Asshat Mole 2012 - Episode 2 (Don't Forget the Rules)

[Blackberry]

Why is anyone opening boxes anyway?

because before you had good odds at winning an exemption

[inspiratieloos]

... You have no knowledge of statistics do you? There was never any chance of improving the estimated value on getting money, just on reducing the odds of me getting an exemption by following a very specific strategy.

[Blackberry]

... You have no knowledge of statistics do you? There was never any chance of improving the estimated value on getting money, just on reducing the odds of me getting an exemption by following a very specific strategy.

Who are you talking to and what are you referring to?

[Blackberry]

Actually, thinking about it, inspira has enlightented me that there is a specific strategy we should follow. As soon as we get the odds in FAVOR of us getting money (i.e., 3/5 chance of getting money, or 2/3 chance of getting money) then we should stop.

[inspiratieloos]

Whatever you do, the total chance of earning money is either 0% or 40% (for every scenario where you increase the chance of getting money there is a scenario where you decrease the chance of money). Whatever you do the chance of me getting an exemption is either 0% or 60%.

So I'm wondering why anyone is picking up a box before discussing what you want to do.

Pedit: Nope, as a strategy it is flawed because you can't guarantee that the odds will improve. It's very similar to playing a Martingale system at roulette.

[Blackberry]

Whatever you do, the total chance of earning money is either 0% or 40% (for every scenario where you increase the chance of getting money there is a scenario where you decrease the chance of money). Whatever you do the chance of me getting an exemption is either 0% or 60%.

So I'm wondering why anyone is picking up a box before discussing what you want to do.

Pedit: Nope, as a strategy it is flawed because you can't guarantee that the odds will improve. It's very similar to playing a Martingale system at roulette.

What are you talking about? Currently there is a 50% chance you'll get an Exemption, 50% we will get money. If you know statistics, you know that once an event happened, what the game started as no longer is the starting point. Where do you get 40/60 from?

[xtopherusD]

[redacted]

[Xalxe]

I have an idea. Numbers make my head hurt.

Open Box 2

[Blackberry]

I have an idea. Numbers make my head hurt.

Open Box 2

I approve of opening this box.

[Blackberry]

Please nobody open any boxes until Xalxe's is revealed.

[inspiratieloos]

What are you talking about? Currently there is a 50% chance you'll get an Exemption, 50% we will get money. If you know statistics, you know that once an event happened, what the game started as no longer is the starting point. Where do you get 40/60 from?

Think of it like this, you opened 4 boxes, 3 were exemptions and 1 was money, that was good. But before you opened those boxes you might as well have opened 3 moneys and one exemption, putting your odds at 1/6. On average you would have opened 1.6 money boxes and 2.4 exemption boxes. Edit: Thus the 'strategy' of open 4 boxes doesn't do anything for the total odds.

If you are offered the choice between €50 and flipping 10 coins getting €10 for each heads and you decide on the flip you might gain €60, but you might just as well have gotten €40. There is only a single difference between these scenarios and I'm not going to say what it is on the off chance that someone who would otherwise screw me doesn't realise what it is.

[Art Rooijakkers]

Box 2 contains

money

5 Boxes remain (3 exemptions, 2 money). 1,2,4,5,8 opened.

[Chevre]

inspiratie, I don't get all your fancy hoo-ha odds talk, but by opening boxes, we have a CHANCE of improving our odds for the choice that ultimately matters. Obviously, it's not going so well, but still...

[animorpherv1]

Open Box 3

[Art Rooijakkers]

Box 3 contains

an exemption

.

4 boxes remain (2 Exemptions, 2 money). 1,2,3,4,5,8 opened.

[Xalxe]

Idea: let's stop opening boxes now.

[Blackberry]

Whatever you do, the total chance of earning money is either 0% or 40%

(for every scenario where you increase the chance of getting money there is a scenario where you decrease the chance of money).

Whatever you do the chance of me getting an exemption is either 0% or 60%.

So I'm wondering why anyone is picking up a box before discussing what you want to do.

Pedit: Nope, as a strategy it is flawed because you can't guarantee that the odds will improve. It's very similar to playing a Martingale system at roulette.

Whatever you do, the total chance of earning money is either 0% or 40% (for every scenario where you increase the chance of getting money there is a scenario where you decrease the chance of money). Whatever you do the chance of me getting an exemption is either 0% or 60%.

So I'm wondering why anyone is picking up a box before discussing what you want to do.

Pedit: Nope, as a strategy it is flawed because you can't guarantee that the odds will improve. It's very similar to playing a Martingale system at roulette.

What are you talking about? Currently there is a 50% chance you'll get an Exemption, 50% we will get money. If you know statistics, you know that once an event happened,

what the game started as no longer is the starting point

. Where do you get 40/60 from?

inspiratie, I don't get all your fancy hoo-ha odds talk, but by opening boxes, we have a CHANCE of improving our odds for the choice that ultimately matters. Obviously, it's not going so well, but still...

Bottom line, inspria was trying to talk stats, what he mentions in bold has some validity to it, although not phrased correctly. However, the part I stated in bold is why his comments no longer have validity.

[Blackberry]

We should let Xtoph (my #1 mole suspect) open a Box and see what happens!

If it's Exemption, we STOP. Doot doot doot!

If it's money

we know who the Mole is

we can open another Box .

[Xalxe]

We should let Xtoph (my #1 mole suspect) open a Box and see what happens!

If it's Exemption, we STOP. Doot doot doot!

If it's money

we know who the Mole is

we can open another Box .

Alternatively, we could stop opening boxes and let inspie take the 50/50 shot.

[Blackberry]

We should let Xtoph (my #1 mole suspect) open a Box and see what happens!

If it's Exemption, we STOP. Doot doot doot!

If it's money

we know who the Mole is

we can open another Box .

Alternatively, we could stop opening boxes and let inspie take the 50/50 shot.

If inspira is the Mole, it isn't a 50/50 shot.

[Blackberry]

You may eliminate however many boxes from play that you wish.

Actually, you know, we could open 9 boxes.

And if the last box is an Exemption, we can open that box too

, leaving inspira with nothing.

[inspiratieloos]

Finally, someone figures it out.

[inspiratieloos]

Actually, I didn't consider that the mole knows what's in the boxes.

[animorpherv1]

I don't think he does. I'd say that might be a tad powerful.

[inspiratieloos]

Why do you think every player can only pick one box?

So, in hindsight just letting whoever wanted to grab a box was pretty stupid.