A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Feysal]

Stop getting in the way of my pretty VC work, scum.

Why should I? It's not like I need your permission to post. Besides, you seem to get in your own way just fine without any help from me.

23 posts left.

[Tyene Sand]

Now you're being mean.

VOTE: BBmolla

[Regfan]

Mulled this game over in my head on the way home today (And finally home so should be able to get back to full activity tonight in 4-5 hours) and I don't think Molla fits as scum at all. Him lying about getting the message during the day to avoid being night-killed makes sense regardless of his alignment however the way that he came out and stated as much is genuine. Very genuine. All in all his role and play meta-wise point highly towards him being town.

Tierce, I'll ask you this: Do you think Stannis-Scum would be told that Aegon-Scum is split up? I don't. That removes him being Stannis-Scum. Do you think as Aegon-Scum he'd come out and state the make up of his faction? I don't. So overall just from that alone he's town.

Shinori, you should out your investigation. More information now is super needed.

[BBmolla]

Now you're being mean.

VOTE: BBmolla

Is this for reals

[Eddard Stark]

Day 5, Votecount 3

Tyene Sand (2) - Zdenek, AurorusVox

Thor665 (3) - Minimum, BBmolla, Plums Yo Mamma

Timeater (1) - Magua
Zdenek (1) - 4nx3ty
BBmolla (1) - Tyene Sand

Not Voting (7):

kortul, Shinori, Regfan, Feysal, Pandora, Timeater, Thor665

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

Deadline

: 25th October at 19:30pm Ireland time. (GMT+1)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-10-25 14:30:02)

[AurorusVox]

BB, join us on the glorious Tyene wagon~

[Tyene Sand]

Regfan--you're probably right. I didn't really think it over much, as I intend to go over the votecounts and the rest of the game throughout the weekend. That was a cursory look at the VCs, and by then I was incredibly frustrated with my connection repeatedly timing out when I tried to post so many tags.

AV, you haven't read the game, have you? Because I am

blatantly

not part of either scumteam. My interactions with DCLXVI and Feysal show very well that I am not connected to either of them, and my interactions with bvoigt and Saporerint do exactly the same for the Aegon team. So stop being an idiot and actually read the game, as all you've apparently done so far is sheep without looking stuff up for yourself.

UNVOTE: BBmolla

You shouldn't be voting Thor, BB/Minimum/PlumNacho. Go reread Jal on D1, look at his reaction to people defending him. That is town paranoia; the scum reaction would be relief that someone is defending him even if they aren't part of his team.

[AurorusVox]

So who SHOULD I be voting? Give me a good reason to sheep you.

[AurorusVox]

And I will read over the RVS at some point. Doubt I'll get through all 100 pages though~

[Tyene Sand]

Wish I could. If I had a good vote I'd be voting them, I've been without scumreads for a while now.

Zdenek - I think it was Minimum who described the difference in Zdenek's performance between this game and his scum ones. Yes, it's notable. He has absolutely batshit theories, but I've been in his place, namely in Weather Mafia II.

AurorusVox - You're still the one person I would probably default-vote to.

Minimum - I can't read CES worth a dime. I've been ignoring this slot for far too long and I want to check their interactions with known scum.

BBmolla - Probably cleared via role.

Plums Yo Mamma - They are going to flip alignment Today.

Magua - Another one I haven't really read yet. This slot needs a lot more activity.

4nxi3ty -I had a townread on mockingjaye. 4nxi3ty, while we are at it, the thing is... I

did not

RP in either Abarat (where I was scum and didn't know the flavor) or in hiplop's Mini Normal. So my question is how do you gather that I enjoy making flavorful posts and that this is a townish/null-at-most trait from me?

kortul - Working pretty closely to his Doctor Who town meta, I need to check interactions.

Shinori - Probably cleared via role.

Regfan - Don't make me read Regfan. ._. It's the "playing with players I like" effect, I'm not cold enough to analyze him critically. It's one of the things I need to do, but so far he seems in the clear.

Feysal - lol. Hey Feysal, who are you a Neighborizer to, little Freak?

Pandora - I still very much like the towntell Regfan applied to them. Mind you, Regfan, now that Abarat is over; Quilford isn't exactly incapable as scum. But yes, he doesn't like playing as that alignment and the way they are interacting shows dynamic thought. At this stage, I need to see if they fit either scumteam, though.

Timeater - Yeah this ain't Stannis. He could be a regular Goon trying to get in a nightkill for his team via the Choose mechanic, but mind you, this is incredibly dangerous for an uninformed Aegon: because shooting someone may mean they hit one of their (unkn)own, if they really are divided.

Thor665 - Jal wasn't scum, Thor isn't scum.

[Tyene Sand]

So yes. Do you want to sheep me onto yourself? Because that's where I'm leaning right now. I need to reread the game but ffff this is annoying. The scumteams are being, well,

scum

.

Stark

Start cross-killing already, ye jerks.

[Minimum]

You're giving both Jal and mockingjaye too much credit for being vaguely genuine when they both deliberately narrowed their focus in a multiball situation.

[4nxi3ty]

4nxi3ty -I had a townread on mockingjaye. 4nxi3ty, while we are at it, the thing is... I did not RP in either Abarat (where I was scum and didn't know the flavor) or in hiplop's Mini Normal. So my question is how do you gather that I enjoy making flavorful posts and that this is a townish/null-at- most trait from me?

Even when you're not rping you still often write non-generic phrases, thats what I meant by flavorful phrases. The point isn't that using non-generic phrases is an alignment tell, pretty sure you would do that as either alignment; the point is in a setup with a traitor, using the term 'traitorous' would be a scumtell for some people. I don't think it is in your case.

pretty sure zdenek is scum from how he switches to no longer wanting my lynch after I call him 'leaning town'.

[AurorusVox]

Vote: Zdenek

Timmy where you at?

[Minimum]

AV, if you want to just confess, that's fine too.

[AurorusVox]

I CONFESS
I have not read anything beyond where I replaced in.

[Regfan]

Wanted this to be much more complete but looks like going to have to mull on some things and re-read a few more people tomorrow.

- Not sure how I got 4nxiety as non-stannis earlier, somehow mixed up replacements in my head, Timeater isn't Stannis for Feysals constant pushing on the slot, no 4nxiety. Still find Timeaters play yesterday on the later end including his back-and-forths with Tammy town. Magua, explain to me how you don't and I want a summary of your updated reads.

- Zdenek isn't scum. No way, no how. Minimum/Tierce whoever it was pointed it out. His scum and town meta and games are significantly different, as town he gets caught up in tunnels, paranoia and stupid theories, he's been doing it this whole game with Tierce, he did it with Tammy in G v E. It's how he operates as town; hopefully he'll realize he's wrong on Tierce soon but regardless he's not for lynching ever.

- Mollas town via role and not fitting with either alignment and not for lynching ever as well.

- Tierce isn't scum of any kind, Sapors interactions with her and her pointing out towards Sapors slip all come across as her genuinely scumhunting, it's very town which makes her non-aegon. Her push on DCL and DCLS reaction and response towards her for it also is non-Stannis making her town. And Zdenek, I know you'll go over the argument of she started a choose wagon on DCL and choosing someone is what scum want instead of lynch ect. ect. but her reasoning for liking her vote vote makes her moves very logical and something that makes a super amount of sense. Not just that but read her RedFF scum-read and her attempt to get me to read into the slot on D1. She's not scum. She needs to help get some stronger stances on players, but not scum.

- Shinori needs to out his result. I have very minor things interaction wise that rule him out of both factions, wouldn't bet the game on them being right, do think his claim makes more sense as town, think the way he outted it was dumb but genuine and his posts of 'do you think scum have x/y/z' is a town-tell. He needs to start being active but he's likely town.

- Thor/Jal slot isn't Stannis scum for the spoilered, plus for DCLs vote on Jal and his 'jumping on big wagons' comment, can't find where he wasn't Aegon scum but it's in a sticky notes or notepad somewhere, will hunt for it in the morning but not happy with his lynch now;

Spoiler:

@DCL: Unfortunately, you're the Plain Jayne non-PR slot people were hoping for.

But I also happen to be town, the goal of this game isn't to lynch all the vt's, its to lynch all the scum.

@DCL

: I get it. I've been there. What's your end of day reads though?

- PlumNacho isn't Aegon, traitor flip of Feysal and not actual killing scum doesn't point them against being Stannis. Will find out later.

- Minimum isn't Aegon. Might be Stannis. Not leaning that way heavily right now though. Want more Mina posting.

- Kortuls scumhunting and posts are still very genuine; want to look at him interaction wise with the flipped scum but think town still.

- Pandora/Magua need a big re-analysis. Was doing it but then got caught up with the cricket, will ponder on what I read tonight and do the rest tomorrow.

So all up 4nxiety/AV are preferable lynches. Want to re-look and finish with a few others thought. Hopefully I'll break this game soon.

[kortul]

I came to conclusion, that if Specific Neighborizer role allows to neigborize only Stannis members (otherwise where are his neighbours??), initially Feysal had no knowledge of his teammates, or after the first night he would know the whole team. The quote below also heavily hints that:

Everything we say will influence the choice made by whoever we eventually send, and right or wrong,

what we say will be used to determine where our own loyalties lie.

I agree with Zdenek here, the bolded part has no logical connection to the previous statements, and is an obvious message to those who are looking for traitors, especially since this is his first post.

The question is, was Tierce post a response, or a coincidence? It does sounds like an answer:

What

is

suspect about this multiball thing (by all means, pappums--go read a few Feysal posts elsewhere) is the offhanded way Feysal addressed it, as anyone who has read or played with him will realize. Feysal has a tendency to wax prose over every single point that is not an established fact, and here there was an 'assumption' that he simply took and ran with without developing it. It feels awkward, out of place--

as if it is already fact for him because he knows his scumteam is too small to be alone.

And if, by chance, he is not a

traitorous servant

of the enemy, this is most certainly a man I trust with killing that bastard on the Wall.

I bolded two parts, not one, since "to be alone" describes Traitor position exactly (ie adds a second meaning to the otherwise normal phrase), and the second part makes sure that anybody with Traitor role will catch it, and reread the post.

So, if Tierce is Stannis, it means that faction knew they have traitor, but had no idea who he is, and while she caught the call from Feysal, she wasn't sure and left a message that is clear only for traitor (not necessarily Feysal).

And Feysal indeed used "subvert" addressing Tierce in his very next post, and the question is - were there any unnatural changes in the Tierce interactions afterwards?

Spoiler: Let's see

At that moment (page 10) leading vote wagon was on Minimum, and choose wagon on Feysal. Within an hour, with no posts from Feysal or Minimum, no vote changes or accusations against Feysal or Minimum, and three posts from Tierce on anything but Minimum or Feysal, she changes her choose from Feysal to Minimum in the fourth post:

How sad that this thread would ignore redFF's scumminess. Minimum is a bad lynch and, moreover, we wouldn't want to ruin CES's record of not getting lynched, now would we?

UNCHOOSE: Feysal
CHOOSE: Minimum

Once again looks like a damage control - makes Feysal wagon smaller, and an attractive alternative for those voting Minimum to switch to choosing them. Which also means that if Tierce is scum, Minimum isn't her partner.

After that Feysal wasn't mentioned for some time, and left scumreads as well. Guess Feysal thought that Tierce got his message and her reaction is too obvious, so tried to distance a bit - "For one thing, while I don't know how I expected her to react to my post #224, I did not expect her to ignore it completely and quietly move off my wagon." But the response from Tierce is either brilliant damage control, or a perfect explanation of her shift of focus from Feysal (ie this wasn't a dialogue and addumptions are wrong). So more reading is needed.

Feysal, 991: "It may surprise you that your responses have given me a better read of you. Not quite the obvious town so many others call you, but better."
Tyene, 1002: "I thought you had been in an

informed

position and distorting things"
These two phrases also caught my attention, but i have a feeling i am just paranoid, and misinterpret innocuous things, like how Tierce!scum would know that their traitor was Informed?

Short version - there was a change in Tierce stance on Feysal, but she gave a natural explanation for it. Paranoid part of me still has doubts, but logical part points at things that speak against Tierce being Stannis aligned.

First, her stance on redFF and DCL speaks in her favor, it was consistent and she didn't try to jump off the wagon when DCL started rolling. If this was bussing, it was extreme.

Second, unless we have some fourth party (

"Elsewhere, Brienne of Tarth looked for Catelyn Stark"

), we are missing only one night kill (night 1), and i believe the missing kill belongs to Aegons, therefore Stannis didn't recruit Feysal (i asked are there any other ways to recruit traitors, but nobody answered). Actually, Aegons know better, whether they missed at night 1 - if they didn't (shoot mason??), then they will figure out that Feysal was recruited and kill Tierce.

Third, if we believe Shinori (i still do), Tierce did nothing on night 3. If she is Stannis, with DCL dead and Feysal still isolated, someone else did a factional kill. But using factional kill would prevent that someone from using any other powers, which means that Stannis consists of bunch of goons + traitor, or they have yet another member (4+1). I am in a middle of book 2, but don't remember Stannis faction being large (and i think Jal said the same with nobody objecting), and if Stannis still have 3 active members, their defense of Feysal wasn't exactly noticeable, so i doubt this is the case.

Tierce remains my leaning town read, but i will reassess it first thing each time we will have Stannis flip, if both of us will be still in the game.

[Regfan]

Don't think there's another way for traitor to be recruited. Sometimes traitor can't be recruited even via a kill as well.

There's plenty of Stannis people that could be in the game. His wife, daughter, Melissandre and a bunch of others work too.

Faction sizes are likely 4. So it'd be 3 killing scum + traitor for stannis faction.

Missing night kill is possibly two things 1) A roleblock occurring from Plezz, potentially on Bvoigt which would explain a bit. 2) Scum double killing a mason.

[kortul]

Will read now what happened while i was mulling on that hell of double ISO, but i realized that Feysal flip changes nothing in my suspicions towards Timeater.

VOTE: Timeater

[kortul]

Regfan, exactly, 3+1 and Tierce doing nothing at night means that she is really unlikely to belong to Stannis.

And i totally don't see Aegons killing a mason, with Shadow promising to torture bvoigt. Even if Shadow was telling a lie, imagine them killing a mason, and Shadow asking in the morning "so, bvoigt, whom did you shoot?".

[Regfan]

And i totally don't see Aegons killing a mason, with Shadow promising to torture bvoigt. Even if Shadow was telling a lie, imagine them killing a mason, and Shadow asking in the morning "so, bvoigt, whom did you shoot?".

Yes but by this logic it's impossible for Feysal to have been recruited, right?

[kortul]

Yes. And that also hints that Tierce "dialogue" with Feysal was a coincidence, and Stannis missed his hints.

[kortul]

Could explain his apathy, if he were still alone and had no idea where is his Faction and whom to attack, probably he was only sure about Starbuck being Aegon aligned.

[kortul]

Or has it not occured to you to just, you know, ask? I may even answer if I deem it harmless, or if I believe it to be more useful in hunting the other team.

Well, knowing your role, we can rely only on answers that have some links behind.

I have not seen him use traitors, but there is a game we both played in relevant to what you want to know.

For example, this one, can you give a link to this game?

Mulled this game over in my head on the way home today (And finally home so should be able to get back to full activity tonight in 4-5 hours) and I don't think Molla fits as scum at all. Him lying about getting the message during the day to avoid being night-killed makes sense regardless of his alignment however the way that he came out and stated as much is genuine. Very genuine. All in all his role and play meta-wise point highly towards him being town.

Tierce, I'll ask you this: Do you think Stannis-Scum would be told that Aegon-Scum is split up? I don't. That removes him being Stannis-Scum.

Do you think as Aegon-Scum he'd come out and state the make up of his faction? I don't.

So overall just from that alone he's town.

Regfan, after i saw Feysal "flip" i had paranoid thoughts: what if Aegons are not split, just also have a traitor, and BBmola is either looking for him, or telling the faction "recruit me"? But i doubt scum would be so openly looking for each other. And Starbuck is more likely Aegon anyway.

Timeater - Yeah this ain't Stannis. He could be a regular Goon trying to get in a nightkill for his team via the Choose mechanic, but mind you,

this is incredibly dangerous for an uninformed Aegon: because shooting someone may mean they hit one of their (unkn)own, if they really are divided.

Bolded part is true only if Starbuck really wanted to be choosen. At that time MoI already expressed desire to be choosen, and there wasn't a crowd waiting to choose him. So yes, Starbuck could be genuine VT asking to be choosen, or could be scum aiming to get rid of pressure once and for all with an early VT claim with town looking explanation. I cannot distinguish her motivation, this is null tell for me. But if this is town tell for you because of the bolded part, this is wrong - at that time it was obvious that nobody would seriously consider choosing those who asked for it, so this wasn't a dangerous gambit if she is scum.

Will be busy on Sunday, so will reassess my null and leaning scum reads next week. Town reads only if i will have a lot of time (which is unlikely), since game IS big (besides, my town reads keep dying left and right anyway).