A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Minimum]

Me, too. I'm in the middle of a big post, but every time I ISO someone, I go, "eh...but he and/or his predecessor sounds kind of town here." I'm afraid this is a repeat of Abarat where every single one of the scum towards the end of the game is among my town reads.

[Minimum]

EBWOP: um..,that "me too" was in response to the drawing board comment, Now I'll stop spamming until I hae something productive to say.

[Minimum]

Stuff from a few pages back:

Re: the Benmage kill: I agree I wasn't expecting him to die, but if you don't think he was killed for being trusted (or possibly), what alternate explanation is there? I checked his posts a few days ago, and IIRC, he didn't really attack one person strongly (other than Feysal). His most recent reads were somewhat vague. He did seem to be developing a scum read on Thor, but if Thor is scum, then he's much more likely to be responsible for the Lyanna kill (and I don't see Thor killing Benmage, for the same reason Magua said he wouldn't).

On a fluffier note:

Regfan, just read me? We've hydraed together as scum; that should surely let you determine my alignment.

Moments like these are when I'm grateful to be inside this hydra rather than on the outside looking in.

======================================================================================

Mina, really what I want from you are reads and stances with a small amount of reasoning behind it, I just need to be able to follow your thought process and understand where you're heads at because when you've shown as much in the past I've been able to read you correctly.

Fair enough--although given that this is multiball, there's a chance this will be more useful in guiding nightkills than in helping you read me:

-

Regfan

is confirmed town (not that that came as any shock).

Pandora

's overall play as well as claim look town, although I feel like I haven't been rigorous enough with this read. I keep desperately clinging to a faint hope that

Plum

will flip scum at the end of the day, but there's no way they'd be this protown and active in a walking dead slot. Had like two seconds of paranoia when

Zdenek

claimed Jeyne, but when I realized there was no actual scum motivation for it (and "maybe that's what he'd WANT people to think" was a stupid motivation), I went back to being resolute in my town read on him.

4nxi3ty

is not for lynching any time soon, because his namecop is confirmed and he's very likely a JOAT (that was Randyll Tarly's fakeclaim in AFFC, although his abilities weren't the same, and Faraday has a sick, sick obsession with filling his set-ups with as many in-jokes referring to past games as possible, no matter how cruel and pointless); his terrible investigation as well as mockingjaye's equally terrible roleblock--though, you know, terrible--are consistent with their stated reads in the thread.

-I actually went through a period of time today where I seriously suspected

Tyene

, based on her reaction to being pressured and the way she felt kind of floaty and follow-the-crowd, but now I'm back to thinking she's town. A combination of things, but in large part her reaction to AV. This is palpable town rage, not just "scumhunting for the other faction."

-

BBmolla

's play makes some sense as a traitor signaling to his team, but is kind of needlessly out there for a full member of either Stannis or Aegon (never mind that if he's Stannis, he'd have to be Informed somehow, or else he's outing himself to the other scumteam). I'm pretty pissed off by the fact that he deliberately does nothing whatsoever and then goes, "Look, I'm doing nothing whatsoever! If I was scum, I would try." That's putting his meta over his win con if he's town. There are a bunch of questions I should ask him when it isn't midnight and I wasn't supposed to have studied instead of indulging Regfan. He has to fullclaim soon, but now isn't the time to lynch him.

-Already explained my read on

AurorusVox

.

Shinori

has played his role in a horribly antitown fashion, but I ISO'd him, and he feels kind of lost, as though he doesn't actually have an agenda behind anything he's saying. (Disclaimer: whenever I catch myself using soft hippy justifications for why a player

feels

town, he invariably flips scum--see Feysal.) Just the way he blurted out his claim, and asked the question about investigative and killing roles, and made an aside about how badly he was playing when asking town for feedback. Sadly, I think he was playing a lot "better" in terms of activity/protown case making in Abarat (where he was scum), but he seemed really nervous/high strung/concerned with appearances. Here, he's a lot more relaxed and floaty (although it could just be null disengagement with the game).

-Leaves Magua, kortul, Timeater, and Thor. I deliberately gave

Thor

some space today to see what he did when people weren't attacking him and he had nothing to whine about. I'm not as confident on Thor as I was at the end of Day 4--by which I mean, I'm no longer caught up in the heat of the moment and all "DIE, SCUM, DIE!" I still think that he's the best lynch. (I should really be working on an assignment, so since we're not lynching any time soon, I'll save the actual follow-up on Thor for another evening.) I kind of agree that Jal has some town-sounding comments, but most of them are just the kind of soft questions anyone can ask in multiball. I also hated his earlier stance on our wagon.

-Q: has anyone seen

Timeater

as scum before? CES and I were staunchly in the Starbuck-town camp early on, but we're reconsidering given the slot's inactivity, TE's wonky reads and uncharacteristic lack of engagement, and the lack of better places places left to look. In retrospect, Starbuck's first posts were pretty scummy, actually, and a lot less emotional than what little I've seen of her play. The VT claim still seems needlessly bold for scum that early. Question for TE: you called yourself obvtown. Why specifically do you believe you're obvtown here?

-

Magua

is near the top of my scum list by attrition, but I can't pin anything concrete on him--whenever I ISO him, I doubt this read, because he's making good points and seems to believe a lot of what he's arguing (for example, re: massclaiming). I feel like he's been somewhat passive and low-key, which is a warning sign in multiball; he's not as passionate, confrontational or obvtown as he usually is. Also, his suspect list is a bit safe (not fond of his attacks on Timeater and BBmolla for essentially playing badly). Magua, why aren't we on your scumlist?

-Actually starting to suspect

kortul

a lot more than I did before, now that I'm looking at him more closely. His reaction to Stefan's lynch isn't as townish as I remember, although there are nuggets of towniness buried in his ISO. He fits the pattern of the kind of reasonable but middle-of-the-road scum player who blends into the background. Don't like his post today talking about MoS--it felt a bit contrived. His intro posts have a lot about the theory of choosing and set-up speculation, which is common for scum trying to ease themselves into a game by starting with safe topics. If he's scum, more likely Stannis, based on how much he talks about Sal and bvoigt, but is he clever enough to fake this?

============================================================

tl;dr version

Town: Regfan, Pandora, 4nxi3ty, Zdenek, Tyene
Pending: BBmolla, Shinori
Scumpool: Thor, kortul, Magua, Timeater (least sure of TE)

Odds of more than half of the suriving scum being in the scum pool, given how much I suck at this game: 0%

Note that none of these reads have anything to do with connections to flipped scum.

[Minimum]

EBWOP: Forgot to add AV and Plum. They can both go into town, although a few of the town reads deserve asterisks by their name--like, the math says I have to be embarrassingly wrong about someone.

[BBmolla]

-BBmolla's play makes some sense as a traitor signaling to his team, but is kind of needlessly out there for a full member of either Stannis or Aegon (never mind that if he's Stannis, he'd have to be Informed somehow, or else he's outing himself to the other scumteam). I'm pretty pissed off by the fact that he deliberately does nothing whatsoever and then goes, "Look, I'm doing nothing whatsoever! If I was scum, I would try." That's putting his meta over his win con if he's town. There are a bunch of questions I should ask him when it isn't midnight and I wasn't supposed to have studied instead of indulging Regfan. He has to fullclaim soon, but now isn't the time to lynch him.

Honestly I feel like we can PoE this to victory. Even if that means lynching me down the line.

[Minimum]

Maybe you're a lot more optimistic than I am. In my experience, PoE is never as airtight as people think it is (either because the town gets paranoid and lynches someone who should be confirmed, or because one of the scum infiltrates the cleared pool).

Bottom line: even one mislynch can make a difference. You don't want to be that mislynch!

[BBmolla]

Bottom line: even one mislynch can make a difference. You don't want to be that mislynch!

Well I'm not going to be at the moment.

The shitty incoming storm on me is definitely un-nerving.

Still don't even know how to read you, all the easily read players are dead.

[Thor665]

and I don't see Thor killing Benmage, for the same reason Magua said he wouldn't

Sadly true, I've claimed as much *while scum*. I'll even admit i think he's not a bad player and has good reads on average, but his attitude destroys towns.

I agree with your Kortul read - the rest look pretty miffy to me.

The only town thing you said was mentioning PoE was kinda a derp plt...though a lot of your reads are currently based on PoE - which leaves me with my usual nags about you.

What am I getting wrong there?

[BBmolla]

Thor's probably scum.

[Plums Yo Mamma]

Here, there isn't even any decent amount of towncred to be won, so my conclusion is that the action choice is legitimately coming from Town.

except when you are asked to claim, and you can say "yeah, I protected that really townie power role N1 with my one-shot ability" instead of "no, I'm just VT". the question is if MoS would replace out after having a brilliant scumgambit like that under his sleeve, and his activity tells me yes, he would. He didn't invest too much in it, so it's better if a replacement takes up his reins and drives it a bit more to greatness.

[kortul]

Ok, with Lyanna crumb and Shadow response we can be certain that Rolestopper part is true. I thought about MoS being jailkeeper (ie add roleblocker part), but we already had 2 roleblockers, and Shadow claimed "Investigation returned

no active role

", which doesn't sound like blocked result. So, role part is true. Now there's question about alignment.

Rolestopping Shadow on Night1 is detrimental for the Aegon faction, so MoS can't be Aegon.

As for the Stannis faction, they can only gain from Rolestopping Shadow on night 1.

If Shadow claim is true, he will either block a shot from town Vig, or ruin the claim of rival scum during the night, and if Shadow claim is false, he will be a perfect lynch candidate for the day 2. Not to mention a perfect cover claim for the future, in case it is needed. 1-shot means that he is not an attractive target for Aegons after the claim, and protecting claimed torturer get town credit (look at Regfan, Tierce and Minimum).

Since i thought AV/MoS to be more likely Stannis anyway, claim does nothing to lower the suspicions.

VOTE: AurorusVox

[kortul]

Reads are:
<...>
MinimumScum

As for Minimum, I have no idea - ask Timmy.

By which I mean, I am sheeping him.

If you think someone is scum, the answer why can't be "no idea".

[Plums Yo Mamma]

fuck I definitely lost that post.
and I knew I would fucking lose it because it's fucking 4 in the morning.

and guess who I lost my beautiful post to?
fucking SAPOERINT SCUM FUCK'S FAKECLAIM
FUCK
FUCK FUCK FUCK
FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK

Unvote, Vote: Timeater

fuck.
Regfan, double sheep me.
you promised.

[Tyene Sand]

What changed between Post 3309 and Post 3312, Nacho?

[Eddard Stark]

Day 5, Votecount 13

Thor665 (2) - Pandora, Minimum
Timeater (2) - Magua, Plums Yo Mamma
Zdenek (2) - 4nx3ty, Thor665

AurorusVox (3) - Zdenek, BBmolla, kortul

Minimum (2) - Timeater, AurorusVox

Not Voting (4):

Shinori, Regfan, Regfan, Tyene Sand

With 14 alive and 1 living dead it takes 8 to lynch.

Deadline

: 25th October at 19:30pm Ireland time. (GMT+1)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-10-25 14:30:02)

[Plums Yo Mamma]

What changed between Post 3309 and Post 3312, Nacho?

A reread.
I see myself making fucked up reasoning in order to justify keeping my vote on an otherwise pretty solid claim, which is Nacho incorrectly tunneling meta 101. I come up with some Zdenek-crazy theories in order to justify some weird fucking scum scenario, and it is wrong so hard most of the time. I still think that AV is scum, but I think it's better that we head here for now and give the Lemon a pass, at least for the day. Because Timeeater is so fucking scum and I have been letting that slot go too far based completely on D1 play, and it's time to bring the hammer down on his scum ass. I would love to explain why, but I'm not probably not going to be able to repost that big fucking post until much, much later because I have decided to stay up all night and then am going to be out of town all weekend, so it will have to be done in chunks.

I'm honestly probably going to die tonight and it will be a sad affair and really really frustrating because I love this game a lot and have put my heart and soul into certain moments in it, so we are going to make the scum kill us. I have never wanted to lynch scum so badly as I have here because there were honestly a lot of impressive performances in this game and I do not want to piss any of anyone's (even Zdenek, even though he's crazy as hell) effort in this game. I wanna lynch scum, and I want to dance on their graves. Plus it would be so beautiful if Feysal's vote was used to lynch his scumsuspect after he was already dead because that would be hilarious. And I don't know what purpose the second paragraph had, but w/e.

[kortul]

Here goes away my suspicion that Nacho was protecting Timeater by pushing Feysal lynch.

VOTE: Timeater

Tierce, Regfan

, i am interested in your opinions about my logic in 3310. I mean, i can see AC claim coming both from town rolestopper, and Stannis rolestopper, and nothing in it indicates the alignment for me, so i just ignore it and judge this slot based on everything else. If you see anything that heavily indicates that one of the possibilities is much more likely, or there are faults in my logic, i am interested to hear.

[Regfan]

I want to lynch the AV slot so badly but I can't bring myself to do it. The claim makes so much sense as town and while I understand the argument that MoS might have used his power in a townie fashion purely to clear himself of it later in the game I think he'd have mentioned as much inside a scum QT and I think if that were the case then AV would leap on claiming much earlier than he did. Also that sort of role in a scum-team can prevent a scum member from being cross killed, I don't see him wasting that sort of thing on a townie that often, not from him anyway given he lost his last scum game due to cross-kills.

Kortul, I don't really agree with Stannis faction gaining from rolestopping Shadow1 that much, they wouldn't have known if Bvoigt was legtiimate or not meaning they'd have seen it was two scenarios 1) Shadow would be investigating a town player and could be getting a clear on them; in that case why would they roelstop Shadow1 guarenteeing he lives to out that result, clears hurt both scum-teams and in situation 2) Shadow would be getting a guilty, sure in that case it means that the next days lynch isn't a Stannis member but that's the extent of the benefits. So really while I get where you're trying to come from and while I absolutely hate it I think the claims not a chance in the world Aegon-Scum, less likely Stannis-Scum and more likely town.

I really like a lot of the thought-process inside Minas large wall posts, eases my mind of that slot quite a bit.

fuck. Regfan, double sheep me. you promised.

You have my (s)word, plus I actually do very much agree with this lynch at the moment.

Vote: Timeater

Vote:

Timeater

[kortul]

Ok, let's check it. The assumption is that MoS is Stannis rolestopper, and the question is - is there any benefit to a faction to use this on Shadow,

This is night 1. Due to BBmola "letter" thing, Stannis are already aware that this is multiball. There is an odd-day vig claim - it has to be dealt with somehow, because either this is town vig, or a rival scum.

One option is to simply kill him. But there is another - to make sure that a claimed torturer lives through the night to tell whether vig is real, and if he isn't, Stannis don't have to waste a shot and can use a lynch instead. If Shadow will confirm that bvoigt is town vig on day 2, then nothing is lost - they can kill the vig during second night, but have an added bonus of a protection claim on a conf town PR for one of faction members.

As an added bonus, this is a claim that any faction member can use, if needed, not just the actual rolestopper.

[Regfan]

Ok, let's check it. The assumption is that MoS is Stannis rolestopper, and the question is - is there any benefit to a faction to use this on Shadow, This is night 1. Due to BBmola "letter" thing, Stannis are already aware that this is multiball. There is an odd-day vig claim - it has to be dealt with somehow, because either this is town vig, or a rival scum. One option is to simply kill him. But there is another - to make sure that a claimed torturer lives through the night to tell whether vig is real, and if he isn't, Stannis don't have to waste a shot and can use a lynch instead. If Shadow will confirm that bvoigt is town vig on day 2, then nothing is lost - they can kill the vig during second night, but have an added bonus of a protection claim on a conf town PR for one of faction members.

This is all leading back to the one point that's been brought up against his claim being legitimate and that's 'Mafia can claim town-cred because of saving a town PR' and that logic can be used on

any

claim that has ever happened, the fact dwindles down to the usage of the role makes sense from town and the role makes sense from town, it makes no sense from aegon scum and it's a stretch to make sense from stannis scum since it'd be them wasting a 1-shot usage.

As an added bonus, this is a claim that any faction member can use, if needed, not just the actual rolestopper.

No...? Lets say scum member #2 claims the role, AV flips rolestopper then scum #2 becomes confirmed scum.

[kortul]

Saving a night kill by lynching rival through the day is benefit in my eyes. And your arguments prove that you see this claim as coming from town (and so do at least Tierce and Minimum), which means that it does carry a town cred.

But what the hell, this claim doesn't condemn him in any way (and neither it clears him in my eyes), so if you know AV and think he can improve his play and start working, i am willing to wait and see it for myself.

And you are right about the second part, so scratch that added bonus. I didn't look at it from this angle.

[4nxi3ty]

I agree with the logic of a scumrolestopper wouldn't use it on town. The benefit of using it on a buddy severely outweighs any sort of indirect towncred. I want to reread MoS and see if he was aware of it being a rolestopper or thought it was a roleblocker.

Which is also why I think it's only 1-shot...

It should be very clear whether your ability is oneshot or not, what is making you unsure?

The development of my read on your slot should be incredibly clear if you were actually reading my posts. Here you go:

Okay lets pretend for a sec I am completely wrong about you making the mistake of calling my slot- "Overall town with one post that was scummy" and you in fact meant to say- "unsure of my read and changed my mind throughout the day". I still find your read changes more agendabased rather than changing naturally.

[AurorusVox]

No 4nx, I mean, that's what I think justifies making it 1-shot.

Instead of posting my thoughts in a stream of consciousness I'm going to read and make notes and post all at once at the end, but I promise I will try to limit the size of it. If I scumread someone, I'll pick the biggest glaring thing, if I townread someone, I will justify it as succinctly as possible, etc. This a post to give me a full 48 hours to do that before I post again. If you have any other questions that need burning answers before then, please post them asap so that I can answer before going to bed tonight.

[kortul]

Can you explain again your current town read on Timmy?

[AurorusVox]

Right, well. I think if Timmy was scum who just waded in and claimed, he wouldn't have fucked it up and softclaim something that someone else has already claimed, since he would have been provided with a fakeclaim. I don't see the reason scum would ditch a fakeclaim like that, especially not when you've just replaced in.