Mini 1379 - Game Over!

[BBmolla]

UN you really think Mastin and CooLDog could coordinate this shit during the start of this day.

[BBmolla]

UN which buddy is mastin bussing, fitz or Kimor?

[havingfitz]

VOTE: No Lynch

@BB...why does mastin have to be bussing anyone?

@mastin....feel free to answer my questions to you that don't pertain to MYLO or AtFing.

[BBmolla]

Because there are three in a scumteam and UN only named two. UN has to be assuming Mastin is bussing you or Kimor because whatshisnut is town.

[MattP]

Day 3

Axxle ( 0 )

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(L - 5 )

BBmolla ( 0 )

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(L - 5 )

CooLDoG ( 0 )

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(L - 5 )

havingfitz ( 0 )

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(L - 5 )

Kimor ( 0 )

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(L - 5 )

mastin2 ( 1 )

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(L - 4 )

UberNinja
redtail896 ( 0 )

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(L - 5 )

UberNinja ( 1 )

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(L - 4 )

Axxle
No Lynch ( 2 )

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(L - 3 )

BBmolla, havingfitz
Not Voting ( 4 ) CooLDoG, Kimor, mastin2, redtail896

Total Votes ( 8 )

Needed to Lynch [ 5 ]

Deadline: November 3rd at 6:00PM EST

[BBmolla]

Oh nvm Axxle is there too.

[havingfitz]

UN you really think Mastin and CooLDog could coordinate this shit during the start of this day.

Devil's advocate: Probably not last night, but if they have daytalk and realized it was MYLO....why not try to end the day with a little well placed gambitting?

[UberNinja]

I think they could have coordinated it last night easily. And MattP's mod error only made it all the better for them and worse for me. That's something I can't control. But as fitz says, it's possible they have daytalk. I think it's unlikely against such a low power town however.

I don't know who the last scum is, if there is one. I have no doubt that I'm dying tonight anyway when Cooldog/mastin is lynched, because as soon as one of them flips scum there's no fucking chance I'd get lynched.

[UberNinja]

Actually, I could kind of see two daytalking scum. But I'm not sure how much sense that makes... I think there's three but I'm just not sure who it is.

BBmolla seems town the more I think about it. Redtail continues to be prob-town, but I have to reexamine in light of RobertMontana's flip + Cooldog being near-confirmed scum and mastin as buddy making total sense.

fitz is very likely town regardless.

[mastin2]

I'd accept a no-lynch, but I'm against the concept of voting for a no-lynch. It'd only cut off discussion we're having right now. It's the same reason I'm not voting anyone--to not be reckless.
That said, we're either massclaiming or no-lynching. Not both. So if we no-lynch, we don't massclaim; if we massclaim, we lynch today.

@mastin....feel free to answer my questions to you that don't pertain to MYLO or AtFing.

Don't see 'em. Saw some about the VCA, but I pointed that out in my own VCA, that while intuition says scum on d1 lynch, not-all-scum on d2 lynch, instinct and general state of the game with all of my reads and how everything has played out suggests the general rule is wrong, and that this is the exception to it.

---

UN still has not explained why there was a moderator error.
I have.

I had a one-shot doc. I submitted it the second Matt flipped RM as town. My doc only protects against one shot. Matt knew I was protecting Trollie, so his initial flip for last night did not include Trollie's death.
Then, he realized one of these facts:
-My doc only protects from one attack, not all.
-Trollie was shot twice, not once.
-Or, that I was RB'd.

The third is possible, but doubtful, both because the moderator error happened, AND because of Cooldog's claim fitting up perfectly.

And I don't gambit in lylo. Not as town, not as scum. Search any of my games to see if you can find a lylo gambit--you won't find any, because I don't. My claim in Mini whateveritwas wasn't a gambit; I had been forced to softclaim earlier, and then I managed to make a claim in lylo which just so happened to fit the power roles of the game. It seemed believable enough, and ironically enough, the assumptions I made during my claim turned out to be completely correct, but it was not a gambit--it was just pure dumb luck. A desperate claim made out of necessity.

Here, UN's saying that I'd have to coordinate a gambit with my scumbuddy, when
-Cooldog was under virtually zero pressure. Why go under the microscope during mylo when he can just ride it out?
-I-as-scum could easily exploit the towncred I'd gain from being off the RM lynch, resetting myself to d1. Why intentionally put myself back into the line of fire, when I have an easy way to stay out of it?

...For a gambit which requires two game-days' worth of planning, for a chance at winning, when our claims could easily be countered if we were scum and simply playing the game would be more likely to get us the victory?

Yeah.

[MattP]

Let's not speculate about mod errors / try to game-break ty <3

[Kimor]

Hmmm... kill/death/mod-error speculation time:

1. There is the "obvious" but absolutely totally incorrect one that I'm going to address immediately because it's not true and I don't want to be lynched stupidly. Which is, AP said he was going to "vig" me and then hid behind me, knowing his crumb would be picked up and when he flipped hider that I'd be lynched. And also, I killed Trollie.

This is not the case.

The other possible cases I can think of for why/how things happened how they did (which are actually better explained and make more sense, even if you're NOT me and don't KNOW FOR A FACT that the above is false), are:

2. AP hid behind Trollie, who was killed to frame me, and MattP the mod accidentally treated it like a bodyguard or something instead of a hider, then realized it was a hider after scum PM'd him to point out that Trollie should have died too if AP died hiding behind Trollie.

3. Or the third option is simply that there is another kill in the game which got blocked the first night and went through last night (i.e. serial killer). Which means a doc got lucky on Night 1 and blocked one of the kills, (I think if it was a roleblocker or jailer that they'd have spoken up, so more likely doc here).

Thoughts?

In regards to the counter-claim that I discussed earlier, this is the post where I got it from. I was reading rather quickly due to incoming walls of text, though, so I may have misparsed it.

Good point about the hider, I hadn't thought about that...I don't think I've ever played with a hider before, to be honest.

Me, UN and Fitz posting cannot be a scumtell because we would have had to coordinate times to be posting, which would be stupid. I didn't know when the mod would open the thread, and I can't imagine anybody else would either. I think it's only logical that the only 4 really active players in the game have been the 4 posting.

Otherwise, I need to read the encyclopedia you all posted more fully.

[mastin2]

Speaking of the moderator error...

VOTE: UN

fuck u AP i wanted UN dead.

fine, we lynched RM. good news is that now we know he is conftown.

UN is scum. I'll be back to post more later today right now I need to go audition for our wonderful mod.

Trollie clearly went into today convinced UN was scum.
Which makes more sense?

I-as-scum nightkilled someone suspicious of UN to frame UN, when said person was my strongest ally...
...Or that UberNinja nightkilled someone he couldn't take into lylo, because he knew he wasn't going to convince him?

Repeat that for Slandaar N1.

Put simply: my reads change. I have it in my guide, even. I reconsider, I doubt myself at every turn, and I constantly wonder if I've gone wrong. (Heck, even now, I'm thinking of that. What if, somehow, UN were town? What would that mean? Do I really want to risk that, when if I'm wrong about him being scum, I've cost the town the game?)

Slandaar's don't. Trollie's wouldn't, and as the above demonstrates, didn't.
UN couldn't take Trollie to lylo. And even with 9 players, it'd be too risky. Trollie was the strongest advocate of UN-scum, as the above showed. He'd have forced the lynch through.

Me? Not so much. I don't have as much towncred, my reads change more often, and I'm basically the ultimate wildcard, someone he'd think he could safely keep around, because even if my reads didn't change, I'd still be mislynchable.

Trollie, on the other hand...Slandaar, on the other hand...both not likely to change their reads, both not touchable by the lynch.
If I were scum and UN weren't, why would I kill two players who were strongly supporting me?
One, maybe, but two?!?

If UN were scum, why kill two players trying to kill him?
...Do I need to say that again? It kinda answers itself. It's not that killing Trollie as scum would be stupid for UN, it's that he literally had no choice BUT to kill Trollie. And when I think about it, it's the same for Slandaar.
Like I said. It's NOT by any stretch of the imagination hard to see:
"Kill: Slandaar/Trollie. He won't back down.
Leave Mastin alive. He will, (and even if he doesn't, he'll catch flak for his actions.)"

[havingfitz]

@mastin....I haven't poured through your walls today yet. The fact CoolDog claimed his action before you is actually a point in his favor and sets up the possibility of you fakeclaiming doc on the heels of his claim.

And your downplaying of what is very slim odds (IMO and from experience) is very convenient. I don't see the downside to no lynching. If I do vote someone today it will not be UN or Kimor based on the D1 and D2 lynches.

Btw...Did either of you breadcrumb your roles?

[UberNinja]

Let's not speculate about mod errors / try to game-break ty <3

...

This pretty much confirms mastin as scum

[mastin2]

And if you doubt my claim, I prepared the proof:

Spoiler: Was typed some time ago

I have no desire to do so (I want to either have to have used my ability and be able to claim who it's on, OR to be able to counterclaim scum going for an easy fakeclaim, hence my push so hard to get both BBM and RM to claim), but thanks to UN's confirmation bias, it's possible that I may need to claim, so I should begin working on the proof of why I am what I will say I am.

Of course, the largest hint to people should be my obsession with the nightkill. Yes, that's part of who I am regardless of my role, but the emphasis I had on my failure to see a Slandaar kill coming should have been hints strong enough.


Anyway, first hint: Maestro's questioning of BBM's doc claim.
Second hint: Maestro says he's the doctor.

If memory serves, I don't have any D1 hints. I was, after all, trying to get nightkilled, so I figured if I did my job, I wouldn't need any.

Actually, I did have one--I wanted FP to claim. If FP claimed doctor, I'd CC, easy 1V1 with me holding more credibility. FP gets lynched, I get NK'd, game continues on with my analysis being used. (In theory, anyway.)

I remember this, because I specifically pushed for BBM's claim d2. Had his initial claim been anything other than doctor, I wouldn't have done so. But I needed to make sure he wasn't scum, setting up a doc-claim, so I needed a hardclaim of what he was.

"Why didn't you suspect BBM if he claimed your role?!?"
The same reason Maestro didn't: because I'm not an idiot.
BBM's claim was RVS. This was the reason for the hardclaim, as mentioned above. If he was scum planning on using a refuge-in-audacity doctor claim, then he'd be caught by me, but otherwise, I'd have no reason to think him scum.

This is one of the main reasons when BBM claimed VTown, that I dropped my case against him; if he were scum, I'd have expected a doctor claim or something of similar nature.

Also, need to double-check Slandaar townreads and Slandaar suspects.

Was not expecting his kill.

Here's where the real hint begins. My obsession with the Slandaar kill goes beyond what is reasonable for a VT doing NK analysis, for the simple reason that I'm not a VT--

I'm a doctor, albeit limited. And I felt as if I had failed, for not having stopped the Slandaar kill. As town, yes, I always do NK analysis, but why was it so important to me that I hadn't seen his kill coming?

Because, simply put, it was my job to have stopped the scum's kill, and I didn't see their kill.

515 was a huge one. Why did I feel as if I needed to be hyper-aggressive?

Because if I didn't, then the scum would think they could get away with a kill on me, for being town enough to be a threat, but not town enough for protection.

I was fine with being killed (though I'll admit--I had a little bit of a fear of it), but I wanted to make sure if I was, that people thought it was for my reads, not for my status as town-but-not-town-enough, if that makes sense.

At the time, I was a universal townread. Everyone thought I was town. Everyone. (Including a primary suspect, Axxle.)

So, I said (quite bluntly) to myself, "Mastin...you're

screwed

." And I decided two things:
-My main chance of living was to make sure the scum thought I'd be docced, and
-If the scum killed me and I wasn't protected, that people would listen to my reads and know why I died.
Hence the playstyle shift.

Note, I said that my main chance of living was to make sure the scum thought I'd be doc'd.
Why didn't I say that my main chance of living would be to BE doc'd?
Because I AM the doc, that's why.
And that's also the wording in the latter--note how I say "I wasn't protected". Protected, not doc'd. Because I'm only a one-shot doc, there has to be another protective role present, so while I could be protected (by, say, a bodyguard or a jailkeeper), I couldn't be doctored (because I AM the doctor).

You can see the NK-spec continue here, for good reason.


I pushed for an RM claim for much the same reasons as outlined for BBM and FP: if RM claimed doctor, I'd be there to CC. If I claimed one-shot doctor first, then RM'd know not to claim a protective role.

Also, look at post 700 (iso 97), for where I bluntly say I'm not getting lynched; I'm getting NK'd. The reason for that? Because the scum can't let me live.

And there are a few others where I put some similar sentiments of "I'm confirmed town, so screw your suspicion, UN" .

However, none of these are 'crumbs. They're hints, but not flat-out breadcrumbing. Realizing this, I just went out and made it about as explicit as I was willing:

hat enough for ya to negotiate with

D

ear

R

ambling Mastin?

DR Mastin. Dr. Mastin. Doctor Mastin.

It's not much, but like I said, I wasn't really planning on claiming one-shot doctor. Not unless I made a successful protection or a scum player claimed doc.

One crumb not mentioned there is the fact that I knew there was a killing role in this game besides the scum, which I said in one of my posts towards AP.

Also, I fully believe there's another killing power in play other than the scum's, but it's almost certainly limited shot.

Not exactly 'crumbs for the most part, but more like general mindset. Look at my play with the mindset of me as a one-shot doctor, and you'll see it clearly:
Why I knew I'd have to be nightkilled, why I was so obsessed with the nightkills, why I wanted to force the hardclaims that I did (in particular, BBM's) so that if any of them were scum fakeclaiming a protective role, I'd be there to counterclaim and set up an easy trade.

If that's faked, then I had been setting it up for an awfully long time.

[MattP]

Let's not speculate about mod errors / try to game-break ty <3

...

This pretty much confirms mastin as scum

If anyone tries to speculate about my mod error / dissuasion of discussion about it again they will be modkilled. Consider yourselves warned.

Don't fuck with me.

[UberNinja]

Um... I'm not sure what else I can say to/about mastin without getting modkilled...

...so I'm just going to return to talking about CoolDog.

His choice to kill Trollie makes no fucking sense as town.
His choice to

not

question AP makes no sense as town.
His choice to

not

kill AP makes no sense as town.
His choice to claim the Trollie kill makes no sense as town.

Unvote; Vote: Cooldog

Sheep me fuckers. It's fucking open and shut.

[redtail896]

I would rather massclaim than No lynch, as I don't think the extra night lynch will produce much in the way of useful information.

I find it not inconceivable that scum could've organized a claim like this, however Cooldog and mastin's willingness to claim what would've been the easiest to counterclaim roles throws a wrench in that (given there are no counters).

I don't find it inconceivable that town PRs consisted of 4 one-shots, although it feels a little weak.

Kimor: I don't see that as UN counterclaiming. If he wanted to counterclaim, he would/should have done so already.

I want to hear what CoolDog says in response to UN's vig comments before I jump into that.

[UberNinja]

I am not counter-claiming anything. I have my own claim which will be glorious when I give it. Which will be last.

[UberNinja]

[mastin2]

1. Axxle*
2. BBmolla (VT)
3. CooLDoG* (1-shot vig)
5. havingfitz
6. mastin2replaces Maestro (1-shot doctor)
7. redtail896
11. UberNinja
13. Kimorreplaces Pine who replaces Verity

...So, what order would

you

propose, UN?
What, exactly, do you have to gain by waiting on others to claim, when your primary suspect(s) have already claimed?

[BBmolla]

Wish we didn't mislynch Robert yesterday. I hope we lose ass holes.

[UberNinja]

I'm not talking about waiting for mass claim mastin. I couldn't care less about it.

I'm waiting for you and CoolDog to be lynched.

[CooLDoG]

I vigged trolle last night. I am a one-shot vig

More tomorrow.

That's interesting...Why did you kill Trollie?

Read the game thread. I have basically had him at #1 or near that the entire game.

ohh mastin, mastin. I'm half tempted not to read your posts because they reek of a mad man's ravings. I killed trolle becuase I thought he was scum. Crucify me for acting on a read if you wish...

Isn't it convenient how Cooldog's and mastin's claims reinforce each other's SO CONVENIENTLY?

It seems like it is over qualified to me. Only being able to stop one kill is a dead give-a-way for a vig. If the mod has that in his role PM he is truly a shit mod. I refuse to believe we have a shit mod:

vote: mastin

My PM mentions specifically that my shot can only protect from one kill.

^this is bullshit.

Good point on the CoolDog AP vig claim stuff.

CoolDog?

This is going to sound like bullshit okay, but brace yourselves.
Number 1: I haven't read the end of d2 yet in much detail at all.
Number 2: I honestly did not see a vig softclaim.
Yes, that sounds like bullshit, but it is the truth.

Basically let's lynch trolle now.

He thought trollie was scum whats not to understand here

Thank you... for stating what everybody should have already known.