. Weak attack on Staeg, weasely and hedgey.

2. Weak attack on Shinori, weasely and hedgey and weirdly dependent on Staeg flipping scum. He completely drops this Day 4 for a while until he belatedly says something like 'well his actions don't make any sense but his scumbuddies wouldn't let him act like this probably'.

Seriously. He funnels all of his energy into ignoring the lot of this and repushing his Starbuck case and prod-dodging. Feysal, I am not interested in your Starbuck case or attacking it, and neither is my other head. Frankly. The fact that you're still pushing this case as-is and daring anyone to make points against it if they want to have any say regarding you and your scumhunting is stupid. We've gone past the point that Starbuck is in this game to make argument about Starbuck-specific things. We've gone way way past the point that anyone arguing about a case specifically on Starbuck's actions is useful or coherent. Note that I'm not saying your case isn't lucid; I'm sure in itself it is perfectly understandable.

But it's nice and easy to make a case that is days old and have that be your contribution, and challenge everyone who thinks you're being lurky and disingenuous on that. It's nice and easy to make a case and that is damn well why cases are scummy. It's nice to make a dramatic front about "That is the story Starbuck would have us believe, and far too many accepted her explanation".

But that doesn't make you more of a scumhunter or less of a posturer

.

Feysal: There is another wagon and it's you.

GOD DAMMIT EDDARD STARK KEEPS REMINDING ME ABOUT FAMILY DUTY HONOR AND PRODS AND SHIT

Was anyone else surprised by the supposed Jaime Lannister using the Tully words? When I was first prodded, Ned used a phrase relevant to my character in the prod message, so this makes me wonder.

This is just frakking comical. Yup, Scumhunter is totally Edmure Tully and sad because he can't haz sexy Roslin :'(

MoS, please be a dear and get with the Feysal lynch. DCLXVI bussing in that situation would not at all be out of the question. Four competing wagons on scum Day 1 in a multiball if you also count the three that were on Town who claimed out is also perfectly plausible.

This feels like a bad post and like I should feel bad, but hell.

[Plums Yo Mamma]

Vote: Scumhunter

You were in GvE, Nacho. You know activity and prod dodges aren't remotely indicative of alignment when it comes to Feysal. It's frustrating, yes. Very much so, and I wish he'd keep to smaller games when he clearly doesn't have the free time to be participative. But it doesn't mean anything and I seriously distrust the way you seem to be pushing it as relevant.

Yes I was, and for some reason we have two very, very different memories of Feysal prod dodging. I seem to remember him pushing a BBMolla wagon like hell for a while, I remember he was convinced Typo Incarnate was scum for a while, he also had a lot to do with defending the shit out of me in MyLo because I lurked so fucking much.

Here, he's been prod dodging, but his reads haven't been changing at all as I'd expect town-Feysal's to, and he hasn't been frustrated on days when there wasn't much chance of lynching this scumread that has been so strong he's been pushing it from Page 3.

Then there is Plumamma. What the hell? Recently you keep calling my Starbuck vote stupid, but have you ever even commented on my case? I also remember hearing how meta should not be a shield, but a sledgehammer, or words to that effect. I don't give a damn how lazy Scumhunter is as town, my case is not about him anyway. I looked up meta on Starbuck too earlier in the game, and what I saw from her as town had nothing in common with her woe is me attitude in this game. And you talk as if no one ever caught scum on page three. Neither Starbuck or Scumhunter has ever done anything to make me reverse that read.

I have called your case stupid, yes. You're essentially saying that Starbuck got an isolated Aegon goon PM, and decided to get herself chosen so she could shoot someone town? The "woe is me" attitude you refer to is a bit off-base; she never says "I'm a liability, choose me", she says "I'm a VT, choose me".
And sure, people have definitely caught scum and page 3. But do they update their case when it is page 102? Usually, yes.

[Plums Yo Mamma]

oh hey, plum's back.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Still not really feeling it, but I'm interested to see what Feysal has to say in response.

[Lyanna Stark]

Dude, cmon Broskis. I'm Jaime freaking Lannister. I boned my own sister. My dad shits gold. No way I'm not all about Casterly Rock and protecting King Tommen to rule the kingdom 4ever!! Man. I'm soooooooooooooo lazyyyyyyyyyy. Freaking A man.

So you've decided to be dead fucking weight, and just go on about your laziness. I don't buy into the crap assumption that people are too lazy to be scum and I happen to know that stick your head in the sand and hope things go away is your scum play.

VOTE: scumhunter

policy vote.

Not just a policy vote. He has a decent enough chance at flipping scum, and is someone I wouldn't care less if didn't and moreover don't want anywhere near LyLo. He's contributed absolutely nothing besides calling MoI a scumlord and saying Regfan's probably scum for LOLsuspecting him. I just finished a game where he contributed extremely little as scum and pulled this lazy crap. He doesn't even have to read the entire thread. Regfan and I have suggested for him a place to start that didn't entail reading a 100 page game and he still refuses cuz lollazy. He could absolutely pull this off as scum. And if town, he's not going to be nightkilled, so if this game goes to LyLo, he'll likely lose it for us anyway. Totally not opposed to his lynch.

------

Tierce - I'll answer your question tomorrow.

------

Not sure what Feysal is talking about. Maybe he prods us differently, but when I got prodded it was just a generic prod.