Mafia 158: Titanium. Game over

[mykonian]

votecount

combinatorialEnigma (4): jun, majiffy, smashbard, dividizzle
maenara (3): hiraki, NJAC, combinatorialEnigma
dividizzle (2): maenara, buldermar
hiraki (1): Thebuttonmen

not voting (2): 10506670, theomoaner

With 12 players it is 7 to lynch (6 to no lynch)

deadline is on the 27th of oktober

[Hiraki]

I can't do CE. I think my feelings for numberscum are rising again.

Glad to hear that you're against theo too.

Now here's the big question.

What page did you end on?

[Majiffy]

So when will you release an exclusive version of your post with behind-the-scenes reasons for your reads?

You want me to go through 55 pages again and cherry pick out posts? No. Once was enough. If you have a specific question I can elaborate, but I'm sure as shit not going to waste another 5 hours of my life just to re-state a lot of shit that's already been stated.

I can't do CE. I think my feelings for numberscum are rising again.

What page did you end on?

... The last one.

Why can't you do CE?

[NJAC]

Why can't you do CE Hiraki?

P-Edit: Majiffy: Glad to have you here I really hope you're town, and from now on I'll assume that because Buldermar has a decent point with the investigative role about the masons. Welcome!

BTW: why CE instead of Maenara?

[NJAC]

Also Majiffy: what do you think about the Smash' mason play, and was it a good move to claim masons that early?

[Majiffy]

Interactions with CE will shed light on the rest of my scumreads. He's the only one that has had solid interactions with everyone I can use to widdle down my reads to a more likely team.

I'm not a big fan of his reads. The claim was clever. I wasn't paying a whole lot of attention to the amount of people on the Eleison(?) wagon so I can't give a definitive answer on if I think it was "early" or a good time to claim. If he was around L-3/L-2, then yes. If he only had a couple votes, then meh. Doesn't matter now, though.

[NJAC]

@Majiffy: Do you think a CE lynch will lead us to victory? I mean are you expecting him to flip scum or his flip will more likely give us definite info? I also wonder about that "light" a CE flip will "shed"... e.g.: CE flipping scum makes Mae obv. scum?

And @Theo: a bit outdated but I didn't fully understand your post 1314. While I'm not refusing your points about the masons, because as I said buldermar already explained why falseclaiming masons as scums is suboptimal, I'd like you to clarify your odds.

I mean with two confirmed masons, it's 10 players left, 4 scums (I'm still wondering where you all get this but let's suppose it's likely) and 6 townies. That gives us a 4/10 (or 2/5) chance of not mislynching, right? Even if an hypothetical investigative role confirms two more townies, we would be in a 50/50 scenario (1/2 chance of mislynching) I guess...

[Majiffy]

I'm hoping he'll flip scum. Regardless of his flip I'm confident the information I'll get from it will provide us with at least one solid scum lynch if not two.

[NJAC]

Isn't he just bad town? I somehow associate his play to Shinori's bad play or bad newbie play. Is that the whole hat "scumslip" thing? If it's the fencesitting I see a better case on dividizzle and if it's the apathy definitely a better case on TBM being scum...

[Majiffy]

>PMysterious
>Attacks on Jun
>Attacks on Shinobi or whatever
>Complete lack of doing anything pro-town

[Hiraki]

Why can't you do CE?

It's more of a gut thing.

Also, PMysterious replace-out logic.

[10506670]

THIS game is becoming impossibly hard to read. I had 3 scumreads mainly based off votecount analysis, but none of them are solid enough to make much of a case on. I'm just going to lay down my thoughts from this point on.

JUN has turned more of an inexperienced noob read to me. I will clarify down below of some shifts in my reads.

THERE'S a couple of people whom I trust as town, and these would be buldermar and the two masons. The former because he's done a good job of hunting and picking out stuff, and the latter because smash looked town enough early on. That leaves

Combi, dividizzle, Hiraki, jun, mae, NJAC, TBM, and Theo

I don't see Rubik as being scummy. You guys keep talking about his hat, and his lack of content, but seriously it reads to me as a complete joke. The video, which Mykonian has clarified was within site rules, reassures me somewhat of this (which leads me to question whether it should have been legal or not), and even Maenara, in trying to get CE modkilled over the hat, is in essence implying that

he looks town

.

dividizzle, hiraki, jun, mae, NJAC, TBM, Theo

THIS may seem counter-intuitive but as another result of the hat scenario I'm thinking Jun is leaning closer to town now. Maybe more of a null, but I found something I only glanced over before:

Get ready to start eating. I want this guy lynched tomorrow if I get hammered today. He was my biggest scum read until I switched to Maenara since his train wasn't gaining traction. Maenara and everyone agrees that he seems really scummy, yet nobody wants to vote him with me. Interesting.

Scum. Scum. Scum.

I'd have to say I believe Jun on this one. He did read combi quite clearly as scum before switching onto Mae, so the facts line up. But more than that, the tone of the first two sentences feels genuine to me. I don't exactly like the ending of the post, but I'd have to say that he seems pretty damn confident that CE will be wrong.

ON a side note, TBM, if you come after me with a spoon I will shove ice cream down your throat.

I'm putting him aside for now, leaving at least 3 scum (possibly 4) among

dividizzle, hiraki, mae, NJAC, TBM, Theo

I'll finish later, don't want to accidentally lose this.

[Majiffy]

Nah he said he had essentially bitten off too much to chew to play in this game. Any argument that he would have stayed in as scum seems weak as a town defense; he made a lot of efforts to try to stay in by prod-dodging but ultimately couldn't keep up. If anything, it works in support of PMysterious scum.

p-edit: oh jesus it's hueg.

[Majiffy]

And nothing of any real value was posted on that day.

[combinatorialEnigma]

THIS game is becoming impossibly hard to read. I had 3 scumreads mainly based off votecount analysis, but none of them are solid enough to make much of a case on. I'm just going to lay down my thoughts from this point on.

JUN has turned more of an inexperienced noob read to me. I will clarify down below of some shifts in my reads.

THERE'S a couple of people whom I trust as town, and these would be buldermar and the two masons. The former because he's done a good job of hunting and picking out stuff, and the latter because smash looked town enough early on. That leaves

Combi, dividizzle, Hiraki, jun, mae, NJAC, TBM, and Theo

I don't see Rubik as being scummy. You guys keep talking about his hat, and his lack of content, but seriously it reads to me as a complete joke. The video, which Mykonian has clarified was within site rules, reassures me somewhat of this (which leads me to question whether it should have been legal or not), and even Maenara, in trying to get CE modkilled over the hat, is in essence implying that

he looks town

.

dividizzle, hiraki, jun, mae, NJAC, TBM, Theo

THIS may seem counter-intuitive but as another result of the hat scenario I'm thinking Jun is leaning closer to town now. Maybe more of a null, but I found something I only glanced over before:

Get ready to start eating. I want this guy lynched tomorrow if I get hammered today. He was my biggest scum read until I switched to Maenara since his train wasn't gaining traction. Maenara and everyone agrees that he seems really scummy, yet nobody wants to vote him with me. Interesting.

Scum. Scum. Scum.

I'd have to say I believe Jun on this one. He did read combi quite clearly as scum before switching onto Mae, so the facts line up. But more than that, the tone of the first two sentences feels genuine to me. I don't exactly like the ending of the post, but I'd have to say that he seems pretty damn confident that CE will be wrong.

ON a side note, TBM, if you come after me with a spoon I will shove ice cream down your throat.

I'm putting him aside for now, leaving at least 3 scum (possibly 4) among

dividizzle, hiraki, mae, NJAC, TBM, Theo

I'll finish later, don't want to accidentally lose this.

Any reason for the arbitrarily capitalized words? Or am I trying too hard to make something of them?

[Smashbard]

Buldermar, Its not rocket science but that didnt stop you from suggesting it anyway, knowing it was a bad call?

You're still only arguing from the perspective of you/elei-slot indeed being masons. The implications of that has to be weighted against the implications of both of you being scum, taking into consideration the odds of both of these scenarios, respectively. You, however, is incredible biased in your assessment because you'll never be taking into consideration the implications of yourself being scum

regardless

of your actual alignment - nor should you. However, the fact that you continually seem to insist that, for instance, Dividizzle's analysis resembles the entire spectre of possible outcomes is disturbing and (to be completely honest) pretty fucking annoying. You can't just conclude that my motives are scummy based on the fact that I take into consideration

also

the possibility of you and elei-slot being scum - get that into your head right now, because I'm getting tired of repeating it.

Actually my increasing scumread on you is based almost solely on your defense of NJAC, whom I firmly believe to be scum. I am able to admit that it is indeed a personal fault of mine because I cannot simply consider how somehow with a town mindset can look at NJAC's actions and come to the conclusion that he is town. Hence why my read on you is shaken.

[Smashbard]

EBWOP: It has almost nothing to do with the fact that you think Majiffy and I are scum.

[Smashbard]

Double EBWOP: I cannot simply consider how someone with a town mindset can find NJAC town.

[Majiffy]

I think NJAC is town. ish.

Certainly more town than a good portion of the playerlist.

[Jun]

Hi Majiffy. Glad to see you here, especially since I believe in the mason claim. You replacing in as a mason helps in two ways:
1. If scum kills you then we'll know for sure smashbard is a town mason.
2. If scum doesn't kill you, then we have a really good player alive and on the town's side.

imo, you're the best person who could have replaced in just now.

I think my distrust of buldermar and theomoaner derives from their interactions with CE and insistence that CE is simply joking about the hat. After seeing #1386 from numbers, add one more to that group. Oh, and Hiraki. This is making less of a solid case against buldermar/theomoaner/CE/numbers as scum than I had hoped.... I thought I was onto something for a moment.

In any case, I still believe CE is the most likely to be scum, and once he flips scum, I think we'll have some good new suspects in the aforementioned players.

Very relieved to see majiffy here, and very relieved majiffy believes me to be town.

[Smashbard]

I enjoy that Majiffy is putting a fresh perspective on things, even if I disagree on some of his reads. Particularly, just a page ago Majiffy said NJAC was null after 50 pages, but now he's townish. I'd like to know what he's seen that made his read change so quickly.

[Majiffy]

Well I had everyone on a sliding scale and he was leaning town as opposed to leaning scum. However, he wasn't nearly as much of a town read as any of my other town reads. Hence his null.

[buldermar]

So when will you release an exclusive version of your post with behind-the-scenes reasons for your reads?

You want me to go through 55 pages again and cherry pick out posts? No. Once was enough. If you have a specific question I can elaborate, but I'm sure as shit not going to waste another 5 hours of my life just to re-state a lot of shit that's already been stated.

I never asked for that.

[buldermar]

EBWOP: It has almost nothing to do with the fact that you think Majiffy and I are scum.

Why would you even say this when I a) didn't vote either of you and b) explicitly stated that I consider you confirmed masons and are willing to accept the small guaranteed loss percentage this may entail?

[Smashbard]

Because as much as my actions have dictated otherwise, I am not stupid. The second a mason wagon starts rolling you, Maenara and NJAC will be all over it as if you were for a Mason lynch the whole time, and the only reason you've backed off was because it quickly formed into an unpopular idea. I'm not letting you guys slide that one by without forcing you to look real scummy when it happens.