Asshat Mole 2012 - Episode 2 (Don't Forget the Rules)

[inspiratieloos]

WELP

We suck.

Well done inspie on finding the thread; knew from your post in the ctrl+v thread.

Why do you see the one with me posting about finding it, but not the one with me posting about

how

I found it?

Seriously, what were you guys doing? It took me 10 minutes of work tops, most of that finding out that Art was an alt of Flameaxe, which most of you probably knew.

I did consider posting under your/RPs names in the QT, but figured that would be cheating.

[inspiratieloos]

All I saw was you searching for Flameaxe in ISO and then the copy from the QT saying "yay you found it!"

Once the SC clue was posted I combed the hell through the past five threads. Didn't think they'd go that far back.

Plus, I was under the impression for a while that Art was PEG/JDodge. So that didn't help.

The search function in the ctrl+v thread gave 6 whole posts... 5 of which have an obvious link to a Mafia game related QT.

One of the first lines in Art's posts has an image url to Flameaxe's photobucket account. That's how I figured it out.
Why did you think it was PEG/JDodge?

Names I had: Jason, xtop, BB from the contest thread, Xalxe from being obvious (did no one else figure out that the rules didn't forbid public mentioning of the game?), RP for posting in the signups thread and figured I had a pretty decent shot of getting 3 names from the interest gouging thread (I got Ani and ProsecutorGodot)... Turns out my dilemma about whether to put mastermind or Cityelectric as the last name was unnecessary.

Also BB, I know you knew at least three names. And that is not counting Xalxe, who everyone should have had.

[inspiratieloos]

Just realized, the mole could have put in the entire member list and put the pot at -500,000 or something. Who cares if everyone knows who he is after that.

[inspiratieloos]

User name: inspire, insp, inspi, inspiratieloos (take your pick)
Colour: Maroon
Movie: Men in Black
Band: Green Day
Number: 36
Charm: A one penny coin
Mole: Xalxe

[inspiratieloos]

Are you saying I'm the mole for submitting last or for intentionally not answering a question?

When the challenge went up it was midnight where I live and I decided to do it this morning and I have a free day so I slept in, when I got on everyone else had already submitted.
If you'd read my GTKAS you'd know that I actually don't have a favourite band. (You also might know that I'm extremely lucky when it counts if you happen to have read the emergency shelter forum during the tigerpocalypse)

You're wrong.

[inspiratieloos]

Okay, I edited it. Now just the others that didn't answer questions too.

[inspiratieloos]

D3f, just pick the first random object that can be considered abnormal that your eye falls upon. It's what I did.

Fun fact: I'm normally also very unlucky (me in a casino is a riot... for everyone else), but when something important happens everything always works out perfectly.

[inspiratieloos]

I think to decide this is a fair manner, anyone that got a 0 or negative score on the first challenge should be ineligible, leaving...

Chevre: 3 Correct/0 Incorrect (+3)
Xalxe: 3 Correct/1 Incorrect (+2)
Blackberry: 2 Correct/0 Incorrect (+2)
D3f3nd3r: 3 Correct/2 Incorrect (+1)
inspiratieloos: 7 Correct/4 Incorrect (+3)

...

Since

inspiratieloos

&

Chevre

got the highest scores, I'm fine with choosing between them. As stated, I believe this is the fairest method of selection and will encourage ALL of us to perform our BEST in the future if we reward those that are actively trying to win challenges.

Don't forget Xalxe, who at least ensured that everyone knew/could have known that he was playing and thus probably earned ~€300 that way.

RP, it is about showing commitment to at least try, if the set a baseline that those that help to get the group ahead are in turn helped by the group then it will hopefully motivate people to help the group even if they even if they have a choice to do something that would be more directly in their own favour.

[inspiratieloos]

If I am a liar - why did I bluntly tell you to your face "Nevermind, I do not trust you." That seems like something an HONEST person would say, not a DISHONEST person.

Well, you're competing with the guy that got carte blanche to write the end scene of a game and actually wrote his completely unofficial ally in it as a winner.

[inspiratieloos]

I call bullshit, you have communicated with me and not offered me an alliance, not to mention, that doesn't make what you have done honest, you have communicated to 4 people to make alliances, i assume without telling them you are aligned with Xalxe/JDodge, that is dishonest.

Oh, I also PMed The Mole to let them know I know who they are.

[inspiratieloos]

Shouldn't you be happy if I get the exemption then? It means all of you have less chance of being eliminated.

[inspiratieloos]

Seriously. I mean, there's things like: inspiratieloos made a great comment that just went unnoticed. Maybe we did want to give the Mole the exemption? Even if we didn't want to do that, it would've been a good thing to possibly discuss? Why was it a bad idea? Or is it a good idea and everyone believes inspir is the Mole?

Simple, you give an exemption to either the mole or the MVP (if you can't get it yourself). The mole for personal advantage (less chance of being eliminated) at the cost of encouraging sabotage by normal players, the MVP to encourage good play at the cost of higher personal chance of elimination. If you happen to think that the mole is the MVP (which you suggested in your post) then you have all the advantages without the disadvantages.
Basically, the fact that i might be the mole in only an extra reason to give it to me.

[inspiratieloos]

Barring stupidity/obvious sabotage the estimated value doesn't change at all. Just the odds of me getting an exemption if you guys decide to screw me.

[inspiratieloos]

Not really. The odds only really change if you decide to open all 10 boxes.

[inspiratieloos]

Basically, as long as 2 people decide to not open a box no matter what what the rest does doesn't matter at all.

[inspiratieloos]

The real question is what you'll do if there is only one box left containing an exemption.

[inspiratieloos]

Why is anyone opening boxes anyway?

[inspiratieloos]

... You have no knowledge of statistics do you? There was never any chance of improving the estimated value on getting money, just on reducing the odds of me getting an exemption by following a very specific strategy.

[inspiratieloos]

Whatever you do, the total chance of earning money is either 0% or 40% (for every scenario where you increase the chance of getting money there is a scenario where you decrease the chance of money). Whatever you do the chance of me getting an exemption is either 0% or 60%.

So I'm wondering why anyone is picking up a box before discussing what you want to do.

Pedit: Nope, as a strategy it is flawed because you can't guarantee that the odds will improve. It's very similar to playing a Martingale system at roulette.

[inspiratieloos]

What are you talking about? Currently there is a 50% chance you'll get an Exemption, 50% we will get money. If you know statistics, you know that once an event happened, what the game started as no longer is the starting point. Where do you get 40/60 from?

Think of it like this, you opened 4 boxes, 3 were exemptions and 1 was money, that was good. But before you opened those boxes you might as well have opened 3 moneys and one exemption, putting your odds at 1/6. On average you would have opened 1.6 money boxes and 2.4 exemption boxes. Edit: Thus the 'strategy' of open 4 boxes doesn't do anything for the total odds.

If you are offered the choice between €50 and flipping 10 coins getting €10 for each heads and you decide on the flip you might gain €60, but you might just as well have gotten €40. There is only a single difference between these scenarios and I'm not going to say what it is on the off chance that someone who would otherwise screw me doesn't realise what it is.

[inspiratieloos]

Finally, someone figures it out.

[inspiratieloos]

Actually, I didn't consider that the mole knows what's in the boxes.

[inspiratieloos]

Why do you think every player can only pick one box?

So, in hindsight just letting whoever wanted to grab a box was pretty stupid.

[inspiratieloos]

Uhm, I think you might want to restart the game then, because obviously it becomes: If I'm the mole open all but one, if I'm not the mole open none (with 11/12 chance of me not being the mole, the right course of action is pretty obvious)

The fact that they could open all boxes and leave me with nothing (and the mole presumably knowing what's what) was the only relevant part of it in the first place.

[inspiratieloos]

If I'm the mole and you open 9 boxes, I have to take the tenth, which means I have no chance to sabotage and giving 40% odds of getting money instead of 0%. If I'm not the mole and you don't open any box, the mole can't take out a money box, which increases the chance from 33%to 40%.

[inspiratieloos]

9/10: nine or ten, 9/10: nine out of ten, 9/10: nine to 10.

[inspiratieloos]

It doesn't really matter any more anyway, high chance that the mole has already picked, could have picked exemption for WIFOM, etc. etc.

[inspiratieloos]

Dude, you can't pick all ten boxes, as long as you're not the mole you can't do anything to change the chance of me getting an exemption.... Except promoting the picking of boxes I suppose.

[inspiratieloos]

Dude, you can't pick all ten boxes, as long as you're not the mole you can't do anything to change the chance of me getting an exemption.... Except promoting the picking of boxes I suppose.

it does, if we open the last 2 exemptions then you don't get the exemption, thus we can change the chance of you getting an exemption

your point seems to be not knowing how math works

Not really, because the chance that you open 2 exemptions is exactly the same as the chance that you open 2 money boxes.

I'm talking about a strategy here, as in: We open a box and if it contains A we do X and if it contains B we do Y. While opening the boxes you changed the odds at that moment, you've never changed the total odds. Except that one time you let the mole pick a box (which you probably did by letting everyone pick without a plan), assuming he knows what's where, because he made an informed decision.

@Jason, if you open a box there is a 50% chance that you increase your odds to 2/3 and a 50% chance to reduce your odds to 1/3, if you let me pick a box now there is a 100% chance that the odds are 2/4 (or 1/2). Guess what: 50%*2/3+50%*1/3=0.5=100%*2/4.

TL;DR the

only

thing that matters in this whole game is whether you let the mole pick a box or not (which you guys probably did).

[inspiratieloos]

You... Fail.
0.5*2/3+0.3333*1/2+0.1666*0=0.5

At least BB has a valid argument.

[inspiratieloos]

Lets flip 2 coins, if both land on heads you give me €100, if not I'll give you €1. Look there is a 75% chance of a positive effect.
(Just for illustration purposes, in the boxes case the effect is zero, not negative)

[inspiratieloos]

Does it matter?

[inspiratieloos]

It's actually doesn't matter (unless of course The Mole who has info opens the money box, at which point he exposes himself, but bottom line being it doesn't matter if we keep opening boxes).

Art already stated that that was wrong, with 9/10 he meant 'nine out of ten' not 'nine or ten' (I think no one got that at first), you never had the possibility of opening all ten boxes.

Also, the estimated value of letting me pick a box now, assuming that I sabotage if I'm the mole, is higher than the estimated value if you pick them all up assuming that the mole will sabotage.

[inspiratieloos]

Also, I was incorrect in stating that "if there is only one money box left, we should stop opening boxes".

Strongly implies that you thought you had the ability to open the last box. If that was not what you meant, I was wrong about that.

[inspiratieloos]

Ah, my bad then.

[inspiratieloos]

Do I get a question list?

[inspiratieloos]

And here I was going to swoop in to save the day with my saved rules list and realise that you guys are done already.

Good job I guess.

[inspiratieloos]

Thanks SC.

1/60

[inspiratieloos]

Guys, someone is going to get an (attempt at an) exemption anyway, you might as well recruit to attempt to get us to 60.

Spam threads are your friend.

[inspiratieloos]

I think we decided as a group that virtual €10000 was not worth getting yelled at by the entire forum...

[inspiratieloos]

It's been tomorrow morning...